Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

O brincar nas produções do conhecimento da Creche UFF

O fenômeno social que se desenhou na esfera da educação infantil nos últimos anos, provocado muito pelo aumento do número de crianças em unidades educacionais, traz a emergência de repensar o fazer pedagógico e a atuação do profissional da educação infantil, buscando compreender a criança pequena como um ator social. Embora o debate sobre a finalidade da educação infantil tenha se intensificado quanto a ser sua tarefa ensinar e reproduzir o modelo de currículo por disciplinas, de outra parte, acentua-se a defesa por uma educação infantil comprometida com a brincadeira e a cultura infantil, como expresso nas atuais Diretrizes Curriculares Nacionais para Educação Infantil, de 2009. Neste sentido, com a contribuição de teóricos das áreas da educação, psicologia e sociologia e a partir da análise documental de parte da produção do conhecimento produzida na Creche UFF, este trabalho busca identificar e compreender como o brincar se apresenta em 35 produções elaboradas a partir e por essa unidade de educação infantil. Para tanto, tem como metodologia a análise documental, visando a pesquisa de natureza qualitativa, à luz do paradigma interpretativo. Esta pesquisa contribui com o reconhecimento da identidade dessa unidade de educação infantil, quando articula atividade de ensino, pesquisa e extensão para alunos dos cursos de graduação e pós-graduação e professores pesquisadores e, consequentemente, contribui para o diálogo e formação dos profissionais das variadas áreas do conhecimento que se dedicam a estudos da infância. Também com propostas curriculares na perspectiva de um trabalho pedagógico com as crianças no sentido de valorizar a brincadeira como algo próprio da cultura infantil. Além disso, busca proporcionar para estudiosos um repensar a respeito da importância dessa Unidade Universitária Federal de Educação Infantil como um campo de formação profissional e produção do conhecimento sobre a infância

Traversing digital learning landscapes: an Institutional and faculty case study.

Within the UK, there is a growing awareness to better understand what online educational technologies can offer in relation to learning and teaching, and how social technologies are changing communication and collaboration out with formal education. The concept of the ‘digital university’ is being widely debated within the UK Higher education sector (McCluskey and Winter, 2012), becoming embedded in educational policy, and beginning to be explored within many institutions. This session will report on one such institutional initiative, undertaken at Edinburgh Napier University in Scotland. A Digital Futures Working Group was established to: benchmark best practice in key areas including digitally enhanced education and digital literacies development; identify areas for short term action; and to produce a robust ‘digital agenda’ to inform the future direction of the university. Pivotal to this was the recognition to evolve staff digital pedagogical practices and to harness emerging digital opportunities, meet learner expectations, and meet wider expectations for contemporary able citizens. This session will be delivered in two parts. Firstly we will provide an insight into the focus of the project and the rich picture methodology used to consult with staff and students. Secondly we will specify the outcomes produced, and provide a case study of how the Faculty of Health, Life and Social Sciences engaged with the process and the progression of their digitally enabled educational practices.

JUSTEIS (JISC Usage Surveys: Trends in Electronic Information Services) Strand A: survey of end users of all electronic information services (HE and FE), with Action research report. Final report 2002/2003 Cycle Four.

Urquhart, C. (editor for JUSTEIS team), Spink, S., Thomas, R., Yeoman, A., Durbin, J., Turner, J., Armstrong, A., Lonsdale, R. & Fenton, R. (2003). JUSTEIS (JISC Usage Surveys: Trends in Electronic Information Services) Strand A: survey of end users of all electronic information services (HE and FE), with Action research report. Final report 2002/2003 Cycle Four. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth with Information Automation Ltd (CIQM). Sponsorship: JISC

Development and validation of a sport-specific exercise protocol for elite youth soccer players

Thatcher, Rhys, and Alan Batterham, 'Development and validation of a sport-specific exercise protocol for elite youth soccer players', Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness, (2004) 44(1) pp.15-22 RAE2008

Thomas Davis's education policies: theory and practice

This thesis explores the education policies of Thomas Davis. On the eve of the Great Famine Ireland was economically impoverished and politically dependent. The Irish people had a subservient mentality, were mainly uneducated and were unaware of their potential. He believed that education would develop a self-reliant, self-sufficient people; it would create a new generation of leaders and citizens necessary to transform Ireland into a prosperous, independent nation. This thesis explores his education philosophy which was political in orientation; he called for reform of university education so that it would educate leaders who were knowledgeable, patriotic and responsible. He formulated a curriculum which consisted of knowledge that would have direct use and application in public life; his curriculum included moral philosophy, oratory, philological studies and history. His contribution to the debate on the Queens Colleges bill, 1845, is explored including his public disagreement with Daniel O’Connell on the principle of multi-denominational education. This work also examines his policies on learning methodologies and teaching methods. It provides details of his thoughts on learning by experience, by observation, book learning and learning in the home. It focuses on the deficiencies evident in the system of teaching and learning that operated in Trinity College Dublin and it provides an analysis of his preferred method of instruction: Lyceum teaching. This thesis also explores his national curriculum in history and Irish culture which was designed to forge a sense of national identity, to win support for repeal and to develop the principle of nationality. He formulated a national curriculum to counteract the absence of national knowledge in the state schools, to provide the people with a positive self-image and ultimately to empower them to reclaim Ireland and to develop it. Davis knew the power of education and he used it as an instrument of political and social change.

