A multi-model evaluation of aerosols over South Asia: common problems and possible causes

Atmospheric pollution over South Asia attracts special attention due to its effects on regional climate, water cycle and human health. These effects are potentially growing owing to rising trends of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this study, the spatio-temporal aerosol distributions over South Asia from seven global aerosol models are evaluated against aerosol retrievals from NASA satellite sensors and ground-based measurements for the period of 2000–2007. Overall, substantial underestimations of aerosol loading over South Asia are found systematically in most model simulations. Averaged over the entire South Asia, the annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) is underestimated by a range 15 to 44% across models compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer), which is the lowest bound among various satellite AOD retrievals (from MISR, SeaWiFS (Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aqua and Terra). In particular during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods (i.e., October–January), when agricultural waste burning and anthropogenic emissions dominate, models fail to capture AOD and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Indo–Gangetic Plain (IGP) compared to ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sunphotometer measurements. The underestimations of aerosol loading in models generally occur in the lower troposphere (below 2 km) based on the comparisons of aerosol extinction profiles calculated by the models with those from Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. Furthermore, surface concentrations of all aerosol components (sulfate, nitrate, organic aerosol (OA) and black carbon (BC)) from the models are found much lower than in situ measurements in winter. Several possible causes for these common problems of underestimating aerosols in models during the post-monsoon and wintertime periods are identified: the aerosol hygroscopic growth and formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are suppressed in the models because relative humidity (RH) is biased far too low in the boundary layer and thus foggy conditions are poorly represented in current models, the nitrate aerosol is either missing or inadequately accounted for, and emissions from agricultural waste burning and biofuel usage are too low in the emission inventories. These common problems and possible causes found in multiple models point out directions for future model improvements in this important region.

Spontaneous facial mimicry is modulated by joint attention and autistic traits

Joint attention (JA) and spontaneous facial mimicry (SFM) are fundamental processes in social interactions, and they are closely related to empathic abilities. When tested independently, both of these processes have been usually observed to be atypical in individuals with autism spectrum conditions (ASC). However, it is not known how these processes interact with each other in relation to autistic traits. This study addresses this question by testing the impact of JA on SFM of happy faces using a truly interactive paradigm. Sixty-two neurotypical participants engaged in gaze-based social interaction with an anthropomorphic, gaze-contingent virtual agent. The agent either established JA by initiating eye contact or looked away, before looking at an object and expressing happiness or disgust. Eye tracking was used to make the agent's gaze behavior and facial actions contingent to the participants' gaze. SFM of happy expressions was measured by Electromyography (EMG) recording over the Zygomaticus Major muscle. Results showed that JA augments SFM in individuals with low compared with high autistic traits. These findings are in line with reports of reduced impact of JA on action imitation in individuals with ASC. Moreover, they suggest that investigating atypical interactions between empathic processes, instead of testing these processes individually, might be crucial to understanding the nature of social deficits in autism

A joint state and parameter estimation scheme for nonlinear dynamical systems

We present a novel algorithm for concurrent model state and parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. The new scheme uses ideas from three dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) together with the technique of state augmentation to estimate uncertain model parameters alongside the model state variables in a sequential filtering system. The method is relatively simple to implement and computationally inexpensive to run for large systems with relatively few parameters. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method via a series of identical twin experiments with three simple dynamical system models. The scheme is able to recover the parameter values to a good level of accuracy, even when observational data are noisy. We expect this new technique to be easily transferable to much larger models.

The 2014 hot, dry summer in Northeast Asia

Northeast Asia experienced a severe drought in summer 2014. Sea surface temperature forcing may have increased the risk of low precipitation, but model biases preclude reliable attribution to anthropogenic forcing.

Where were the monsoon regions and arid zones in Asia prior to the Tibetan Plateau uplift?

The impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoons and inland arid climates is an important but also controversial question in studies of paleoenvironmental change during the Cenozoic. In order to achieve a good understanding of the background for the formation of the Asian monsoons and arid environments, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the distribution of monsoon regions and arid zones in Asia before the plateau uplift. In this study, we discuss in detail the patterns of distribution of the Asian monsoon and arid regions before the plateau uplift on the basis of modeling results without topography from a global coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, compare our results with previous simulation studies and available biogeological data, and review the uncertainties in the current knowledge. Based on what we know at the moment, tropical monsoon climates existed south of 20°N in South and Southeast Asia before the plateau uplift, while the East Asian monsoon was entirely absent in the extratropics. These tropical monsoons mainly resulted from the seasonal shifts of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. There may have been a quasi-monsoon region in central-southern Siberia. Most of the arid regions in the Asian continent were limited to the latitudes of 20–40°N, corresponding to the range of the subtropical high pressure year-around. In the meantime, the present-day arid regions located in the relatively high latitudes in Central Asia were most likely absent before the plateau uplift. The main results from the above modeling analyses are qualitatively consistent with the available biogeological data. These results highlight the importance of the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau in the Cenozoic evolution of the Asian climate pattern of dry–wet conditions. Future studies should be focused on effects of the changes in land–sea distribution and atmospheric CO2 concentrations before and after the plateau uplift, and also on cross-comparisons between numerical simulations and geological evidence, so that a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of the Cenozoic paleoenvironments in Asia can be achieved.

