Approximate algorithms for credal networks with binary variables

This paper presents a family of algorithms for approximate inference in credal networks (that is, models based on directed acyclic graphs and set-valued probabilities) that contain only binary variables. Such networks can represent incomplete or vague beliefs, lack of data, and disagreements among experts; they can also encode models based on belief functions and possibilistic measures. All algorithms for approximate inference in this paper rely on exact inferences in credal networks based on polytrees with binary variables, as these inferences have polynomial complexity. We are inspired by approximate algorithms for Bayesian networks; thus the Loopy 2U algorithm resembles Loopy Belief Propagation, while the Iterated Partial Evaluation and Structured Variational 2U algorithms are, respectively, based on Localized Partial Evaluation and variational techniques. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of environmental variables on capybara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris: Rodentia, Hydrochoeridae) detectability in anthropogenic environments of southeastern Brazil

Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Genetic potential of a maize population from Southern Brazil for the modified convergent-divergent selection scheme

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a very important cereal to world-wide economy which is also true for Brazil, particularly in the South region. Grain yield and plant height have been chosen as important criteria by breeders and farmers from Santa Catarina State (SC), Brazil. The objective of this work was to estimate genetic-statistic parameters associated with genetic gain for grain yield and plant height, in the first cycle of convergent-divergent half-sib selection in a maize population (MPA1) cultivated by farmers within the municipality of Anchieta (SC). Three experiments were carried out in different small farms at Anchieta using low external agronomic inputs; each experiment represented independent samples of half-sib families, which were evaluated in randomized complete blocks with three replications per location. Significant differences among half-sib families were observed for both variables in all experiments. The expected responses to truncated selection of the 25% better families in each experiment were 5.1, 5.8 and 5.2% for reducing plant height and 3.9, 5.7 and 5.0% for increasing grain yield, respectively. The magnitudes of genetic-statistic parameters estimated evidenced that the composite population MPA1 exhibits enough genetic variability to be used in cyclical process of recurrent selection. There were evidences that the genetic structure of the base population MPA1, as indicated by its genetic variability, may lead to expressive changes in the traits under selection, even under low selection pressure.

CORRELATION BETWEEN FLOWERING, FRUCTIFICATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN Solanum lycocarpum A. St.-Hil, SOLANACEAE

Solanum lycocarpum (lobeira) is a typical and abundant species of brazilian Cerrado, which occupies mainly surrounding disturbed areas. It has interesting characteristics from the point of view of reproductive biology, that probably are favoring the large occupation of habitats by the species. Based on the fact that the species produces flowers and fruit during all the year, the present study had the purpose to verify the association between flower and fruit production with environmental variables (temperature, relative humidity and precipitation), aiming to support future studies referring to reproductive biology and ecology of plant species from Cerrado biome. A population of S. lycocarpum composed of 34 plants in reproductive phase, situated in Morrinhos, south of the State of Goias, Brazil,, was evaluated. All the plants were geographically referenced with a GPS receptor. Observations were made monthly during 13 months (June, 2005 to July, 2006) quantifying open flowers and fruits produced in the intervals between the observations. It was possible suggest high conversion of flowers in fruits. The Spearman rank correlation showed positive correlation of flower number with precipitation and relative humidity. Fruit number was not correlated with the environmental variables.

Culture-Independent Assessment of Rhizobiales-Related Alphaproteobacteria and the Diversity of Methylobacterium in the Rhizosphere and Rhizoplane of Transgenic Eucalyptus

