Profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements in the U.S. Treasury market

This thesis studies the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the U.S. Treasury market and investigates profitable opportunities around macroeconomic announcements using data from the eSpeed electronic trading platform. We investigate how macroeconomic announcements affect the return predictability of trade imbalance for the 2-year, 5-year, IO-year U.S. Treasury notes and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The goal of this thesis is to develop a methodology to identify informed trades and estimate the trade imbalance based on informed trades. We use the daily order book slope as a proxy for dispersion of beliefs among investors. Regression results in this thesis indicate that, on announcement days with a high dispersion of beliefs, daily trade imbalance estimated by informed trades significantly predicts returns on the following day. In addition, we develop a trade-imbalance based trading strategy conditional on dispersion of beliefs, informed trades, and announcement days. The trading strategy yields significantly positive net returns for the 2-year T-notes.

Market reactions to changes in the Nasdaq-100 Index membership

We examine stock market reactions around the Nasdaq-100 Index reconstitutions. We find a symmetric and transitory price response accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume on the effective date. Firms added to the Nasdaq-100 Index experience significant increases in institutional ownership, the number of market makers, and the number of shareholders. In contrast, firms removed from the index show significant decreases in the number of institutional shareholders. Additions to the Nasdaq-100 Index also show significant increases in four liquidity measures, whereas deletions demonstrate significant decreases in two liquidity measures. These changes in liquidity are related to the abnormal return on the announcement day. Taken together, the results suggest support for the price pressure, liquidity, and investor awareness hypotheses.

Royal Insurance Company Receipt - 1884

A receipt for Royal Insurance Company British and Foreign, dated 12 April 1884. The receipt reads" Royal Insurance Company British and Foreign Assets: Upwards of $27,000,000 No. 133848 Grimsby Agency, April 12th 1884 Received from Mrs. Adolphus Nelles the sum of Ten Dollars, being the premium for an Insurance against Loss or Damage by Fire, effected with this Company, to the extent of $1200.00 on Property described in Application of this date, for 36 months, subject to the "Statutory" Conditions (endorsed hereon) of the Policy which will be issued within Thirty Days unless the Application is declined within that period, in which case the amount received will be refunded, less the Premium for the time so insured. Premium $9.00 this receipt not valid unless countersigned by N.V. Hare Sub-Agt. Countersigned by David McLellan Agent.

Fire Insurance - Cowan & Parks 1851

A fire insurance policy in the amount of one thousand dollars through Aetna Insurance Company of Utica, New York. The cost of twenty two dollars and twenty five cents would give them a one year insurance policy from August 1851 through August 1852.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN), Market Volatility, and High-Frequency Liquidity

We assess the predictive ability of three VPIN metrics on the basis of two highly volatile market events of China, and examine the association between VPIN and toxic-induced volatility through conditional probability analysis and multiple regression. We examine the dynamic relationship on VPIN and high-frequency liquidity using Vector Auto-Regression models, Granger Causality tests, and impulse response analysis. Our results suggest that Bulk Volume VPIN has the best risk-warning effect among major VPIN metrics. VPIN has a positive association with market volatility induced by toxic information flow. Most importantly, we document a positive feedback effect between VPIN and high-frequency liquidity, where a negative liquidity shock boosts up VPIN, which, in turn, leads to further liquidity drain. Our study provides empirical evidence that reflects an intrinsic game between informed traders and market makers when facing toxic information in the high-frequency trading world.

Macroeconomic News and LOB in Foreign Exchange ECN Market

We investigate the macroeconomic news effect on the dynamics of the limit order books (LOB) for euro-dollar ECN market in different economic states between Jan. 2006 to Dec. 2009. Using a VAR-STR model on the news surprise, pure news, aggregated good and bad news, we show that news effects on the LOB dynamics vary in different states of economy. The LOB dynamics are measured by depth, spread, slope and volatility. In contract to slope and volatility, depth and spread strongly respond to news surprise and pure news during recession and expansion. These characteristics are more affected by aggregated good and bad news during expansion. News effects are robust to alternative characteristic measures, the different sides of the LOB and the different levels in the LOB.

Insurance Policy issued to William Woodruff

Insurance Policy issued by the Columbus Insurance Company of Columbus, Ohio to William Woodruff of St. Davids, Ontario on a detached brick building situated on Lot no. 6 on St. Paul Street, St. Catharines. This is fire policy no. 113, book 1, folio 112, April 11, 1884.

Certificate for Eight Shares of Capital Stock in Insurance Investments Limited

Certificate for 8 shares of capital stock in Insurance Investments Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Aug. 12, 1929.

Certificate for Five and Four Fifths Shares of Capital Stock in Insurance Investments Limited

Certificate for 5 4/5 shares of capital stock in Insurance Investments Limited to Hamilton K. Woodruff, Jan. 15, 1930.

Cogswell, Maria, includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Insurance Policy, Mortgage Loan Envelope

Cogswell, Maria, includes: Application for loan on Real Estate, Feb. 20, 1882; Insurance Policy no. 2199780 from the Royal Insurance Company of Liverpool, March 17, 1887 and Mortgage Loan Envelope for mortgage no. 1535 from March 1, 1882 – March 1, 1887.

Printed blank from Frank Pearce and Co. Shipping and Insurance Agents

Printed blank from Frank Pearce and Co. Shipping and Insurance Agents regarding the bill of landing for the porcelain cask, Oct. 26, 1876.

Insurance policy (tourists’ policy) to insure Annie L. Woodruff for 1 year

Insurance policy (tourists’ policy) to insure Annie L. Woodruff for 1 year. This is accompanied by an envelope, Oct. 21, 1921.

Letter to Mr. Summer and Mr. Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Insurance Company of St. Catharines

Letter to Mr. Summer and Mr. Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Insurance Company of St. Catharines regarding an assessment of 4 % on the premium notes of this company. This is signed by Mr. Arnold, secretary of N.D. Mutual F. Insurance Company, Aug. 9, 1848.

Letter to Robert Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Fire Insurance Company

Letter to Robert Nelles from the Office of the N.D. Mutual Fire Insurance Company regarding an assessment of 5% on the premium notes of this company. This is signed by Mr. Arnold, secretary of the N.D. Mutual F. Insurance Company, Dec. 15, 1849.