A comparison of input-output models: ghosh reduces to leontief (but "closing" ghosh makes it more plausible)

Ghosh's model is discussed in this paper under two alternative scenarios. In an open version we compare it with Leontief's model and prove that they reduce to each other under some specific productive conditions. We then move onto reconsidering Ghosh's model alleged implausibility and we do so reformulating the model to incorporate a closure rule. The closure solves, to some extent, the implausibility problem very clearly put out by Oosterhaven for then value-added is correctly computed and responsive to allocation changes resulting from supply shocks.

Entre autonomie et insertion. Les grands dispositifs de la politique de la jeunesse et de la famille en Allemagne

Les débats politiques actuels en Allemagne autour de la jeunesse sont marqués par deux problèmes majeurs : un taux de chômage élevé qui indique les limites du système d'apprentissage et un faible taux de natalité qui appelle à une réorientation profonde des politiques familiales. Ces deux problèmes sont analysés à partir d'éléments historiques et factuels. Dans le domaine de l'emploi, il est difficile de déceler une politique spécifique destinée exclusivement à la jeunesse en Allemagne, car toutes les mesures ont pour objectif de permettre aux personnes en difficultés d'obtenir un diplôme scolaire et/ou une formation professionnelle. En revanche, les jeunes d'origine étrangère sont moins qualifiés et rencontrent des difficultés d'insertion sur le marché de travail, ce qui a poussé le gouvernement à développer un grand nombre de mesures spécifiques. D'un autre côté, l'Allemagne présente un très faible niveau de diplômés de l'enseignement supérieur. Ce groupe est presque épargné par les problèmes de chômage. Face aux graves problèmes démographiques qui s'annoncent, l'Allemagne repense les politiques publiques en faveur de la famille, de la jeunesse et de la solidarité entre les générations. Les nouvelles mesures proposées par la ministre de la Famille (une allocation pour les parents d'enfants ayant entre 12 et 14 mois, et la création d'ici à 2013 de nouvelles places en crèche permettant de garder un tiers des enfants) se heurtent à des méfiances anciennes vis-à-vis de l'État. Finalement, les rapports entre les générations sont repensés par la création de lieux de vie communs qui sont un moyen de faire face à la modification des structures familiales et au surnombre de personnes âgées. Dans une première partie, les nouvelles mesures d'orientation destinées aux jeunes en difficulté sont analysées dans le contexte du marché de travail. La seconde partie est consacrée à une analyse des nouveaux dispositifs des politiques familiales.

Split sex ratios in the social Hymenoptera: a meta-analysis

The study of sex allocation in social Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) provides an excellent opportunity for testing kin-selection theory and studying conflict resolution. A queen-worker conflict over sex allocation is expected because workers are more related to sisters than to brothers, whereas queens are equally related to daughters and sons. If workers fully control sex allocation, split sex ratio theory predicts that colonies with relatively high or low relatedness asymmetry (the relatedness of workers to females divided by the relatedness of workers to males) should specialize in females or males, respectively. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the magnitude of adaptive sex allocation biasing by workers and degree of support for split sex ratio theory in the social Hymenoptera. Overall, variation in relatedness asymmetry (due to mate number or queen replacement) and variation in queen number (which also affects relatedness asymmetry in some conditions) explained 20.9% and 5% of the variance in sex allocation among colonies, respectively. These results show that workers often bias colony sex allocation in their favor as predicted by split sex ratio theory, even if their control is incomplete and a large part of the variation among colonies has other causes. The explanatory power of split sex ratio theory was close to that of local mate competition and local resource competition in the few species of social Hymenoptera where these factors apply. Hence, three of the most successful theories explaining quantitative variation in sex allocation are based on kin selection.

A UV signal of offspring condition mediates context-dependent parental favouritism.

