International Initiatives for Regulating Access to Genetic Resources

In light of the various international instruments and international agencies that are actively engaged in resolving the issue of ABS, the present work tries to find an answer to the larger question how far the above agencies have succeeded in regulating access and make sure of benefit sharing. In this process, the work comprehensively analyses the work of different agencies involved in the process. It tries to find out the major obstacles that stand in the way of fulfilment of the benefit sharing objective and proposes the ways and means to tackle them. The study first traces the legal foundations of the concept of property in GRs and associated TK.For this, it starts with analysis of the nature of property and the questions related to ownership in GRs as contained in the CBD as well as in various State legislations. It further examines the notion of property before and after the enactment of the CBD and establishes that the CBD contains strong private property jurisprudence.Based on the theoretical foundation of private property right,Chapter 3 analyses the benefit sharing mechanism of the CBD, i.e. the Nagoya Protocol. It searches for a theoretical convergence of the notion of property as reflected in the two instruments and successfully establishes the same. It makes an appraisal of the Nagoya regime to find out how far it has gone beyond the CBD in ensuring the task of benefit sharing and the impediments in its way.Realizing that the ITPGRFA forms part of the CBD system, Chapter 4 analyses the benefit sharing structure of ITPGRFA as revealed through its multilateral system. This gives the work the benefit of comparing two different benefit sharing models operating on the same philosophy of property. This chapter tries to find out whether there is conceptual coherence in the notion of property when the benefit sharing model changes. It alsocompares the merits and demerits of both the systems and tries to locate the hurdles in achieving benefit sharing. Aware of the legal impediments caused by IPRs in the process of ABS, Chapter 5 tries to explore the linkages between IPRs and GRs and associated TK and assesses why contract-based CBD system fails before the monopoly rights under TRIPS. Chapter 6 analyses the different solutions suggested by the international community at the TRIPS Council as well as the WIPO (World Intellectual property Organisation) and examines their effectiveness. Chapter 7 concludes that considering the inability of the present IP system to understand the grass root realities of the indigenous communities as well as the varying situations of the country of origin, the best possible way to recognise the CBD goals in the TRIPS could be better achieved through linking the two instruments by means of the triple disclosure requirement in Article 29 as suggested by the Disclosure Group during the TRIPS Council deliberations. It also recommends that considering the nature of property in GR, a new section/chapter in the TRIPS dealing with GRs would be another workable solution.

A study of the hydrological features of the shelf water along the west coast of India with an attempt to explain their influence upon the living resources of the region

The objective of the present study is to elucidate the hydrological conditions of the shelf waters along the southern half or the west coast of India and their relation to the sooplankton bionase and pelagic fish resources. Data from six hydrography-plankton sections worked during the 1972-75 period of cape camerin. Quilon. cochin. Kasaragod. Karwar and kotnagiri formed the basis of the present study.Stations were fixed along the transects 10 nautical miles apart. Starting with the first station at around 15 metre depth and were usually occupied 5 to 8 times in an year at an interval of about 6 weeks. Data relating to oil sardines and macherel fisheries were availed from published information relating to the period mainly of the Central Marine fisheries Research Institute. The range of different parameters namely temperature. salinity. density and dissolved oxygen at different depths and their sloping features against the coast are discussed. Three seasons. namely south-west monsoon (summer monsoon). north-east monsoon (winter monsoon) and hot weather season are designated and data of the core months of each of these seasons considered in the study.

Environmental Resources Assessment of Cochin

In the case of urban centres of the developing countries, corrective measures for the environmental consequences of spontaneous or wrongly planned developments are often prohibitively costly. Hence environmentally planned development alone appears to be the solution for which, a compre-hensive assessment of all the resources is an essential pre—requisite. An under-standing of the prevailing environmental conditions is essential for the effective management and execution of programmes for sustainable development. The present work is a modest attempt at assessing the environmental resources of Cochin, the industrial and business capital of Kerala and a fast developing metropolis.

