Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Development of Non-Petroleum Based Binders for Use in Flexible Pavements, TR-594, 2010

Most bituminous adhesives or binders that are used for pavement materials are derived primarily from fossil fuels. With petroleum oil reserves becoming depleted and the drive to establish a bio-based economy, there is a push to produce binders from alternative sources, particularly from biorenewable resources. However, until now, no research has studied the applicability of utilizing bio-oils as a bitumen replacement (100% replacement) in the pavement industry. The main objective of this research was to test various properties of bio-oils in order to determine the applicability of using bio-oils as binders in the pavement industry. The overall conclusions about the applicability of using bio-oils as bio-binders in the pavement industry can be summarized as follows: 1. Bio-oils cannot be used as bio-binders/pavement materials without any heat pre-treatment/upgrading procedure. 2. Current testing standards and specifications, especially Superpave procedures, should be modified to comply with the properties of bio-binders. 3. The temperature range of the viscous behavior for bio-oils may be lower than that of bitumen binders by about 30°–40° C. 4. The rheological properties of the unmodified bio-binders vary in comparison to bitumen binders, but the rheological properties of these modified bio-binders change significantly upon adding polymer modifiers. 5. The high-temperature performance grade for the developed bio-binders may not vary significantly from that of the bitumen binders, but the low-temperature performance grade may vary significantly

Genetic differentiation and zoogeography of Asian Suncus murinus (Mammalia: Soricidae)

Protein electrophoresis was used to assess the phylogenetic relationships of populations of the phenotypically variable Asian house shrew Suncus murinus. These populations represent a sample of both commensal and wild forms. They were compared to another taxon, S. montanus, which was formerly considered conspecific with S. murinus. Suncus dayi was used as an outgroup in all phylogenetic reconstructions. Within the S. murinus lineage, the allozyme data show very low levels of genetic differentiation among both wild and commensal Southeast Asian and Japanese samples when compared to the Indian populations. This pattern is consistent with the classical hypothesis of a recent introduction by man in Eastern Asia. The higher genetic diversity found within S. murinus from India, as well as previous mitochondrial and karyological results suggest that this area is the probable centre of origin for the species. Although the lack of gene flow between S. murinus and S. montanus is clearly established in an area of sympatry in Southern India, one Asian house shrew sampled in Nepal was more closely related to S. montanus. This could either reflect the retention of an ancestral polymorphism, or result from a hybridization episode between S. murinus and S. montanus. Similar conclusions were also suggested in mitochondrial DNA studies dealing with animals sampled in the Northern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Clearly, further data on Suncus from this area are needed in order to assess these hypotheses. (C) 1995 The Linnean Society of London

Structure of the ovaries of the Nimba otter shrew, Micropotamogale lamottei, and the Madagascar hedgehog tenrec, Echinops telfairi.

The otter shrews are members of the subfamily Potamogalinae within the family Tenrecidae. No description of the ovaries of any member of this subfamily has been published previously. The lesser hedgehog tenrec, Echinops telfairi, is a member of the subfamily Tenrecinae of the same family and, although its ovaries have not been described, other members of this subfamily have been shown to have ovaries with non-antral follicles. Examination of these two species illustrated that non-antral follicles were characteristic of the ovaries of both species, as was clefting and lobulation of the ovaries. Juvenile otter shrews range from those with only small follicles in the cortex to those with 300- to 400-microm follicles similar to those seen in non-pregnant and pregnant adults. As in other species, most of the growth of the oocyte occurred when follicles had one to two layers of granulosa cells. When larger follicles became atretic in the Nimba otter shrew, hypertrophy of the theca interna produced nodules of glandular interstitial tissue. In the tenrec, the hypertrophying theca interna cells in most large follicles appeared to undergo degeneration. Both species had some follicular fluid in the intercellular spaces between the more peripheral granulosa cells. It is suggested that this fluid could aid in separation of the cumulus from the remaining granulosa at ovulation. The protruding follicles in lobules and absence of a tunica albuginea might also facilitate ovulation of non-antral follicles. Ovaries with a thin-absent tunica albuginea and follicles with small-absent antra are widespread within both the Eulipotyphla and in the Afrosoricida, suggesting that such features may represent a primitive condition in ovarian development. Lobulated and deeply crypted ovaries are found in both groups but are not as common in the Eulipotyphla making inclusion of this feature as primitive more speculative.