As fitness returns during a breeding attempt are context-dependent, parents are predicted to bias their food allocation within a brood from poor towards good condition nestlings when environmental conditions deteriorate. We tested this prediction in the Alpine swift and the European starling, two migratory bird species, by modifying an ultraviolet (UV) visual signal of condition in nestlings and exploring how parents allocate food to their young as the season progresses. We show in both species that: (i) UV light reflected by the body skin of offspring positively correlates with their stature (i.e. body mass and skeletal size) and (ii) parental favouritism towards young with more UV reflective skin gradually increases as the season progresses. Early-breeding parents supplied food preferentially to UV pale (i.e. small stature) nestlings, whereas late-breeding parents favoured UV bright offspring (i.e. large stature). These results emphasize that parents use UV signals of offspring condition to adjust their feeding strategies depending on the ecological context.

Is it redistribution or centralization? On the determinants of government investment in infrastructure

The dilemma efficiency versus equity, together with political partisan interests, has received increasing attention to explain the territorial allocation of investments. However, centralization intended to introduce or reinforce hierarchization in the political system has not been object as of now of empirical analysis. Our main contribution to the literature is providing evidence that meta-political objectives related to the ordering of political power and administration influence regional investment. In this way, we find evidence that network mode’s (roads and railways) investment programs are influenced by the centralization strategy of investing near to the political capital, while investment effort in no-network modes (airports and ports) appears to be positively related to distance. Since investment in surface transportation infrastructures is much higher than that in airports and ports, and taken into account that regions surrounding the political capital are poorer than the average, we suggest that centralization rather than redistribution has been the driver for the concentration of public investment on these regions.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Conservation genetics and population monitoring of the Alpine Salamander (Salamandra Atra) :

