Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

Saprolegnia infections of salmonid fish

This paper deals firstly with the identification and characteristics of fungal pathogens that colonize salmonids and then considers the relative importance of the condition of the host fish and the environmental factors which may influence the interaction between pathogen and host.

Effects of stress on the immune system of fish

The effects of stress on the immune system of various fish species including dab Limanda limanda, flounder Platichthys flesus, sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax and gobies Zosterisessor ophiocephalus, were investigated from laboratory and field experiments, using various assays to measure immunocompetence, correlated with histological and ultrastructural observations. Modulation of the immune system was demonstrated at tissue, cellular and biochemical levels following exposure to various stressors. The spleen somatic index was depressed in dab stressed in the laboratory and gobies collected from polluted sites in the Venice Lagoon. Differential blood cell counts consistently showed an increase in phagocytes and decrease in thrombocytes in fish exposed to various stressors. Phagocytic activity from spleen and kidney adherent cells was stimulated in dab stressed by transportation but depressed in fish exposed to chemical pollutants. Respiratory burst activity in phagocytic cells was also stimulated in stressed dab but depressed in sea bass exposed to cadmium. The results are discussed in relation to current concepts on stress in fish and the regulation of the immune system.

The production of freshwater fish for food

It has been estimated that in England and Wales fresh water covers some 340 square miles of which about one quarter is inhabited mainly by salmon and trout; in Scotland the lakes cover an area of 340 square miles. The principal object of this publication is to make available in handy form some of the methods, especially those involving the use of manures, by which crops of fish from water can be increased. The cultivation of water which this implies may be compared directly to the cultivation of farm land: the conditions for growth are made as favourable as possible, the seed is sown in the form of young fish, and after one or perhaps two growing seasons the crop is harvested. There are however many waters about the country where marketable fish are already available and can be removed without prejudice to, and indeed to the advantage of, sporting fisheries. In such cases it is necessary only to remove the fish and to rely on the natural processes of reproduction of those which are left to repopulate the water. Farming waters in the true sense is the concern of the greater part of this publication; the removal of crops of otherwise unwanted fish is considered in the last two sections on perch trapping and eel fisheries.

Biology and Management of the American Shad and Status of the Fisheries, Atlantic Coast of the United States, 1960

This paper summarizes current information on the American shad, Alosa sapidissima, and describes the species and its fishery. Emphasis is placed on (1) life history of the fish, (2) condition of the fishery by State and water areas in 1960 compared to 1896 when the last comprehensive description was made, (3) factors responsible for decline in abundance, and (4) management measures. The shad fishery has changed little over the past three-quarters of a century, except in magnitude of yield. Types of shad-fishing gear have remained relatively unchanged, but many improvements have been made in fishing techniques, mostly to achieve economy. In 1896 the estimated catch was more than 50 million pounds. New Jersey ranked first in production with about 14 million pounds, and Virginia second with 11 million pounds. In 1960 the estimated catch was slightly more than 8 million pounds. Maryland ranked first in production with slightly more than 1.5 million pounds, Virginia second with slightly less than 1.4 million pounds, and North Carolina third with about 1.3 million pounds. Biological and economic factors blamed for the decline in shad abundance, such as physical changes in the environment, construction of dams, pollution, over-fishing, and natural cycles of abundance, are discussed. Also discussed are methods used for the rehabilitation and management of the fishery, such as artificial propagation, installation of fish-passage facilities at impoundments, and fishing regulations. With our present knowledge, we can manage individual shad populations; but, we probably cannot restore the shad to its former peak of abundance.

An investigation into the potential losses of fish on the filter plates at the Hodder Water Treatment Works Stocks Reservoir

Stocks Reservoir is situated amidst the Forest of Bowland in the upper reaches of the old river valley of the Hodder. The reservoir was built in 1927 for the Fylde Water Board who primarily supplied water to Blackpool. The objective of this study is to assess the degree and likelihood of fish ingress onto the fish plates at the present and proposed stocking densities. An additional aim is to evaluate the operational implications, and if necessary suggest methods of alleviating the problem. Three spheres of study have been undertaken to achieve these objectives, these being: 1. To selectively stock the reservoir and monitor the angling club catches in order to assess the total population, relating it to fish plate losses and proposed stocking densities. 2. To monitor the fish taken from the fish plates and assess the reasons for their ingress. 3. To study the draw off tower and fish plates, and suggest ways of ameliorating or halting the loss of fish and consequent operational problems.

