The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 °C increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 °C or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

An unexpected photoadduct of N-carbomethoxymethylpyrrolidine with a chiral butenolide and benzophenone: X-ray structure and synthetic utility

The regio- and stereoselective photoinduced addition of N-carbomethoxymethylpyrrolidine to 5(S)-tert-butyldimethylsiloxymethyl-furan-2(5H)-one in the presence of benzophenone yields 3(R)-[N-(diphenylhydroxymethyl)carbo methoxymethylpyrrolidin-2′-yl]-4(S)-tert-butyldimethylsiloxymethyl)-butan-4-olides (epimeric at C-2′), and we report the X-ray structure of the major adduct together with its conversion into the 1-azabicyclo[4.3.0]-nonane ring system.

Evaluating mid-infrared spectroscopy as a new technique for predicting sensory texture attributes of processed cheese

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential application of mid-infrared spectroscopy for determination of selected sensory attributes in a range of experimentally manufactured processed cheese samples. This study also evaluates mid-infrared spectroscopy against other recently proposed techniques for predicting sensory texture attributes. Processed cheeses (n = 32) of varying compositions were manufactured on a pilot scale. After 2 and 4 wk of storage at 4 degrees C, mid-infrared spectra ( 640 to 4,000 cm(-1)) were recorded and samples were scored on a scale of 0 to 100 for 9 attributes using descriptive sensory analysis. Models were developed by partial least squares regression using raw and pretreated spectra. The mouth-coating and mass-forming models were improved by using a reduced spectral range ( 930 to 1,767 cm(-1)). The remaining attributes were most successfully modeled using a combined range ( 930 to 1,767 cm(-1) and 2,839 to 4,000 cm(-1)). The root mean square errors of cross-validation for the models were 7.4(firmness; range 65.3), 4.6 ( rubbery; range 41.7), 7.1 ( creamy; range 60.9), 5.1(chewy; range 43.3), 5.2(mouth-coating; range 37.4), 5.3 (fragmentable; range 51.0), 7.4 ( melting; range 69.3), and 3.1 (mass-forming; range 23.6). These models had a good practical utility. Model accuracy ranged from approximate quantitative predictions to excellent predictions ( range error ratio = 9.6). In general, the models compared favorably with previously reported instrumental texture models and near-infrared models, although the creamy, chewy, and melting models were slightly weaker than the previously reported near-infrared models. We concluded that mid-infrared spectroscopy could be successfully used for the nondestructive and objective assessment of processed cheese sensory quality..

The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations

We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption and blood antioxidants in the Caerphilly cohort of older men

Objective: To assess the number of portions of fruit and vegetables consumed daily by a large representative sample of older men, and to determine how blood antioxidant (vitamins E, A and carotenoids) concentrations vary with fruit and vegetable consumption. Design: Cross-sectional study of free-living men. Subjects: Men aged 55-69 y (dietary data, n=1957; blood data, n=1874) participating in Phase III (1989-1993) of the Caerphilly and Speedwell Collaborative Heart Disease Studies. Methods: Dietary data were obtained by semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire and blood samples were analysed for antioxidant vitamins. Men were subdivided into groups on the basis of portions per day of fruit and vegetables. Within these sub-groups, mean and 95% ranges of intakes and of blood antioxidant levels were obtained. Log transformations were performed where appropriate. Results: Only 4.3% of the men met the recommended target of five portions, while 33.3% of the men consumed one or fewer portions of fruit and vegetables per day. Those men who consumed the poorest diets with respect to fruit and vegetable intakes were more likely to be from lower socio-economic classes, drink more alcohol and be current smokers. Fruit and vegetable intake reflected plasma concentrations of antioxidants, which showed a dose-response relationship to frequency of consumption. Conclusions: Older men in the UK consume much less fruit and vegetables than current recommendations. Major difficulties are likely to be encountered in trying to meet a dietary target that is clearly much higher than the fruit and vegetable consumption of large sections of the older population in the UK.