SUMMARYIn the context of the biodiversity crisis, amphibians are experiencing the most severe worldwide decline of all vertebrates and are in urgent need of better management. Efficient conservation strategies rely on sound knowledge of the species biology and of the genetic and demographic processes that might impair their welfare. Nonetheless, these processes are poorly understood in amphibians. Delineating population boundaries remains consequently problematic for these species, while it is of critical importance to define adequate management units for conservation. In this study, our attention focused on the alpine salamander (Salamandra atra), a species that deserves much interest in terms of both conservation biology and evolution. This endemic alpine species shows peculiar life-history traits (viviparity, reduced activity period, slow maturation) and has a slow population turnover, which might be problematic for its persistence in a changing environment. Due to its elusive behaviour (individuals spend most of their time underground and are unavailable for sampling), dynamic processes of gene and individuals were poorly understood for that species. Consequently, its conservation status could hardly be reliably assessed. Similarly the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) also poses special challenges for conservation, as no clear demarcation of geographical populations exists and dispersal patterns are poorly known. Through a phylogeographic analysis, we first studied the evolutionary history of the alpine salamander to better document the distribution of the genetic diversity along its geographical range. This study highlighted the presence of multiple divergent lineages in Italy together with a clear genetic divergence between populations from Northern and Dinaric Alps. These signs of cryptic genetic differentiation, which are not accounted for by the current taxonomy of the species, should not be neglected for further definition of conservation units. In addition, our data supported glacial survival of the species in northern peripheral glacial réfugia and nunataks, a pattern rarely documented for long-lived species. Then, we evaluated the level of gene flow between populations at the local scale and tested for asymmetries in male versus female dispersal using both field-based (mark-recapture) and genetic approaches. This study revealed high level of gene flow between populations, which stems mainly from male dispersal. This corroborated the idea that salamanders are much better dispersers than hitherto thought and provided a well- supported example of male-biased dispersal in amphibians. In a third step, based on a mark- recapture survey, we addressed the problem of sampling unavailability in alpine salamanders and evaluated its impact on two monitoring methods. We showed that about three quarters of individuals were unavailable for sampling during sampling sessions, a proportion that can vary with climatic conditions. If not taken into account, these complexities would result in false assumptions on population trends and misdirect conservation efforts. Finally, regarding the daunting task of delineating management units, our attention was drawn on the fire salamander. We conducted a local population genetic study that revealed high levels of gene flow among sampling sites. Management units for this species should consequently be large. Interestingly, despite the presence of several landscape features often reported to act as barriers, genetic breaks occurred at unexpected places. This suggests that landscape features may rather have idiosyncratic effects on population structure. In conclusion, this work brought new insights on both genetic and demographic processes occurring in salamanders. The results suggest that some biological paradigms should be taken with caution when particular species are in focus. Species- specific studies remain thus fundamental for a better understanding of species evolution and conservation, particularly in the context of current global changes.RESUMEDans le contexte de la crise de la biodiversité actuelle, les amphibiens subissent le déclin le plus important de tous les vertébrés et ont urgemment besoin d'une meilleure protection. L'établissement de stratégies de conservation efficaces repose sur des connaissances solides de la biologie des espèces et des processus génétiques et démographiques pouvant menacer leur survie. Ces processus sont néanmoins encore peu étudiés chez les amphibiens.Dans cette étude, notre attention s'est portée sur la salamandre noire (Salamandra atra), une espèce endémique des Alpes dont les traits d'histoire de vie atypiques (viviparité, phase d'activité réduite, lent turnover des populations) pourraient la rendre très vulnérable face aux changements environnementaux. Par ailleurs, en raison de son comportement cryptique (les individus passent la plupart de leur temps sous terre) la dynamique des gènes et des individus est mal comprise chez cette espèce. Il est donc difficile d'évaluer son statut de conservation de manière fiable. La salamandre tachetée {Salamandra salamandra), pour qui il n'existe aucune démarcation géographique apparente des populations, pose également des problèmes en termes de gestion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié l'histoire évolutive de la salamandre noire afin de mieux décrire la distribution de sa diversité génétique au sein de son aire géographique. Cela a permis de mettre en évidence la présence de multiples lignées en Italie, ainsi qu'une nette divergence entre les populations du nord des Alpes et des Alpes dinariques. Ces résultats seront à prendre en compte lorsqu'il s'agira de définir des unités de conservation pour cette espèce. D'autre part, nos données soutiennent l'hypothèse d'une survie glaciaire dans des refuges nordiques périglaciaires ou dans des nunataks, fait rarement documenté pour une espèce longévive. Nous avons ensuite évalué la différentiation génétique des populations à l'échelle locale, ce qui a révélé d'important flux de gènes, ainsi qu'une asymétrie de dispersion en faveur des mâles. Ces résultats corroborent l'idée que les amphibiens dispersent mieux que ce que l'on pensait, et fournissent un exemple robuste de dispersion biaisée en faveur des mâles chez les amphibiens. Nous avons ensuite abordé le problème de Γ inaccessibilité des individus à la capture. Nous avons montré qu'environ trois quarts des individus sont inaccessibles lors des échantillonnages, une proportion qui peut varier en fonction des conditions climatiques. Ignoré, ce processus pourrait entraîner une mauvaise interprétation des fluctuations de populations ainsi qu'une mauvaise allocation des efforts de conservation. Concernant la définition d'unités de gestion pour la salamandre tachetée, nous avons pu mettre en évidence un flux de gènes important entre les sites échantillonnés. Les unités de gestion pour cette espèce devraient donc être étendues. Etonnamment, malgré la présence de nombreuses barrières potentielles au flux de gènes, les démarcations génétiques sont apparues à des endroits inattendus. En conclusion, ce travail a apporté une meilleure compréhension des processus génétiques et démographiques en action chez les salamandres. Les résultats suggèrent que certains paradigmes biologiques devraient être considérés avec précaution quand il s'agit de les appliquer à des espèces particulières. Les études spécifiques demeurent donc fondamentales pour une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution des espèces et leur conservation, tout particulièrement dans le contexte des changements globaux actuels.