Joint use of attribute importance rankings and non-attendance data in choice experiments

The joint and alternative uses of attribute non-attendance and importance ranking data within discrete choice experiments are investigated using data from Lebanon examining consumers’ preferences for safety certification in food. We find that both types of information; attribute non-attendance and importance rankings, improve estimates of respondent utility. We introduce a method of integrating both types of information simultaneously and find that this outperforms models where either importance ranking or non-attendance data are used alone. As in previous studies, stated non-attendance of attributes was not found to be consistent with respondents having zero marginal utility for those attributes

A review of drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia

The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in region-wide drought, including the two most severe of the last fifty years—1999-2001 and 2007-2008—with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, predictability of vegetation and crop yields, stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

Post-crisis regulatory reforms and bank performance: lessons from Asia

Based on a large dataset from eight Asian economies, we test the impact of post-crisis regulatory reforms on the performance of depository institutions in countries at different levels of financial development. We allow for technological heterogeneity and estimate a set of country-level stochastic cost frontiers followed by a deterministic bootstrapped meta-frontier to evaluate cost efficiency and cost technology. Our results support the view that liberalization policies have a positive impact on bank performance, while the reverse is true for prudential regulation policies. The removal of activities restrictions, bank privatization and foreign bank entry have a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. In contrast, prudential policies, which aim to protect the banking sector from excessive risk-taking, tend to adversely affect banks cost efficiency but not cost technology.

The impact of deregulation and re-regulation on bank efficiency: evidence from Asia

Following the 1997 crisis, banking sector reforms in Asia have been characterised by the emphasis on prudential regulation, associated with increased financial liberalisation. Using a panel data set of commercial banks from eight major Asian economies over the period 2001-2010, this study explores how the coexistence of liberalisation and prudential regulation affects banks’ cost characteristics. Given the presence of heterogeneity of technologies across countries, we use a stochastic frontier approach followed by the estimation of a deterministic meta-frontier to provide ‘true’ estimates of bank cost efficiency measures. Our results show that the liberalization of bank interest rates and the increase in foreign banks' presence have had a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. On the other hand, we find that prudential regulation might adversely affect bank cost performance. When designing an optimal regulatory framework, policy makers should combine policies which aim to foster financial stability without hindering financial intermediation.

Inexpensive footwear decreases joint loading in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis

Recent literature has highlighted that the flexibility of walking barefoot reduces overload in individuals with knee osteoarthritis (OA). As such, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of inexpensive, flexible, non-heeled footwear (Moleca (R)) as compared with a modern heeled shoes and walking barefoot on the knee adduction moment (KAM) during gait in elderly women with and without knee OA. The gait of 45 elderly women between 60 and 70 years of age was evaluated. Twenty-one had knee OR graded 2 or 3 according to Kellgren and Lawrence`s criteria, and 24 who had no OA comprised the control group (CG). The gait conditions were: barefoot, Moleca (R), and modern heeled shoes. Three-dimensional kinematics and ground reaction forces were measured to calculate KAM by inverse dynamics. For both groups, the Moleca (R) provided peak KAM and KAM impulse similar to barefoot walking. For the OA group, the Moleca (R) reduced KAM even more as compared to the barefoot condition during midstance. On the other hand, the modern heeled shoes increased this variable in both groups. Inexpensive, flexible, and non-heeled footwear provided loading on the knee joint similar to a barefoot gait and significant overload decreases in elderly women with and without knee OA, compared to modern heeled shoes. During midstance, the Moleca (R) also allowed greater reduction in the knee joint loads as compared to barefoot gait in elderly women with knee OA, with the further advantage of providing external foot protection during gait. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PAR(2) and Temporomandibular Joint Inflammation in the Rat

