Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

AIDS along Brazil`s borders, 1990-2003

Objective. To study the AIDS epidemic in Brazil`s border areas, from the spatial and temporal perspective. Methods. This was an ecological study in which the cases of AIDS reported to the Ministry of Health of Brazil from 1990-2003 were grouped according to ""hunger areas"" as defined by Josue de Castro in the 1940s and according to 19 cultural subregions. Spatial assessment was based on incidence rates for border municipalities; temporal assessment considered the absolute number of cases occurring quarterly from 1990-2003 in each of the hunger areas studied (Extreme South, Midwest, and Amazon). Results. During the study period, 7 973 cases of AIDS were reported from the Brazilian border areas: 648 in the Amazon area, 1 579 in the Midwest, and 5 746 in the Extreme South (populations of 668 098, 895 489, and 2 769 361, respectively). The subregions with the highest AIDS incidence rates in each of the three border areas were those near triple-borders, between more than two Latin American countries. Sexual transmission was predominant, with heterosexual transmission being the most frequent, followed by transmission by male homosexuality. These two categories accounted for 87.2% of the cases reported. The estimates of the trend parameter in the temporal analysis were 0.53 (P < 0.0001), 0.83 (P < 0.0001), and 3.47 (P < 0.0001), respectively, for the Amazon, Midwest, and Extreme South areas. Conclusion. The improvement of health care services along Brazil`s borders may be a strategy for territorial integration and for dealing with the AIDS epidemic, as long as social, economic, and cultural differences are taken into account.

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such all increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient ill preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

Human bocavirus respiratory infections in children

Human bocavirus (HBoV) was recently identified in respiratory samples from patients with acute respiratory infections and has been reported in different regions of the world. To the best of our knowledge, HBoV has never been reported in respiratory infections in Brazil. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected from patients aged <5 years hospitalized in 2005 with respiratory infections in Ribeirao Preto, southeast Brazil, and tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for HBoV. HBoV-positive samples were further tested by PCR for human respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, human coronaviruses 229E and OC43, human influenza viruses A and B, human parainfluenza viruses 1, 2 and 3, human rhinovirus and human adenovirus. HBoV was detected in 26/248 (10.5%) children of which 21 (81%) also tested positive for other respiratory viruses. Despite the high rates of co-infections, no significant differences were found between HBoV-positive patients with and without co-infections with regard to symptoms.

Early Identification of Infectious Complications in Bariatric Surgery by the Determination of Peritoneal and Systemic Cytokines

Obesity has become a global epidemic and bariatric surgery is one of the therapeutic tools to deal with it. Postoperative complications can occur, such as staple line dehiscence and anastomotic leaks, leading to increased patient mortality. The diagnosis of these complications is frequently difficult. The objective of the present study was to determine whether peritoneal and systemic cytokines could early detect those complications. All patients who underwent open Roux-en-Y gastric bypass from February 2007 to August 2008 were prospectively evaluated. Blood and peritoneal effluent from the drain were collected for the determination of cytokine levels. We also evaluated the clinical signs and the leukograms of the patients. A total of 107 obese patients were studied. Ninety patients had no complications; 17 had at least one infectious complication which include five cases of staple line dehiscence. Until the third postoperative day, the vital signs and the leukogram did not predict the onset of infectious complications, but the cytokines (interleukin-1 beta and interleukin-6) were early markers of these complications. Cytokines are good predictors of poor postoperative evolution in bariatric surgery since peritoneal cytokines diagnose better these infectious complications even before changes in blood count and before the occurrence of clinical manifestations.

Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata

The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short-and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number.

Hospitalizations for HIV/AIDS: Differences Between Sexes

Background: Women are especially vulnerable to HIV infection because of biological, social, cultural, and economic factors. In Brazil, AIDS was initially seen predominantly in homosexual men, but the epidemic gradually reached a gender balance as increasing numbers of women became infected with HIV. Objective: The aim of the present study was to identify the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics of hospitalized patients with HIV/AIDS of both sexes and compare the differences between them. Methods: This epidemiologic cross-sectional study evaluated gender differences in demographic, social, clinical, and epidemiologic characteristics of patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS who were admitted for any reason to the Public Hospital of the Medical School of the Federal University of Triangulo Mineiro, Uberaba, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Results: A total of 363 patients were included in the analysis, with a male/female ratio of 1.1:1.0. Forty-one percent of women were pregnant. Mean age at hospitalization and duration of hospitalization were significantly greater among men (P < 0.05). Men and nonpregnant women were admitted because of infection significantly more often than were pregnant women (P < 0.05). Significantly more single men who reported homosexual, bisexual, or heterosexual behavior associated with drug use were admitted compared with women (P < 0.05). Women admitted for treatment were significantly more likely than men to be employed (P < 0.05). Adherence to antiretroviral treatment and T CD4+ lymphocyte count indicated important differences between the sexes, with better parameters observed among nonpregnant and pregnant women compared with men. Conclusions: In the present study, women with HIV/AIDS who were admitted to the hospital for any reason were in better clinical condition compared with men. This observation may be partially explained by the proportion of pregnant women in the study population. These findings suggest that future studies should examine pregnant women with HIV/AIDS as a separate population group to avoid bias in analysis. (Gend Med. 2010;7:28-38) (C) 2010 Excerpta Medica Inc.