Seasonal temperature variability of the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman Warm Period (2500–1600 BP) reconstructed from oxygen isotope ratios of limpet shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

Seasonal sea-surface temperaturevariability for the Neoglacial (3300–2500 BP) and Roman WarmPeriod (RWP; 2500–1600 BP), which correspond to the Bronze and Iron Ages, respectively, was estimated using oxygen isotope ratios obtained from high-resolution samples micromilled from radiocarbon-dated, archaeological limpet (Patella vulgata) shells. The coldest winter months recorded in Neoglacial shells averaged 6.6 ± 0.3 °C, and the warmest summer months averaged 14.7 ± 0.4 °C. One Neoglacial shell captured a year without a summer, which may have resulted from a dust veil from a volcanic eruption in the Katla volcanic system in Iceland. RWP shells record average winter and summer monthly temperatures of 6.3 ± 0.1 °C and 13.3 ± 0.3 °C, respectively. These results capture a cooling transition from the Neoglacial to RWP, which is further supported by earlier studies of pine history in Scotland, pollen type analyses in northeast Scotland, and European glacial events. The cooling transition observed at the boundary between the Neoglacial and RWP in our study also agrees with the abrupt climate deterioration at 2800–2700 BP (also referred to as the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition) and therefore may have been driven by decreased solar radiation and weakened North Atlantic Oscillation conditions.

Impact of the quantity and flavonoid content of fruits and vegetables on markers of intake in adults with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease: the FLAVURS Trial

Purpose Limited robust randomised controlled trials investigating fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake in people at risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) exist. We aimed to design and validate a dietary strategy of increasing flavonoid-rich versus flavonoid-poor F&V consumption on nutrient biomarker profile. Methods A parallel, randomised, controlled, dose–response dietary intervention study. Participants with a CVD relative risk of 1.5 assessed by risk scores were randomly assigned to one of the 3 groups: habitual (control, CT), high-flavonoid (HF) or low-flavonoid (LF) diets. While the CT group (n = 57) consumed their habitual diet throughout, the HF (n = 58) and LF (n = 59) groups sequentially increased their daily F&V intake by an additional 2, 4 and 6 portions for 6-week periods during the 18-week study. Results Compliance to target numbers and types of F&V was broadly met and verified by dietary records, and plasma and urinary biomarkers. Mean (±SEM) number of F&V portions/day consumed by the HF and LF groups at baseline (3.8 ± 0.3 and 3.4 ± 0.3), 6 weeks (6.3 ± 0.4 and 5.8 ± 0.3), 12 weeks (7.0 ± 0.3 and 6.8 ± 0.3) and 18 weeks (7.6 ± 0.4 and 8.1 ± 0.4), respectively, was similar at baseline yet higher than the CT group (3.9 ± 0.3, 4.3 ± 0.3, 4.6 ± 0.4, 4.5 ± 0.3) (P = 0.015). There was a dose-dependent increase in dietary and urinary flavonoids in the HF group, with no change in other groups (P = 0.0001). Significantly higher dietary intakes of folate (P = 0.035), non-starch polysaccharides (P = 0.001), vitamin C (P = 0.0001) and carotenoids (P = 0.0001) were observed in both intervention groups compared with CT, which were broadly supported by nutrient biomarker analysis. Conclusions The success of improving nutrient profile by active encouragement of F&V intake in an intervention study implies the need for a more hands-on public health approach.

Variability in fecal water genotoxicity, determined using the Comet assay, is independent of endogenous N-nitroso compound formation attributed to red meat consumption

