Linear Aggregation In The Social Accounting Matrix Framework

In economic literature, information deficiencies and computational complexities have traditionally been solved through the aggregation of agents and institutions. In inputoutput modelling, researchers have been interested in the aggregation problem since the beginning of 1950s. Extending the conventional input-output aggregation approach to the social accounting matrix (SAM) models may help to identify the effects caused by the information problems and data deficiencies that usually appear in the SAM framework. This paper develops the theory of aggregation and applies it to the social accounting matrix model of multipliers. First, we define the concept of linear aggregation in a SAM database context. Second, we define the aggregated partitioned matrices of multipliers which are characteristic of the SAM approach. Third, we extend the analysis to other related concepts, such as aggregation bias and consistency in aggregation. Finally, we provide an illustrative example that shows the effects of aggregating a social accounting matrix model.

Complementarities between mathematical and computational modeling: the case of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the mathematical model. Our main conclusion is that mathematical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenarios hard to analyze mathematically, formal models can be useful to verify and to explain the outcomes of computational models.

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

A linear optimization technique for graph pebbling

Graph pebbling is a network model for studying whether or not a given supply of discrete pebbles can satisfy a given demand via pebbling moves. A pebbling move across an edge of a graph takes two pebbles from one endpoint and places one pebble at the other endpoint; the other pebble is lost in transit as a toll. It has been shown that deciding whether a supply can meet a demand on a graph is NP-complete. The pebbling number of a graph is the smallest t such that every supply of t pebbles can satisfy every demand of one pebble. Deciding if the pebbling number is at most k is NP 2 -complete. In this paper we develop a tool, called theWeight Function Lemma, for computing upper bounds and sometimes exact values for pebbling numbers with the assistance of linear optimization. With this tool we are able to calculate the pebbling numbers of much larger graphs than in previous algorithms, and much more quickly as well. We also obtain results for many families of graphs, in many cases by hand, with much simpler and remarkably shorter proofs than given in previously existing arguments (certificates typically of size at most the number of vertices times the maximum degree), especially for highly symmetric graphs. Here we apply theWeight Function Lemma to several specific graphs, including the Petersen, Lemke, 4th weak Bruhat, Lemke squared, and two random graphs, as well as to a number of infinite families of graphs, such as trees, cycles, graph powers of cycles, cubes, and some generalized Petersen and Coxeter graphs. This partly answers a question of Pachter, et al., by computing the pebbling exponent of cycles to within an asymptotically small range. It is conceivable that this method yields an approximation algorithm for graph pebbling.

Relaxation methods for solving linear inequality systems: Converging results

The problem of finding a feasible solution to a linear inequality system arises in numerous contexts. In [12] an algorithm, called extended relaxation method, that solves the feasibility problem, has been proposed by the authors. Convergence of the algorithm has been proven. In this paper, we onsider a class of extended relaxation methods depending on a parameter and prove their convergence. Numerical experiments have been provided, as well.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Apport de la systématique dans l'amélioration de la compréhension des systèmes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise

La gestion des risques est souvent appréhendée par l'utilisation de méthodes linéaires mettant l'accent sur des raisonnements de positionnement et de type causal : à tel événement correspond tel risque et telle conséquence. Une prise en compte des interrelations entre risques est souvent occultée et les risques sont rarement analysés dans leurs dynamiques et composantes non linéaires. Ce travail présente ce que les méthodes systémiques et notamment l'étude des systèmes complexes sont susceptibles d'apporter en matière de compréhension, de management et d'anticipation et de gestion des risques d'entreprise, tant sur le plan conceptuel que de matière appliquée. En partant des définitions relatives aux notions de systèmes et de risques dans différents domaines, ainsi que des méthodes qui sont utilisées pour maîtriser les risques, ce travail confronte cet ensemble à ce qu'apportent les approches d'analyse systémique et de modélisation des systèmes complexes. En mettant en évidence les effets parfois réducteurs des méthodes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise ainsi que les limitations des univers de risques dues, notamment, à des définitions mal adaptées, ce travail propose également, pour la Direction d'entreprise, une palette des outils et approches différentes, qui tiennent mieux compte de la complexité, pour gérer les risques, pour aligner stratégie et management des risques, ainsi que des méthodes d'analyse du niveau de maturité de l'entreprise en matière de gestion des risques. - Risk management is often assessed through linear methods which stress positioning and causal logical frameworks: to such events correspond such consequences and such risks accordingly. Consideration of the interrelationships between risks is often overlooked and risks are rarely analyzed in their dynamic and nonlinear components. This work shows what systemic methods, including the study of complex systems, are likely to bring to knowledge, management, anticipation of business risks, both on the conceptual and the practical sides. Based on the definitions of systems and risks in various areas, as well as methods used to manage risk, this work confronts these concepts with approaches of complex systems analysis and modeling. This work highlights the reducing effects of some business risk analysis methods as well as limitations of risk universes caused in particular by unsuitable definitions. As a result this work also provides chief officers with a range of different tools and approaches which allows them a better understanding of complexity and as such a gain in efficiency in their risk management practices. It results in a better fit between strategy and risk management. Ultimately the firm gains in its maturity of risk management.