Cesarean delivery is associated with an increased risk of obesity in adulthood in a Brazilian birth cohort study

Background: Obesity is epidemic worldwide, and increases in cesarean delivery rates have occurred in parallel. Objective: This study aimed to determine whether cesarean delivery is a risk factor for obesity in adulthood in a birth cohort of Brazilian subjects. Design: We initiated a birth cohort study in Ribeirao Preto, southeastern Brazil, in 1978. A randomly selected sample of 2057 subjects from the original cohort was reassessed in 2002-2004. Type of delivery, birth weight, maternal smoking, and schooling were obtained after birth. The following data from subjects were collected at 23-25 y of age: body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)), physical activity, smoking, and income. Obesity was defined as a BMI >= 30. A Poisson multivariable model was performed to determine the association between cesarean delivery and BMI. Results: The obesity rate in adults born by cesarean delivery was 15.2% and in those born by vaginal delivery was 10.4% (P = 0.002). Adults born by cesarean delivery had an increased risk (prevalence ratio: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.02) of obesity at adulthood after adjustments. Conclusion: We hypothesize that increasing rates of cesarean delivery may play a role in the obesity epidemic worldwide. Am J Clin Nutr 2011;93:1344-7.

An Experimental Model of Meningoencephalomyelitis by Rocio Flavivirus in Balb/C Mice: Inflammatory Response, Cytokine Production, and Histopathology

Rocio virus (ROCV) is a flavivirus, probably transmitted by Culex mosquitoes and maintained in nature as a zoonosis of wild birds. Rocio virus caused a human epidemic of severe encephalitis that lasted from 1973 to 1980 in the Ribeira valley, in the southeastern coast of Brazil. After this outbreak, serologic evidence of ROCV circulation has been reported and public health authorities are concerned about a return of ROCV outbreaks in Brazil. We show here a study on the pathogenesis and the physiopathology of ROCV disease in the central nervous system of a Balb/C young adult mice experimental model. The animals were intraperitoneally infected by ROCV and followed from 0 to 9 days after infection, when all of them died. Nervous tissue samples were collected from infected animals for immunohistochemistry and molecular biology analysis. We observed the virus in the central nervous system, the inflammatory changes induced by Th1 and Th2 cytokines, and the final irreversible damage of nervous tissues by neuronal degeneration and apoptosis. These findings can help to better understand the pathogenesis and physiopathology of the human meningoencephalomyelitis by ROCV and other flaviviruses.

Ecology of Rickettsia in South America

Until the year 2000, only three Rickettsia species were known in South America: (i) Rickettsia rickettsii, transmitted by the ticks Amblyomma cajennense, and Amblyomma aureolatum, reported in Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil, where it is the etiological agent of Rocky Mountain spotted fever; (ii) Rickettsia prowazekii, transmitted by body lice and causing epidemic typhus in highland areas, mainly in Peru; (iii) Rickettsia typhi, transmitted by fleas and causing endemic typhus in many countries. During this new century, at least seven other rickettsiae were reported in South America: Rickettsia felis infecting fleas and the tick-associated agents Rickettsia parkeri, Rickettsia massiliae, Candidatus ""Rickettsia amblyommii,"" Rickettsia bellii, Rickettsia rhipicephali, and Candidatus ""Rickettsia andeanae. "" Among these other rickettsiae, only R. felis, R. parkeri and R. massiliae are currently recognized as human pathogens. R. rickettsii is a rare agent in nature, infecting : <= 1% individuals in a few tick populations. Contrastingly, R. parkeri, Candidatus ""R. amblyommii, "" R. rhipicephali, and R. bellii are usually found infecting 10 to 100% individuals in different tick populations. Despite rickettsiae being transmitted transovarially through tick generations, low infection rates for R. rickettsii are possibly related to pathogenic effect of R. rickettsii for ticks, as shown for A. aureolatum under laboratory conditions. This scenario implies that R. rickettsii needs amplifier vertebrate hosts for its perpetuation in nature, in order to create new lines of infected ticks (horizontal transmission). In Brazil, capybaras and opossums are the most probable amplifier hosts for R. rickettsii, among A. cajennense ticks, and small rodents for A. aureolatum.

