Differences in underpricing returns between REIT IPOs and industrial company IPOs

This paper follows Chan, Stohs, andWang (2001), which argues that the underlying value of the real estate is not by itself the reason for the very substantial differences in underpricing returns between real estate investment trust (REIT) IPOs and industrial company IPOs.We use variables identified in previous studies that have helped explain the underpricing of industrial company IPOs to help explain the underpricing of property trust IPOs. We find that the prospectus forecast dividend yield is a critical variable in the valuation and hence underpricing of REIT IPOs compared to industrial company IPOs. The sentiment towards the market and whether or not the issue is underwritten also impact the underpricing of REITs but the impact is much less than on industrial company IPOs.

The role of dualities in arbitrating continuity and change in forms of organizing

A substantial body of literature on new forms of organizing has forecast the end of bureaucracy. More recent empirical studies, however, indicate that high-performing organizations are adopting dual forms of organizing in which the controllability advantages associated with traditional forms work to complement and support the responsiveness attributes of new forms of organizing. The paradox is that, if organizations discard the key planning, co-ordinating and direction-setting mechanisms of traditional forms of organizing, they also remove the stabilizing dimensions of organizational form that are essential in periods of uncertainty and change. The challenge for organizations lies in learning how to manage the tensions or dualities between traditional and new forms of organizing, a process demanding the arbitration of continuity and change. This paper explores the concept of dualities and its salience in the management of organizing forms. First, the nature of dualities is explained; secondly, a set of characteristics is developed to describe the behaviour of dualities; and thirdly, suggestions are presented for arbitrating the tensions that exist in organizing form dualities. These three contributions are relevant because they signal the route to the effective creation and management of organizing form dualities, the benefit of which is the constructive combination of dynamic capabilities (underpinning innovation and responsiveness, the hallmarks of new forms of organizing) and operational capabilities (underpinning stability and efficiency, the hallmarks of traditional forms of organizing).

Do retail option traders know better about market volatility?

This paper examines the informational content and predictive power of implied volatility over different forecasting horizons in a sample of European covered warrants traded in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. The empirical results show that time-series-based volatility forecasts outperform implied volatility forecast as a predictor of future volatility. The finding also suggests that implied volatility is biased and informationally inefficient. The results are attributable to the fact in Hong Kong and Singapore the covered warrants markets are dominated by retail investors, who tend to use covered warrants' leverage to speculate on the price movements of the underlying rather than to express their view on volatility.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.

MRP-production planning in agile manufacturing

Over the years many researchers have been investigating the area of MRP production planning and still is an area of high interest today. This paper look at production planning where there is unpredictable demands due to the type of product and market a company produces for. Production planning becomes difficult when demand fluctuates unpredictably, and hence a historical sales forecast is used as the initial data for production planning. The sales from previous years, especially in a seasonal market, don't necessarily correlate well to the current and future sales for the next year. A planner working in such environment would have himself frustrating to create a feasible production plan that not only needs to meet customer's demands but also to built up the 'correct' amount of stock for that peak sell season. To overcome some of these problems, This work describes a production planning methodology that can be implemented robustly and quickly. This paper has studied two multi-item lot-sizing problems. We detailed the development of the planning problem mathematically and highlight some solutions to initial problems investigated.

Changing journalism for the likely present

Media convergence and newsroom integration have become industry buzzwords as the ideas spread through newsrooms around the world. In November 2007 Fairfax Media in Australia introduced the newsroom of the future model, as its flagship newspapers moved into a purpose-built newsroom in Sydney. News Ltd, the country’s next biggest media group, is also embracing multi-media forms of reporting. What are the implications of this development for journalism? This paper examines changes in the practice of journalism in Australia and around the world. It attempts to answer the question: How does the practice of journalism need to change to prepare not for the future, but for the likely present.

Early in November 2007 The Sydney Morning Herald, the Australian Financial Review and the Sun-Herald moved into a new building dubbed the ‘newsroom of the future’ at One Darling Island Road in Sydney’s Darling Harbour precinct. Phil McLean, at the time Fairfax Media’s group executive editor and the man in charge of the move, said three quarters of the entire process involved getting people to ‘think differently’ – that is, to modify their mindset so they could work with multi-media.