Population pharmacokinetics and clinical response for artemether-lumefantrine in pregnant and nonpregnant women with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tanzania.

Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Its efficacy during pregnancy has recently been challenged due to altered pharmacokinetic (PK) properties in this vulnerable group. The aim of this study was to determine the PK profile of AL in pregnant and nonpregnant women and assess their therapeutic outcome. Thirty-three pregnant women and 22 nonpregnant women with malaria were treated with AL (80/480 mg) twice daily for 3 days. All patients provided five venous plasma samples for drug quantification at random times over 7 days. Inter- and intraindividual variability was assessed, and the effects of covariates were quantified using a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach (NONMEM). A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination with linear metabolism from drug to metabolite fitted the data best for both arthemether (AM) and lumefantrine (LF) and their metabolites. Pregnancy status and diarrhea showed a significant influence on LF PK. The relative bioavailability of lumefantrine and its metabolism rate into desmethyl-lumefantrine were, respectively, 34% lower and 78% higher in pregnant women than in nonpregnant patients. The overall PCR-uncorrected treatment failure rates were 18% in pregnant women and 5% in nonpregnant women (odds ratio [OR] = 4.04; P value of 0.22). A high median day 7 lumefantrine concentration was significantly associated with adequate clinical and parasitological response (P = 0.03). The observed reduction in the relative bioavailability of lumefantrine in pregnant women may explain the higher treatment failure in this group, mostly due to lower posttreatment prophylaxis. Hence, a modified treatment regimen of malaria in pregnancy should be considered.

Synchronous versus asynchronous modeling of gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: In silico modeling of gene regulatory networks has gained some momentum recently due to increased interest in analyzing the dynamics of biological systems. This has been further facilitated by the increasing availability of experimental data on gene-gene, protein-protein and gene-protein interactions. The two dynamical properties that are often experimentally testable are perturbations and stable steady states. Although a lot of work has been done on the identification of steady states, not much work has been reported on in silico modeling of cellular differentiation processes. RESULTS: In this manuscript, we provide algorithms based on reduced ordered binary decision diagrams (ROBDDs) for Boolean modeling of gene regulatory networks. Algorithms for synchronous and asynchronous transition models have been proposed and their corresponding computational properties have been analyzed. These algorithms allow users to compute cyclic attractors of large networks that are currently not feasible using existing software. Hereby we provide a framework to analyze the effect of multiple gene perturbation protocols, and their effect on cell differentiation processes. These algorithms were validated on the T-helper model showing the correct steady state identification and Th1-Th2 cellular differentiation process. AVAILABILITY: The software binaries for Windows and Linux platforms can be downloaded from http://si2.epfl.ch/~garg/genysis.html.

Preliminary regional rockfall hazard mapping using LIDAR-based slope frequency distribution and CONEFALL modeling

A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

Functional analysis and structural modeling of human APOBEC3G reveal the role of evolutionarily conserved elements in the inhibition of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection and Alu transposition.

Retroelements are important evolutionary forces but can be deleterious if left uncontrolled. Members of the human APOBEC3 family of cytidine deaminases can inhibit a wide range of endogenous, as well as exogenous, retroelements. These enzymes are structurally organized in one or two domains comprising a zinc-coordinating motif. APOBEC3G contains two such domains, only the C terminal of which is endowed with editing activity, while its N-terminal counterpart binds RNA, promotes homo-oligomerization, and is necessary for packaging into human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) virions. Here, we performed a large-scale mutagenesis-based analysis of the APOBEC3G N terminus, testing mutants for (i) inhibition of vif-defective HIV-1 infection and Alu retrotransposition, (ii) RNA binding, and (iii) oligomerization. Furthermore, in the absence of structural information on this domain, we used homology modeling to examine the positions of functionally important residues and of residues found to be under positive selection by phylogenetic analyses of primate APOBEC3G genes. Our results reveal the importance of a predicted RNA binding dimerization interface both for packaging into HIV-1 virions and inhibition of both HIV-1 infection and Alu transposition. We further found that the HIV-1-blocking activity of APOBEC3G N-terminal mutants defective for packaging can be almost entirely rescued if their virion incorporation is forced by fusion with Vpr, indicating that the corresponding region of APOBEC3G plays little role in other aspects of its action against this pathogen. Interestingly, residues forming the APOBEC3G dimer interface are highly conserved, contrasting with the rapid evolution of two neighboring surface-exposed amino acid patches, one targeted by the Vif protein of primate lentiviruses and the other of yet-undefined function.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.