The rhizosphere is an ecosystem exploited by a variety of organisms involved in plant health and environmental sustainability. Abiotic factors influence microorganism-plant interactions, but the microbial community is also affected by expression of heterologous genes from host plants. In the present work, we assessed the community shifts of Alphaproteobacteria phylogenetically related to the Rhizobiales order (Rhizobiales-like community) in rhizoplane and rhizosphere soils of wild-type and transgenic eucalyptus. A greenhouse experiment was performed and the bacterial communities associated with two wild-type (WT17 and WT18) and four transgenic (TR-9, TR-15, TR-22, and TR-23) eucalyptus plant lines were evaluated. The culture-independent approach consisted of the quantification, by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), of a targeted subset of Alphaproteobacteria and the assessment of its diversity using PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and 16S rRNA gene clone libraries. Real-time quantification revealed a lesser density of the targeted community in TR-9 and TR-15 plants and diversity analysis by principal components analysis, based on PCR-DGGE, revealed differences between bacterial communities, not only between transgenic and nontransgenic plants, but also among wild-type plants. The comparison between clone libraries obtained from the transgenic plant TR-15 and wild-type WT17 revealed distinct bacterial communities associated with these plants. In addition, a culturable approach was used to quantify the Methylobacterium spp. in the samples where the identification of isolates, based on 16S rRNA gene sequences, showed similarities to the species Methylobacterium nodulans, Methylobacterium isbiliense, Methylobacterium variable, Methylobacterium fujisawaense, and Methylobacterium radiotolerans. Colonies classified into this genus were not isolated from the rhizosphere but brought in culture from rhizoplane samples, except for one line of the transgenic plants (TR-15). In general, the data suggested that, in most cases, shifts in bacterial communities due to cultivation of transgenic plants are similar to those observed when different wild-type cultivars are compared, although shifts directly correlated to transgenic plant cultivation may be found.

Dissolution parameters for sodium diclofenac-containing hypromellose matrix tablet

Sodium diclofenac (SD) release from dosage forms has been studied under different conditions. However, no dissolution method that is discriminatory enough to reflect slight changes in formulation or manufacturing process, and which could be effectively correlated with the biological properties of the dosage form, has been reported. This study sought to develop three different formulae of SD-containing matrix tablets and to determine the effect of agitation speed in its dissolution profiles. F1, F2 and F3 formulations were developed using hypromellose (10, 20 and 30%, respectively for F1, F2 and F3) and other conventional excipients. Dissolution tests were carried out in phosphate buffer pH 6.8 at 37 degrees C using apparatus 11 at 50, 75 or 100 rpm. Dissolution efficiency (DE), T(50) and T(90) were determined and plotted as functions of the variables agitation speed and hypromellose concentration. Regarding DE, F2 showed more sensitivity to variations in agitation speed than F1 and F3. Increasing hypromellose concentration reduced DE values, independent of agitation speed. Analysis of T(50) and T(90) suggests that F1 is less sensitive to variations in agitation speed than F2 and F3. Most discriminatory dissolution conditions were observed at 50 rpm. Results suggest that the comparison of dissolution performance of SD matrix tablets should take into account polymer concentration and agitation conditions. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Screening of Variables Influencing the Clavulanic Acid Production by Streptomyces DAUFPE 3060 Strain

Clavulanic acid (CA) is a beta-lactam antibiotic, which has a potent beta-lactamase inhibiting activity. The influence of five variables, namely pH (6.0, 6.4, and 6.8), temperature (28A degrees C, 30A degrees C, and 32A degrees C), agitation intensity (150, 200, and 250 rpm), glycerol concentration (5.0, 7.5, and 10 g/L) and soybean flour concentration (5.0, 12.5, and 20 g/L), on CA production by a new isolate of Streptomyces (DAUFPE 3060) was investigated in 250-mL Erlenmeyer flasks using a fractional factorial design. Temperature and soybean flour concentration were shown to be the two variables that exerted the most important effects on the production of CA at 95% confidence level. The highest CA concentration (494 mg/L) was obtained after 48 h at 150 rpm, 32A degrees C, pH 6.0, 5.0 g/L glycerol, and 20 g/L soybean flour concentrations. Under these conditions, the yields of biomass and product on consumed substrate were 0.26 g(X)/g(S) and 64.3 mg(P)/g(S), respectively. Fermentations performed in 3.0-L bench-scale fermenter allowed increasing the CA production by about 60%.