Librarians' perceptions on the use of electronic resources at Catalan academic libraries: results of a focus group

The aim of this paper is to expand on previous quantitative and qualitative research into the use of electronic information resources and its impact on the information behaviour of academics at Catalan universities.

E-Resources in the Engineering College Libraries of Kerala: Problems towards Sustainable Collection Development

Electronic resources have become a vital part of an academic library especially in universities and higher education institutions. The availability of electronic resources and the acceptance of the fonnat among the academics are rising day by day. As far as engineering students are concerned, they are much techno-savy and are more used to electronic resources. So it has become necessary for the libraries of engineering institutions to subscribe and provide access to electronic resources to satisfy its user community. Many studies have identified that academics are much preferring online journals and databases than their print counter-parts

Use of E-Resources in a Networked Environment A Case Study of CUSAT

This paper studies the use of E•rescurces by the faculty and research scholars of Cochin University of Science and TechnologytI'he: use of E resources under INDEST.consortinm;_UGC.lnfonet :project,.and the databases.subscribed.to.in theCUSAT Library are.studied.in the.survey, The:survey•covers various aspects jike.awareness-of the .users, user satisfaction, use pattem of Eoresources,preferenee.for print or electronic version.etc. The problems-faced-are stressed :and possible solutions are suggested

Use of Online Information Resources for Knowledge Organisation in Library and Information Centres: A Case Study of CUSAT

The paper discusses the use of online information resources for organising knowledge in library and information centres in Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT). The paper discusses the status and extent of automation in CUSAT library. The use of different online resources and the purposes for which these resources are being used, is explained in detail. Structured interview method was applied for collecting data. It was observed that 67 per cent users consult online resources for assisting knowledge organisation. Library of Congress catalogue is the widely used (100 per cent) online resource followed by OPAC of CUSAT and catalogue of British Library. The main purposes for using these resources are class number building and subject indexing

Fish germplasm resources and exploited fisheries of the rivers of kerala and bionomics of ‘red canarese barb’, hypselobarbus thomassi (day 1874)

Cochin University of Science & Technology

Continuation and discontinuation of local institution in community based natural resource management

Currently the push toward frontier areas, which until twenty years ago were still largely untouched by commercial agriculture, is taking place on a massive scale. This push is being driven not the least by global economic developments, such as the price increase of agriculture commodities like coffee and cocoa. In most cases the indigenous communities become trapped between the state monopoly in natural resource management and the competition for resources by external actors. In this processes the indigenous communities start to lose their access to resources. Another victim in this process is the environment where the natural resources are imbedded. International and national organizations working to conserve environment have became conscious of the important role that indigenous people could fulfill as partners in this endeavour. This partnership in struggle has produced a new discourse on the relationship between indigenous people and their environment. As a further consequence, programs were set up to develop what became known as Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) with its numerous variations. Based on a case study in a village on the eastern border of the Lore Lindu National Park in Central Sulawesi, this study questioned the basic assumption behind the concept of Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM). Namely the assumption that communities living at the margin of forest are socially and culturally homogenous, still more or less egalitarian, and basically living in harmony with their natural environment. This study was inspired by the persistent critique – although still a minority – on the basic assumption the CBNRM from academicians and practitioners working through the Entitlement perspective. Another inspiration was the mounting critique toward the participatory approach. In its effort the study explore further the usefulness of certain approaches. One of the approach much relied on in this study was the local history of the community studied, through exerting oral and local written documents on local history, legends and local stories. These sources proofed quite capable in bringing the local history into the light. Another was the actor oriented approach, which later came to be supported by the concept of Social Pool Resources. The latter concept proofed to be useful as analytical instrument to integrate social institutions and the common pool resources, as a field of action for the different actors as human agencies.