Algunos datos paleoecológicos y tafonómicos de un yacimiento pliocénico del Ampurdán

The fossiliferous beds of the 'Cementerio de Ciurana (Gerona) ', have been studied from Taphonomy and Paleoeco.. logy viewpoints. The mode of formation of the fossil assem.. blages hardly implicates transport and the vertical successiori seems to represent a regressive sequence from former normal marine conditions.

Correlación bioestratigráfica entre las sucesiones miocénicas marinas de Sant Pau d'0rdal y Sant Llorenc d'Hortons (Depresión del Vallès - Penedès, Barcelona)

En base a los moluscos fósiles y a criterios sedimentológicos, se realiza una reconstrucción paleoambiental del sector de Sant Pau d'Ordal y de La Pedrera de Sant Llorenq d'Hortons y se deduce la equivalencia lateral de ambas localidades, a las que se atribuye una edad Langhiense-Serravaliense inferior. La presencia del pterópodo Vaginella austriaca, KITTL citado por primera vez en diversos yacimientos del Penedis, permite afirmar que durante este periodo existió una buena comunicación entre el golfo del Penedes y el mar abierto.

Señales de depredación en los Gastropoda procedentes de un yacimiento pliocénico de Molins de Rei (Barcelona). Implicaciones paleoecológicas

En la presente nota se da una lista ampliada de la fauna malacológica del yacimiento pliocénico de la Plaça de les Bruixes (Molis de Rei, Barcelona). Los fenómenos de coacción que se describen nos muestran su utilidad a la hora de definir las condiciones ambientales y paleogeográficas del lugar donde habita la fauna.

New stratigraphic data from the Lower Penninic between the Adula nappe and the Gotthard massif and consequences for the tectonics and the paleogeography of the Central Alps

New stratigraphic data along a profile from the Helvetic Gotthard massif to the remnants of the North Penninic basin in eastern Ticino and Graubunden are presented. The stratigraphic record together with existing geochemical and structural data, motivate a new interpretation of the fossil European distal margin. We introduce a new group of Triassic facies, the North-Penninic-Triassic (NPT), which is characterised by the Ladinian ``dolomie bicolori''. The NPT was located in-between the Brianconnais carbonate platform and the Helvetic lands. The observed horizontal transition, coupled with the stratigraphic superposition of a Helvetic Liassic on a Briaconnais Triassic in the Luzzone-Terri nappe, links, prior to Jurassic rifting, the Brianconnais paleogeographic domain at the Helvetic margin, south of the Gotthard. Our observations suggest that the Jurassic rifting separated the Brianconnais domain from the Helvetic margin by complex and protracted extension. The syn-rift stratigraphic record in the Adula nappe and surroundings suggests the presence of a diffuse rising area with only moderately subsiding basins above a thinned continental and proto-oceanic crust. Strong subsidence occurred in a second phase following protracted extension and the resulting delamination of the rising area. The stratigraphic coherency in the Adula's Mesozoic questions the idea of a lithospheric m lange in the eclogitic Adula nappe, which is more likely to be a coherent alpine tectonic unit. The structural and stratigraphic observations in the Piz Terri-Lunschania zone suggest the activity of syn-rift detachments. During the alpine collision these faults are reactivated (and inverted) and played a major role in allowing the Adula subduction, the ``Penninic Thrust'' above it and in creating the structural complexity of the Central Alps. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward partial redirection of energy policy for responsible development

