The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Adaptive multiscale principal components analysis for online monitoring of wastewater treatment

Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.

Kinematics of oblique collision and ramping inferred from microstructures and strain in middle crustal rocks, central Southern Alps, New Zealand

The hanging wall of the Alpine Fault near Franz Josef Glacier has been exhumed during the past similar to2-3 m.y. providing a sample of the ductilely deformed middle crust of a modem obliquely convergent orogen. Presently exposed rocks of the Pacific Plate are inferred to have undergone several phases of ductile deformation as they moved westward above a mid-crustal detachment. Initially they were transpressed across the outboard part of the orogen, resulting in oblate fabrics with a down-dip stretch. Later, they encountered the Alpine Fault, experiencing an oblique-slip backshearing on vertical planes. This escalator-like deformation tilted and thinned the incoming crust onto that crustal-scale oblique ramp. This style of hanging wall deformation may affect only the most rapidly uplifting, central part of the Southern Alps because of the low flexural rigidity of the crust in that region and its displacement over a relatively sharp ramp-angle at depth. A 3D transpressive flow affected mylonites locally near the fault, but their shear direction remained parallel to plate motion, ruling out ductile 'extrusion' as an important process in this orogen. Outside the mylonite zone, late Cenozoic shortening is inferred to be modest (30-40%), as measured from deformation of younger biotite grains. Oblique collision is dominated by translation on the Alpine Fault, and rocks migrate rapidly through the deforming zone, preventing the accumulation of large finite strains. Transpression may play a minor role in oblique collision. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Reforming the law of medical negligence: Solutions in search of a problem

The Commonwealth Government's Principles Based Review of the Law of Negligence recently recommended reforms aimed at limiting liability and damages arising from personal injury and death, in response to the growing perception that the current system of compensating personal injury had become financially unsustainable. Recent increases in medical liability and damages have eroded the confidence of doctors and their professional bodies, with fears of unprecedented desertion from and reduced recruitment into high risk areas, and one of the primary foci of the review concerned medical negligence. The article analyses proposals to redefine the principles necessary for the finding of negligence, against the terms of reference of the review. The article assumes that for the foreseeable future, Australia will persist with tort-based compensation for personal injury rather than developing a no-fault scheme. If the suggested changes to the fundamental principles of negligence are unlikely to reduce medical liability, greater attention might be given to the processes which come into play after the finding of negligence, where reform is more likely to benefit both plaintiffs and defendants.

Read the whole thing: Journalism, weblogs and the re-mediation of the war in Iraq

This paper examines a particular form of online activity-weblogging, and how it has allowed for specific new forms of popular political communication in the context of the Second Gulf War. After describing the basics of weblogging, the paper discusses Western media coverage of the war and then shows how 'warbloggers' positioned themselves vis-à-vis media coverage and propaganda, creating commentaries that frequently combined media and political criticism. While bloggers of every political hue offered a range of perspectives and personal styles, some general tendencies are evident in warblogging discourse. The piece ends by questioning the significance of warblogging in terms of its potential contribution to democratic communication.

Evolu????o recente e alguns determinantes da prote????o social dos idosos na Am??rica Latina e no Brasil

A exist??ncia de um sistema de prote????o social aos idosos, com ampla cobertura, ?? extremamente importante para prevenir o aumento da pobreza e da desigualdade. Na aus??ncia de tal sistema, e frente a transforma????es demogr??ficas e da estrutura familiar presentes em grande parte dos pa??ses da Am??rica Latina, haver?? riscos crescentes de que tanto o Brasil, como outros pa??ses da regi??o, sofram com problemas de insufici??ncia de renda entre as pessoas com idade mais avan??ada. Dado esse contexto, este artigo avalia a situa????o atual e as perspectivas de prote????o dos idosos na Am??rica Latino Americano e Caribenho de Demografia (Celade/Cepal) e em revis??o de literatura sobre o tema. As an??lises indicaram que o aumento do n??vel de prote????o social na regi??o parece depender de formas de financiamento n??o baseadas exclusivamente em contribui????es monet??rias individuais, de modo que seja poss??vel incorporar aqueles grupos incapazes de manter contribui????es regulares para os regimes de Previd??ncia.

A experi??ncia do microempreendedor individual na amplia????o da cobertura previdenci??ria no Brasil

O mercado de trabalho brasileiro ?? caracterizado por elevada informalidade e por alto grau de desprote????o previdenci??ria. Entre os principais componentes da referida desprote????o est??o os chamados trabalhadores por conta pr??pria, que respondem por grande parcela do total de desprotegidos. Nesse sentido, a amplia????o da cobertura passa, necessariamente, por medidas que ampliem a prote????o social dos trabalhadores por conta pr??pria. J?? foram tomadas medidas no passado como, por exemplo, o Plano Simplificado, sem impacto significativo. Mais recentemente, foi institu??do o Programa MicroEmpreendedor Individual, que, depois de dois anos do in??cio do seu funcionamento em n??vel nacional, j?? registrava 2,1 milh??es de ades??es. O referido programa combina tratamento tribut??rio diferenciado e favorecido; simplifica????o e racionaliza????o da burocracia; apoio aos microempreendedores e benef??cios pela formaliza????o. O artigo apresenta a l??gica do programa e sua evolu????o, bem como discute os riscos, cuidados e necessidades de avan??os adicionais.