Local and global consistency properties for student placement

In the context of resource allocation on the basis of priorities, Ergin (2002) identifies a necessary and sufficient condition on the priority structure such that the student-optimal stable mechanism satisfies a consistency principle. Ergin (2002) formulates consistency as a local property based on a fixed population of agents and fixed resources -- we refer to this condition as local consistency and to his condition on the priority structure as local acyclicity. We identify a related but stronger necessary and sufficient condition (unit acyclicity) on the priority structure such that the student-optimal stable mechanism satisfies a more standard global consistency property. Next, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the student-optimal stable mechanism to satisfy converse consistency principles. We identify a necessary and sufficient condition (local shift-freeness) on the priority structure such that the student-optimal stable mechanism satisfies local converse consistency. Interestingly, local acyclicity implies local shift-freeness and hence the student-optimal stable mechanism more frequently satisfies local converse consistency than local consistency. Finally, in order for the student-optimal stable mechanism to be globally conversely consistent, one again has to impose unit acyclicity on the priority structure. Hence, unit acyclicity is a necessary and sufficient condition on the priority structure for the student-optimal stable mechanism to satisfy global consistency or global converse consistency.

Misallocation of capital in a model of endogenous financial intermediation and insurance

In this paper we analyze productivity and welfare losses from capital misallocation in a general equilibrium model of occupational choice and endogenous financial intermediation. We study the effects of borrowing and lending, insurance, and risk sharing on the optimal allocation of resources. We find that financial markets together with general equilibrium effects have large impact on entrepreneurs' entry and firm-size decisions. Efficiency gains are increasing in the quality of financial markets, particularly in their ability to alleviate a financing constraint by providing insurance against idiosyncratic risk.

Atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Atrial arrhythmias increase disease burden in the general adult population. Adults with congenital heart lesions constitute a rapidly growing group of patients with cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that atrial arrhythmias increase with age and impair health outcomes in this population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based analysis of prevalence, lifetime risk, mortality, and morbidity associated with atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease from l983 to 2005. In 38 428 adults with congenital heart disease in 2005, 5812 had atrial arrhythmias. Overall, the 20-year risk of developing atrial arrhythmia was 7% in a 20-year-old subject and 38% in a 50-year-old subject. More than 50% of patients with severe congenital heart disease reaching age 18 years developed atrial arrhythmias by age 65 years. In patients with congenital heart disease, the hazard ratio of any adverse event in those with atrial arrhythmias compared with those without was 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 2.38 to 2.62; P<0.0001), with a near 50% increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.37 to 1.58; P<0.001), more than double the risk of morbidity (stroke or heart failure) (hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001), and 3 times the risk of cardiac interventions (hazard ratio, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.20; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 15% of adults with congenital heart disease. The lifetime incidence increased steadily with age and was associated with a doubling of the risk of adverse events. An increase in resource allocation should be anticipated to deal with this increasing burden.

A New open economy macroeconomic model with endogenous portfolio diversification and firms entry

This paper provides a new benchmark for the analysis of the international diversi…cation puzzle in a tractable new open economy macroeconomic model. Building on Cole and Obstfeld (1991) and Heathcote and Perri (2009), this model speci…es an equilibrium model of perfect risk sharing in incomplete markets, with endogenous portfolios and number of varieties. Equity home bias may not be a puzzle but a perfectly optimal allocation for hedging risk. In contrast to previous work, the model shows that: (i) optimal international portfolio diversi…cation is driven by home bias in capital goods, independently of home bias in consumption, and by the share of income accruing to labour. The model explains reasonably well the recent patterns of portfolio allocations in developed economies; and (ii) optimal portfolio shares are independent of market dynamics.