The new newsroom symbolised the culmination of a series of major changes at Fairfax. In August 2006 the traditional newspaper company, John Fairfax Ltd, changed its name to Fairfax Media to reflect its multi-platform future. In March 2007 Fairfax launched Australia’s first online-only daily publication in Queensland, brisbanetimes.com.au. In May 2007 Fairfax completed its merger with Rural Press to become the biggest media company in Australasia, with annual revenues of about $2.5 billion and market capitalisation of about $7 billion. Two months later Fairfax got even bigger when it acquired at least one radio station in all Australian capital cities plus television studios when it bought Southern Cross Broadcasting. Fairfax is expected to bid for one of the two digital television licences made available by the changes to media ownership laws promulgated in May 2007.

The aim in moving Fairfax from a print to a multi-platform company was to reach as large an audience as possible. ‘We have a total readership in print of over 4 million per day and online of over 5 million per month’, CEO David Kirk said at the time of the Rural Press merger. ‘Our brand of quality, independent, balanced journalism will serve and support more communities than ever’ (Kirk 2007). A few months earlier chairman Ron Walker had written in the company’s annual report: ‘Fairfax is evolving into a truly digital media company’ (2006: 2). Within five years Fairfax would be a significantly bigger Internet company that distributed its content ‘over more media’, Kirk wrote in the same report (2006: 5).

Kirk developed a three-pronged strategy. The first part of the strategy involved the need to ‘defend and grow our newspaper publishing businesses’ – that is, to consolidate and develop the existing newspapers, whose circulations were holding steady during the week and improving on Saturdays. The second part involved plans to ‘accelerate the revenue and earnings of our digital business’. The third part was ‘to build a digital media company for the twenty-first century’ (Fairfax annual report 2006: 3). In June 2007 Kirk appointed Tim Mannes project leader for the Fairfax Media-Rural Press integration. ‘The purpose of the integration work is to bring the two companies together and build what is truly Australasia’s leading media company’, Mannes wrote in a memo to all staff on 7 June 2007. ‘It’s vital throughout this process that we maintain continuity and momentum and protect the interests and needs of our customers’ (2007: 1).

The business model appears attractive. Kirk said Fairfax’s increased scale and diversity would mean it relied less on classified lineage advertising in major metropolitan newspapers, so it could ‘rapidly develop the best online response to changing media advertising patterns’. In the two years to 2006, online’s contribution to Fairfax’s profits had grown from 1 per cent to 14 per cent with ‘much more to come’. Online’s share of the national advertising pie had grown from 2 per cent in 2002 to 10 per cent in 2006 (Beverley 2007: 6) and had jumped to 14 per cent in 2007. Analysts said they were happy with Fairfax’s move ‘from a newspaper company to a media company’ and banks such as Credit Suisse upgraded their profits forecast (AFR 19 September 2007: 37).

Planning for the move to One Darling Island Road in Sydney’s Darling Harbour started early in 2006. Fairfax CEO David Kirk took personal responsibility. He and chairman Ron Walker visited integrated sites around the world, along with a group of editorial bosses. The favoured site was The Daily Telegraph in London, which embraced convergence from June 2006. CEO Murdoch McLennan hired a consultant from Ifra, Dr Dietmar Schantin, director of the Newsplex, to facilitate the move from mono-media to multi-media at The Telegraph. Schantin said change was less about new technologies and more about altering the established mindset. The focus must be on the audience: ‘The whole idea of audience orientation seems to be quite new for some newspapers. In the past it was more “we know what is good for our readers and so we distribute the content”.’ Newspapers were a service industry whose service was information and news, he said. Newspapers had to learn to ‘serve’ its audience with the things the audience wanted to know, on any appropriate platform. ‘We start from the audience. What they want is a very important point. That does not mean that a newspaper should just do what the audience wants. The newspaper [also] needs to stick
to its core values’ (Luft 2006, Coleman 2007: 5).

Tom Curley, CEO of the world’s biggest newsgathering organisation, Associated Press, gave an important speech to the annual Knight-Bagehot dinner in New York in November 2007. The news industry had come to a fork in the road and needed to take bold steps to secure the audiences and funding to support journalism’s essential role for both the economy and democracy, he said. Otherwise the media industry would find itself ‘on an ugly path to obscurity’. He similarly emphasised the need to serve the audience: ‘Our focus must be on becoming the very best at filling people’s 24-hour news needs. That’s a huge shift from the we-know-best, gatekeeper thinking. Sourcing, fact gathering, researching, storytelling, editing [and] packaging aren’t going away’
(Curley 2007).

