Simulated change in atmospheric CO2 and D14C around 14.6 kyr BP, at the onset of the northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød

One of the most abrupt and yet unexplained past rises in atmospheric CO2 (10 p.p.m.v. in two centuries) occurred in quasi-synchrony with abrupt northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød, 14,600 years ago. Here we use a U/Th-dated record of atmospheric D14C from Tahiti corals to provide an independent and precise age control for this CO2 rise. We also use model simulations to show that the release of old (nearly 14C-free) carbon can explain these changes in CO2 and D14C. The D14C record provides an independent constraint on the amount of carbon released (125 Pg C). We suggest, in line with observations of atmospheric CH4 and terrigenous biomarkers, that thawing permafrost in high northern latitudes could have been the source of carbon, possibly with contribution from flooding of the Siberian continental shelf during meltwater pulse 1A. Our findings highlight the potential of the permafrost carbon reservoir to modulate abrupt climate changes via greenhouse-gas feedbacks.

Stable carbon isotopes, Methane Index, and distributions of different GDGTs

Gas hydrates represent one of the largest pools of readily exchangeable carbon on Earth's surface. Releases of the greenhouse gas methane from hydrates are proposed to be responsible for climate change at numerous events in geological history. Many of these inferred events, however, were based on carbonate carbon isotopes which are susceptible to diagenetic alterations. Here we propose a molecular fossil proxy, i.e., the "Methane Index (MI)", to detect and document the destabilization and dissociation of marine gas hydrates. MI consists of the relative distribution of glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), the core membrane lipids of archaea. The rational behind MI is that in hydrate-impacted environments, the pool of archaeal tetraether lipids is dominated by GDGT-1, -2 and -3 due to the large contribution of signals from the methanotrophic archaeal community. Our study in the Gulf of Mexico cold-seep sediments demonstrates a correlation between MI and the compound-specific carbon isotope of GDGTs, which is strong evidence supporting the MI-methane consumption relationship. Preliminary applications of MI in a number of hydrate-impacted and/or methane-rich environments show diagnostic MI values, corroborating the idea that MI may serve as a robust indicator for hydrate dissociation that is useful for studies of global carbon cycling and paleoclimate change.

Mg/Ca and stable isotope record of benthic foraminifera of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

A rapid increase in greenhouse gas levels is thought to have fueled global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Foraminiferal magnesium/calcium ratios indicate that bottom waters warmed by 4° to 5°C, similar to tropical and subtropical surface ocean waters, implying no amplification of warming in high-latitude regions of deep-water formation under ice-free conditions. Intermediate waters warmed before the carbon isotope excursion, in association with downwelling in the North Pacific and reduced Southern Ocean convection, supporting changing circulation as the trigger for methane hydrate release. A switch to deep convection in the North Pacific at the PETM onset could have amplified and sustained warming.

Stable isotope record of foraminifera from sediment core EW9209-1JPC

Stable isotopic measurements of G. sacculifer and C. wuellerstorfi in a core from the western equatorial Atlantic imply that there are parallel, suborbital oscillations in surface water hydrography and deep water circulation occurring during oxygen isotope stages 2 and 3. Low values of G. sacculifer delta18O accompany high values of C. wuellerstorfi delta13C, linking warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics with increased production of lower North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The amplitude of the delta18O oscillations is 0.6 per mil (or 2°-3°C), which is superimposed on a glacial/interglacial amplitude of about 2.1per mil. Using the G. sacculifer delta18O data, we calculate that surface waters were colder during stage 2 than calculated by CLIMAP [1976, 1981]. The longer-period (>2 kyr) oscillations in air temperature recorded in the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores appear to correlate with oscillations in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Atlantic. The magnitude of these oscillations in tropical SST is too large to have resulted from changes in meridional heat transport caused by the global conveyor alone. The apparent synchroneity of equatorial SST and polar air temperature changes, as well as the amplitude of the SST changes at the equator, are consistent with the climate effects expected from changes in the atmosphere's greenhouse gas content (H2Ovapor, CO2, and CH4).

