Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Impact of community structure on information transfer

The observation that real complex networks have internal structure has important implication for dynamic processes occurring on such topologies. Here we investigate the impact of community structure on a model of information transfer able to deal with both search and congestion simultaneously. We show that networks with fuzzy community structure are more efficient in terms of packet delivery than those with pronounced community structure. We also propose an alternative packet routing algorithm which takes advantage of the knowledge of communities to improve information transfer and show that in the context of the model an intermediate level of community structure is optimal. Finally, we show that in a hierarchical network setting, providing knowledge of communities at the level of highest modularity will improve network capacity by the largest amount.

Does this child have a foreign body aspiration?

Context: Foreign body aspiration (FbA) is a serious problem in children. Accurate clinical and radiographic diagnosis is important because missed or delayed diagnosis can result in respiratory difficulties ranging from life-treatening airway obstruction to chronic wheezing or recurrent pneumonia. Bronchoscopy also has risks and accurate clinical and radiographc diagnosis can support the decision of bronchoscopy. Objective: To rewiev the diagnostic accuracy of clinical presentation (CP) and pulmonary radiograph (PR) for the diagnosis of FbA. There is no previous rewievMethods: A search of Medline is conducted for articles containing data regarding CP and PR signes of FbA. Calculation of likelihood ratios (LR) and pre and post test probability using Bayes theorem were performed for all signs of CP and PR. Inclusion criteria: Articles containing prospective data regarding CP and PR of FbA. Exclusion criteria: Retrospectives studies. Articles containing incomplete data for calculation of LR. Results: Five prospectives studies are included with a total of 585 patients. Prevalence of FbA is 63% in children suspected of FbA. If CP is normal, probability of FbA is 25% and if PR is normal, probability is 14%. If CP is pathologic, probability of FbA is 69-76% with presence of cough (LR = 1.32) or dyspnea (LR = 1.84) or localized crackles (LR = 1.5). Probability is 81-88% if cyanosis (LR = 4.8) or decreased breaths sounds (LR = 4.3) or asymetric auscultation (LR = 2.9) or localized wheezing (LR = 2.5) are present. When CP is anormal and PR show mediatinal shift (LR = 100), pneumomediatin (LR = 100), radio opaque foreign body (LR = 100), lobar distention (LR = 4), atelectasis (LR = 2.5), inspiratory/expiratory abnormal (LR = 7), the probability of FbA is 96-100%. If CP is normal and PR is abnormal the probability is 40-100%. If CP is abnormal and PR is normal the probability is 55-75%. Conclusions: This rewiev of prospective studies demonstrates the importance of CP and PR and an algorithm can be proposed. When CP is abnormal with or without PR pathologic, the probability of FbA is high and bronchoscopy is indicated. When CP and PR are normal the probability of FbA is low and bronchoscopy is not necessary immediatly, observation should be proposed. This approach should be validated with prospective study.

Comparative performance of supertree algorithms in large data sets using the soapberry family (Sapindaceae) as a case study.

