A unified neurofuzzy model for classification

This work proposes a unified neurofuzzy modelling scheme. To begin with, the initial fuzzy base construction method is based on fuzzy clustering utilising a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) combined with the analysis of covariance (ANOVA) decomposition in order to obtain more compact univariate and bivariate membership functions over the subspaces of the input features. The mean and covariance of the Gaussian membership functions are found by the expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm with the merit of revealing the underlying density distribution of system inputs. The resultant set of membership functions forms the basis of the generalised fuzzy model (GFM) inference engine. The model structure and parameters of this neurofuzzy model are identified via the supervised subspace orthogonal least square (OLS) learning. Finally, instead of providing deterministic class label as model output by convention, a logistic regression model is applied to present the classifier’s output, in which the sigmoid type of logistic transfer function scales the outputs of the neurofuzzy model to the class probability. Experimental validation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed neurofuzzy modelling scheme.

Home, meaning and identity: learning from the English model of shared ownership

This article explores the problematic nature of the label “home ownership” through a case study of the English model of shared ownership, one of the methods used by the UK government to make home ownership affordable. Adopting a legal and socio-legal analysis, the article considers whether shared ownership is capable of fulfilling the aspirations households have for home ownership. To do so, the article considers the financial and nonfinancial meanings attached to home ownership and suggests that the core expectation lies in ownership of the value. The article demonstrates that the rights and responsibilities of shared owners are different in many respects from those of traditional home owners, including their rights as regards ownership of the value. By examining home ownership through the lens of shared ownership the article draws out lessons of broader significance to housing studies. In particular, it is argued that shared ownership shows the limitations of two dichotomies commonly used in housing discourse: that between private and social housing; and the classification of tenure between owner-occupiers and renters. The article concludes that a much more nuanced way of referring to home ownership is required, and that there is a need for a change of expectations amongst consumers as to what sharing ownership means.

Extended optimal estimation techniques for sea surface temperature from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI)

Sea surface temperature (SST) can be estimated from day and night observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) by optimal estimation (OE). We show that exploiting the 8.7 μm channel, in addition to the “traditional” wavelengths of 10.8 and 12.0 μm, improves OE SST retrieval statistics in validation. However, the main benefit is an improvement in the sensitivity of the SST estimate to variability in true SST. In a fair, single-pixel comparison, the 3-channel OE gives better results than the SST estimation technique presently operational within the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility. This operational technique is to use SST retrieval coefficients, followed by a bias-correction step informed by radiative transfer simulation. However, the operational technique has an additional “atmospheric correction smoothing”, which improves its noise performance, and hitherto had no analogue within the OE framework. Here, we propose an analogue to atmospheric correction smoothing, based on the expectation that atmospheric total column water vapour has a longer spatial correlation length scale than SST features. The approach extends the observations input to the OE to include the averaged brightness temperatures (BTs) of nearby clear-sky pixels, in addition to the BTs of the pixel for which SST is being retrieved. The retrieved quantities are then the single-pixel SST and the clear-sky total column water vapour averaged over the vicinity of the pixel. This reduces the noise in the retrieved SST significantly. The robust standard deviation of the new OE SST compared to matched drifting buoys becomes 0.39 K for all data. The smoothed OE gives SST sensitivity of 98% on average. This means that diurnal temperature variability and ocean frontal gradients are more faithfully estimated, and that the influence of the prior SST used is minimal (2%). This benefit is not available using traditional atmospheric correction smoothing.

Cooperative R&D with endogenous technology differentiation

We study a nontournament R&D duopoly. Before the standard R&D investment and quantity-setting stages, we consider a stage in which firms choose their R&D technologies. Spillovers negatively depend on R&D technology differentiation. We show that, in equilibrium, firms will choose identical or very similar R&D processes. Such equilibria may entail less differentiation than would be dictated by social welfare maximization.

Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture’s mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates

Atmospheric CO2 concentration has varied from minima of 170-200 ppm in glacials to maxima of 280-300 ppm in the recent interglacials. Photosynthesis by C-3 plants is highly sensitive to CO2 concentration variations in this range. Physiological consequences of the CO2 changes should therefore be discernible in palaeodata. Several lines of evidence support this expectation. Reduced terrestrial carbon storage during glacials, indicated by the shift in stable isotope composition of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean, cannot be explained by climate or sea-level changes. It is however consistent with predictions of current process-based models that propagate known physiological CO2 effects into net primary production at the ecosystem scale. Restricted forest cover during glacial periods, indicated by pollen assemblages dominated by non-arboreal taxa, cannot be reproduced accurately by palaeoclimate models unless CO2 effects on C-3-C-4 plant competition are also modelled. It follows that methods to reconstruct climate from palaeodata should account for CO2 concentration changes. When they do so, they yield results more consistent with palaeoclimate models. In conclusion, the palaeorecord of the Late Quaternary, interpreted with the help of climate and ecosystem models, provides evidence that CO2 effects at the ecosystem scale are neither trivial nor transient.

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

Performing performers: embodiment and intertextuality in the contemporary biopic

The actor’s body is of critical importance to the biopic’s representation of ‘real’ lives, to issues of physical and gestural resemblance, and in its role as the dramatic vehicle; acting out significant moments, embodying transformations. Through detailed examination of Beyond the Sea (2004), De-Lovely (2004), Molière (2007), films which foreground the construction, and constructedness, of life through performance and spectacle, this chapter explores the self-reflexive and intertexual embodiment of life stories. It focuses on the material details of performance in relation to distinctly contemporary strategies of film style and tone, and how these connect to questions of expectation and agency.

Blended learning in distance education: Sri Lankan perspective

The purpose of this paper is to explore the implementation of online learning in distance educational delivery at Yellow Fields University (pseudonymous) in Sri Lanka. The implementation of online distance education at the University included the use of blended learning. The policy initiative to introduce online for distance education in Sri Lanka was guided by the expectation of cost reduction and the implementation was financed under the Distance Education Modernization Project. The paper presents one case study of a larger multiple case study research that employed an ethnographic research approach in investigating the impact of ICT on distance education in Sri Lanka. Documents, questionnaires and qualitative interviews were used for data collection. There was a significant positive relationship between ownership of computers and students’ ability to use computer for word processing, emailing and Web searching. The lack of access to computers and the Internet, the lack of infrastructure, low levels of computer literacy, the lack of local language content, and the lack of formal student support services at the University were found to be major barriers to implementing compulsory online activities at the University

Can perceptual differences account for managerial success?: the case of Japanese aid workers

Purpose – There is a wealth of studies which suggest that managers' positive perceptions/expectations can considerably influence the organisational performance; unfortunately, little empirical evidence has been obtained from development studies. This research aims to focus on the perceptual and behavioural trait differences of successful and unsuccessful aid workers, and their relationship with organisational performance. Design/methodology/approach – Through web-based survey, 244 valid responses were obtained from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)-aid managers worldwide. Five perception related factors were extracted and used for cluster analysis to group the respondents. Each cluster's perception/behaviour-related factors and organisational performance variables were compared by ANOVA. Findings – It was discovered that Japanese's positive perception/expectation about work and their local colleagues was related to higher organisational performance, and conversely, the negative perception on their part was generally associated with negative behaviour and lower organisational performance. Moreover, in a development context, lower work-related stress and feelings of resignation toward work were strongly associated with the acceptability of cross-cultural work environment. Practical implications – The differences in perceptual tendencies suggest that cautious consideration is advised since these findings may mainly apply to Japanese aid managers. However, as human nature is universal, positive perception and behaviour would bring out positive output in most organisations. Originality/value – This study extended the contextualised “Pygmalion effect” and has clarified the influence of perception/expectation on counter-part behaviour and organisational performance in development aid context, where people-related issues have often been ignored. This first-time research provides imperial data on the significant role of positive perception on the incumbent role holder.

