An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Phase dependent forward three wave amplification in photorefractive BSO

The results of three wave mixing experiments in photorefractive Bi12SiO20 are presented. The results confirm theoretical predictions that amplification by three wave mixing is strongly dependent on the phase relationship between the three beams at the input to the medium.

Amplification of temporally modulated signal beams via two-wave mixing in Bi12SiO20

A theoretical analysis of two-wave mixing in a BSO crystal is developed in the undepleted-pump approximation for a modulated signal beam. It is shown that, for a modulation of high enough frequency, significant ac amplification is possible at three distinct values of pump-beam detuning. A signal beam that is amplitude modulated by a square wave is analyzed by means of the theory, and experimental results are presented in confirmation of the analysis. Finally, it is shown that in the presence of absorption the optimum detunings for dc and ac amplification are different.

Medication error in mental health:implications for primary care

Medication errors are associated with significant morbidity and people with mental health problems may be particularly susceptible to medication errors due to various factors. Primary care has a key role in improving medication safety in this vulnerable population. The complexity of services, involving primary and secondary care and social services, and potential training issues may increase error rates, with physical medicines representing a particular risk. Service users may be cognitively impaired and fail to identify an error placing additional responsibilities on clinicians. The potential role of carers in error prevention and medication safety requires further elaboration. A potential lack of trust between service users and clinicians may impair honest communication about medication issues leading to errors. There is a need for detailed research within this field.

A practical phase sensitive amplification scheme for two channel phase regeneration

A "black-box" phase sensitive amplifier is presented achieving simultaneous suppression of deterministic phase distortion on two independent 42.66 Gbit/s DPSK modulated signal wavelengths.

Impact of longitudinal power budget in coherent transmission systems employing digital back-propagation

We report the impact of longitudinal signal power profile on the transmission performance of coherently-detected 112 Gb/s m-ary polarization multiplexed quadrature amplitude modulation system after compensation of deterministic nonlinear fibre impairments. Performance improvements up to 0.6 dB (Q(eff)) are reported for a non-uniform transmission link power profile. Further investigation reveals that the evolution of the transmission performance with power profile management is fully consistent with the parametric amplification of the amplified spontaneous emission by the signal through four-wave mixing. In particular, for a non-dispersion managed system, a single-step increment of 4 dB in the amplifier gain, with respect to a uniform gain profile, at similar to 2/3(rd) of the total reach considerably improves the transmission performance for all the formats studied. In contrary a negative-step profile, emulating a failure (gain decrease or loss increase), significantly degrades the bit-error rate.

Time resolved bit error rate analysis of a fast switching tunable laser for use in optically switched networks

We investigate the use of different direct detection modulation formats in a wavelength switched optical network. We find the minimum time it takes a tunable sampled grating distributed Bragg reflector laser to recover after switching from one wavelength channel to another for different modulation formats. The recovery time is investigated utilizing a field programmable gate array which operates as a time resolved bit error rate detector. The detector offers 93 ps resolution operating at 10.7 Gb/s and allows for all the data received to contribute to the measurement, allowing low bit error rates to be measured at high speed. The recovery times for 10.7 Gb/s non-return-to-zero on–off keyed modulation, 10.7 Gb/s differentially phase shift keyed signal and 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed formats can be as low as 4 ns, 7 ns and 40 ns, respectively. The time resolved phase noise associated with laser settling is simultaneously measured for 21.4 Gb/s differentially quadrature phase shift keyed data and it shows that the phase noise coupled with frequency error is the primary limitation on transmitting immediately after a laser switching event.