Red meat consumption causes a dose-dependent increase in fecal apparent total N-nitroso compounds (ATNC). The genotoxic effects of these ATNCs were investigated using two different Comet assay protocols to determine the genotoxicity of fecal water samples. Fecal water samples were obtained from two studies of a total of 21 individuals fed diets containing different amounts of red meat, protein, heme, and iron. The first protocol incubated the samples with HT-29 cells for 5 min at 4 degrees C, whereas the second protocol used a longer exposure time of 30 min and a higher incubation temperature of 37 degrees C. DNA strand breaks were quantified by the tail moment (DNA in the comet tail multiplied by the comet tail length). The results of the two Comet assay protocols were significantly correlated (r = 0.35, P = 0.003), however, only the second protocol resulted in detectable levels of DNA damage. Inter-individual effects were variable and there was no effect on fecal water genotoxicity by diet (P > 0.20), mean transit time (P = 0.588), or weight (P = 0.705). However, there was a highly significant effect of age (P = 0.019). There was no significant correlation between concentrations of ATNCs in fecal homogenates and fecal water genotoxicity (r = 0.04, P = 0.74). ATNC levels were lower in fecal water samples (272 microg/kg) compared to that of fecal homogenate samples (895 microg/kg) (P < 0.0001). Failure to find dietary effects on fecal water genotoxicity may therefore be attributed to individual variability and low levels of ATNCs in fecal water samples.

Influence of diluent alkyl substitution on the extraction of Am(III) and Eu(III) by a 6,6'-bis(1,2,4-triazinyl)-2,2'-bipyridine ligand dissolved in alkylated cyclohexanone diluents

Several alkylated cyclohexanones were investigated as potential diluents for the selective extraction of Am(III) and Eu(III) from nitric acid solutions by the CyMe4-BTBP ligand. No significant extraction of either of the metal ions was observed for these diluents themselves. In the extractions from 1 M HNO3, 3-methylcyclohexanone and 4-methylcyclohexanone gave comparable results to cyclohexanone whereas in the extractions from 4 M HNO3, 2-methylcyclohexanone, 3-methylcyclohexanone and 4-methylcyclohexanone all gave superior results. For the monomethylated diluents, DAm and SFAm/Eu decreased in the order of alkyl substitution 2 > 4 ~ 3. However, alkyl substitution of cyclohexanone significantly slows down the extraction kinetics compared to cyclohexanone, and the position of alkyl substitution was found to play an important role in the solvents properties. 3-Methylcyclohexanone was identified as the most promising of the diluents.

Synthesis and properties of new Mo(II) complexes with N-heterocyclic and ferrocenyl ligands

New Mo(II) complexes with 2,2'-dipyridylamine (L1), [Mo(CH(3)CN)(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L1)]OTf (C1a) and [{MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L1)}(2)(4,4'-bipy)](PF(6))(2) (C1b), with {[bis(2-pyridyl)amino]carbonyl}ferrocene (L2), [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L2)] (C2), and with the new ligand N,N-bis(ferrocenecarbonyl)-2-aminopyridine (L3), [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L3)] (C3), were prepared and characterized by FTIR and (1)H and (13)C NMR spectroscopy. C1a, C1b, L3, and C2 were also structurally characterized by single crystal X-ray diffraction. The Mo(II) coordination sphere in all complexes features the facial arrangement of allyl and carbonyl ligands, with the axial isomer present in C1a and C2, and the equatorial in the binuclear C1b. In both C1a and C1b complexes, the L1 ligand is bonded to Mo(II) through the nitrogen atoms and the NH group is involved in hydrogen bonds. The X-ray single crystal structure of C2 shows that L2 is coordinated in a kappa(2)-N,N-bidentate chelating fashion. Complex C3 was characterized as [MoBr(eta(3)-C(3)H(5))(CO)(2)(L3)] with L3 acting as a kappa(2)-N,O-bidentate ligand, based on the spectroscopic data, complemented by DFT calculations. The electrochemical behavior of the monoferrocenyl and diferrocenyl ligands L2 and L3 has been studied together with that of their Mo(II) complexes C2 and C3. As much as possible, the nature of the different redox changes has been confirmed by spectrophotometric measurements. The nature of the frontier orbitals, namely the localization of the HOMO in Mo for both in C2 and C3, was determined by DFT studies.