Characteristics and changes of thermokarst lakes in Canada, Russia and Sweden

Peat plateaus are widespread at high northern latitudes and are important soil organic carbon reservoirs. A warming climate can cause either increased ground subsidence (thermokarst) resulting in lake formation or increased drainage as the permafrost thaws. A better understanding of spatiotemporal variations in these landforms in relation to climate change is important for predicting the future thawing permafrost carbon feedback. In this study, dynamics in thermokarst lake extent during the last 35-50 years has been quantified through time series analysis of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images (IKONOS/QuickBird) in three peat plateau complexes, spread out across the northern circumpolar region along a climatic and permafrost gradient. From the mid-1970s until the mid-2000s there has been an increase in mean annual air temperature, winter precipitation, and ground temperature in all three study areas. The two peat plateaus located in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, respectively, where mean annual air temperatures are below -5°C and ground temperatures are -2°C or colder, have experienced small changes in thermokarst lake extent. In the peat plateau located in the sporadic permafrost zone where the mean annual air temperature is around -3°C, and the ground temperature is close to 0°C, lake drainage and infilling with fen vegetation has been extensive and many new thermokarst lakes have formed. In a future progressively warmer and wetter climate permafrost degradation can cause significant impacts on landscape composition and greenhouse gas exchange also in areas with extensive peat plateaus, which presently still experience stable permafrost conditions.

Modeled uncertainties in marine N2O emissions with links to source files (52 MB, zipped)

The ocean is responsible for up to a third of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, but uncertainties in emission rates of this potent greenhouse gas are high (>100%). Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to assess six major uncertainties in estimates of N2O production, thereby providing guidance in how future studies may most effectively reduce uncertainties in current and future marine N2O emissions. Potential surface N2O production from nitrification causes the largest uncertainty in N2O emissions (estimated up to ~1.6 Tg N/yr, or 48% of modeled values), followed by the unknown oxygen concentration at which N2O production switches to N2O consumption (0.8 Tg N/yr, or 24% of modeled values). Other uncertainties are minor, cumulatively changing regional emissions by <15%. If production of N2O by surface nitrification could be ruled out in future studies, uncertainties in marine N2O emissions would be halved.

Age model and elemental data of DSDP Holes 48-401 and 80-549

A growing body of geologic evidence suggests that emplacement of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) played a major role in global warming during the early Paleogene as well as in the transient Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) event. A ~5 million year record of major and trace element abundances spanning 56 to 51 Ma at Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 401 and 549 confirms that the majority of NAIP volcanism occurred as subaerial flows. Thus the trace element records provide constraints on the nature and scope of the environmental impact of the NAIP during the late Paleocene-early Eocene interval. Subaerial volcanism would have injected mantle CO2 directly into the atmosphere, resulting in a more immediate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas abundances than CO2 input through submarine volcanism. The lack of significant hydrothermalism contradicts recently proposed mechanisms for thermally destabilizing methane hydrate reservoirs during the PETM. Any connection between NAIP volcanism and PETM warming had to occur through the atmosphere.

Fig. S1. Loci of possible event locations based on differential ts - tp arrival times at the single functioning geophone

Geological storage of CO2 that has been captured at large, point source emitters represents a key potential method for reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, this technology will only be viable if it can be guaranteed that injected CO2 will remain trapped in the subsurface for thousands of years or more. A signi?cant issue for storage security is the geomechanical response of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised that geomechanical deformation induced by CO2 injection will create or reactivate fracture networks in the sealing caprocks, providing a pathway for CO2 leakage. In this paper, we examine three large-scale sites where CO2 is injected at rates of ab. 1 megatonne/y or more: Sleipner, Weyburn, and In Salah. We compare and contrast the observed geomechanical behavior of each site, with particular focus on the risks to storage security posed by geomechanical deformation. At Sleipner, the large, high-permeability storage aquifer has experienced little pore pressure increase over 15 y of injection, implying little possibility of geomechanical deformation. At Weyburn, 45 y of oil production has depleted pore pressures before increases associated with CO2 injection. The long history of the ?eld has led to complicated, sometimes nonintuitive geomechanical deformation. At In Salah, injection into the water leg of a gas reservoir has increased pore pressures, leading to uplift and substantial microseismic activity. The differences in the geomechanical responses of these sites emphasize the need for systematic geomechanical appraisal before injection in any potential storage site.

Stable isotope composition of early Danian sediments from the Atlantic Ocean

A long-standing question in Paleogene climate concerns the frequency and mechanism of transient greenhouse gas-driven climate shifts (hyperthermals). The discovery of the greenhouse gas-driven Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~55 Ma) has spawned a search for analogous events in other parts of the Paleogene record. On the basis of high-resolution bulk sediment and foraminiferal stable isotope analyses performed on three lower Danian sections of the Atlantic Ocean, we report the discovery of a possible greenhouse gas-driven climatic event in the earliest Paleogene. This event - that we term the Dan-C2 event - is characterized by a conspicuous double negative excursion in delta13C and delta18O, associated with a double spike in increased clay content and decreased carbonate content. This suggests a double period of transient greenhouse gas-driven warming and dissolution of carbonates on the seafloor analogous to the PETMin the early Paleocene at ~65.2 Ma. However, the shape of the two negative carbon isotope excursions that make up the Dan-C2 event is different from the PETM carbon isotope profile. In the Dan-C2 event, these excursions are fairly symmetrical and each persisted for about ~40 ky and are separated by a short plateau that brings the combined duration to ~100 ky, suggesting a possible orbital control on the event. Because of the absence of a long recovery phase, we interpret the Dan-C2 event to have been associated with a redistribution of carbon that was already in the biosphere. The Dan-C2 event and other early Paleogene hyperthermals such as the short-lived early Eocene ELMO eventmay reflect amplification of a regular cycle in the size and productivity of the marine biosphere and the balance between burial of organic and carbonate carbon.