This paper addresses the surprising lack of quality control on the analysis and selection on energy policies observable in the last decades. As an example, we discuss the delusional idea that it is possible to replace fossil energy with large scale ethanol production from agricultural crops. But if large scale ethanol production is not practical in energetic terms, why huge amount of money has been invested in it and is it still being invested? In order to answer this question we introduce two concepts useful to frame, in general terms, the predicament of quality control in science: (i) the concept of “granfalloons” proposed by K. Vonnegut (1963) flagging the danger of the formation of “crusades to save the world” void of real meaning. These granfalloons are often used by powerful lobbies to distort policy decisions; and (ii) the concept of Post-Normal science by S. Funtowicz and J. Ravetz (1990) indicating a standard predicament faced by science when producing information for governance. When mixing together uncertainty, multiple-scale and legitimate but contrasting views it becomes impossible to deal with complex issue using the conventional scientific approach based on reductionism. We finally discuss the implications of a different approach to the assessment of alternative energy sources by introducing the concept of Promethean technology.

Molecular dating, evolutionary rates, and the age of the grasses.

Many questions in evolutionary biology require an estimate of divergence times but, for groups with a sparse fossil record, such estimates rely heavily on molecular dating methods. The accuracy of these methods depends on both an adequate underlying model and the appropriate implementation of fossil evidence as calibration points. We explore the effect of these in Poaceae (grasses), a diverse plant lineage with a very limited fossil record, focusing particularly on dating the early divergences in the group. We show that molecular dating based on a data set of plastid markers is strongly dependent on the model assumptions. In particular, an acceleration of evolutionary rates at the base of Poaceae followed by a deceleration in the descendants strongly biases methods that assume an autocorrelation of rates. This problem can be circumvented by using markers that have lower rate variation, and we show that phylogenetic markers extracted from complete nuclear genomes can be a useful complement to the more commonly used plastid markers. However, estimates of divergence times remain strongly affected by different implementations of fossil calibration points. Analyses calibrated with only macrofossils lead to estimates for the age of core Poaceae ∼51-55 Ma, but the inclusion of microfossil evidence pushes this age to 74-82 Ma and leads to lower estimated evolutionary rates in grasses. These results emphasize the importance of considering markers from multiple genomes and alternative fossil placements when addressing evolutionary issues that depend on ages estimated for important groups.

Constraints on Miocene oceanography and climate in the Western and Central Paratethys: O-, Sr-, and Nd-isotope compositions of marine fish and mammal remains

The Paratethys evolved as a marginal sea during the Alpine-Himalayan orogeny in the Oligo-Miocene. Sediments from the northern Alpine Molasse Basin, the Vienna, and the Pannonian Basins located in the western and central part of the Paratethys thus provide unique information on regional changes in climate and oceanography during a period of active Alpine uplift Oxygen isotope compositions of well-preserved phosphatic fossils recovered from the sediments support deposition under sub-tropical to warm-temperate climate with water temperatures of 14 to 28 degrees C for the Miocene. delta(18)O values of fossil shark teeth are similar to those reported for other Miocene marine sections and, using the best available estimates of their biostratigraphic age, show a variation until the end of the Badenian similar to that reported for composite global record. The (87)Sr/(86)Sr isotope ratios of the fossils follow the global Miocene seawater trend, albeit with a much larger scatter. The deviations of (87)Sr/(86)Sr in the samples from the well-constrained seawater curve are interpreted as due to local input of terrestrially-derived Sr. Contribution of local sources is also reflected in the epsilon(Nd) values, consistent with input from ancient crystalline rocks (e.g., Bohemian Massif and/or Mesozoic sediments with epsilon(Nd) < -9. On the other hand, there is evidence for input from areas with Neogene volcanism as suggested by samples with elevated epsilon(Nd) values >-7. Excluding samples showing local influence on the water column, an average epsilon(Nd) value of -7.9 +/- 0.5 may be inferred for the Miocene Paratethys. This value is indistinguishable from the epsilon(Nd) value of the contemporaneous Indian Ocean, supporting a dominant role of this ocean in the Western and Central Paratethys. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Distributed Energy Production in the North-West Region of Russia