For the last 2 decades, supertree reconstruction has been an active field of research and has seen the development of a large number of major algorithms. Because of the growing popularity of the supertree methods, it has become necessary to evaluate the performance of these algorithms to determine which are the best options (especially with regard to the supermatrix approach that is widely used). In this study, seven of the most commonly used supertree methods are investigated by using a large empirical data set (in terms of number of taxa and molecular markers) from the worldwide flowering plant family Sapindaceae. Supertree methods were evaluated using several criteria: similarity of the supertrees with the input trees, similarity between the supertrees and the total evidence tree, level of resolution of the supertree and computational time required by the algorithm. Additional analyses were also conducted on a reduced data set to test if the performance levels were affected by the heuristic searches rather than the algorithms themselves. Based on our results, two main groups of supertree methods were identified: on one hand, the matrix representation with parsimony (MRP), MinFlip, and MinCut methods performed well according to our criteria, whereas the average consensus, split fit, and most similar supertree methods showed a poorer performance or at least did not behave the same way as the total evidence tree. Results for the super distance matrix, that is, the most recent approach tested here, were promising with at least one derived method performing as well as MRP, MinFlip, and MinCut. The output of each method was only slightly improved when applied to the reduced data set, suggesting a correct behavior of the heuristic searches and a relatively low sensitivity of the algorithms to data set sizes and missing data. Results also showed that the MRP analyses could reach a high level of quality even when using a simple heuristic search strategy, with the exception of MRP with Purvis coding scheme and reversible parsimony. The future of supertrees lies in the implementation of a standardized heuristic search for all methods and the increase in computing power to handle large data sets. The latter would prove to be particularly useful for promising approaches such as the maximum quartet fit method that yet requires substantial computing power.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial and lipid droplet content assessed with standardized grid sizes for stereology.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial (Mito) and lipid droplet (Lipid) content are often measured in human translational studies. Stereological point counting allows computing Mito and Lipid volume density (Vd) from micrographs taken with transmission electron microscopes. Former studies are not specific as to the size of individual squares that make up the grids, making reproducibility difficult, particularly when different magnifications are used. Our objective was to determine which size grid would be best at predicting fractional volume efficiently without sacrificing reliability and to test a novel method to reduce sampling bias. Methods: ten subjects underwent vastus lateralis biopsies. Samples were fixed, embedded, and cut longitudinally in ultrathin sections of 60 nm. Twenty micrographs from the intramyofibrillar region were taken per subject at Ã-33,000 magnification. Different grid sizes were superimposed on each micrograph: 1,000 Ã- 1,000 nm, 500 Ã- 500 nm, and 250 Ã- 250 nm. Results: mean Mito and Lipid Vd were not statistically different across grids. Variability was greater when going from 1,000 Ã- 1,000 to 500 Ã- 500 nm grid than from 500 Ã- 500 to 250 Ã- 250 nm grid. Discussion: this study is the first to attempt to standardize grid size while keeping with the conventional stereology principles. This is all in hopes of producing replicable assessments that can be obtained universally across different studies looking at human skeletal muscle mitochondrial and lipid droplet content.

Benchmarking therapeutic drug monitoring software: A systematic evaluation of available computer tools

Introduction: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) aims at optimizing treatment by individualizing dosage regimen based on measurement of blood concentrations. Maintaining concentrations within a target range requires pharmacokinetic and clinical capabilities. Bayesian calculation represents a gold standard in TDM approach but requires computing assistance. In the last decades computer programs have been developed to assist clinicians in this assignment. The aim of this benchmarking was to assess and compare computer tools designed to support TDM clinical activities.¦Method: Literature and Internet search was performed to identify software. All programs were tested on common personal computer. Each program was scored against a standardized grid covering pharmacokinetic relevance, user-friendliness, computing aspects, interfacing, and storage. A weighting factor was applied to each criterion of the grid to consider its relative importance. To assess the robustness of the software, six representative clinical vignettes were also processed through all of them.¦Results: 12 software tools were identified, tested and ranked. It represents a comprehensive review of the available software's characteristics. Numbers of drugs handled vary widely and 8 programs offer the ability to the user to add its own drug model. 10 computer programs are able to compute Bayesian dosage adaptation based on a blood concentration (a posteriori adjustment) while 9 are also able to suggest a priori dosage regimen (prior to any blood concentration measurement), based on individual patient covariates, such as age, gender, weight. Among those applying Bayesian analysis, one uses the non-parametric approach. The top 2 software emerging from this benchmark are MwPharm and TCIWorks. Other programs evaluated have also a good potential but are less sophisticated (e.g. in terms of storage or report generation) or less user-friendly.¦Conclusion: Whereas 2 integrated programs are at the top of the ranked listed, such complex tools would possibly not fit all institutions, and each software tool must be regarded with respect to individual needs of hospitals or clinicians. Interest in computing tool to support therapeutic monitoring is still growing. Although developers put efforts into it the last years, there is still room for improvement, especially in terms of institutional information system interfacing, user-friendliness, capacity of data storage and report generation.