Environmental quality standards to protect identified uses of controlled waters: salmonid fisheries, cyprinid fisheries, migratory fisheries, commercial harvesting of marine fish for public consumption, commercial harvesting of shellfish for for public consumption

This report considers the development of environmental quality standards (EQSs) for the salmonid fishery, cyprinid fishery, migratory fishery, commercial harvesting of marine fish for public consumption and commercial harvesting of shellfish for public consumption uses of controlled surface waters. Previous reports have been used to identify those parameters necessary for the maintenance of these five uses. Each water use is considered in a separate section within which identified parameters are discussed and standards proposed, a summary of the proposed standards is presented at the beginning of the relevant section. For salmonid, cyprinid and migratory fisheries, EQSs for substances in water have been proposed for the protection of these fisheries. For the commercial harvesting of marine fish and shellfish for public consumption uses 'Warning Levels' of substances in waters have been proposed. These 'Warning Levels' have been proposed by considering data on bioaccumulation and food standards and aim to prevent acceptable intake values and concentrations in fish/shellfish flesh exceeding statutory or recommended levels. For the commercial harvesting of marine fish for public consumption it has been concluded that the current EQSs for most List II substances for the protection of salt water life should be adequately stringent to protect this use, however for the commercial harvesting of shellfish for public consumption, these List II EQSs do not appear adequate to protect this use and more stringent 'Warning Levels' have been proposed. For all five uses considered in this report there has been found to be limited information on a number of the parameters considered and in general for indigenous species, this has been found to be especially so when considering migratory fisheries and the commercial harvesting of marine fish and shellfish.

Review of NRA tracking projects on salmon, Salmo salar L., and sea trout, Salmo trutta L

The report briefly outlines the programme of the National Rivers Authority (NRA), placing the Fisheries programme in the context of the work of the NRA as a whole, and viewing the tracking work against the broader requirements of the NRA Fisheries research programme. All regions of England and Wales are considered. Two techniques currently exist for studying the detailed timing and extent of movements of adult salmon: tracking of individually identifiable fish, and counting the numbers of fish moving past a fixed point in the river. The development of tracking techniques and the integrated use of tracking and fish counters is briefly reviewed in Section 3. Further details of these techniques are given in Appendices. Section 4 summarises and assesses completed and current NRA tracking studies. Section 5 discusses the scientific content of these studies in relation to similar work carried out elsewhere in the UK. The NRA programme of tracking studies is evaluated in Section 6. Section 7 discusses future fisheries projects and Section 8 details the future development of tracking techniques. Finally, recommendations arising out of this review are summarised in Section 9.

Summary document of the work being done in 1992-1993 regarding the migratory salmonid fisheries of the River Ribble catchment

This document lists the work on salmonid fisheries in the River Ribble catchment in the north west of England which was done in 1992-93. The document includes the following: analysis of historical catch data from the River Ribble covering 1937-1991; Ribble and Hodder stock assessment surveys 1992-93 including Swanside Beck; Ribble catch data from game angling log books 1993; results of salmon scale sampling 1993; results of microtagging programme in Hodder and Ribble 1993; Waddow Weir dish counter data 1993; Winkley Hall (Hodder), Locks Weir and Waddow Hall (Ribble) fish counter data 1993; number of fish and ova from Witcherwell Hatchery 1993.

Evaluation of NRA tracking studies. Future projects and technical development

Fish tracking is a valuable technique for the provision of detailed information on the behaviour patterns of individual fish especially during estuarine and riverine migration. 2. Tracking studies help in the provision of a comprehensive description of the variety offish behaviour patterns in response to factors such as water flow, obstructions and water quality. 3. There are advantages to be gained by complementing fish tracking studies with data collected from fish counters and vice versa. 4. An overall evaluation of NRA fish tracking projects is presented in the wider context of NRA strategic research objectives. 5. The requirement for future development of tracking equipment, improved data analysis techniques, better communication and more immediate report preparation is identified. 6. Individual project evaluation is given for NRA (or the appropriate Water Authority predecessor) tracking studies conducted on the Ribble estuary, the River Tamar, River Torridge, Rivers Test and Itchen, River Lodden, the Welsh River Dee, River Glaslyn, River Taff, River Tawe, River Tywi, River Usk, Rivers Avon and Stour and the River Frome. 7. An outline for future strategic research is provided which identifies particular areas for study:- i) Identification of environmental factors which control the entry of fish into rivers. ii) Improvement of the understanding of the relationship between water flow and upstream movement of salmonids. iii) Examination of the detailed movements and behaviour of fish in relation to obstructions. iv) Closer definition of water quality requirements for salmonid fish. v) Definition of habitat preferences of salmonids in rivers. vi) Subsidiary topics such as the movements of non-salmonid fish and the downstream migration of kelts and juvenile salmonids.