The energy system of Russia is the world's fourth largest measured by installed power. The largest are that of the the United States of America, China and Japan. After 1990, the electricity consumption decreased as a result of the Russian industry crisis. The vivid economic growth during the latest few years explains the new increase in the demand for energy resources within the State. In 2005 the consumption of electricity achieved the maximum level of 1990 and continues to growth. In the 1980's, the renewal of power facilities was already very slow and practically stopped in the 1990's. At present, the energy system can be very much characterized as outdated, inefficient and uneconomic because of the old equipment, non-effective structure and large losses in the transmission lines. The aim of Russia's energy reform, which was started in 2001, is to achieve a market based energy policy by 2011. This would thus remove the significantly state-controlled monopoly in Russia's energy policy. The reform will stimulateto decrease losses, improve the energy system and employ energy-saving technologies. The Russian energy system today is still based on the use of fossil fuels, and it almost totally ignores the efficient use of renewable sources such as wind, solar, small hydro and biomass, despite of their significant resources in Russia. The main target of this project is to consider opportunities to apply renewable energy production in the North-West Federal Region of Russia to partly solve the above mentioned problems in the energy system.

Carbon-isotope stratigraphy of the Liesberg Beds Member (Oxfordian, Swiss Jura) using echinoids and crinoids

The Liesberg Beds form the transition between the lower Oxfordian dark coloured marls (Renggeri Member and the Terrain a Chailles Member) and the middle Oxfordian reefal limestones (St-Ursanne Formation). Both lithofacies and biofacies are diverse and evolve rapidly up-section. Stable isotope studies of whole-rock samples are therefore excluded. In search for a convenient isotopic marker, we measured carbon isotope compositions of several fossil groups and chose crinoid stems of Millericrinus spp and echinoid spines of Paracidaris spp because of their abundance throughout the section and the small variations of delta(13)C within one fossil and between fossils from the same stratigraphic level. The delta(13)C values of echinoderms largely reflect earliest diagenetic conditions at the seawatersediment interface. The porous stereome structure secreted of high Mg-calcite by echinoderms has a high reactive surface/volume ratio, which triggers the precipitation of very early syntaxial cements. In the four studied sections reproducible carbon isotope shifts were observed both for Millericrinus spp stems and Paracidaris spp spines. A negative delta(13)C shift of 1-1.5 parts per thousand was observed near the base of the section, just above the transition from Terrain a Chailles Member, where the first corals occur. In the middle and upper part of the four sections, characterised by a stepwise increase of corals and the macrofossils, a positive delta(13)C Shift of about 2 parts per thousand was observed. Despite the highly variable lithologic composition of the Liesberg Beds;Member, carbon isotope shifts seem to be consistent and warrant an interpretation as an original signal, controlled by the isotopic composition of dissolved carbonic acid in seawater. We explain the heavy delta(13)C values (approximate to 2-2.3 parts per thousand) in the lower Liesberg Beds as a transition from an oxygen-limited environment (Terrain a Chailles Member) to the Liesberg Beds Member. The lowest delta(13)C values (approximate to 1-1.5 parts per thousand) correspond to a large input of dissolved nutrients to the platform under oxidizing conditions. The ensuing positive shift (between 2.5 and 3.5 parts per thousand), however, seems to correspond to a general trend of opening up of the platform and connection to open marine waters. Positive delta(13)C values in the upper Liesberg Beds is interpreted as a result of important accelareted extraction of organic carbon from the ocean reservoir, that occurred possibly during periods of warm and humid climate.