Endogenous opioids: role in prostaglandin-dependent and -independent fever

This study evaluated the participation of mu-opioid-receptor activation in body temperature (T-b) during normal and febrile conditions (including activation of heat conservation mechanisms) and in different pathways of LPS-induced fever. The intracerebroventricular treatment of male Wistar rats with the selective opioid mu-receptor-antagonist cyclic D-Phe-Cys-Try-D-Trp-Arg-Thr-Pen-Thr-NH2 (CTAP; 0.1-1.0 mu g) reduced fever induced by LPS (5.0 mu g/kg) but did not change Tb at ambient temperatures of either 20 C or 28 C. The subcutaneous, intracerebroventricular, and intrahypothalamic injection of morphine (1.0 -10.0 mg/kg, 3.0 -30.0 mu g, and 1 -100 ng, respectively) produced a dose-dependent increase in Tb. Intracerebroventricular morphine also produced a peripheral vasoconstriction. Both effects were abolished by CTAP. CTAP (1.0 mu g icv) reduced the fever induced by intracerebroventricular administration of TNF-alpha (250 ng), IL-6 (300 ng), CRF (2.5 mu g), endothelin-1 (1.0 pmol), and macrophage inflammatory protein (500 pg) and the first phase of the fever induced by PGF(2 alpha) (500.0 ng) but not the fever induced by IL-1 beta (3.12 ng) or PGE(2) (125.0 ng) or the second phase of the fever induced by PGF(2 alpha). Morphine-induced fever was not modified by the cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor indomethacin (2.0 mg/kg). In addition, morphine injection did not induce the expression of COX-2 in the hypothalamus, and CTAP did not modify PGE2 levels in cerebrospinal fluid or COX-2 expression in the hypothalamus after LPS injection. In conclusion, our results suggest that LPS and endogenous pyrogens (except IL-1 beta and prostaglandins) recruit the opioid system to cause a mu-receptor-mediated fever.

Relaxation evoked by extracellular Ca(2+) in rat aorta is nerve-independent and involves sarcoplasmic reticulum and L-type Ca(2+) channell

The perivascular nerve network expresses a Ca(2+) receptor that is activated by high extracellular Ca(2+) concentrations and causes vasorelaxation in resistance arteries. We have verified the influence of perivascular nerve fibers on the Ca(2+)-induced relaxation in aortic rings. To test our hypothesis, either pre-contracted aortas isolated from rats after sensory denervation with capsaicin or aortic rings acutely denervated with phenol were stimulated to relax with increasing extracellular Ca(2+) concentration. We also studied the role of the endothelium on the Ca(2+)-induced relaxation, and we verified the participation of endothelial/nonendothelial nitric oxide and cyclooxygenise-arachidonic acid metabolites. Additionally, the role of the sarcoplasmic reticulum, K(+) channels and L-type Ca(2+) channels on the Ca(2+)-induced relaxation were evaluated. We have observed that the Ca(2+)-induced relaxation is completely nerve independent, and it is potentiated by endothelial nitric oxide (NO). In endothelium-denuded aortic rings, indomethacin and AH6809 (PGF(2 alpha) receptor antagonist) enhance the relaxing response to Ca(2+). This relaxation is inhibited by thapsigargin and verapamil, while was not altered by tetraethylammonium. In conclusion, we have shown that perivascular nervous fibers do not participate in the Ca(2+)-induced relaxation, which is potentiated by endothelial NO. In endothelium-denuded preparations, indomethacin and AH6809 enhance the relaxation induced by Ca(2+). The relaxing response to Call was impaired by verapamil and thapsigargin, revealing the importance of L-type Ca(2+) channels and sarcoplasmic reticulum in this response. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

W/O/W multiple emulsions obtained by one-step emulsification method and evaluation of the involved variables

The effects of some composition variables on the development of multiple emulsions by one-step method were evaluated and their morphology characterized. The formulations that remained stable during the period of the test were submitted to centrifugation and thermal stress tests. The stability and the morphology of multiple droplets were affected not only by the type and concentration of the surfactants employed, but also by the water/oil ratios used. The results suggest that the formation of multiple droplets could involve a combination of transitional and catastrophic phase inversions. The results provide improved knowledge about the one-step emulsification method, a simplified process to prepare multiple emulsions when compared to the two-steps method.

