An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

An overview of some historical Brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inHation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inHation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

kàjré: a vida social de uma machadinha krahô

This paper proposes to analyse a situation of social drama involving the Krahô Indians (classified in ethnology as belonging to Jê-Timbira group) and the Museu Paulista of the Universidade de São Paulo, which we can classify as two distinct social fields. The understanding of the drama is conveyed through an examination of each of these fields and the coming together of both on the basis of the positions taken up, within the network of relationships established during the social process, by actors representing both the Krahô field and what we may call here the academic-administrative field. A multi-sited ethnographic approach is adopted, seeking the complexity of the drama and the positions in the aforementioned network, taking into consideration institutional political projects, personal projects and personal trajectories within a historical perspective. The aim is to encourage discussion of the relationship between the formation of the historical-scientific and ethnographic museums and the practices of the anthropological discipline, as well as the social role of these institutions and the processes of signification of objects belonging to the indigenous material culture

Entre ecos e narcisos: estudo de caso sobre a prática teatral com adolescentes como atividade extracurricular numa escola de nível médio

This masters thesis discusses the studying and the teaching of drama and its implications among teenagers of the contemporary world. This paper also analyses an extracurricular project entitled Drama in the development of citizenship , which was carried out in the public state school Berilo Wanderley in Natal/RN, between 1999 and 2005 with high school students. It comprises a case study that aimed at understanding how and why they chose to take drama classes outside of the school curriculum and even after they graduated, some of them never left the school project and even started participating in the cultural and artistic context of the city of Natal quite actively, both as part of an audience as well as on artistic, political, social and pedagogical performance. The project was high significant for its participants, for the school and for the community, by creating a sense of recognition of the relevance of the pedagogical and artistic production in the public school, as it managed to yield knowledge that helped students to understand the values of group work, sharing information, collaborative assessment and, most of all, to engender actions of protagonism by the teenagers themselves within their social environments. The empirical process developed is placed in a contemporary historical context where educational paradigms shifts occur, and where categories of youth empowerment and protagonism are fundamental to the educational process in the 21st century. The objective of this study is to reflect upon the pedagogical dimension of drama classes for teenagers, aiming at providing further discussions on the role of acting classes in the construction of the personality among youngsters, thus hoping to contribute to other teaching practices, including drama and other subjects of general education

Greve do voto: a política da antipolítica nas eleições municipais de 2004 em Fortaleza

This study discusses the use of communication strategies in the dispute for political hegemony in the contemporary society. In order to do so, one starts from the concept of politics in its broad sense, involving, besides parties and parliaments, the groups and organized social movements. The comprehension that the political activity, nowadays, involves the media, made part of this study be focused on the investigation of problems in this relationship. We analyzed, especially, the communication actions promoted by the Grupo Crítica Radical, in which participate, among others, Maria Luiza Fontenelle, former mayor of Fortaleza, and Rosa da Fonseca, former concillor. They left their old parties after a process of self-criticism concerning their incumbencies, partly influenced by the books of Robert Kurz about the collapse of capitalism . After this historical contextualization, one starts the analysis of the campaign Greve do Voto promoted by the Group during the municipal elections of 2004. The production of campaign material, the street drama, the small shows and the fact that the press covered the campaign are discussed starting from the theoretical formulations presented on this research, understanding, this way, the challenge of these groups to build an action against the hegemony allied to the universe of the mass media

OBALUAIÊ: um estudo sobre o estigma no convívio com o HIV/Aids em terreiros de Umbanda na cidade de Fortaleza-Ceará

The tradition and living in African-Brazilian religious spaces, called yards, reveal how dynamic the reproduction and exchange of knowledge are, and that through their worldview, reveal ways of dealing with health and disease. The yards are culturally rich territories, in which people shape concepts, practices, and beliefs about health, disease and forms of healing, passed on from generation to generation through oral tradition. With the advent of HIV/AIDS from the 80s, a new challenge is established in the community of the yards and in the individual trajectories of people affected by the disease, who since an early age participate in this religious practice. The objective of this research is the analysis on the stigma in living with HIV/AIDS in yards of Umbanda in Fortaleza-Ceará, considering the (re)production of social dramas experienced by the community in question. During the investigation we adopted two basic parameters: the first one considers the understanding of the reproduction of stigma (or deteriorated identity) in relation to HIV/AIDS in its socio-historical dimension and its effects in the investigated context (Goffman, 1988). And the second one refers to the creation and reproduction of social dramas as a social experience carried through learning, handling and symbolic performance, which is reproduced in four stages: rupture, crisis, corrective action and reintegration (Turner, 1971)