Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Diurnal cycle of fossil and nonfossil carbon using radiocarbon analyses during CalNex

Radiocarbon (14C) analysis is a unique tool to distinguish fossil/nonfossil sources of carbonaceous aerosols. We present 14C measurements of organic carbon (OC) and total carbon (TC) on highly time resolved filters (3–4 h, typically 12 h or longer have been reported) from 7 days collected during California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 in Pasadena. Average nonfossil contributions of 58% ± 15% and 51% ± 15% were found for OC and TC, respectively. Results indicate that nonfossil carbon is a major constituent of the background aerosol, evidenced by its nearly constant concentration (2–3 μgC m−3). Cooking is estimated to contribute at least 25% to nonfossil OC, underlining the importance of urban nonfossil OC sources. In contrast, fossil OC concentrations have prominent and consistent diurnal profiles, with significant afternoon enhancements (~3 μgC m−3), following the arrival of the western Los Angeles (LA) basin plume with the sea breeze. A corresponding increase in semivolatile oxygenated OC and organic vehicular emission markers and their photochemical reaction products occurs. This suggests that the increasing OC is mostly from fresh anthropogenic secondary OC (SOC) from mainly fossil precursors formed in the western LA basin plume. We note that in several European cities where the diesel passenger car fraction is higher, SOC is 20% less fossil, despite 2–3 times higher elemental carbon concentrations, suggesting that SOC formation from gasoline emissions most likely dominates over diesel in the LA basin. This would have significant implications for our understanding of the on-road vehicle contribution to ambient aerosols and merits further study.

Localization of impacted maxillary canines and root resorption of neighbouring teeth: a study assessing the diagnostic value of panoramic radiographs in two groups of observers.

OBJECTIVES To assess the diagnostic value of panoramic views (2D) of patients with impacted maxillary canines by a group of trained orthodontists and oral surgeons, and to quantify the subjective need and reasons for further three-dimensional (3D) imaging. MATERIALS AND METHODS The study comprises 60 patients with panoramic radiographs (2D) and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans (3D), and a total of 72 impacted canines. Data from a standardized questionnaire were compared within (intragroup) and between (intergroup) a group of orthodontists and oral surgeons to assess possible correlations and differences. Furthermore, the questionnaire data were compared with the findings from the CBCT scans to estimate the correlation within and between the two specialties. Finally, the need and reasons for further 3D imaging was analysed for both groups. RESULTS When comparing questionnaire data with the analysis of the respective CBCT scans, orthodontists showed probability (Pr) values ranging from 0.443 to 0.943. Oral surgeons exhibited Pr values from 0.191 to 0.946. Statistically significant differences were found for the labiopalatal location of the impacted maxillary canine (P = 0.04), indicating a higher correlation in the orthodontist group. The most frequent reason mentioned for the further need of 3D analysis was the labiopalatal location of the impacted canines. Oral surgeons were more in favour of performing further 3D imaging (P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS Orthodontists were more likely to diagnose the exact labiopalatal position of impacted maxillary canines when using panoramic views only. Generally, oral surgeons more often indicated the need for further 3D imaging.

Invasive coronary treatment strategies for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a consensus statement from the European association for percutaneous cardiovascular interventions (EAPCI)/stent for life (SFL) groups

Due to significant improvement in the pre-hospital treatment of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), an increasing number of initially resuscitated patients are being admitted to hospitals. Because of the limited data available and lack of clear guideline recommendations, experts from the EAPCI and "Stent for Life" (SFL) groups reviewed existing literature and provided practical guidelines on selection of patients for immediate coronary angiography (CAG), PCI strategy, concomitant antiplatelet/anticoagulation treatment, haemodynamic support and use of therapeutic hypothermia. Conscious survivors of OHCA with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) should be treated according to recommendations for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and high-risk non-ST-segment elevation -ACS (NSTE-ACS) without OHCA and should undergo immediate (if STEMI) or rapid (less than two hours if NSTE-ACS) coronary invasive strategy. Comatose survivors of OHCA with ECG criteria for STEMI on the post-resuscitation ECG should be admitted directly to the catheterisation laboratory. For patients without STEMI ECG criteria, a short "emergency department or intensive care unit stop" is advised to exclude non-coronary causes. In the absence of an obvious non-coronary cause, CAG should be performed as soon as possible (less than two hours), in particular in haemodynamically unstable patients. Immediate PCI should be mainly directed towards the culprit lesion if identified. Interventional cardiologists should become an essential part of the "survival chain" for patients with OHCA. There is a need to centralise the care of patients with OHCA to experienced centres.