Kirk appointed a ‘newsroom of the future’ committee from editorial (reporters and photographers), IT and HR. The committee initiated a study tour by editorial executives of leading integrated and converged newsrooms in the UK and the US in April 2007. This became known as the ‘Tier 1’ course and involved the editor and deputy editor of The Age, and the news editor of The Sydney Morning Herald. The Herald’s editor went to the annual conference of the World Association of Newspapers in Cape Town, South Africa in June 2007 because that event featured convergence as one of its main themes (PANPA Bulletin June 2007: 6). The committee designed a two-day awareness course for senior editorial managers, known as ‘Tier 2’, that was run in Sydney in July 2007. The ‘Tier 3’ program for all editorial staff started in August 2007 and this ‘multi-media awareness program’ continued until the end of the year. A ‘Tier 4’ course for about 10 per cent of editorial staff (about 40 journalists), where they learned a range of multi-media skills, was scheduled to start after the Beijing Olympics in 2008. The author facilitated most of the Tier 2 and 3 courses.

The Tier 3 and 4 courses have profound implications for journalism education in Australia because they represent the start of major changes to how journalists work in Australia. The process reflects evolution in newsroom practices around the world. In November 2006 Ifra, the international media research company, asked newspaper executives worldwide about their priorities for 2007. The survey attracted 240 responses from 43 countries and results appeared in January 2007. Integration, editorial convergence and cross-media strategies attracted the most attention. Four in five executives rated it one of their top priorities, and half made it their main priority in terms of allocating ‘significant’ funds (Ifra 2007: 34). Ifra repeated the survey in November 2007 and published the results in January 2008. Expanding web strategies was first on the list for 2008, just ahead of editorial convergence strategies, which topped the list in 2007. Improving video and audio content jumped 14 places, and mobile phone strategies leapt 9 places between 2007 and 2008 to be near the top of the list (Ifra 2008: 8).

Analysis of IPO dividend forecasts for Australian LPTs

While dividend forecasts in the prospectuses of initial public offerings (IPOs) are common, Brown et al. (2000) have found them to be optimistically biased. This study investigates the dividend/distribution forecasts in the prospectuses of Australian LPT IPOs during the period 1994 to 2004 and finds on average that they are not optimistically biased. Because dividends have important cash flow implications for investors, this study also examines factors that might influence the magnitude of the errors between the forecast and the actual distributions. It finds that LPT IPOs that offer stapled securities have overestimated their distribution paying ability.

Optimal lag-length choice in stable and unstable VAR models under situations of homoscedasticity and ARCH

The performance of different information criteria - namely Akaike, corrected Akaike (AICC), Schwarz-Bayesian (SBC), and Hannan-Quinn - is investigated so as to choose the optimal lag length in stable and unstable vector autoregressive (VAR) models both when autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is present and when it is not. The investigation covers both large and small sample sizes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that SBC has relatively better performance in lag-choice accuracy in many situations. It is also generally the least sensitive to ARCH regardless of stability or instability of the VAR model, especially in large sample sizes. These appealing properties of SBC make it the optimal criterion for choosing lag length in many situations, especially in the case of financial data, which are usually characterized by occasional periods of high volatility. SBC also has the best forecasting abilities in the majority of situations in which we vary sample size, stability, variance structure (ARCH or not), and forecast horizon (one period or five). frequently, AICC also has good lag-choosing and forecasting properties. However, when ARCH is present, the five-period forecast performance of all criteria in all situations worsens.

Do retail option traders know better about market volatility?

This paper examines the informational content and predictive power of implied volatility over different forecasting horizons in a sample of European covered warrants traded in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. The empirical results show that time-series-based volatility forecasts outperform implied volatility forecast as predictors of future volatility. The finding also suggests that implied volatility is biased and informationally inefficient and that covered warrants are typically overvalued. The results are attributable to the fact that, in Hong Kong and Singapore, the covered warrants markets are dominated by retail investors who tend to use covered warrants' leverage to speculate on the price movements of the underlying assets rather than to express their view on volatility. Arbitrage is not possible in the markets as short-selling of covered warrants is prohibited.

Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003-2020.

Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji.

Findings – The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003-2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003-2020 period.

Originality/value – Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.

Predicting future intensive care demand in Australia

BACKGROUND: Predicting future demand for intensive care is vital to planning the allocation of resources.

METHOD: Mathematical modelling using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was applied to intensive care data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) Core Database and population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to forecast future demand in Australian intensive care.

