Policy Change in Comparative Contexts: Applying the Advocacy Coalition Framework Outside of Western Europe and North America

The advocacy coalition framework (ACF) is one of the most frequently applied theories of the policy process. Most applications have been in Western Europe and North America. This article provides an overview of the ACF, summarizes existing applications outside of Western Europe and North America, and introduces the special issue that features applications of the ACF in the Philippines, China, India, and Kenya. This article concludes with an argument for the continued application of the ACF outside of Western Europe and North America and a research agenda for overcoming challenges in using the ACF in comparative public policy research.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

CD41 T cell recovery during suppression of HIV replication: an international comparison of the immunological efficacy of antiretroviral therapy in North America, Asia and Africa.

BACKGROUND Even among HIV-infected patients who fully suppress plasma HIV RNA replication on antiretroviral therapy, genetic (e.g. CCL3L1 copy number), viral (e.g. tropism) and environmental (e.g. chronic exposure to microbial antigens) factors influence CD4 recovery. These factors differ markedly around the world and therefore the expected CD4 recovery during HIV RNA suppression may differ globally. METHODS We evaluated HIV-infected adults from North America, West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa and Asia starting non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitorbased regimens containing efavirenz or nevirapine, who achieved at least one HIV RNA level <500/ml in the first year of therapy and observed CD4 changes during HIV RNA suppression. We used a piecewise linear regression to estimate the influence of region of residence on CD4 recovery, adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. We observed 28 217 patients from 105 cohorts over 37 825 person-years. RESULTS After adjustment, patients from East Africa showed diminished CD4 recovery as compared with other regions. Three years after antiretroviral therapy initiation, the mean CD4 count for a prototypical patient with a pre-therapy CD4 count of 150/ml was 529/ml [95% confidence interval (CI): 517–541] in North America, 494/ml (95% CI: 429–559) in West Africa, 515/ml (95% CI: 508–522) in Southern Africa, 503/ml (95% CI: 478–528) in Asia and 437/ml (95% CI: 425–449) in East Africa. CONCLUSIONS CD4 recovery during HIV RNA suppression is diminished in East Africa as compared with other regions of the world, and observed differences are large enough to potentially influence clinical outcomes. Epidemiological analyses on a global scale can identify macroscopic effects unobservable at the clinical, national or individual regional level.

Morphological differentiation of Betula (birch) pollen in northwest North America and its palaeoecological application

Lake sediments from arcto-boreal regions commonly contain abundant Betula pollen. However, palaeoenvironmental interpretations of Betula pollen are often ambiguous because of the lack of reliable morphological features to distinguish among ecologically distinct Betula species in western North America. We measured the grain diameters and pore depths of pollen from three tree-birch species (B. papyrifera, B. kenaica and B. neoalaskana) and two shrub-birch species (B. glandulosa and B. nana), and calculated the ratio of grain diameter to pore depth (D/P ratio). No statistical difference exists in all three parameters between the shrub-birch species or between two of the tree-birch species (B. kenaica and B. papyrifera), and B. neoalaskana is intermediate between the shrub-birch and the other two tree-birch species. However, mean pore depth is significantly larger for the tree species than for the shrub species. In contrast, mean grain diameter cannot distinguish tree and shrub species. Mean D/P ratio separates tree and shrub species less clearly than pore depth, but this ratio can be used for verification. The threshold for distinguishing pollen of tree versus shrub birch lies at 2.55 μm and 8.30 for pore depth and D/P ratio, respectively. We'applied these thresholds to the analysis of Betula pollen in an Alaskan lake-sediment core spanning the past 800 years. Results show that shrub birch increased markedly at the expense of tree birch during the‘Little Ice Age’; this patten is not discernible in the profile of total birch pollen.

An intercontinental comparison of chironomid palaeotemperature inference models: Europe vs North America

Chironomid-temperature inference models based on North American, European and combined surface sediment training sets were compared to assess the overall reliability of their predictions. Between 67 and 76 of the major chironomid taxa in each data set showed a unimodal response to July temperature, whereas between 5 and 22 of the common taxa showed a sigmoidal response. July temperature optima were highly correlated among the training sets, but the correlations for other taxon parameters such as tolerances and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS) regression coefficients were much weaker. PLS, weighted averaging, WA-PLS, and the Modern Analogue Technique, all provided useful and reliable temperature inferences. Although jack-knifed error statistics suggested that two-component WA-PLS models had the highest predictive power, intercontinental tests suggested that other inference models performed better. The various models were able to provide good July temperature inferences, even where neither good nor close modern analogues for the fossil chironomid assemblages existed. When the models were applied to fossil Lateglacial assemblages from North America and Europe, the inferred rates and magnitude of July temperature changes varied among models. All models, however, revealed similar patterns of Lateglacial temperature change. Depending on the model used, the inferred Younger Dryas July temperature decrease ranged between 2.5 and 6°C.