Sea surface temperture reconstruction for ODP Site 189-1172

Relative to the present day, meridional temperature gradients in the Early Eocene age (~56-53 Myr ago) were unusually low, with slightly warmer equatorial regions (Pearson et al., 2007, doi:10.1130/G23175A.1 ) but with much warmer subtropical Arctic (Sluijs et al., 2008, doi:10.1029/2007PA001495) and mid-latitude (Sluijs et al., 2007, doi:10.1038/nature06400) climates. By the end of the Eocene epoch (~34 Myr ago), the first major Antarctic ice sheets had appeared (Zachos et al., 1992, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1992)020<0569:EOISEO>2.3.CO;2; Barker et al., 2007, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.07.027), suggesting that major cooling had taken place. Yet the global transition into this icehouse climate remains poorly constrained, as only a few temperature records are available portraying the Cenozoic climatic evolution of the high southern latitudes. Here we present a uniquely continuous and chronostratigraphically well-calibrated TEX86 record of sea surface temperature (SST) from an ocean sediment core in the East Tasman Plateau (palaeolatitude ~65° S). We show that southwest Pacific SSTs rose above present-day tropical values (to ~34° C) during the Early Eocene age (~53 Myr ago) and had gradually decreased to about 21° C by the early Late Eocene age (~36 Myr ago). Our results imply that there was almost no latitudinal SST gradient between subequatorial and subpolar regions during the Early Eocene age (55-50 Myr ago). Thereafter, the latitudinal gradient markedly increased. In theory, if Eocene cooling was largely driven by a decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration Zachos et al. (2008, doi:10.1038/nature06588), additional processes are required to explain the relative stability of tropical SSTs given that there was more significant cooling at higher latitudes.

Geochemistry of sediment cores GeoB13820-1 and GeoB13863-1 from the western South Atlantic

Here, we present results from sediments collected in the Argentine Basin, a non-steady state depositional marine system characterized by abundant oxidized iron within methane-rich layers due to sediment reworking followed by rapid deposition. Our comprehensive inorganic data set shows that iron reduction in these sulfate and sulfide-depleted sediments is best explained by a microbially mediated process-implicating anaerobic oxidation of methane coupled to iron reduction (Fe-AOM) as the most likely major mechanism. Although important in many modern marine environments, iron-driven AOM may not consume similar amounts of methane compared with sulfate-dependent AOM. Nevertheless, it may have broad impact on the deep biosphere and dominate both iron and methane cycling in sulfate-lean marine settings. Fe-AOM might have been particularly relevant in the Archean ocean, >2.5 billion years ago, known for its production and accumulation of iron oxides (in iron formations) in a biosphere likely replete with methane but low in sulfate. Methane at that time was a critical greenhouse gas capable of sustaining a habitable climate under relatively low solar luminosity, and relationships to iron cycling may have impacted if not dominated methane loss from the biosphere.

Hydrate abundances at the high-flux Batumi seep area in the southeastern Black Sea

Submarine gas hydrates are a major global reservoir of the potent greenhouse gas methane. Since current assessments of worldwide hydrate-bound carbon vary by one order of magnitude, new technical efforts are required for improved and accurate hydrate quantifications. Here we present hydrate abundances determined for surface sediments at the high-flux Batumi seep area in the southeastern Black Sea at 840 m water depth using state-of-the art autoclave technology. Pressure sediment cores of up to 2.65 m in length were recovered with an autoclave piston corer backed by conventional gravity cores. Quantitative core degassing yielded volumetric gas/bulk sediment ratios of up to 20.3 proving hydrate presence. The cores represented late glacial to Holocene hemipelagic sediments with the shallowest hydrates found at 90 cmbsf. Calculated methane concentrations in the different cores surpassed methane equilibrium concentrations in the two lowermost lithological Black Sea units sampled. The results indicated hydrate fractions of 5.2% of pore volume in the sapropelic Unit 2 and mean values of 21% pore volume in the lacustrine Unit 3. We calculate that the studied area of ~ 0.5 km**2 currently contains about 11.3 kt of methane bound in shallow hydrates. Episodic detachment and rafting of such hydrates is suggested by a rugged seafloor topography along with variable thicknesses in lithologies. We propose that sealing by hydrate precipitation in coarse-grained deposits and gas accumulation beneath induces detachment of hydrate/sediment chunks. Floating hydrates will rapidly transport methane into shallower waters and potentially to the sea-atmosphere boundary. In contrast, persistent in situ dissociation of shallow hydrates appears unlikely in the near future as deep water warming by about 1.6 °C and/or decrease in hydrostatic pressure corresponding to a sea level drop of about 130 m would be required. Because hydrate detachment should be primarily controlled by internal factors in this area and in similar hydrated settings, it serves as source of methane in shallow waters and the atmosphere which is mainly decoupled from external forcing.