Fossil vs. non-fossil sources of fine carbonaceous aerosols in four Chinese cities during the extreme winter haze episode of 2013

During winter 2013, extremely high concentrations (i.e., 4–20 times higher than the World Health Organization guideline) of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) mass concentrations (24 h samples) were found in four major cities in China including Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Statistical analysis of a combined data set from elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), 14C and biomass-burning marker measurements using Latin hypercube sampling allowed a quantitative source apportionment of carbonaceous aerosols. Based on 14C measurements of EC fractions (six samples each city), we found that fossil emissions from coal combustion and vehicle exhaust dominated EC with a mean contribution of 75 ± 8% across all sites. The remaining 25 ± 8% was exclusively attributed to biomass combustion, consistent with the measurements of biomass-burning markers such as anhydrosugars (levoglucosan and mannosan) and water-soluble potassium (K+). With a combination of the levoglucosan-to-mannosan and levoglucosan-to-K+ ratios, the major source of biomass burning in winter in China is suggested to be combustion of crop residues. The contribution of fossil sources to OC was highest in Beijing (58 ± 5%) and decreased from Shanghai (49 ± 2%) to Xi'an (38 ± 3%) and Guangzhou (35 ± 7%). Generally, a larger fraction of fossil OC was from secondary origins than primary sources for all sites. Non-fossil sources accounted on average for 55 ± 10 and 48 ± 9% of OC and total carbon (TC), respectively, which suggests that non-fossil emissions were very important contributors of urban carbonaceous aerosols in China. The primary biomass-burning emissions accounted for 40 ± 8, 48 ± 18, 53 ± 4 and 65 ± 26% of non-fossil OC for Xi'an, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, respectively. Other non-fossil sources excluding primary biomass burning were mainly attributed to formation of secondary organic carbon (SOC) from non-fossil precursors such as biomass-burning emissions. For each site, we also compared samples from moderately to heavily polluted days according to particulate matter mass. Despite a significant increase of the absolute mass concentrations of primary emissions from both fossil and non-fossil sources during the heavily polluted events, their relative contribution to TC was even decreased, whereas the portion of SOC was consistently increased at all sites. This observation indicates that SOC was an important fraction in the increment of carbonaceous aerosols during the haze episode in China.

Prognostic factors and risk groups in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients initially treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin: results of a retrospective multicenter study of 2451 patients

BACKGROUND The impact of prognostic factors in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) patients is critical for proper treatment decision making. OBJECTIVE To assess prognostic factors in patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as initial intravesical treatment of T1G3 tumors and to identify a subgroup of high-risk patients who should be considered for more aggressive treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual patient data were collected for 2451 T1G3 patients from 23 centers who received BCG between 1990 and 2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Using Cox multivariable regression, the prognostic importance of several clinical variables was assessed for time to recurrence, progression, BCa-specific survival, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS With a median follow-up of 5.2 yr, 465 patients (19%) progressed, 509 (21%) underwent cystectomy, and 221 (9%) died because of BCa. In multivariable analyses, the most important prognostic factors for progression were age, tumor size, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS); the most important prognostic factors for BCa-specific survival and OS were age and tumor size. Patients were divided into four risk groups for progression according to the number of adverse factors among age ≥ 70 yr, size ≥ 3 cm, and presence of CIS. Progression rates at 10 yr ranged from 17% to 52%. BCa-specific death rates at 10 yr were 32% in patients ≥ 70 yr with tumor size ≥ 3 cm and 13% otherwise. CONCLUSIONS T1G3 patients ≥ 70 yr with tumors ≥ 3 cm and concomitant CIS should be treated more aggressively because of the high risk of progression. PATIENT SUMMARY Although the majority of T1G3 patients can be safely treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin, there is a subgroup of T1G3 patients with age ≥ 70 yr, tumor size ≥ 3 cm, and concomitant CIS who have a high risk of progression and thus require aggressive treatment.

