Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Factors influencing the attitudes of cattle veterinarians, farmers, and claw trimmers towards the pain associated with the treatment of sole ulcers and the sensitivity to pain of dairy cows

This study assessed the attitudes of personnel involved in therapeutic claw trimming of dairy cattle in Switzerland towards pain associated with sole ulcers and their treatment. Data from 77 farmers, 32 claw trimmers, and 137 cattle veterinarians were used. A large range of factors were associated with whether the respondents thought that anaesthesia during the treatment of sole ulcers was beneficial; these included year of graduation, work experience, attitude to costs of analgesia, perception of competition between veterinarians and claw trimmers, estimation of pain level associated with treatment, estimated sensitivity of dairy cows to pain, knowledge of the obligation to provide analgesia, and whether the respondent thought lesion size and occurrence of defensive behaviour by the cow were important. Respondents' estimation of the pain level associated with sole ulcer treatment was linked to frequency of therapeutic claw trimming, age, farmers' income, estimated knowledge of the benefits of analgesia, and estimated sensitivity of dairy cows to pain. The latter factor was associated with profession, frequency of therapeutic claw trimming, capability of pain recognition, opinion on the benefits of analgesia, knowledge of the obligation to provide analgesia, and self-estimation of the ability to recognise pain. Improving the knowledge of personnel involved in therapeutic claw trimming with regard to pain in dairy cows and how to alleviate it is crucial if management of pain associated with treatment of sole ulcer and the welfare of lame cows are to be optimised.

Plant and arthropod community sensitivity to rainfall manipulation but not nitrogen enrichment in a successional grassland ecosystem

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services including carbon storage, biodiversity preservation and livestock forage production. These ecosystem services will change in the future in response to multiple global environmental changes, including climate change and increased nitrogen inputs. We conducted an experimental study over 3 years in a mesotrophic grassland ecosystem in southern England. We aimed to expose plots to rainfall manipulation that simulated IPCC 4th Assessment projections for 2100 (+15 % winter rainfall and −30 % summer rainfall) or ambient climate, achieving +15 % winter rainfall and −39 % summer rainfall in rainfall-manipulated plots. Nitrogen (40 kg ha−1 year−1) was also added to half of the experimental plots in factorial combination. Plant species composition and above ground biomass were not affected by rainfall in the first 2 years and the plant community did not respond to nitrogen enrichment throughout the experiment. In the third year, above-ground plant biomass declined in rainfall-manipulated plots, driven by a decline in the abundances of grass species characteristic of moist soils. Declining plant biomass was also associated with changes to arthropod communities, with lower abundances of plant-feeding Auchenorrhyncha and carnivorous Araneae indicating multi-trophic responses to rainfall manipulation. Plant and arthropod community composition and plant biomass responses to rainfall manipulation were not modified by nitrogen enrichment, which was not expected, but may have resulted from prior nitrogen saturation and/or phosphorus limitation. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change may in future influence plant productivity and induce multi-trophic responses in grasslands.

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r = 0.41, P < 0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r = 0.41, P < 0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r = 0.54, P < 0.0001 and r = 0.46, P < 0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Ethnically-based rejection sensitivity and academic achievement: The danger of retracting into one’s heritage culture

This study examined the relation between ethnically based rejection sensitivity and academic achievement in a sample of 936 immigrant students in Germany and Switzerland. The theory of race-based rejection sensitivity that originated in North America was extended to immigrant students in Europe. The rough political climate against immigrants in Europe makes it probable that immigrant youth face particular difficulties and are affected by ethnically based rejection sensitivity, at least as much as—or even more than—minority youth in the United States. Using a standardized literacy performance test and multilevel analyses, we found that ethnically based rejection sensitivity was negatively related to academic achievement for immigrant students. This relation was partially mediated by a strong contingency of the students' self-worth on the heritage culture, as well as by a low number of native German or Swiss majority-group friends. We interpret these processes as immigrant students' efforts to cope with ethnically based rejection sensitivity by retracting into their heritage culture and avoiding majority-group contact, which unfortunately, however, at the same time also results in lower academic achievement. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of colostrum versus formula feeding on hepatic glucocorticoid and α1- and β2-adrenergic receptors in neonatal calves and their effect on glucose and lipid metabolism