An investigation into the effects of electric fishing equipment on salmon and sea trout within the area of the Lancashire River Board.

The report looks at experiments into electric fishing equipment and effects on salmon and trout within the Lancashire River Board. Experiments include obtaining information on voltage gradients, ascertaining what damage to fish of the larger size groups resulted from electric fishing, determining whether or not fractures could occur in coarse fish and brown trout,similar to those occurring in salmon and sea trout, and effects low temperatures have on electrofishing techniques.

Design and implementation of fishery modules in integrated household surveys in developing countries

Fish and other aquatic animals contribute to the food security of citizens of developing countries, both as a source of income and as a component of healthy diets, yet fishing is not currently captured in most integrated household surveys. This sourcebook provides essential technical guidance on the design of statistical modules and questionnaires aimed at collecting fishery data at the household level. Background on the main policies important to the fishery sector, information on the data needed to analyze issues of policy relevance, and methodology on the construction of survey questions to collect necessary data are also provided. The document is organized to provide essential technical guidance on how to design statistical modules and questionnaires aimed at collecting fishery data at the household level. It includes an overview of the main technical and statistical challenges related to sampling fishery-dependent households. The document starts with an introductory section identifying the potential reasons why fisheries and in particular small-scale fisheries have not been adequately included in national statistical systems in a large number of countries. The report then proposes a succinct review of what is known (and what remains unknown) about small-scale fisheries and their contribution to the livelihoods of households in sub-Saharan Africa. It also provides readers with background on the main policies that are important to the fishery sector, information on the data needed to analyze issues of policy relevance, and methodology on the construction of survey questions to collect necessary data.

Evaluation of bioelectrical impedance analysis and Fulton’s condition factor as nonlethal techniques for estimating short-term responses in postsmolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to food availabili

We evaluated measures of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and Fulton’s condition factor (K) as potential nonlethal indices for detecting short-term changes in nutritional condition of postsmolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Fish reared in the laboratory for 27 days were fed, fasted, or fasted and then refed. Growth rates and proximate body composition (protein, fat, water) were measured in each fish to evaluate nutritional status and condition. Growth rates of fish responded rapidly to the absence or reintroduction of food, whereas body composition (% wet weight) remained relatively stable owing to isometric growth in fed fish and little loss of body constituents in fasted fish, resulting in nonsignificant differences in body composition among feeding treatments. The utility of BIA and Fulton’s K as condition indices requires differences in body composition. In our study, BIA measures were not significantly different among the three feeding treatments, and only on the final day of sampling was K of fasted vs. fed fish significantly different. BIA measures were correlated with body composition content; however, wet weight was a better predictor of body composition on both a content and concentration (% wet weight) basis. Because fish were growing isometrically, neither BIA nor K was well correlated with growth rate. For immature fish, where growth rate, rather than energy reserves, is a more important indicator of fish condition, a nonlethal index that reflects shortterm changes in growth rate or the potential for growth would be more suitable as a condition index than either BIA measures or Fulton�

Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

Ontogenetic and temporal variability in the fat content and fatty acid composition of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from the Bay of Fundy, Canada

Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) is an ecologically and economically valuable species in many food webs, yet surprisingly little is known about the variation in the nutritional quality of these fish. Atlantic herring collected from 2005 through 2008 from the Bay of Fundy, Canada, were examined for variability in their nutritional quality by using total lipid content (n=889) and fatty acid composition (n=551) as proxies for nutritional value. A significant positive relationship was found between fish length and total lipid content. Atlantic herring also had significantly different fatty acid signatures by age. Fish from 2005 had significantly lower total lipid content than fish from 2006 through 2008, and all years had significantly different fatty acid signatures. Summer fish were significantly fatter than winter fish and had significantly different fatty acid signatures. For all comparisons (ontogenetic, annual, and seasonal) percent concentrations of omega-3, -6, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids were the most important for distinguishing between the fatty acid signatures of fish. This study underscores the importance of quantifying variation in prey quality synoptically with prey quantity in food webs over ontogenetic and temporal scales when evaluating the effect of prey nutritional quality on predators and on modeling trophic dynamics.