Design of Scheduling Algorithms Using Game Theoretic Ideas

Scheduling a set of jobs over a collection of machines to optimize a certain quality-of-service measure is one of the most important research topics in both computer science theory and practice. In this thesis, we design algorithms that optimize {\em flow-time} (or delay) of jobs for scheduling problems that arise in a wide range of applications. We consider the classical model of unrelated machine scheduling and resolve several long standing open problems; we introduce new models that capture the novel algorithmic challenges in scheduling jobs in data centers or large clusters; we study the effect of selfish behavior in distributed and decentralized environments; we design algorithms that strive to balance the energy consumption and performance.

The technically interesting aspect of our work is the surprising connections we establish between approximation and online algorithms, economics, game theory, and queuing theory. It is the interplay of ideas from these different areas that lies at the heart of most of the algorithms presented in this thesis.

The main contributions of the thesis can be placed in one of the following categories.

1. Classical Unrelated Machine Scheduling: We give the first polygorithmic approximation algorithms for minimizing the average flow-time and minimizing the maximum flow-time in the offline setting. In the online and non-clairvoyant setting, we design the first non-clairvoyant algorithm for minimizing the weighted flow-time in the resource augmentation model. Our work introduces iterated rounding technique for the offline flow-time optimization, and gives the first framework to analyze non-clairvoyant algorithms for unrelated machines.

2. Polytope Scheduling Problem: To capture the multidimensional nature of the scheduling problems that arise in practice, we introduce Polytope Scheduling Problem (\psp). The \psp problem generalizes almost all classical scheduling models, and also captures hitherto unstudied scheduling problems such as routing multi-commodity flows, routing multicast (video-on-demand) trees, and multi-dimensional resource allocation. We design several competitive algorithms for the \psp problem and its variants for the objectives of minimizing the flow-time and completion time. Our work establishes many interesting connections between scheduling and market equilibrium concepts, fairness and non-clairvoyant scheduling, and queuing theoretic notion of stability and resource augmentation analysis.

3. Energy Efficient Scheduling: We give the first non-clairvoyant algorithm for minimizing the total flow-time + energy in the online and resource augmentation model for the most general setting of unrelated machines.

4. Selfish Scheduling: We study the effect of selfish behavior in scheduling and routing problems. We define a fairness index for scheduling policies called {\em bounded stretch}, and show that for the objective of minimizing the average (weighted) completion time, policies with small stretch lead to equilibrium outcomes with small price of anarchy. Our work gives the first linear/ convex programming duality based framework to bound the price of anarchy for general equilibrium concepts such as coarse correlated equilibrium.

Tracing Neoclassical Influences in selected solo and chamber music for the clarinet

The musical period of Neoclassicism began in the 1920's, between the first and second world wars. It was initiated by French composers and eventually spread to other countries. One of the most important themes to emerge from the movement was to escape from the formless, rather emotional music of the Romantic era and instead, emphasize balance, order, objectivity and clarity in musical form. Many popular clarinet repertoires are enjoyed by performers and listeners because the music is enjoyable to play and easy to listen to. In particular, classically influenced clarinet music is quite interesting because it features musical elements from both the past and contemporary musical styles. For instance, some composers have integrated preexisting, more traditional styles of composition with lighter styles of modern culture such as popular music and Jazz. It is difficult to discover purely neoclassical clarinet repertoires even though many composers created their pieces during the neoclassical era. What we most commonly find are both neoclassical and non-neoclassical influences in compositions from that time period. Thus, I aim to trace the influence of neoclassicism in selected clarinet repertoires that exist today. It is my hope that increased awareness and knowledge about accessible clarinet music may encourage the general public to develop a deeper interest in a wider sphere of clarinet music, beyond what is considered popular today. The works performed and discussed in this dissertation are the following: (Recital I) Duo Concertante by Darius Milhaud; Sonata by Leonard Bernstein; Sonata for Two Clarinets by Francis Poulenc; Duos for Flute and Clarinet, Op. 34 by Robert Muczynski; Dance Preludes by Witold Lutoslawski, (Recital II) Sonatine by Arthur Honegger; Time pieces by Robert Muczynski; Suite for Clarinet, Violin and Piano by Darius Milhaud; Sonate for Clarinet, Flute and Piano by Maurice Emmanuel; Tarantelle for Flute, Clarinet and Piano, Op. 6 by Camille Saint-Saëns, (Recital III) Sonatina by Joseph Horovitz; Suite from L'histoire du Soldat for Clarinet, Violin and Piano by Igor Stravinsky; Contrasts for Clarinet, Violin and Piano by Béla Bartók The recitals that took place on December 1, 2012 and on April 25, 2013 were performed in the Ulrich Recital Hall of the Clarice Performing Arts Center in College Park, Maryland. The recital that took place on November 2, 2013 was performed at the Gildenhorn Recital Hall of the same performing arts center.