Molar gas ratios and stable oxygen and nitrogen isotopes of air entrapped in ice, North America

The molar ratios of atmospheric gases change during dissolution in water due to differences in their relative solubilities. We exploited this characteristic to develop a tool to clarify the origin of ice formations in permafrost regions. Extracted from ice, molar gas ratios can distinguish buried glacier ice from intrasedimental ground ice formed by freezing groundwaters. An extraction line was built to isolate gases from ice by melting and trapping with liquid He, followed by analysis of N2, O2, Ar, 18O-O2 and 15N-N2, by continuous flow mass spectrometry. The method was tested using glacier ice, aufeis ice (river icing) and intrasedimental ground ice from sites in the Canadian Arctic. O2/Ar and N2/Ar ratios clearly distinguish between atmospheric gas in glacial ice and gases from intrasedimental ground ice, which are exsolved from freezing water. 615NN2 and 618OO2 in glacier ice, aufeis ice and intrasedimental ground ice do not show clear distinguishing trends as they are affected by various physical processes during formation such as gravitational settling, excess air addition, mixing with snow pack, and respiration.

Isotopic composition of ground ice, ebullition gases and thermokarst lake water, North America

Thermokarst lakes are thought to have been an important source of methane (CH4) during the last deglaciation when atmospheric CH4 concentrations increased rapidly. Here we demonstrate that meltwater from permafrost ice serves as an H source to CH4 production in thermokarst lakes, allowing for region-specific reconstructions of dD-CH4 emissions from Siberian and North American lakes. dD CH4 reflects regionally varying dD values of precipitation incorporated into ground ice at the time of its formation. Late Pleistocene-aged permafrost ground ice was the dominant H source to CH4 production in primary thermokarst lakes, whereas Holocene-aged permafrost ground ice contributed H to CH4 production in later generation lakes. We found that Alaskan thermokarst lake dD-CH4 was higher (-334 ± 17 per mil) than Siberian lake dD-CH4 (-381 ± 18 per mil). Weighted mean dD CH4 values for Beringian lakes ranged from -385 per mil to -382 per mil over the deglacial period. Bottom-up estimates suggest that Beringian thermokarst lakes contributed 15 ± 4 Tg CH4 /yr to the atmosphere during the Younger Dryas and 25 ± 5 Tg CH4 /yr during the Preboreal period. These estimates are supported by independent, top-down isotope mass balance calculations based on ice core dD-CH4 and d13C-CH4 records. Both approaches suggest that thermokarst lakes and boreal wetlands together were important sources of deglacial CH4.

Lithologic and geochemical composition of samples from the Circum Superior Belt, North America

The ca. 1880 Ma Circum-Superior Large Igneous Province (LIP) consists of a number of discontinuous segments known to cover a significant portion of the margin of the Superior Province craton in North America. New geochemical and isotopic data from western segments of this LIP support a common origin for the these segments and suggest that magmatism in the Lake Superior region may have been fed through the ~ 600 km long Pickle Crow dyke from a source north of the Fox River Belt in northeastern Manitoba. The Fox River Belt, Pickle Crow dyke and sections of the Hemlock Formation in the Lake Superior region possess trace element signatures which are similar to those of more recent oceanic plateaux. The Hemlock Formation displays a heterogeneous geochemical signature. This chemical heterogeneity can in part be explained by lithospheric contamination and possibly by source heterogeneity. The tectonomagmatic setting in which these igneous rocks were formed could have involved a mantle plume. Evidence supporting a plume origin includes high MgO volcanic rocks, high calculated degrees of partial melting and geochemical signatures similar to those of oceanic plateaux.

(Table 1) Estimated e-Nd(0) input calculated using the relative fraction of ODP Hole 105-647A amphibole grains originated from different provinces of the North America

Many marine radiogenic isotope records show both spatial and temporal variations, reflecting both the degree of mixing of distinct sources in the oceans and changes in the distribution of chemical weathering on the continents. However, changes in weathering and transport processes may themselves affect the composition of radiogenic isotopes released into seawater. The provenance of physically weathered material in the Labrador Sea, constrained through the use of Ar-Ar ages of individual detrital minerals, has been used to estimate the relative contributions of chemically weathered terranes releasing radiogenic isotopes into the Labrador Sea. A simple box-model approach for balancing observed Nd-isotope variations has been used to constrain the relative importance of localised input in the Labrador Sea, and the subsequent mixing of Labrador Sea Water into North Atlantic Deep-Water. The long-term pattern of erosion and deep-water formation around the North Atlantic seems to have been a relatively stable feature since 1.5 Ma, although there has been a dramatic shift in the nature of physical and chemical weathering affecting the release of Hf and Pb isotopes. The modelled Nd isotopes imply a relative decrease in water mass advection into the Labrador Sea between 2.4 and 1.5 Ma, accompanied by a decrease in the rate of overturning, possibly caused by an increased freshwater input into the Labrador Sea.