ATP-induced apoptosis involves a Ca(2+)-independent phospholipase A(2) and 5-lipoxygenase in macrophages

Macrophages express P2X(7) and other nucleotide (P2) receptors, and display the phenomena of extracellular ATP (ATP(e))-induced P2X(7)-dependent membrane permeabilization and cell death by apoptosis and necrosis. P2X7 receptors also cooperate with toll-like receptors (TLRs) to induce inflammasome activation and IL-1 beta secretion. We investigated signaling pathways involved in the induction of cell death by ATP, in intraperitoneal murine macrophages. Apoptosis (hypodiploid nuclei) and necrosis (LDH release) were detected 6 h after an induction period of 20 min in the presence of ATP Apoptosis was blocked by caspase 3 and caspase 9 inhibitors and by cyclosporin A. The MAPK inhibitors PD-98059, SB-203580 and SB-202190 provoked no significant effect oil apoptosis, but SB-203580 blocked LDH release. Neither apoptosis nor necrosis was inhibited when both intra- and extracellular Ca(2+) were chelated during the induction period. Mepacrine, a generic PLA(2) inhibitor and BEL, an inhibitor of Ca(2+)-independent PLA(2) (iPLA(2)) blocked apoptosis, while pBPB and AACOOPF(3). inhibitors of secretory and Ca(2+)-dependent PLA(2) respectively, had no significant effect. Cycloxygenase inhibitors had no effect on apoptosis, while the inhibitors of lipoxygenase (LOX) and leukotriene biosynthesis nordihydroguaiaretic acid (NDGA), zileuton, AA-861, and MK-886 significantly decreased apoptosis. Neither NDGA nor MK-886 blocked apoptosis of 5-LOX(-/-) macrophages. CP-105696 and MK-571, antagonists of leukotriene receptors, had no significant effect on apoptosis. None of the inhibitors of PLA(2) and LOX/leukotriene pathway had a significant inhibitory effect on LDH release. Our results indicate that a Ca(2+) -independent step involving an iPLA(2) and 5-LOX are involved in the triggering of apoptosis but not necrosis by P2X7 in macrophages. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dimensionless spray flux in wet granulation: Monte-Carlo simulations and experimental validation

Dimensionless spray flux Ψa is a dimensionless group that characterises the three most important variables in liquid dispersion: flowrate, drop size and powder flux through the spray zone. In this paper, the Poisson distribution was used to generate analytical solutions for the proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) and the fraction of the powder surface covered by drops (fcovered) as a function of Ψa. Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to simulate the spray zone and investigate how Ψa, fsingle and fcovered are related. The Monte-Carlo data was an excellent match with analytical solutions of fcovered and fsingle as a function of Ψa. At low Ψa, the proportion of the surface covered by drops (fcovered) was equal to Ψa. As Ψa increases, drop overlap becomes more dominant and the powder surface coverage levels off. The proportion of nuclei formed from single drops (fsingle) falls exponentially with increasing Ψa. In the ranges covered, these results were independent of drop size, number of drops, drop size distribution (mono-sized, bimodal and trimodal distributions), and the uniformity of the spray. Experimental data of nuclei size distributions as a function of spray flux were fitted to the analytical solution for fsingle by defining a cutsize for single drop nuclei. The fitted cutsizes followed the spray drop sizes suggesting that the method is robust and that the cutsize does indicate the transition size between single drop and agglomerate nuclei. This demonstrates that the nuclei distribution is determined by the dimensionless spray flux and the fraction of drop controlled nuclei can be calculated analytically in advance.