RESULTS: The model forecasts an increase in ICU demand of over 50% by 2020, with current total ICU bed-days (in 2007) of 471 358, predicted to increase to 643 160 by 2020. An increased rate of ICU use by patients older than 80 years was also noted, with the average bed-days per 10 000 population for this group increasing from 396 in 2006 to 741 in 2007.

CONCLUSION: An increase in demand of the forecast magnitude could not be accommodated within current ICU capacity. Significant action will be required.

Will residential aged care facilities meet long-term demand?

Purpose – This paper aims to provide an invaluable insight into long-term forecasting of demand for aged care facilities. This will ensure the provision of adequate supply by government bodies, stakeholders and developers in order to meet the anticipated level of demand, without creating an over-supply or an under-supply scenario.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an innovative approach, different data sources were collectively used to forecast separate individual supply and demand levels, which were then examined together in order to measure the difference between the two variables between 2009-2020. A case study approach was used for Victoria, Australia.

Findings – The paper finds that, although there is excess supply between 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, the period between 2010 and 2019 will experience an under-supply period which cannot be easily rectified over the short term.

Research limitations/implications – The case study was limited to residential care facilities in Victoria, Australia, although some countries have substantially different age profiles and accommodation supply for older residents. Forecasts are based on information sources from various data suppliers and collectively analysed.

Practical implications – The results are also of direct interest to place managers and planning authorities who are charged with providing medium- and long-term visions and plans for specific locations. This type of research is essential when planning for the eventual aging of the population, where the methodology can be replicated in different areas. Most importantly, this research approach provides a solid basis for decisions regarding the supply of residential aged care facilities as opposed to a simple estimate.

Originality/value – The study adopted a unique approach to analysing the individual supply and demand components for aged care facilities over the long term. This approach is able to accurately determine when there will be an under-supply or over-supply situation and thus provide the opportunity to address the difference before it occurs. This will allow informed decisions about planning aged care facilities in the future to be made as required.

Neurofuzzy decision support system for efficient risk allocation in public-private partnership infrastructure projects

The performance of public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects is largely contingent on whether the adopted risk allocation (RA) strategy is efficient. Theoretical frameworks drawing on the transaction cost economics and the resource-based view of organizational capability are able to explain the underlying mechanism but unable to accurately forecast efficient RA strategies. In this paper, a neurofuzzy decision support system (NFDSS) was developed to assist in the RA decision-making process in PPP projects. By combining fuzzy and neural network techniques, a synthesized fuzzy inference system was established and taken as the core component of the NFDSS. Evaluation results show that the NFDSS can forecast efficient RA strategies for PPP infrastructure projects at a highly accurate and effective level. A real PPP infrastructure project is used to demonstrate the NFDSS and its practical significance.

An empirical analysis of Fiji’s import demand function

Purpose – This paper aims to estimate a disaggregated import demand model for Fiji using relative prices, total consumption, investment expenditure and export expenditure variables for the period 1970 to 2000.

Design/methodology/approach – The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration to test for a long run relationship is used, while the autoregressive distributed lag model is used to estimate short run and long run elasticities. These methodologies are shown to perform well in small sample sizes, particularly given that the bounds F-test critical values for small sample sizes generated by Narayan in 2004 and 2005 are used.

Findings – Amongst the key results it is found: a long run cointegration relationship among the variables when import demand is the dependent variable; and import demand to be inelastic and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level with respect to all the explanatory variables in both the long-run and the short-run.

Originality/value – The disaggregated import demand model estimated here provides a complete picture of the determinants of Fiji's imports. This model can be used by Fijian policy makers to draw pertinent policies and forecast import demand for Fiji.

Experiments toward a practical implementation of an intelligent kanban system

This paper presents laboratory experiments to test a bottom up approach to production control and supply chain management. Built upon the successful traditional kanban (Card) system, the new intelligent system associates a kanban agent to each physical kanban. Instead of relying on demand forecast and planning, kanban agents reason about their own movements to adapt to changing demands. After previous simulations results of the intelligent system showed significant performance improvements over the traditional system, we further use the Auto-ID Laboratory at Cambridge University to test the feasibility of the idea in a realistic manufacturing environment. The results from the experiments demonstrated the superiority on several performance measures of the intelligent system compared to the traditional system used as a benchmark. Moreover, the implementation of the experiments exposed several real world constraints not shown in the simulation study and practical solutions were adopted to address these.