Development of bacterial and archaeal communities in erupted subsurface muds at the Håkon Mosby mud volcano

The microbial oxidation of methane controls the emission of the greenhouse gas methane from the ocean floor. However, some seabed structures such as mud volcanoes have leaky microbial methane filters and can be important sources of methane. We investigated the disturbance and recovery of a methanotrophic mud volcano microbiome (Håkon Mosby mud volcano, 1250 m water depth), to assess time scales of community succession and function in the natural deep-sea environment. We analyzed 10 surface and 5 subsurface sediment samples across HMMV mud flows from most recently discharged subsurface muds towards old consolidated muds as well as one reference site (REF) located approximately 0.5 km outside of the HMMV. Surface samples were obtained in 2003, 2009 and 2010. The surface of the new mud flows at the geographical center was sampled in 2009 and 2010. Around 100 m south of the center, we sampled more consolidated aged muds in 2003 and 2010. Old mud flows were sampled around 300 m southeast and 100 m north of the geographical center in 2003, 2009 and 2010. Surface sediment samples (0-20 cm) were recovered either by TV-guided Multicorer or by push cores using the remotely operated vehicle Quest (Marum, University Bremen). Subsurface sediments of all zones (>2 m below sea floor) were obtained in 2003 by gravity corer. After recovery, sediments were immediately subsampled in a refrigerated container (0°C) and further processed for biogeochemical analyses or preserved at -20°C for later DNA analyses. Our study show that freshly erupted muds hosted heterotrophic deep subsurface communities, which were replaced by surface communities within a few years of exposure. Aerobic methanotrophy was established at the top surface layer within less than a year, followed by anaerobic methanotrophy, sulfate reduction and finally thiotrophy. Our data indicate that it takes decades in cold environments before efficient methanotrophic communities establish to control methane emission. The observed succession provides insights to the response time of complex deep-sea communities to seafloor disturbances.

Table 6 Generalised properties of Utsira caprocks, based on analysis of cuttings (page 79)

Executive Summary: Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one option for mitigating atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide and thereby contributes in actions for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Bellona Foundation is striving to achieve wide implementation of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage both in Norway and internationally. Bellona considers CCS as the only viable large scale option to close the gap between energy production and demand in an environmentally sound way, thereby ensuring that climate changes and acidification of the oceans due to increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will be stabilised. ff

Subsidies, Clean Energy, and Climate Change

Estimates show that fossil fuel subsidies average USD 400–600 billion annually worldwide while renewable energy (RE) subsidies amounted to USD 66 billion in 2010 and are predicted to rise to USD 250 billion annually by 2035. Domestic political rationales for energy subsidies include promoting innovation, job creation and economic growth, energy security, and independence. Energy subsidies may also serve social and environmental goals. Whether and to what extent subsidies are effective to achieve these goals or instead lead to market distortions is a matter of much debate and the trade effects of energy subsidies are complex. This paper offers an overview of the types of energy subsidies that are used in the conventional and renewable energy sectors, and their relationship with climate change, in particular greenhouse gas emissions. While the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM) is mostly concerned with harm to competitors, this paper considers the extent to which the Agreement could also discipline subsidies that cause harm to the environment as a global common. Beyond the existing legal framework, this paper surveys a number of alternatives for improving the ability of subsidies disciplines to internalize climate change costs of energy production and consumption. One option is a new multilateral agreement on subsidies or trade remedies (with an appropriate carve-out in the WTO regime to allow for it if such an agreement is concluded outside it). Alternatively, climate change-related subsidies could be included as part of another multilateral regime or as part of regional agreements. A third approach would be to incorporate rules on energy subsidies in sectorial agreements, including a Sustainable Energy Trade Agreement such as has been proposed in other ICTSD studies.