Nachhaltige Energie für ländliche Entwicklung in dem Sub-Sahara Afrika: interdisziplinäre Herangehensweise und organisatorische Herausforderung

Angesichts der Geschichte der Entwicklungspolitik, ist diese Arbeit darauf ausgerichtet, einige Beobachtungen in Bezug auf die so genannte Entwicklung hervorzuheben; insbesondere auf die andauernde prekäre Situation und Armut in ländlichen afrikanischen Gebieten. Armut ist nach Amartya SEN – weiter präzisiert von J.L. Dubois – die Deprivation von „Fähigkeiten“, die Individuen und lokale Gemeinschaften zu ausgeschlossenen und vergessenen Akteuren des Systems machen. Das nennt Paulo Freire, das Menschen zu „Objekten“ gemacht werden. Es rechtfertigt die starke Annahme, die in dieser Studie getroffen wird, dass vielmehr die Menschen als „Subjekte“ ihrer Veränderung und Entwicklung im Mittelpunkt stehen. Die Arbeit zeigt und erklärt in historischer Chronologie, wie die Entwicklungspolitiken und unterschiedliche Beteiligte auf allen Ebenen diese Situation verursachen. Trotz alledem bleiben die Individuen und lokalen Gemeinschaften, die in Symbiose mit ihrer natürlichen Umwelt leben, die reich an verschiedenen Ressourcen und Potentialen ist, als Reaktion darauf und gleichzeitig als Überlebensstrategie zutiefst verbunden mit dem, was sie vor Ort haben, womit sie eine tiefere und intensive Beziehung besitzen, wenn man von ihrer Geschichte, ihrer Kultur und der Handlungslogik ausgeht. Für externe Akteure, die sie über das vorhandene System dominieren und beeinflussen bleiben sie „Objekte“, aber in der Vielzahl ihrer endogenen Initiativen, zeigen sie die Fähigkeit und Substanz, die beweisen, dass sie auf ihrer Ebene das eigentliche Subjekt sind, die dynamischen Akteure. Aber isolierte Initiativen auf spezifische reale Bedürfnisse bei gleichzeitiger Dominierung durch das System mit seiner Marktlogik, führt dies langfristig nur zu dem Zirkulus Vitiosus der Armut. Daher ist eine ganzheitliche Sicht entscheidend für nachhaltige Entwicklung und für die notwendige Veränderung. Es geht nicht nur um die Veränderung des Systems und die Wahl politischer Maßnahmen, sondern genau genommen um das Verhalten der Akteure auf allen Ebenen und die Art der Beziehungen zwischen ihnen allen. Es ist eine Frage des erneuten Überdenkens des Entwicklungspfades, der andere Logik, Visionen, Interessen und Strategien aller Beteiligten, unserer so genannten Akteure einschließt. Ob dies von endogenen Initiativen oder neuen gemeinsamen Projekten ausgeht: man wird in einen Prozess kollektiven Lernens eintreten, den Paul Singer und Clarita Müller-Plantenberg erläutern und entwickeln in dem Konzept der Inkubation und Solidarischen Ökonomie, die Eigeninitiative, Selbstbestimmung und Selbstverwaltung von lokalen Gemeinschaften und die Öffnung für eine Neu-Konzeptualisierung und Institutionalisierung einschließt. So ein Prozess ist nur mit einem interdisziplinären Rahmen möglich. Dieser Rahmen soll auf einer zusätzlicher Kommunikation zwischen den Akteuren und Sozialwissenschaften beruhen und mit jenen, die auf dem Feld der Technologie arbeiten. So können dann technische „Experten“ angesichts eines technischen Projektfehlers, der aufgrund von bestimmten sozialen und kulturellen Realitäten zustande kam sagen, „es ist kein Scheitern ; es war ein Schritt innerhalb eines Lernprozesse der in die technischen Projekte und