Comparison of multi-year Ka-band propagation characteristics at four sites in North America and Europe

Tropospheric phenomena such as clouds and mainly rain cause higher attenuation at Ka-band than at lower frequencies. In this collaborative paper, the main results of four long-term Ka-band propagation campaigns are presented. The experiments are carried out in Ottawa, Canada (satellite Anik F2); Aveiro, Portugal; Madrid, Spain; and Toulouse, France (satellite HotBird 6 in the last three cases) and have been running since 2004 in Aveiro, 2006 in Ottawa and Madrid, and 2008 in Toulouse. After a brief introduction of the experiments, rain rate and excess attenuation results are discussed, first for a common two-year measurement period and later for the whole database available. Seasonal attenuation statistics for Madrid, Ottawa and Aveiro are compared. Finally, fade duration and fade slope statistics derived at three locations are presented and discussed.

Late Quaternary extinction of a tree species in eastern North America

Widespread species- and genus-level extinctions of mammals in North America and Europe occurred during the last deglaciation [16,000–9,000 yr B.P. (by 14C)], a period of rapid and often abrupt climatic and vegetational change. These extinctions are variously ascribed to environmental change and overkill by human hunters. By contrast, plant extinctions since the Middle Pleistocene are undocumented, suggesting that plant species have been able to respond to environmental changes of the past several glacial/interglacial cycles by migration. We provide evidence from morphological studies of fossil cones and anatomical studies of fossil needles that a now-extinct species of spruce (Picea critchfieldii sp. nov.) was widespread in eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. P. critchfieldii was dominant in vegetation of the Lower Mississippi Valley, and extended at least as far east as western Georgia. P. critchfieldii disappeared during the last deglaciation, and its extinction is not directly attributable to human activities. Similarly widespread plant species may be at risk of extinction in the face of future climate change.

Characterization of a unique variant of bat rabies virus responsible for newly emerging human cases in North America.

The silver-haired bat variant of rabies virus (SHBRV) has been identified as the etiological agent of a number of recent human rabies cases in the United States that are unusual in not having been associated with any known history of conventional exposure. Comparison of the different biological and biochemical properties of isolates of this virus with those of a coyote street rabies virus (COSRV) revealed that there are unique features associated with SHBRV. In vitro studies showed that, while the susceptibility of neuroblastoma cells to infection by both viruses was similar, the infectivity of SHBRV was much higher than that of COSRV in fibroblasts (BHK-21) and epithelial cells (MA-104), particularly when these cells were kept at 34 degrees C. At this temperature, low pH-dependent fusion and cell-to-cell spread of virus is seen in BHK-21 cells infected with SHBRV but not with COSRV. It appears that SHBRV may possess an unique cellular tropism and the ability to replicate at lower temperature, allowing a more effective local replication in the dermis. This hypothesis is supported by in vivo results which showed that while SHBRV is less neurovirulent than COSRV when administered via the intramuscular or intranasal routes, both viruses are equally neuroinvasive if injected intracranially or intradermally. Consistent with the above findings, the amino acid sequences of the glycoproteins of SHBRV and COSRV were found to have substantial differences, particularly in the region that contains the putative toxic loop, which are reflected in marked differences in their antigenic composition. Nevertheless, an experimental rabies vaccine based on the Pittman Moore vaccine strain protected mice equally well from lethal doses of SHBRV and COSRV, suggesting that currently used vaccines should be effective in the postexposure prophylaxis of rabies due to SHBRV.

Fate of biological control introductions: monitoring an Australian fungal pathogen of grasshoppers in North America.

In North America there are two generally recognized pathotypes (pathotypes 1 and 2) of the fungus Entomophaga grylli which show host-preferential infection of grasshopper subfamilies. Pathotype 3, discovered in Australia, has a broader grasshopper host range and was considered to be a good biocontrol agent. Between 1989 and 1991 pathotype 3 was introduced at two field sites in North Dakota. Since resting spores are morphologically indistinguishable among pathotypes, we used pathotype-specific DNA probes to confirm pathotype identification in E. grylli-infected grasshoppers collected at the release sites in 1992, 1993, and 1994. In 1992, up to 23% of E. grylli-infected grasshoppers of the subfamilies Melanoplinae, Oedipodinae, and Gomphocerinae were infected by pathotype 3, with no infections > 1 km from the release sites. In 1993, pathotype 3 infections declined to 1.7%. In 1994 grasshopper populations were low and no pathotype 3 infections were found. The frequency of pathotype 3 infection has declined to levels where its long-term survival in North America is questionable. Analyses of biocontrol releases are critical to evaluating the environmental risks associated with these ecological manipulations, and molecular probes are powerful tools for monitoring biocontrol releases.