A multilevel multiscale finite volume method

The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method has been developed to efficiently solve reservoir-scale problems while conserving fine-scale details. The method employs two grid levels: a fine grid and a coarse grid. The latter is used to calculate a coarse solution to the original problem, which is interpolated to the fine mesh. The coarse system is constructed from the fine-scale problem using restriction and prolongation operators that are obtained by introducing appropriate localization assumptions. Through a successive reconstruction step, the MsFV method is able to provide an approximate, but fully conservative fine-scale velocity field. For very large problems (e.g. one billion cell model), a two-level algorithm can remain computational expensive. Depending on the upscaling factor, the computational expense comes either from the costs associated with the solution of the coarse problem or from the construction of the local interpolators (basis functions). To ensure numerical efficiency in the former case, the MsFV concept can be reapplied to the coarse problem, leading to a new, coarser level of discretization. One challenge in the use of a multilevel MsFV technique is to find an efficient reconstruction step to obtain a conservative fine-scale velocity field. In this work, we introduce a three-level Multiscale Finite Volume method (MlMsFV) and give a detailed description of the reconstruction step. Complexity analyses of the original MsFV method and the new MlMsFV method are discussed, and their performances in terms of accuracy and efficiency are compared.

Genome-wide search reveals a novel GacA-regulated small RNA in Pseudomonas species.

BACKGROUND: Small RNAs (sRNAs) are widespread among bacteria and have diverse regulatory roles. Most of these sRNAs have been discovered by a combination of computational and experimental methods. In Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a ubiquitous Gram-negative bacterium and opportunistic human pathogen, the GacS/GacA two-component system positively controls the transcription of two sRNAs (RsmY, RsmZ), which are crucial for the expression of genes involved in virulence. In the biocontrol bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, three GacA-controlled sRNAs (RsmX, RsmY, RsmZ) regulate the response to oxidative stress and the expression of extracellular products including biocontrol factors. RsmX, RsmY and RsmZ contain multiple unpaired GGA motifs and control the expression of target mRNAs at the translational level, by sequestration of translational repressor proteins of the RsmA family. RESULTS: A combined computational and experimental approach enabled us to identify 14 intergenic regions encoding sRNAs in P. aeruginosa. Eight of these regions encode newly identified sRNAs. The intergenic region 1698 was found to specify a novel GacA-controlled sRNA termed RgsA. GacA regulation appeared to be indirect. In P. fluorescens CHA0, an RgsA homolog was also expressed under positive GacA control. This 120-nt sRNA contained a single GGA motif and, unlike RsmX, RsmY and RsmZ, was unable to derepress translation of the hcnA gene (involved in the biosynthesis of the biocontrol factor hydrogen cyanide), but contributed to the bacterium's resistance to hydrogen peroxide. In both P. aeruginosa and P. fluorescens the stress sigma factor RpoS was essential for RgsA expression. CONCLUSION: The discovery of an additional sRNA expressed under GacA control in two Pseudomonas species highlights the complexity of this global regulatory system and suggests that the mode of action of GacA control may be more elaborate than previously suspected. Our results also confirm that several GGA motifs are required in an sRNA for sequestration of the RsmA protein.

Development and Demonstration of a Freezing Drizzle Algorithm for Roadway Environmental Sensing Systems, Final Report, October 2012

The primary goal of this project is to demonstrate the accuracy and utility of a freezing drizzle algorithm that can be implemented on roadway environmental sensing systems (ESSs). The types of problems related to the occurrence of freezing precipitation range from simple traffic delays to major accidents that involve fatalities. Freezing drizzle can also lead to economic impacts in communities with lost work hours, vehicular damage, and downed power lines. There are means for transportation agencies to perform preventive and reactive treatments to roadways, but freezing drizzle can be difficult to forecast accurately or even detect as weather radar and surface observation networks poorly observe these conditions. The detection of freezing precipitation is problematic and requires special instrumentation and analysis. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) development of aircraft anti-icing and deicing technologies has led to the development of a freezing drizzle algorithm that utilizes air temperature data and a specialized sensor capable of detecting ice accretion. However, at present, roadway ESSs are not capable of reporting freezing drizzle. This study investigates the use of the methods developed for the FAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) within a roadway environment to detect the occurrence of freezing drizzle using a combination of icing detection equipment and available ESS sensors. The work performed in this study incorporated the algorithm developed initially and further modified for work with the FAA for aircraft icing. The freezing drizzle algorithm developed for the FAA was applied using data from standard roadway ESSs. The work performed in this study lays the foundation for addressing the central question of interest to winter maintenance professionals as to whether it is possible to use roadside freezing precipitation detection (e.g., icing detection) sensors to determine the occurrence of pavement icing during freezing precipitation events and the rates at which this occurs.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

EADock: docking of small molecules into protein active sites with a multiobjective evolutionary optimization.

