Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Partnership Actions for Mitigating Syndromes (PAMS): Experience with a transdisciplinary tool in the NCCR North-South programme

Partnership Actions for Mitigating Syndromes (PAMS) are small transdisciplinary projects which bring scientific research insights from the NCCR North-South into policy and practice. They are implemented by researchers from different disciplines in collaboration with non-scientific actors. PAMS aim to implement and test approaches, methods and tools developed in research, in order to identify promising strategies and potentials for sustainable development. In this sense, they are solution-oriented. This paper will provide insights into our experience with PAMS, with a special focus on the implementation of transdisciplinarity and its outcomes. From 2001 to 2010, 77 PAMS were implemented in Africa, Asia and Latin America. An internal evaluation of the first 55 projects was conducted in 2006. Results of this evaluation led to a refinement and improvement of the tool. A second internal evaluation is currently underway in the NCCR North-South. This evaluation will provide an overview of 22 new PAMS. We will look at partners involved, project beneficiaries, activities implemented, outcomes achieved, and lessons learnt. In the first evaluation, transdisciplinarity was considered as “a form of collaboration within scientific fields … and as a form of continuous dialogue between research and society” (Messerli et al., 2007). The evaluation report concluded that this understanding of transdisciplinarity was not satisfactorily applied in the 55 projects. Only about half of the PAMS addressed mutual exchange between researchers and society. Some involved only one specific field of research and clearly lacked interdisciplinary co-operation, and most often knowledge was transferred mainly unilaterally from the scientific community to society, without society having any effect on science. It was therefore recommended to address transdisciplinarity more carefully in Phase 2 PAMS. The second evaluation, which is currently under way, is analysing whether and how this recommendation has been met, based on criteria defined in the NCCR North-South’s Outcome Monitoring Strategy. The analysis is focusing on partners with whom researchers interact and investigating whether practices have changed both in research and society. We are also exploring the role of researchers in PAMS. Preliminary results show that researchers can assume different roles, from direct implementation, mediation, and promotion of social learning between different actors, to giving advice as neutral outsiders.

[A million football fans in a city of 120,000 inhabitants--a nightmare for emergency medicine and disaster management? Euro 2008 and the "Orange wonder of Berne"]

The 2008 European Football Championship 2008 (Euro 08) is the largest sporting event ever organized in Switzerland. One million visitors came to the city of Berne during the event and the local airport in Bern/Belp registered 261 extra flights. For each football game there were 33,000 fans in the stadium and 100,000 fans in the public viewing zones.The ambulance corps and the Department of Emergency Medicine (ED) at Inselspital, University Hospital Berne, were responsible for basic medical care and emergency medical management. Injuries and illnesses were analyzed by a standardized score (NACA score). The preparation strategy as well as costs and patient numbers are presented in detail.A total of 30 additional ambulance vehicles were used, 4,723 additional working days (one-third medical professionals) were accumulated, 662 ambulance calls were registered and 240 persons needed medical care (62% Swiss, 28% Dutch and 10% other nationalities). Among those needing treatment 51 were treated in 1 of the 4 city hospitals. No injuries with NACA grades VI and VII occurred (NACA I: 4, NACA II: 17, NACA III: 16, NACA IV: 10 and NACA V: 4 patients). The city of Berne compensated the Inselspital Bern with a total of 112,603 Euros for extra medical care costs. The largest amount was spent on security measures (50,300 Euros) and medical staff (medical doctors 22,600 Euros, nurses 29,000 Euros). Because of the poor weather and the exemplary behavior of the fans, the course of events was rather peaceful.