Efeitos do acompanhamento de analistas e da dupla listagem sobre o disclosure voluntário durante o processo de convergência ao padrão IFRS no Brasil

Objetivou-se com o presente trabalho, estudar os efeitos da convergência às normas internacionais de contabilidade (IFRS), da cobertura de analistas financeiros e da emissão de American Depositary Receipts - ADR, sobre o disclosure voluntário das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA. Partindo-se da análise de 14 trabalhos acadêmicos, desenvolveu-se um índice de disclosure voluntário contendo um total de 38 itens, sendo 25 itens de natureza financeira, econômica e organizacional e 13 itens de natureza social e ambiental. O check list do índice desenvolvido foi aplicado sobre 1.406 documentos (notas explicativas e relatórios da administração, contendo 58,2 mil páginas), de uma amostra com 703 observações - ano, obtidas durante os anos de 2006 a 2013. Utilizando-se do teste de Wilcoxon, os resultados apontam incrementos estatisticamente significantes nos níveis de disclosure voluntário durante o período de convergência ao padrão IFRS no Brasil, sendo mais significativos elementos de natureza econômica, financeira e organizacional do que os de natureza social e ambiental. Utilizando-se de modelos OLS robustos, aplicados sobre dados em painel desbalanceado, os resultados dos testes econométricos confirmaram parcialmente a hipótese de que o padrão IFRS contribuiu no desenvolvimento do disclosure voluntário das empresas com maior acompanhamento de analistas financeiros, porém, significativamente para as empresas que emitiram American Depositary Receipts (ADR) durante o período de convergência às normas internacionais de contabilidade. Os resultados são robustos e significativos quando controlados por variáveis representativas do tamanho (TAM), da rentabilidade (RENT), do endividamento (ALAV) e de auditoria de uma big – four (AUDI) como determinantes do disclosure voluntário durante o período de convergência ao padrão IFRS no Brasil.

Acessibilidade e longitudinalidade no pré-natal : análise de um grupo de puérperas atendidas no Hospital Universitário Cassiano Antônio de Moraes

A atenção primária visa garantir cobertura e acesso a cuidados de saúde abrangentes e aceitáveis pela população enfatizando a prevenção e a educação (STARFIELD, 2004). No Brasil a Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) é o modelo implantado pelo Ministério da Saúde (MS) com a finalidade de reestruturação da atenção primária e já abrange cerca de 50% da população. Segundo Starfield (2004) a atenção primária pode ser avaliada através de seus atributos essenciais: atenção de primeiro contato (utilização e acessibilidade), longitudinalidade, integralidade e coordenação de cuidados. No contexto da atenção à saúde brasileira, a mortalidade infantil é fato preocupante, principalmente a mortalidade que ocorre nos primeiros dias de vida. Este componente da mortalidade é intimamente relacionado à qualidade da atenção recebida no período gestacional. A atenção pré-natal deve incluir ações organizadas, amplas, integradas e com cobertura abrangente de promoção e prevenção da saúde, além de diagnóstico e tratamento adequado dos problemas que possam vir a ocorrer nesse período. O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar o pré-natal de um grupo de puérperas quanto aos atributos da atenção primária acessibilidade e longitudinalidade. Para alcançar este objetivo foram realizadas 80 entrevistas com mulheres que realizaram pré-natal na atenção primária e 19 mulheres que realizaram pré-natal no Hospital Universitário Cassiano Antônio de Moraes (HUCAM). Utilizou-se parcialmente o questionário de avaliação da atenção primária PCATool. As puérperas também foram questionadas quanto à percepção da adequação do pré-natal realizado. A acessibilidade foi baixa para a maioria das entrevistadas. Nas puérperas que realizaram o pré-natal na Atenção primária a acessibilidade foi estatisticamente maior naquelas que realizaram pré-natal na ESF e naquelas que utilizaram as unidades de saúde do município de Vitória (ES). A longitudinalidade se relacionou ao tipo de unidade de saúde do pré-natal, ao número de consultas realizadas e ao índice de Ápgar no primeiro minuto. A percepção de um pré-natal adequado se relacionou com a utilização da ESF como serviço de pré-natal e à realização de seis ou mais consultas. Apesar de as puérperas do grupo que realizou o pré-natal no HUCAM perceberem o atendimento pré-natal como adequado, algumas questões revelaram fragilidades na assistência, principalmente quanto ao acesso ao serviço. A impossibilidade de receber atendimento pela equipe fora dos horários de funcionamento do ambulatório, a falta de um número de telefone no qual possam sanar dúvidas ou falar com o médico responsável pelo pré-natal, a percepção de dificuldade na marcação de consultas e a espera prolongada no dia do atendimento são pontos que devem ser melhorados nessa assistência.