The effect of the year of wheat variety release on productivity and stability of performance on two organic and two non-organic farms

Nineteen wheat cultivars, released from 1934 to 2000, were grown at two organic and two non-organic sites in each of 3 years. Assessments included grain yield, grain protein concentration, protein yield, disease incidence and green leaf area. The superiority of each cultivar (the sum of the squares of the differences between its mean in each environment and the mean of the best cultivar there, divided by twice the number of environments; CS) was calculated for yield, grain protein concentration and protein yield, and ranked in each environment. The yield and grain protein concentration CS were more closely correlated with cultivar release date at the non-organic sites than at organic sites. This difference may be attributed to higher yield levels with larger differences among cultivars at the non-organic sites, rather than to improved stability (i.e. similar ranks) across sites. The significant difference in the correlation of protein yield CS and cultivar age between organic and non-organic sites would support evidence that the ability to take up mineral nitrogen (N) compared to soil N has been a component of the selection conditions of more modern cultivars (released after 1989). This is supported by assessment of green leaf area (GLA), where more modern cultivars in the non-organic systems had greater late-season GLA, a trend that was not identified in organic conditions. This effect could explain the poor correlation between age and protein yield CS in organic compared to non-organic conditions where modern cultivars are selected to benefit from later nitrogen (N) availability which includes the spring nitrogen applications tailored to coincide with peak crop demand. Under organic management, N release is largely based on the breakdown of fertility-building crops incorporated (ploughed-in) in the previous autumn. The release of nutrients from these residues is dependent on the soil conditions, which includes temperature and microbial populations, in addition to the potential leaching effect of high winter rainfall in the UK. In organic cereal crops, early resource capture is a major advantage for maximizing the utilization of nutrients from residue breakdown. It is concluded that selection of cultivars under conditions of high agrochemical inputs selects for cultivars that yield well under maximal conditions in terms of nutrient availability and pest, disease and weed control. The selection conditions for breeding have a tendency to select cultivars which perform relatively better in non-organic compared to organic systems.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Interpretation bias and anxiety in childhood: stability, specificity and longitudinal associations

Background: Biases in the interpretation of ambiguous material are central to cognitive models of anxiety; however, understanding of the association between interpretation and anxiety in childhood is limited. To address this, a prospective investigation of the stability and specificity of anxious cognitions and anxiety and the relationship between these factors was conducted. Method: Sixty-five children (10–11 years) from a community sample completed measures of self-reported anxiety, depression, and conduct problems, and responded to ambiguous stories at three time points over one-year. Results: Individual differences in biases in interpretation of ambiguity (specifically “anticipated distress” and “threat interpretation”) were stable over time. Furthermore, anticipated distress and threat interpretation were specifically associated with anxiety symptoms. Distress anticipation predicted change in anxiety symptoms over time. In contrast, anxiety scores predicted change in threat interpretation over time. Conclusions: The results suggest that different cognitive constructs may show different longitudinal links with anxiety. These preliminary findings extend research and theory on anxious cognitions and their link with anxiety in children, and suggest that these cognitive processes may be valuable targets for assessment and intervention.

Stability of pollination services decreases with isolation from natural areas despite honey bee visits

Sustainable agricultural landscapes by definition provide high magnitude and stability of ecosystem services, biodiversity and crop productivity. However, few studies have considered landscape effects on the stability of ecosystem services. We tested whether isolation from florally diverse natural and semi-natural areas reduces the spatial and temporal stability of flower-visitor richness and pollination services in crop fields. We synthesised data from 29 studies with contrasting biomes, crop species and pollinator communities. Stability of flower-visitor richness, visitation rate (all insects except honey bees) and fruit set all decreased with distance from natural areas. At 1 km from adjacent natural areas, spatial stability decreased by 25, 16 and 9% for richness, visitation and fruit set, respectively, while temporal stability decreased by 39% for richness and 13% for visitation. Mean richness, visitation and fruit set also decreased with isolation, by 34, 27 and 16% at 1 km respectively. In contrast, honey bee visitation did not change with isolation and represented > 25% of crop visits in 21 studies. Therefore, wild pollinators are relevant for crop productivity and stability even when honey bees are abundant. Policies to preserve and restore natural areas in agricultural landscapes should enhance levels and reliability of pollination services.

Comparison of heat stability of goat milk subjected to ultra-high temperature and in-container sterilisation

Goatmilk with and without stabilizing salt was subjected to in-container and UHTsterilization. Heatstability was assessed by measuring the amount of sediment in the milk. Without stabilizing salts, goatmilk usually produced less sediment when subjected to in-containersterilization compared with UHT processing. Addition of stabilizing salts up to 12.8 mM resulted in a progressive increase in sediment for in-containersterilization. In contrast, adding stabilizing salts at 6.4 mM initially reduced sediment formation in UHT-treated milk but addition of stabilizing salts at 12.8 mM increased sediment formation. Adding stabilizing salts to goatmilk increased pH, decreased ionic calcium, and increased ethanol stability. Adding up to 2 mM calcium chloride increased sediment formation more after UHT treatment than after in-containersterilization. These results suggest that no single mechanism or set of reactions causes milk to produce sediment during heating and that the favored pathway is different for UHT and in-containersterilization processes. Poor heatstability could be induced both by increasing ionic calcium and by decreasing it. Ethanol stability is not a good indicator of heatstability for in-containersterilization, but it may be for UHTsterilization, if milk does not enter the region of poor heatstability found at low concentrations of ionic calcium.

Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KM-GAP is based on the PRA model framework (Pöschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modelled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmo- spheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270 K is close to unity. Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for eðcient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

Kinetic energy analysis of the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to CO2-forced climate change

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) predict a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to anthropogenic forcing of climate, but there is a large model uncertainty in the magnitude of the predicted change. The weakening of the AMOC is generally understood to be the result of increased buoyancy input to the north Atlantic in a warmer climate, leading to reduced convection and deep water formation. Consistent with this idea, model analyses have shown empirical relationships between the AMOC and the meridional density gradient, but this link is not direct because the large-scale ocean circulation is essentially geostrophic, making currents and pressure gradients orthogonal. Analysis of the budget of kinetic energy (KE) instead of momentum has the advantage of excluding the dominant geostrophic balance. Diagnosis of the KE balance of the HadCM3 AOGCM and its low-resolution version FAMOUS shows that KE is supplied to the ocean by the wind and dissipated by viscous forces in the global mean of the steady-state control climate, and the circulation does work against the pressure-gradient force, mainly in the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic Ocean, however, the pressure-gradient force does work on the circulation, especially in the high-latitude regions of deep water formation. During CO2-forced climate change, we demonstrate a very good temporal correlation between the AMOC strength and the rate of KE generation by the pressure-gradient force in 50–70°N of the Atlantic Ocean in each of nine contemporary AOGCMs, supporting a buoyancy-driven interpretation of AMOC changes. To account for this, we describe a conceptual model, which offers an explanation of why AOGCMs with stronger overturning in the control climate tend to have a larger weakening under CO2 increase

The inter-temporal stability of real estate returns: an empirical investigation

This paper examines one of the central issues in the formulation of a sector/regional real estate portfolio strategy, i.e. whether the means, standard deviations and correlations between the returns are sufficiently stable over time to justify using ex-post measures as proxies of the ex-ante portfolio inputs required for MPT. To investigate these issues this study conducts a number of tests of the inter-temporal stability of the total returns of the 19 sector/regions in the UK of the IPDMI. The results of the analysis reveal that the theoretical gains in sector and or regional diversification, found in previous work, could not have been readily achieved in practice without almost perfect foresight on the part of an investor as means, standard deviations and correlations, varied markedly from period to period.

Duplex stability of DNA.DNA and DNA.RNA duplexes containing 3 '-S-phosphorothiolate linkages

3′-S-Phosphorothiolate (3′-SP) linkages have been incorporated into the DNA strand of both a DNA·RNA duplex and a DNA·DNA duplex. Thermal melting (Tm) studies established that this modification significantly stabilises the DNA·RNA duplex with an average increase in Tm of about 1.4 °C per modification. For two or three modifications, the increase in Tm was larger for an alternating, as compared to the contiguous, arrangement. For more than three modifications their arrangement had no effect on Tm. In contrast to the DNA·RNA duplex, the 3′-S-phosphorothiolate linkage destabilised the DNA·DNA duplex, irrespective of the arrangement of the 3′-SP linkages. The effect of ionic strength on duplex stability was similar for both the phosphorothiolate-substituted and the unmodified RNA·DNA duplexes. The results are discussed in terms of the influence that the sulfur atom has on the conformation of the furanose ring and comparisons are also drawn between the current study and those previously conducted with other modifications that have a similar conformational effect.

An improvement in clear-air turbulence forecasting based on spontaneous imbalance theory: the ULTURB algorithm

Recent research has shown that Lighthill–Ford spontaneous gravity wave generation theory, when applied to numerical model data, can help predict areas of clear-air turbulence. It is hypothesized that this is the case because spontaneously generated atmospheric gravity waves may initiate turbulence by locally modifying the stability and wind shear. As an improvement on the original research, this paper describes the creation of an ‘operational’ algorithm (ULTURB) with three modifications to the original method: (1) extending the altitude range for which the method is effective downward to the top of the boundary layer, (2) adding turbulent kinetic energy production from the environment to the locally produced turbulent kinetic energy production, and, (3) transforming turbulent kinetic energy dissipation to eddy dissipation rate, the turbulence metric becoming the worldwide ‘standard’. In a comparison of ULTURB with the original method and with the Graphical Turbulence Guidance second version (GTG2) automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level aircraft turbulence ULTURB performed better for all turbulence intensities. Since ULTURB, unlike GTG2, is founded on a self-consistent dynamical theory, it may offer forecasters better insight into the causes of the clear-air turbulence and may ultimately enhance its predictability.

On the stability radius of a generalized state-space system

The concept of “distance to instability” of a system matrix is generalized to system pencils which arise in descriptor (semistate) systems. Difficulties arise in the case of singular systems, because the pencil can be made unstable by an infinitesimal perturbation. It is necessary to measure the distance subject to restricted, or structured, perturbations. In this paper a suitable measure for the stability radius of a generalized state-space system is defined, and a computable expression for the distance to instability is derived for regular pencils of index less than or equal to one. For systems which are strongly controllable it is shown that this measure is related to the sensitivity of the poles of the system over all feedback matrices assigning the poles.