Population structure and mouse-virulence of Toxoplasma gondii in Brazil

Recent studies found that isolates of Toxoplasma gondii from Brazil were biologically and genetically different from those in North America and Europe. However, to date only a small number of isolates have been analysed from different animal hosts in Brazil. In the present study DNA samples of 46 T. gondii isolates from cats in 11 counties in Sao Paulo state, Brazil were genetically characterised using 10 PCR restriction fragment length polymorphism markers including SAG1, SAG2, SAG3, STUB, GRA6, c22-8, c29-2, L358, PKI and Apico. An additional marker, CS3, that locates on chromosome VIIa and has previously been shown to be linked to acute virulence of T. gondii was also used to determine its association to virulence in mice. Genotyping of these 46 isolates revealed a high genetic diversity with 20 genotypes but no clonal Type I, II or III lineage was found. Two of the 46 isolates showed mixed infections. Combining genotyping data in this study with recent reported results from chickens, dogs and cats in Brazil (total 125 isolates) identified 48 genotypes and 26 of these genotypes had single isolates. Four of the 48 genotypes with multiple isolates identified from different hosts and locations are considered the common clonal lineages in Brazil. These lineages are designated as Types BrI, BrII, BrIII and BrIV. These results indicate that the T. gondii population in Brazil is highly diverse with a few successful clonal lineages expanded into wide geographical areas. In contrast to North America and Europe, where the Type II clonal lineage is overwhelmingly predominant, no Type II strain was identified from the 125 Brazil isolates. Analysis of mortality rates in infected mice indicates that Type BrI is highly virulent, Type BrIII is non-virulent, whilst Type BrII and BrIV lineages are intermediately virulent. In addition, allele types at the CS3 locus are strongly linked to mouse-virulence of the parasite. Thus, T. gondii has an epidemic population structure in Brazil and the major lineages have different biological traits. (C) 2007 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Chlamydophila psittaci in Zoo Workers in Brazil

P>To evaluate the prevalence of antibodies to Chlamydophila psittaci 364 serum samples were collected from veterinarians, biologists, animal scientists, veterinary students, animal keepers and others employees in 20 zoos, and from veterinary practitioners in 10 Brazilian states. Subjects ranged from 15 to 64 years of age, with 268 (74%) males and 96 (26%) females. Chlamydial antibodies were determined by the complement fixation test (CFT) and specific anti-C. psittaci IgG antibodies were determined by the microimmunoflurescence (MIF) test. Complement fixation test showed 23.9% (87/364) and MIF test showed 4.7% (17/364) positive serum samples. Titres ranged from 16 to 256 in both assays, demonstrating evidence of recent or current infection. Although chlamydial antibodies were detected in workers of seventeen zoos, MIF test only detected specific C. psittaci antibodies in seven of them. Previous psittacosis infection was suspected in eight workers of two zoos, five of whom reported having pneumonia, while employed at the zoos. However, diagnosis was not established in any of these cases in the past. Results indicated the occurrence of infection and previous contact of Brazilian zoo workers with C. psittaci, as well as the zoonotic potential of psittacosis in this risk population. Other studies are necessary to evaluate the risk factors of infection in this population. This seroepidemiological survey confirmed the need to adopt preventive measures to control avian chlamydiosis and protect the health of zoo workers in the country.

Ross River virus transmission, infection, and disease: a cross-disciplinary review

Ross River virus (RRV) is a fascinating, important arbovirus that is endemic and enzootic in Australia and Papua New Guinea and was epidemic in the South Pacific in 1979 and 1980. Infection with RRV may cause disease in humans, typically presenting as peripheral polyarthralgia or arthritis, sometimes with fever and rash. RRV disease notificatïons in Australia average 5,000 per year. The first well-described outbreak occurred in 1928. During World War II there were more outbreaks, and the name epidemic polyarthritis was applied. During a 1956 outbreak, epidemic polyarthritis was linked serologically to a group A arbovirus (Alphavirus). The virus was subsequently isolated from Aedes vigilax mosquitoes in 1963 and then from epidemic polyarthritis patients. We review the literature on the evolutionary biology of RRV, immune response to infection, pathogenesis, serologic diagnosis, disease manifestations, the extraordinary variety of vertebrate hosts, mosquito vectors, and transmission cycles, antibody prevalence, epidemiology of asymptomatic and symptomatic human infection, infection risks, and public health impact. RRV arthritis is due to joint infection, and treatment is currently based on empirical anti-inflammatory regimens. Further research on pathogenesis may improve understanding of the natural history of this disease and lead to new treatment strategies. The burden of morbidity is considerable, and the virus could spread to other countries. To justify and design preventive programs, we need accurate data on economic costs and better understanding of transmission and behavioral and environmental risks.