Sheaf representations of MV-algebras and lattice-ordered abelian groups via duality

We study representations of MV-algebras -- equivalently, unital lattice-ordered abelian groups -- through the lens of Stone-Priestley duality, using canonical extensions as an essential tool. Specifically, the theory of canonical extensions implies that the (Stone-Priestley) dual spaces of MV-algebras carry the structure of topological partial commutative ordered semigroups. We use this structure to obtain two different decompositions of such spaces, one indexed over the prime MV-spectrum, the other over the maximal MV-spectrum. These decompositions yield sheaf representations of MV-algebras, using a new and purely duality-theoretic result that relates certain sheaf representations of distributive lattices to decompositions of their dual spaces. Importantly, the proofs of the MV-algebraic representation theorems that we obtain in this way are distinguished from the existing work on this topic by the following features: (1) we use only basic algebraic facts about MV-algebras; (2) we show that the two aforementioned sheaf representations are special cases of a common result, with potential for generalizations; and (3) we show that these results are strongly related to the structure of the Stone-Priestley duals of MV-algebras. In addition, using our analysis of these decompositions, we prove that MV-algebras with isomorphic underlying lattices have homeomorphic maximal MV-spectra. This result is an MV-algebraic generalization of a classical theorem by Kaplansky stating that two compact Hausdorff spaces are homeomorphic if, and only if, the lattices of continuous [0, 1]-valued functions on the spaces are isomorphic.

In Search of Political Influence: Strategic Choices and Media Coverage of Political Parties, Interest Groups and Social Movements in Western European Countries

Outside lobbying is a key strategy for social movements, interest groups and political parties for mobilising public opinion through the media in order to pressure policymakers and influence the policymaking process. Relying on semi-structured interviews and newspaper content analysis in six Western European countries, this article examines the use of four outside lobbying strategies – media-related activities, informing (about) the public, mobilisation and protest – and the amount of media coverage they attract. While some strategies are systematically less pursued than others, we find variation in their relative share across institutional contexts and actor types. Given that most of these differences are not accurately mirrored in the media, we conclude that media coverage is only loosely connected to outside lobbying behaviour, and that the media respond differently to a given strategy when used by different actors. Thus, the ability of different outside lobbying strategies to generate media coverage critically depends on who makes use of them.

Perceived Competition Explains Regional Differences in the Stereotype Content of Immigrant Groups

This research investigates differences in the stereotype content of immigrant groups between linguistic regions. We expected that immigrant groups who speak the local language of a specific linguistic region would be perceived as more competitive within this region than in another linguistic region. Further, we expected these differences would underlie regional differences in stereotype content, albeit only for the warmth dimension. Predictions were tested in the two largest linguistic regions of Switzerland. As expected, in the German-speaking region, locals perceived German immigrants as more competitive and thus as less warm, whereas in the French-speaking region, locals perceived French immigrants as more competitive and, consequently, as less warm. So, paradoxically, immigrants with strong integration potential are particularly disliked because they are regarded as direct competitors.

Stereotype Content Associated with Immigrant Groups in Switzerland

This research examines stereotypes associated with immigrant groups in Switzerland. In line with the stereotype content model, we expected immigrant groups to be perceived differentially on the dimensions of warmth and competence as a function of their national origin. Second, we expected the stereotype content to be predominantly mixed, that is, groups are either perceived as warmer than competent or as colder than competent. Third, we expected stereotype contents to correlate with their sociostructural precursors, namely, competition and status. The results supported our hypotheses: The nine most salient immigrant groups fell into five meaningful clusters, based on their perceived warmth and competence. Most stereotype contents were mixed. Moreover, we found that warmth perceptions were predicted by both competition and status, whereas competence perceptions were predicted by status only. This research emphasizes the importance of considering the diversity of the immigrant population when studying immigrant stereotypes.