Studien einbezogen werden muss“. Wir haben das Energiethema gewählt; und insbesondere, Energie für eine nachhaltige ländliche Entwicklung in Subsahara-Afrika, um den Weg von der Theorie in die Praxis zu illustrieren und experimentell auszuprobieren, den Weg von den Beobachtungen zu der Veränderung, wobei Fragen, Annahmen, Strategien und konkrete Aktionen für den Wandel behandelt werden. Wir nennen unseren experimentellen Weg: DRIEE, das heißt auf Deutsch Ländliche Entwicklung und Inkubation von Energieunternehmen. Dabei gehen wir davon aus, dass: - Energie im Allgemeinen auf der internationalen Ebene fast gleichbedeutend mit Elektrizität ist. Heute bestehen die wichtigsten Bedürfnisse nach Energie dort wo die agro-pastorale Produktion, das Kochen, die Nahrungsmittelkonservierung und Verarbeitung …etc. stattfindet. - Diese ländliche Bevölkerung zu etwa 80% der nationalen Wirtschaft ausmacht. Dass sie gleichzeitig aber nur zu weniger als 5% der Energieproduktion Zugang hat, was oft auf Licht reduziert ist und nicht einmal ihrer Produktion zugute kommen kann. - Die Projekte für Energie und Elektrizität vor allem auf die Technologischen Fragen konzentriert sind und weniger auf die Bedürfnisse. Fast die Gesamtheit der Fonds für Energie wird in Bezug auf die Investitionen Infrastruktur der Produktion und Verteilung durch die konventionellen zentralisierten Netze geplant. Angesichts dieser Analysen gehen die in dieser Arbeit vorgenommenen Studien in Gambia und Kamerun von Bestandsaufnahmen und / oder beschreibenden regionalen Analysen aus: - von Bedürfnissen, von Praktiken und lokalen Initiativen von Fragen der Energie, für einzelne Professionen, Haushalte, Gruppen, spezifische Gruppen, wie Frauen, ländliche Gemeinden mit ihren spezifischen Charakteristika. - Von Potentialen: natürliche lokale Energieressourcen, soziokulturelle Ressourcen – so z.B. die empirisch feststellbaren menschliche Ressourcen wie endogenes Wissen und praktische organisatorische Fähigkeiten gegenüber den Problemen der Energie. Dieser experimentelle Schritt von Handlungsforschung (DRIEE) in Kamerun führte zu der Gründung einer Organisation, über die und mit der wir die Logik der Inkubation und Solidarischen Ökonomie einführen. Das ist FERDEDSI, das heißt auf Deutsch „Forum für Erneuerbare Energie – Nachhaltige Entwicklung und Internationale Solidarität“. Zunächst war dies eine Energiegenossenschaft und dann (im Prozess) wurde es zu einer institutionellen Nische von mehreren Mikro Initiativen in ländlichen Gebieten. FERDEDSI ist ein Prozess der Inkubation und ein Inkubator ist also gleichzeitig ein inkubiertes Energieunternehmen aber auch ein Inkubator für lokale Organisationen. Die ersten Aktionen finden in den Departments von Noun und Ménoua in der westlichen Provinz von Kamerun statt. Während der Forschungsperiode findet akademische Austausch statt (Nord-Süd und Süd-Süd), diese ist dabei zu formalen Partnerschaften zu werden, nicht nur zwischen Universitäten sondern genauer lokale Organisationen und Universitäten. Dieser letzte Typ von Partnerschaften, die die solidarische Ökonomie ausmachen ist auch eine Innovation des Prozesses für die afrikanischen Fälle, die dem Beispiel dessen, was in Lateinamerika geschieht, folgen. So kommt es zu gegenseitiger sinnvoller Ausbildung in den internationalen Arbeitsgruppen und Seminaren der Universität.