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

IPH Response to draft Northern Ireland Programme for Government 2011-15

On 17 November 2011, the First Minister and deputy First Minister published the draft Programme for Government 2011-2015 for consultation. IPH recognise that health is influenced by a wide range of social determinants, including economic, biological, environmental and cultural factors such as housing, the environment, income, employment and access to education and health services . Improvements to health can be achieved through a well-designed PfG which addresses the economy, creates safer communities and delivers efficient public services.  IPH welcome this opportunity to submit our views to the Northern Ireland Executive on the Draft Programme for Government 2011-15. Key points from the IPH response include: • Northern Ireland has a poor population health status in key areas when compared to other regions in the United Kingdom and in the Republic of Ireland. IPH support and particularly welcome allocation of an increased proportion of the Northern Ireland budget to public health. • IPH endorses the perspective in the PfG that good population health makes a central contribution to economic and social development.   However we would welcome greater acknowledgement of the links between social deprivation and health outcomes.  • IPH welcomes the adoption of a social determinants of health approach to improving population health and tackling health inequalities which is in line with current health policy and recent policy developments across the United Kingdom and internationally (See report of the Commission on the Social Determinants of Health (CSDH))

Environment-dependent microevolution in a Mediterranean pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

BACKGROUND: A central question for understanding the evolutionary responses of plant species to rapidly changing environments is the assessment of their potential for short-term (in one or a few generations) genetic change. In our study, we consider the case of Pinus pinaster Aiton (maritime pine), a widespread Mediterranean tree, and (i) test, under different experimental conditions (growth chamber and semi-natural), whether higher recruitment in the wild from the most successful mothers is due to better performance of their offspring; and (ii) evaluate genetic change in quantitative traits across generations at two different life stages (mature trees and seedlings) that are known to be under strong selection pressure in forest trees. RESULTS: Genetic control was high for most traits (h2 = 0.137-0.876) under the milder conditions of the growth chamber, but only for ontogenetic change (0.276), total height (0.415) and survival (0.719) under the more stressful semi-natural conditions. Significant phenotypic selection gradients were found in mature trees for traits related to seed quality (germination rate and number of empty seeds). Moreover, female relative reproductive success was significantly correlated with offspring performance for specific leaf area (SLA) in the growth chamber experiment, and stem mass fraction (SMF) in the experiment under semi-natural conditions, two adaptive traits related to abiotic stress-response in pines. Selection gradients based on genetic covariance of seedling traits and responses to selection at this stage involved traits related to biomass allocation (SMF) and growth (as decomposed by a Gompertz model) or delayed ontogenetic change, depending also on the testing environment. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the evidence of microevolutionary change in adaptive traits in maritime pine, directional or disruptive changes are difficult to predict due to variable selection at different life stages and environments. At mature-tree stages, higher female effective reproductive success can be explained by differences in their production of offspring (due to seed quality) and, to a lesser extent, by seemingly better adapted seedlings. Selection gradients and responses to selection for seedlings also differed across experimental conditions. The distinct processes involved at the two life stages (mature trees or seedlings) together with environment-specific responses advice caution when predicting likely evolutionary responses to environmental change in Mediterranean forest trees.

Organizational form and business performance

This project deals with the generation of profitability and the distribution of its benefits. Inspired by Davis (1947, 1955), we define profitability as the ratio of revenue to cost. Profitability is not as popular a measure of business financial performance as profit, the difference between revenue and cost. Regardless of its popularity, however, profitability is surely a useful financial performance measure. Our primary objective in this project is to identify the factors that generate change in profitability. One set of factors, which we refer to as sources, consists of changes in quantities and prices of outputs and inputs. Individual quantity changes aggregate to the overall impact of quantity change on profitability change, which we call productivity change. Individual price changes aggregate to the overall impact of price change on profitability change, which we call price recovery change. In this framework profitability change consists exclusively of productivity change and price recovery change. A second set of factors, which we refer to as drivers, consists of phenomena such as technical change, change in the efficiency of resource allocation, and the impact of economies of scale. The ability of management to harness these factors drives productivity change, which is one component of profitability change. Thus the term sources refers to quantities and prices of individual outputs and inputs, whose changes influence productivity change or price recovery change, either of which influences profitability change. The term drivers refers to phenomena related to technology and management that influence productivity change (but not price recovery change), and hence profitability change.