An investigation of assessment policy and practices in terms of broad social and educational purposes

Based upon relevant literature, this study investigated the assessment policy and practices for the BSc (Hons) Computing Science programme at the University of Greenwich (UOG), contextualising these in terms of broad social and educational purposes. It discusses Assessment, and then proceeds to give a critical evaluation of the assessment policy and practices at the UOG. Although this is one case study, because any of the features of the programme are generic to other programmes and institutions, it is of wider value and has further implications. The study was concluded in the summer of 2002. It concludes that overall, the programme's assessment policy and practices are well considered in terms of broad social and educational purposes, although it identifies and outlines several possible improvements, as well as raising some major issues still to be addressed which go beyond assessment practices.

A case study in the teaching of HCI

This poster describes a "real world" example of the teaching of Human-Computer Interaction at the final level of a Computer Science degree. It highlights many of the problems of the ever expanding HCI domain and the consequential issues of what to teach and why. The poster describes the conception and development of a new HCI course, its historical background, the justification for decisions made, lessons learnt from its implementation, and questions arising from its implementation that are yet to be addressed. For example, should HCI be taught as a course in its own right or as a component of another course? At what level is the teaching of HCI appropriate, and how is teaching influenced by industry? It considers suitable learning pedagogies as well as the demands and the contribution of industry. The experiences presented will no doubt be familiar to many HCI educators. Whilst the poster raises more questions than it answers, the resolution of some questions will hopefully be achieved by the workshop.

Performance assessment in serious games: Compensating for the effects of randomness

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We found large effects both theoretically and practically. In two existing serious games random guess scores were found to explain up to 41% of total scores. Monte Carlo simulation of random game play confirmed the substantial impact of randomness on performance. For valid performance assessments, be it in-game or post-game, the effects of randomness should be included to produce re-calibrated scores that can reasonably be interpreted as the players´ achievements.

Seeker: A Serious Game for Improving Cognitive Abilities

Toma, I., Dascalu, M., & Trausan-Matu, S. (2015). Seeker: A Serious Game for Improving cognitive Abilities. In 14th IEEE Int. Conf. RoEduNet (pp. 73–79). Craiova, Romania: IEEE.

D4.2 – Full Design Document

This deliverable outlines the design blueprints for the RAGE application scenario games and forms the rest of the scope for WP4’s tasks. The game designs have been developed in collaboration with application scenario partners in WP5, and informed by WP1, 2 & 3. Additionally peer-feedback has been provided by game developers across WP4. The designs outline the integration of the RAGE assets developed in WP2 and WP3. Each section provides in detail the game play descriptions, game dynamics and mechanics, pedagogies and technical implementation of the RAGE assets into the game applications as described in detailed in WP5’s application documents. The full description of the application objectives and associated learning outcomes has been provided in the project’s MS2 Application Scenario Outlines document.

The Relationship between Hospital Infection Surveillance and Control Activities and Antibiotic Resistant Pathogen Rates

Objective: The purpose of the study was to examine the relationship of surveillance and control activities in Canadian hospitals with rates of nosocomial methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), C. difficile associated diarrhea (CDAD), and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Methods: Surveys were sent to Infection Control programs in hospitals that participated in an earlier survey of infection control practices in Canadian acute care hospitals. Results: One hundred and twenty of 145 (82.8%) hospitals responded to the survey. The mean MRSA rate was 2.0 (SD 2.9) per 1,000 admissions, the mean CDAD rate was 3.8 (SD 4.3), and the mean VRE rate was 0.4 (SD 1.5). Multiple stepwise regression analysis found hospitals that reported infection rates by specific risk groups (r = - 0.27, p < 0.01) and that kept attendance records of infection control teaching activities (r = - 0.23, p < 0.01) were associated with lower MRSA rates. Multiple stepwise regression analysis found larger hospitals (r = 0.25, p < 0.01) and hospitals where infection control committees or staff had the direct authority to close a ward or unit to further admissions due to outbreaks (r = 0.22, p < 0.05) were associated with higher CDAD rates. Multiple logistic regression analysis found larger hospitals (OR = 1.6, CI 1.2 - 2.0, p = 0.003) and teaching hospitals (OR = 3.7, CI 1.2 - 11.8, p = 0.02) were associated with the presence of VRE. Hospitals were less likely to have VRE when infection control staff frequently contacted physicians and nurses for reports of new infections (OR = 0.5, CI 0.3 - 0.7, p = 0.02) and there were in-service programs for updating nursing and ancillary staff on current infection control practices (OR = 0.2, CI 0.1 - 0.7, p = 0.01). Conclusions: Surveillance and control activities were associated with MRSA and CDAD rates and the presence of VRE. Surveillance and control activities might be especially beneficial in large and teaching hospitals.