Protein Folding Simulations: Confinement, External Fields and Sequence Design

The present Thesis looks at the problem of protein folding using Monte Carlo and Langevin simulations, three topics in protein folding have been studied: 1) the effect of confining potential barriers, 2) the effect of a static external field and 3) the design of amino acid sequences which fold in a short time and which have a stable native state (global minimum). Regarding the first topic, we studied the confinement of a small protein of 16 amino acids known as 1NJ0 (PDB code) which has a beta-sheet structure as a native state. The confinement of proteins occurs frequently in the cell environment. Some molecules called Chaperones, present in the cytoplasm, capture the unfolded proteins in their interior and avoid the formation of aggregates and misfolded proteins. This mechanism of confinement mediated by Chaperones is not yet well understood. In the present work we considered two kinds of potential barriers which try to mimic the confinement induced by a Chaperon molecule. The first kind of potential was a purely repulsive barrier whose only effect is to create a cavity where the protein folds up correctly. The second kind of potential was a barrier which includes both attractive and repulsive effects. We performed Wang-Landau simulations to calculate the thermodynamical properties of 1NJ0. From the free energy landscape plot we found that 1NJ0 has two intermediate states in the bulk (without confinement) which are clearly separated from the native and the unfolded states. For the case of the purely repulsive barrier we found that the intermediate states get closer to each other in the free energy landscape plot and eventually they collapse into a single intermediate state. The unfolded state is more compact, compared to that in the bulk, as the size of the barrier decreases. For an attractive barrier modifications of the states (native, unfolded and intermediates) are observed depending on the degree of attraction between the protein and the walls of the barrier. The strength of the attraction is measured by the parameter $\epsilon$. A purely repulsive barrier is obtained for $\epsilon=0$ and a purely attractive barrier for $\epsilon=1$. The states are changed slightly for magnitudes of the attraction up to $\epsilon=0.4$. The disappearance of the intermediate states of 1NJ0 is already observed for $\epsilon =0.6$. A very high attractive barrier ($\epsilon \sim 1.0$) produces a completely denatured state. In the second topic of this Thesis we dealt with the interaction of a protein with an external electric field. We demonstrated by means of computer simulations, specifically by using the Wang-Landau algorithm, that the folded, unfolded, and intermediate states can be modified by means of a field. We have found that an external field can induce several modifications in the thermodynamics of these states: for relatively low magnitudes of the field ($<2.06 \times 10^8$ V/m) no major changes in the states are observed. However, for higher magnitudes than ($6.19 \times 10^8$ V/m) one observes the appearance of a new native state which exhibits a helix-like structure. In contrast, the original native state is a $\beta$-sheet structure. In the new native state all the dipoles in the backbone structure are aligned parallel to the field. The design of amino acid sequences constitutes the third topic of the present work. We have tested the Rate of Convergence criterion proposed by D. Gridnev and M. Garcia ({\it work unpublished}). We applied it to the study of off-lattice models. The Rate of Convergence criterion is used to decide if a certain sequence will fold up correctly within a relatively short time. Before the present work, the common way to decide if a certain sequence was a good/bad folder was by performing the whole dynamics until the sequence got its native state (if it existed), or by studying the curvature of the potential energy surface. There are some difficulties in the last two approaches. In the first approach, performing the complete dynamics for hundreds of sequences is a rather challenging task because of the CPU time needed. In the second approach, calculating the curvature of the potential energy surface is possible only for very smooth surfaces. The Rate of Convergence criterion seems to avoid the previous difficulties. With this criterion one does not need to perform the complete dynamics to find the good and bad sequences. Also, the criterion does not depend on the kind of force field used and therefore it can be used even for very rugged energy surfaces.