The proteinase-activated receptor 2 (PAR(2)) is a putative therapeutic target for arthritis. We hypothesized that the early pro-inflammatory effects secondary to its activation in the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) are mediated by neurogenic mechanisms. Immunofluorescence analysis revealed a high degree of neurons expressing PAR(2) in retrogradely labeled trigeminal ganglion neurons. Furthermore, PAR(2) immunoreactivity was observed in the lining layer of the TMJ, co-localizing with the neuronal marker PGP9.5 and substance-P-containing peripheral sensory nerve fibers. The intra-articular injection of PAR(2) agonists into the TMJ triggered a dose-dependent increase in plasma extravasation, neutrophil influx, and induction of mechanical allodynia. The pharmacological blockade of natural killer 1 (NK(1)) receptors abolished PAR(2)-induced plasma extravasation and inhibited neutrophil influx and mechanical allodynia. We conclude that PAR(2) activation is proinflammatory in the TMJ, through a neurogenic mechanism involving NK(1) receptors. This suggests that PAR(2) is an important component of innate neuro-immune response in the rat TMJ.

Differing effects of exogenous and endogenous hydrogen sulphide in carrageenan-induced knee joint synovitis in the rat

Background and purpose: Recent findings suggest that the noxious gas H(2)S is produced endogenously, and that physiological concentrations of H(2)S are able to modulate pain and inflammation in rodents. This study was undertaken to evaluate the ability of endogenous and exogenous H(2)S to modulate carrageenan-induced synovitis in the rat knee. Experimental approach: Synovitis was induced in Wistar rats by intra-articular injection of carrageenan into the knee joint. Sixty minutes prior to carrageenan injection, the rats were pretreated with indomethacin, an inhibitor of H(2)S formation (dl-propargylglycine) or an H(2)S donor [Lawesson`s reagent (LR)]. Key results: Injection of carrageenan evoked knee inflammation, pain as characterized by impaired gait, secondary tactile allodynia of the ipsilateral hindpaw, joint swelling, histological changes, inflammatory cell infiltration, increased synovial myeloperoxidase, protein nitrotyrosine residues, inducible NOS (iNOS) activity and NO production. Pretreatment with LR or indomethacin significantly attenuated the pain responses, and all the inflammatory and biochemical changes, except for the increased iNOS activity, NO production and 3-NT. Propargylglycine pretreatment potentiated synovial iNOS activity (and NO production), and enhanced macrophage infiltration, but had no effect on other inflammatory parameters. Conclusions and implications: Whereas exogenous H(2)S delivered to the knee joint can produce a significant anti-inflammatory and anti-nociceptive effect, locally produced H(2)S exerts little immunomodulatory effect. These data further support the development and use of H(2)S donors as potential alternatives (or complementary therapies) to the available anti-inflammatory compounds used for treatment of joint inflammation or relief of its symptoms.

Putative antinociceptive action of nitric oxide in the caudal part of the spinal trigeminal nucleus during chronic carrageenan-induced arthritis in the rat temporomandibular joint

In order to investigate a putative role for nitric oxide (NO) in the central nociceptive processing following carrageenan-induced arthritis in the rat temporomandibular joint (TMJ), we analyzed the immunoreactivity, gene expression and activity of nitric oxide synthases (NOS) in the caudal part of the spinal trigeminal nucleus (Sp5C) during the acute (24 h), chronic (15 days) and chronic-active (14 days-24 h) arthritis. In addition, evaluation of head-withdrawal threshold was carried out in all phases of arthritis under chronic inhibition of nNOS with the selective inhibitor 7-nitroindazole (7-NI). Neurons with nNOS-like immunoreactivity (nNOS-LI) were concentrated mainly in the lamina II of the Sp5C, showing no significant statistical difference during arthritis. Only a discrete percentage of nNOS-LI neurons expressed Fos immunoreactivity. The mRNA expression for both nNOS and endothelial nitric oxide synthases (eNOS) presented no noticeable differences among the groups. No expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) was detected in the Sp5C by either immunohistochemistry or reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR). Ca(2+)-dependent NOS activity in the ipsilateral Sp5C was significantly higher (108.3 +/- 49.2%; P<0.01) in animals during the chronic arthritis. Interestingly, this increased activity was completely abolished 24 h later, in the chronic-active arthritis. Finally, head-withdrawal threshold decreased significantly in the chronic arthritis in animals under 7-NI chronic inhibition. In conclusion, nNOS immunoreactivity and mRNA expression are stable in the Sp5C during TMJ arthritis evolution, but its activity significantly increases in the chronic-phases supporting an antinociceptive role of the nNOS as evidenced by pain threshold experiment. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.