Unprecedented coordination of dithiocarbimate in multinuclear and heteroleptic complexes

An uncommon coordination protocol induced by the p-tolylsulfonyl dithiocarbimate ligand (L) [L = p-CH(3)C(6)H(4)SO(2)N CS(2)(2-)] in conjunction with PPh(3) allowed the formation of novel homodimetallic, Cu(2)(PPh(3))(4)L (1), trinuclear heterometallic Cu(2)Ni(L)(2)(PPh(3))(4) (2) and heteroleptic complexes of general formula cis-[M(PPh(3))(2)L] [M = Pd(II) (3), Pt(II) (4)]. The complexes have been characterized by microanalysis, mass spectrometry, IR, (1)H, (13)C and (31)P NMR and electronic absorption spectra and single-crystal X-ray crystallography. 2 uniquely consists of square planar, trigonal planar and tetrahedral coordination spheres within the same molecule. In both heteroleptic complexes 3 and 4 the orientation of aromatic protons of PPh(3) ligand towards the Pd(II) and Pt(II) center reveals C-H center dot center dot center dot Pd and C-H center dot center dot center dot Pt rare intramolecular anagostic or preagostic interactions. These complexes exhibit photoluminescent properties in solution at room temperature arising mainly from intraligand charge transfer (ILCT) transitions. The assignment of electronic absorption bands has been corroborated by time dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) calculations. Complexes 1 and 2 with sigma(rt) values similar to 10(-6) S cm(-1) show semi-conductor properties in the temperature range 313-403 K whereas 3 and 4 exhibit insulating behaviour.

The abandoned mandatory OFR: a lost opportunity for SER?

Purpose – An important outcome of the UK Company Law Review (CLR) involved draft regulations for a mandatory operating and financial review (OFR). The unprecedented abandonment of this mandatory OFR in November 2005 threw debate about the genuine motivations underlying the CLR into disarray. This paper seeks to reinterpret the abandonment of a mandatory OFR using interview research. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a series of 24 interviews with companies from the FTSE100 between May and August 2004, prior to the abandonment. Findings – The interviews showed that the OFR was perceived as an appropriate vehicle for social and environmental reporting (SER). The interviewees considered that a mandatory OFR would provide a means of forcing SER into the mainstream and making it mandatory at a basic level. The interviews revealed that processes for the identification of material SER differ widely between organisations, ranging from embryonic to highly structured. Further, interviewees believed that directors had the final veto on inclusion of information. Despite directors' inclination to hide behind materiality as a means of avoiding SER, interviewees did not view the proposed mandatory OFR as “greenwash” but as a vehicle that would increase stakeholder confidence, as processes underlying the proposed OFR would be audited. Practical implications – The research implies that abandoning the mandatory OFR represented a lost opportunity for SER. Originality/value – The paper provides new evidence on the processes of materiality decision making in the SER area as well as strong endorsement of the mandatory OFR, contrary to the government turn-around.

A comparison of automated keyphrase extraction techniques and of automatic evaluation vs. human evaluation

Keyphrases are added to documents to help identify the areas of interest they contain. However, in a significant proportion of papers author selected keyphrases are not appropriate for the document they accompany: for instance, they can be classificatory rather than explanatory, or they are not updated when the focus of the paper changes. As such, automated methods for improving the use of keyphrases are needed, and various methods have been published. However, each method was evaluated using a different corpus, typically one relevant to the field of study of the method’s authors. This not only makes it difficult to incorporate the useful elements of algorithms in future work, but also makes comparing the results of each method inefficient and ineffective. This paper describes the work undertaken to compare five methods across a common baseline of corpora. The methods chosen were Term Frequency, Inverse Document Frequency, the C-Value, the NC-Value, and a Synonym based approach. These methods were analysed to evaluate performance and quality of results, and to provide a future benchmark. It is shown that Term Frequency and Inverse Document Frequency were the best algorithms, with the Synonym approach following them. Following these findings, a study was undertaken into the value of using human evaluators to judge the outputs. The Synonym method was compared to the original author keyphrases of the Reuters’ News Corpus. The findings show that authors of Reuters’ news articles provide good keyphrases but that more often than not they do not provide any keyphrases.