Shifting cultivation and forest resources in Nagaland, N.-E. India

Die vorliegende Studie befasst sich mit der Ressourcennachhaltigkeit der traditionellen, auf Wanderfeldbau beruhenden Subsistenzwirtschaft in zwei Dörfern (Hongphoy und Minyakshu) in Nagaland im Nordosten Indiens. Hierbei werden die Cerealien Produktion, der Feuerholz Konsum und auch die Folgen der intensivierten Bewirtschaftung (Forstdegradation und Bodenverarmung) im Hinblick auf das Bevölkerungswachstum diskutiert. Während das traditionelle System des Wanderfeldbaus (Jhum) seit Jahrzehnten die Bedürfnisse der ehemals kopfjagenden Stämme Nagalands erfüllte, ergab unsere Studie durch Interviews und Feldaufnahmen in 2004 und 2005, dass die steigende Nachfrage einer wachsenden Bevölkerung nach Cerealien und Feuerholz als wichtigste Ressourcen der Subsistenzwirtschaft zu einer verkürzten Brachezeit und letztlich der Degradation von Naturressourcen geführt hat: Pro Hektar Ernten sind reduziert und der Zuwachs der Holzvorräte auf den Feldern kann durch die verkürzten Bracheperioden nicht mehr die Feuerholz Nachfrage decken. Eine Nahrungsmittelknappheit wurde durch die Gegenüberstellung des Energiebedarfs einer Person und die jährlichen pro-Kopf Erntemengen und unter Berücksichtigung des Zukaufs von Reis reflektiert: In Hongphoy ergab dies ein Defizit auf Dorfebene von 130 Tonnen Reis, in Minyakshu von 480 Tonnen, die nicht durch Ernten gedeckt werden konnten. Diese Nahrungsmittelknappheit erweist sich vor allem vor dem Hintergrund eines Bevölkerungswachstums von 6.7% und marginalen Einkünften als problematisch. Für fünf verschiedene Waldformationen (zwei Brachewälder, zwei Dorfwälder und ein Naturwald) wurden die unterschiedliche Artenzusammensetzung (Diversität) und Bestandesvolumina durch Forstinventuren beschrieben. Der dem Bestandesvolumen der Brachewälder gegenübergestellte pro-Kopf Feuerholz Bedarf ergab ein jährliches Defizit von 1,81m³ in Hongphoy und 0.05m³ in Minyakshu. Der Unterschied dieses Defizits zwischen beiden Dörfern wurde in einer abweichenden Bestandesstruktur (Dominanz der N2 fixierenden Baumart Alnus nepalensis in den Brachewäldern Minyakshus) begründet. Über den erhobenen Feuerholzbedarf wurde ein theoretischer pro-Kopf Flächenbedarf an Brachewald errechnet, der nötig wäre um den gesamten Feuerholz Bedarf innerhalb des Wanderfeldbau Systems zu decken. Das daraus resultierende Defizit wurde mit den Feuerholzvolumina der Dorfwälder und des verbliebenen Naturwalds gegenüber gestellt. Hieraus ergibt sich die Bedeutung der Feuerholzernte und des Wanderfeldbau als Ursache für die fortschreitende Entwaldung und Forstdegradation in Nagaland. Mit Hilfe dieser Informationen und aktuellen Angaben zum Bevölkerungswachstum werden die Ergebnisse anhand einschlägiger Literatur diskutiert und letztendlich die Nachhaltigkeit und Tragfähigkeit des Wanderfeldbau Systems in dieser Region bestimmt. Mögliche Verbesserungsstrategien um der zunehmenden Ressourcendegradation zu begegnen, werden andiskutiert.

CD-Systems of Stateless Deterministic R(1)-Automata Governed by an External Pushdown Store

We study cooperating distributed systems (CD-systems) of stateless deterministic restarting automata with window size 1 that are governed by an external pushdown store. In this way we obtain an automata-theoretical characterization for the class of context-free trace languages.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Assessing adaptation – Climate change and indigenous livelihood in the Andes of Bolivia

Based on a case study of Charazani – Bolivia, this article outlines the understanding of adaptive strategies to cope with climate change and its impact on environmental and socioeconomic conditions that are affecting rural livelihoods. Mainly qualitative methods were used to collect and analyze data following the framework for vulnerability assessments of a socio-ecological system. Climate data reveals an increase of precipitation and temperature during the last decades. Furthermore the occurrence of extreme weather events, particularly drought, frost, hailstorms and consequently landslides and fire are increasing. Local testimonies highlight these events as the principle reasons for agricultural losses. This climatic variability and simultaneous social changes were identified as the drivers of vulnerability. Yet, several adaptive measures were identified at household, community and external levels in order to cope with such vulnerability; e.g. traditional techniques in agriculture and risk management. Gradually, farmers complement these activities with contemporary practices in agriculture, like intensification of land use, diversification of irrigation system and use of artificial fertilizers. As part of a recent trend community members are forced to search for new off-farm alternatives beyond agriculture for subsistence. Despite there is a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation measures that families are implementing, local testimonies point out, that farmers often do not have the capacity and neither the economical resources to mitigate the risk in agricultural production. Although several actions are already considered to promote further adaptive capacity, the current target is to improve existing livelihood strategies by reducing vulnerability to hazards induced by climate change.