Organisation of genetic variation in multinucleate arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Les Champignons Endomycorhiziens Arbusculaires (CEA) forment une symbiose racinaire avec environ 80% des espèces connues de plantes vasculaires. Ils occupent une position écologique très importante liée aux bénéfices qu'ils confèrent aux plantes. Des études moléculaires effectuées sur des gènes ribosomaux ont révélé un très grand polymorphisme, tant à l'intérieur des espèces qu'entre celles-ci. Ces champignons étant coenocytiques et multinucléés, l'organisation de cette variabilité génétique intraspécifique pourrait avoir différentes origines. Ce travail se propose d'examiner l'organisation et l'évolution de cette variabilité. Sur la base de fossiles, l'existence des CEA remonte à au moins 450 millions d'années. Cette symbiose peut donc être considérée comme ancienne. Les premières données moléculaires n'indiquant pas de reproduction sexuée, une hypothèse fut élaborée stipulant que les CEA seraient des asexués ancestraux. La première partie de cette thèse (chapitre 2) met en évidence l'existence de recombinaison dans différents CEA mais montre également que celle-ci est insuffisante pour purger les mutations accumulées. La reproduction étant essentiellement asexuée, on peut prédire que les nombreux noyaux ont probablement divergé génétiquement. En collaboration avec M. Hijri nous avons pu vérifier cette hypothèse (chapitre 2). Dans le chapitre 3 j'ai cherché à comprendre si le polymorphisme était également présent dans une population naturelle du CEA Glomus intraradices au niveau intraspécifique, ce qui n'avait encore jamais été examiné. En comparant les empreintes génétiques d'individus obtenus chacun à partir d'une spore mise en culture, j'ai clairement démontré que d'importantes différences génétiques existent entre ceux-ci. Un résultat similaire, portant sur des traits quantitatifs d'individus de la même population, a été trouvé par A. Koch. Les deux études en ensemble montre que le polymorphisme génétique dans cette population est suffisamment grand pour être important au niveau écologique. Dans le chapitre 4, j'ai cherché a examiner le polymorphisme des séquences du gène BiP au sein d'un individu. C'est la première étude qui examine la diversité génétique du génome de CEA avec un autre marqueur que l'ADN ribosomique. J'ai trouvé 31 types de séquences différentes du gène BiP issu d'un isolat de G. intraradices mis en culture à partir d'une seule spore. Cette variation n'était pas restreinte à des zones sélectivement neutres du BiP. Mes résultats montrent qu'il y a un grand nombre de variants non-fonctionnels, proportionnellement au faible nombre de copies attendues par noyau. Ceci va dans le sens d'une partition de l'information génétique entre les noyaux.<br/><br/>Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are root symbionts with about 80% of all known species of vascular land plants. AMF are ecologically important because of the benefits that they confer to plants. Molecular studies on AMF showed that rDNA sequences were highly variable between species and within species. Because AMF are coenocytic and multinucleate there are several possibilities how this intraspecific genetic variation could be organized. Therefore, the organization and evolution of this variation in AMF were investigated in the present work. Based on fossil records the AMF symbiosis has existed for 450 Million years and is therefore considered ancient. First molecular data indicated no evident sexual reproduction and gave rise to the hypothesis that AMF might be ancient asexuals. The first part of this thesis (Chapter 2) shows evidence for recombination in different AMF but also indicates that it has not been frequent enough to purge accumulated mutations. Given asexual reproduction, it has been predicted that the many nuclei in AMF should diverge leading to genetically different nuclei. This hypothesis has been confirmed by an experiment of M. Hijri and is also included in chapter 2 as the results were published together. In chapter 3 I then investigated whether intraspecific genetic variation also exists in a field population of the AMF Glomus intraradices. Comparing genetic fingerprints of individuals derived from single spores I could clearly show that large genetic differences exist. A similar result, based on quantitative genetic traits, was found for the same population by A. Koch. The two studies taken together show that the genetic variation observed in the population is high enough to be of ecological relevance. Lastly, in chapter 4, I investigated within individual genetic variation among BiP gene sequences. It is the first study that has analyzed genetic diversity in the AMF genome in a region of DNA other than rDNA. I found 31 sequence variants of the BiP gene in one G. intraradices isolate that originated from one spore. Genetic variation was not only restricted to selectively neutral parts of BiP. A high number of predicted non-functional variants compared to a likely low number of copies per nucleus indicated that functional genetic information might even be partitioned among nuclei. The results of this work contribute to our understanding of potential evolutionary strategies of ancient asexuals, they also suggest that genetic differences in a population might be ecologically relevant and they show that this variation even occurs in functional regions of the AMF genome.