Instantaneous gelation in Smoluchowski’s coagulation equation revisited

We study the solutions of the Smoluchowski coagulation equation with a regularization term which removes clusters from the system when their mass exceeds a specified cutoff size, M. We focus primarily on collision kernels which would exhibit an instantaneous gelation transition in the absence of any regularization. Numerical simulations demonstrate that for such kernels with monodisperse initial data, the regularized gelation time decreasesas M increases, consistent with the expectation that the gelation time is zero in the unregularized system. This decrease appears to be a logarithmically slow function of M, indicating that instantaneously gelling kernels may still be justifiable as physical models despite the fact that they are highly singular in the absence of a cutoff. We also study the case when a source of monomers is introduced in the regularized system. In this case a stationary state is reached. We present a complete analytic description of this regularized stationary state for the model kernel, K(m1,m2)=max{m1,m2}ν, which gels instantaneously when M→∞ if ν>1. The stationary cluster size distribution decays as a stretched exponential for small cluster sizes and crosses over to a power law decay with exponent ν for large cluster sizes. The total particle density in the stationary state slowly vanishes as [(ν−1)logM]−1/2 when M→∞. The approach to the stationary state is nontrivial: Oscillations about the stationary state emerge from the interplay between the monomer injection and the cutoff, M, which decay very slowly when M is large. A quantitative analysis of these oscillations is provided for the addition model which describes the situation in which clusters can only grow by absorbing monomers.

Scoping customer relationship management strategy in HEI - Understanding steps towards alignment of customer and management needs

Higher Education Institutions (HEI) are complex organisations, offering a wide range of services, which involve a multiplicity of customers, stakeholders and service providers; both in terms of type and number. Satisfying a diverse set of customer groups is complex, and requires development of strategic Customer Relationship Management (CRM). This paper contributes to the HEI area, by proposing an approach that scopes CRM strategy, allowing us a better understanding CRM implementation in Higher Education Institutions; maximising alignment of customer and management desires, expectation and needs.

A longitudinal study of carbon disclosure strategy: evidence from utility, energy and mining industries in the UK

The paper investigates how energy-intensive industries respond to the recent government-led carbon emission schemes through the content analysis of 306 annual and standalone reports of 25 UK listed companies from 2004 to 2012. This period of reporting captures the trend and development of corporate disclosures on carbon emissions after the launch of EU Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) and Climate Change Act (CCA) 2008. It is found that in corresponding to strategic legitimacy theory, there is an increase in both the quality and quantity of carbon disclosures as a response to these initiatives. However, the change is gradual, which reflects in the achievement of peak disclosure period two years after the launch. It indicates that the new legislations have a lasting impact on the discourses rather than an immediate legitimacy threat from the perspective of institutional legitimacy theory. The results also show that carbon disclosures are an institutionalised practice as companies in the same industries and/or with same carbon trading account status appear to imitate and adopt the industry’s ‘best practice’ disclosure strategy to maintain legitimacy. The trend analysis suggests that the overall disclosure practice is still in its infant stage, especially in the reporting of quantitative and monetary items. The paper contributes to the social and environmental accounting literature by adopting both strategic and institutional view of legitimacy, which explains why carbon disclosures evolve in a specific way to meet the expectation of various stakeholders.

A battle of elephants: (I)legitimate ethical voices?

In this paper, we aim to distil myriad stakeholder voices through a Foucaudian theoretical apparatus in the establishment of ethical stakeholder voices amidst a takeover of a Ghanaian National Bank with ownership control by the state National Pension Fund and Insurance Company. Resonating with Foucault’s position that, the prove and an actual practice of ethical principles despite risk is non-existent within a democracy, this paper reveals how stakeholders in a takeover further their own interest to the neglect of the very germane societal expectation of a salient stakeholder role. We further fill an existing gap within the stakeholder literature that posit of stakeholders as always possessing the right and ethical voices. We conclude that, despite Foucault’s last lecture of The Courage of Truth: The Government of the Self and others having proven of a robust apparatus in distilling ethical voices from non-ethical within the realm of a democratic field, its idealist nature demands a counterfactual position.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.