Neonatal energy metabolism in calves has to adapt to extrauterine life and depends on colostrum feeding. The adrenergic and glucocorticoid systems are involved in postnatal maturation of pathways related to energy metabolism and calves show elevated plasma concentrations of cortisol and catecholamines during perinatal life. We tested the hypothesis that hepatic glucocorticoid receptors (GR) and α₁- and β₂-adrenergic receptors (AR) in neonatal calves are involved in adaptation of postnatal energy metabolism and that respective binding capacities depend on colostrum feeding. Calves were fed colostrum (CF; n=7) or a milk-based formula (FF; n=7) with similar nutrient content up to d 4 of life. Blood samples were taken daily before feeding and 2h after feeding on d 4 of life to measure metabolites and hormones related to energy metabolism in blood plasma. Liver tissue was obtained 2 h after feeding on d 4 to measure hepatic fat content and binding capacity of AR and GR. Maximal binding capacity and binding affinity were calculated by saturation binding assays using [(3)H]-prazosin and [(3)H]-CGP-12177 for determination of α₁- and β₂-AR and [(3)H]-dexamethasone for determination of GR in liver. Additional liver samples were taken to measure mRNA abundance of AR and GR, and of key enzymes related to hepatic glucose and lipid metabolism. Plasma concentrations of albumin, triacylglycerides, insulin-like growth factor I, leptin, and thyroid hormones changed until d 4 and all these variables except leptin and thyroid hormones responded to feed intake on d 4. Diet effects were determined for albumin, insulin-like growth factor I, leptin, and thyroid hormones. Binding capacity for GR was greater and for α₁-AR tended to be greater in CF than in FF calves. Binding affinities were in the same range for each receptor type. Gene expression of α₁-AR (ADRA1) tended to be lower in CF than FF calves. Binding capacity of GR was related to parameters of glucose and lipid metabolism, whereas β₂-AR binding capacity was negatively associated with glucose metabolism. In conclusion, our results indicate a dependence of GR and α₁-AR on milk feeding immediately after birth and point to an involvement of hepatic GR and AR in postnatal adaptation of glucose and lipid metabolism in calves.

Parameterization of temperature sensitivity of spring phenology and its application in explaining diverse phenological responses to temperature change

Existing evidence of plant phenological change to temperature increase demonstrates that the phenological responsiveness is greater at warmer locations and in early-season plant species. Explanations of these findings are scarce and not settled. Some studies suggest considering phenology as one functional trait within a plant's life history strategy. In this study, we adapt an existing phenological model to derive a generalized sensitivity in space (SpaceSens) model for calculating temperature sensitivity of spring plant phenophases across species and locations. The SpaceSens model have three parameters, including the temperature at the onset date of phenophases (Tp), base temperature threshold (Tb) and the length of period (L) used to calculate the mean temperature when performing regression analysis between phenology and temperature. A case study on first leaf date of 20 plant species from eastern China shows that the change of Tp and Tb among different species accounts for interspecific difference in temperature sensitivity. Moreover, lower Tp at lower latitude is the main reason why spring phenological responsiveness is greater there. These results suggest that spring phenophases of more responsive, early-season plants (especially in low latitude) will probably continue to diverge from the other late-season plants with temperatures warming in the future.

Defining and measuring urban regions: A sensitivity analysis

This paper evaluates the impact of alternative city boundary definitions on economic performance. First we discuss the theoretical background and motivate the empirical work. Then we present the methodological concept of the sensitivity analysis, which will be applied to a variety of data of Zurich and Bern (the financial and the administrative centres of Switzerland) in order to see how the values of different indicators vary depending on the definition adopted. Finally we will show whether the empirical patterns found are statistically significant. The analysis shows, that the delimitation of a city or city region indeed matters.

Evidence for a role of sterol 27-hydroxylase in glucocorticoid metabolism in vivo

The intracellular availability of glucocorticoids is regulated by the enzymes 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 1 (HSD11B1) and 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 2 (HSD11B2). The activity of HSD11B1 is measured in the urine based on the (tetrahydrocortisol+5α-tetrahydrocortisol)/tetrahydrocortisone ((THF+5α-THF)/THE) ratio in humans and the (tetrahydrocorticosterone+5α-tetrahydrocorticosterone)/tetrahydrodehydrocorticosterone ((THB+5α-THB)/THA) ratio in mice. The cortisol/cortisone (F/E) ratio in humans and the corticosterone/11-dehydrocorticosterone (B/A) ratio in mice are markers of the activity of HSD11B2. In vitro agonist treatment of liver X receptor (LXR) down-regulates the activity of HSD11B1. Sterol 27-hydroxylase (CYP27A1) catalyses the first step in the alternative pathway of bile acid synthesis by hydroxylating cholesterol to 27-hydroxycholesterol (27-OHC). Since 27-OHC is a natural ligand for LXR, we hypothesised that CYP27A1 deficiency may up-regulate the activity of HSD11B1. In a patient with cerebrotendinous xanthomatosis carrying a loss-of-function mutation in CYP27A1, the plasma concentrations of 27-OHC were dramatically reduced (3.8 vs 90-140 ng/ml in healthy controls) and the urinary ratios of (THF+5α-THF)/THE and F/E were increased, demonstrating enhanced HSD11B1 and diminished HSD11B2 activities. Similarly, in Cyp27a1 knockout (KO) mice, the plasma concentrations of 27-OHC were undetectable (<1 vs 25-120 ng/ml in Cyp27a1 WT mice). The urinary ratio of (THB+5α-THB)/THA was fourfold and that of B/A was twofold higher in KO mice than in their WT littermates. The (THB+5α-THB)/THA ratio was also significantly increased in the plasma, liver and kidney of KO mice. In the liver of these mice, the increase in the concentrations of active glucocorticoids was due to increased liver weight as a consequence of Cyp27a1 deficiency. In vitro, 27-OHC acts as an inhibitor of the activity of HSD11B1. Our studies suggest that the expression of CYP27A1 modulates the concentrations of active glucocorticoids in both humans and mice and in vitro.