In recent years, protein-ligand docking has become a powerful tool for drug development. Although several approaches suitable for high throughput screening are available, there is a need for methods able to identify binding modes with high accuracy. This accuracy is essential to reliably compute the binding free energy of the ligand. Such methods are needed when the binding mode of lead compounds is not determined experimentally but is needed for structure-based lead optimization. We present here a new docking software, called EADock, that aims at this goal. It uses an hybrid evolutionary algorithm with two fitness functions, in combination with a sophisticated management of the diversity. EADock is interfaced with the CHARMM package for energy calculations and coordinate handling. A validation was carried out on 37 crystallized protein-ligand complexes featuring 11 different proteins. The search space was defined as a sphere of 15 A around the center of mass of the ligand position in the crystal structure, and on the contrary to other benchmarks, our algorithm was fed with optimized ligand positions up to 10 A root mean square deviation (RMSD) from the crystal structure, excluding the latter. This validation illustrates the efficiency of our sampling strategy, as correct binding modes, defined by a RMSD to the crystal structure lower than 2 A, were identified and ranked first for 68% of the complexes. The success rate increases to 78% when considering the five best ranked clusters, and 92% when all clusters present in the last generation are taken into account. Most failures could be explained by the presence of crystal contacts in the experimental structure. Finally, the ability of EADock to accurately predict binding modes on a real application was illustrated by the successful docking of the RGD cyclic pentapeptide on the alphaVbeta3 integrin, starting far away from the binding pocket.

Tecnologias da informação e da comunicação e a polêmica sobre direito autoral: o caso Google Book Search

Anotamos, neste trabalho, reflexões sobre as conseqüências das Tecnologias da Informação e da Comunicação (TICs) para o direito autoral e sobre os atores do processo informativo. Partimos da lei do direito autoral vigente no Brasil, perguntando-nos como tais normas protegem as obras intelectuais no contexto digital e até que ponto há legalidade e legitimidade na digitalização de livros protegidos, disponibilizados on-line, tomando como exemplo o caso "Google Book Search". Constatamos que a lei atual pouco defende os direitos dos autores e dos leitores, pois se volta para a proteção dos interesses privados comerciais, e que a sociedade civil encontra formas de ampliar o fluxo comunicativo em decorrência da facilidade de reprodução e distribuição de cópias de obras intelectuais proporcionada pelas TICs.

A program of nurse algorithm-guided care for adult patients with acute minor illnesses in primary care

Background: Attention to patients with acute minor-illnesses requesting same-day consultation represents a major burden in primary care. The workload is assumed by general practitioners in many countries. A number of reports suggest that care to these patients may be provided, at in least in part, by nurses. However, there is scarce information with respect to the applicability of a program of nurse management for adult patients with acute minor-illnesses in large areas. The aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a program of nurse algorithm-guided care for adult patients with acute minor illnesses requesting same-day consultation in primary care in a largely populated area. Methods: A cross-sectional study of all adult patients seeking same day consultation for 16 common acute minor illnesses in a large geographical area with 284 primary care practices. Patients were included in a program of nurse case management using management algorithms. The main outcome measure was case resolution, defined as completion of the algorithm by the nurse without need of referral of the patient to the general practitioner. The secondary outcome measure was return to consultation, defined as requirement of new consultation for the same reason as the first one, in primary care within a 7-day period. Results: During a two year period (April 2009-April 2011), a total of 1,209,669 consultations were performed in the program. Case resolution was achieved by nurses in 62.5% of consultations. The remaining cases were referred to a general practitioner. Resolution rates ranged from 94.2% in patients with burns to 42% in patients with upper respiratory symptoms. None of the 16 minor illnesses had a resolution rate below 40%. Return to consultation during a 7-day period was low, only 4.6%. Conclusions: A program of algorithms-guided care is effective for nurse case management of patients requesting same day consultation for minor illnesses in primary care.