Full-field electronic dispersion compensation of a 10 Gbit/s OOK signal over 4 x 124 km field-installed single-mode fibre

We experimentally demonstrate the use of full-field electronic dispersion compensation (EDC) to achieve a bit error rate of 5 x 10(-5) at 22.3 dB optical signal-to-noise ratio for single-channel 10 Gbit/s on-off keyed signal after transmission over 496 km field-installed single-mode fibre with an amplifier spacing of 124 km. This performance is achieved by designing the EDC so as to avoid electronic amplification of the noise content of the signal during full-field reconstruction. We also investigate the tolerance of the system to key signal processing parameters, and numerically demonstrate that single-channel 2160 km single mode fibre transmission without in-line optical dispersion compensation can be achieved using this technique with 80 km amplifier spacing and optimized system parameters.

All-optical OFDM and distributed Raman amplification : challenges to enable high capacities and extend reach

We review recent advances in all-optical OFDM technologies and discuss the performance of a field trial of a 2 Tbit/s Coherent WDM over 124 km with distributed Raman amplification. The results indicate that careful optimisation of the Raman pumps is essential. We also consider how all-optical OFDM systems perform favourably against energy consumption when compared with alternative coherent detection schemes. We argue that, in an energy constrained high-capacity transmission system, direct detected all-optical OFDM with `ideal' Raman amplification is an attractive candidate for metro area datacentre interconnects with ~100 km fibre spans, with an overall energy requirement at least three times lower than coherent detection techniques.

Influence of personal mobile phone ringing and usual intention to answer on driver error

Given evidence of effects of mobile phone use on driving, and also legislation, many careful drivers refrain from answering their phones when driving. However, the distracting influence of a call on driving, even in the context of not answering, has not been examined. Furthermore, given that not answering may be contrary to an individual’s normal habits, this study examined whether distraction caused by the ignored call varies according to normal intention to answer whilst driving. That is, determining whether the effect is more than a simple matter of noise distraction. Participants were 27 young drivers (18-29 years), all regular mobile users. A Theory of Planned Behaviour questionnaire examined predictors of intention to refrain from answering calls whilst driving. Participants provided their mobile phone number and were instructed not to answer their phone if it were to ring during a driving simulation. The simulation scenario had seven hazards (e.g. car pulling out, pedestrian crossing) with three being immediately preceded by a call. Infractions (e.g. pedestrian collisions, vehicle collisions, speed exceedances) were significantly greater when distracted by call tones than with no distraction. Lower intention to ignore calls whilst driving correlated with a larger effect of distraction, as was feeling unable to control whether one answered whilst driving (Perceived Behavioural Control). The study suggests that even an ignored call can cause significantly increased infractions in simulator driving, with pedestrian collisions and speed exceedances being striking examples. Results are discussed in relation to cognitive demands of inhibiting normal behaviour and to drivers being advised to switch phones off whilst driving.

Bit error rate improvement by nonlinear optical decision element

We present a novel approach to the improvement of the bit error rate (BER) in optical communications. We propose a design of advanced optical receiver enhanced by a nonlinear all-optical decision element. As a particular example, we demonstrate a substantial improvement in the BER over the conventional receiver for operation at 40?Gbits/s.

"Magic" dispersion maps with distributed Raman amplification

We analyze pulse propagation in an optical fiber with a periodic dispersion map and distributed amplification. Using an asymptotic theory and a momentum method, we identify a family of dispersion management schemes that are advantageous for massive multichannel soliton transmission. For the case of two-step dispersion maps with distributed Raman amplification to compensate for the fiber loss, we find special schemes that have optimal (chirp-free) launch point locations that are independent of the fiber dispersion. Despite the variation of dispersion with wavelength due to the fiber dispersion slope, the transmission in several different channels can be optimized simultaneously using the same optimal launch point. The theoretical predictions are verified by direct numerical simulations. The obtained results are applied to a practical multichannel transmission system.

Optimal dispersion maps for multichannel soliton transmission with distributed Raman amplification

Using an asymptotic theory and a momentum method, we identify a family of dispersion management schemes with distributed Raman amplification, which are advantageous for massive multichannel soliton transmission. For the case of two-step dispersion maps, special schemes are found that have optimal (chirp-free) launch point locations that are independent of the fibre dispersion. Despite the variation of dispersion with wavelength due to the fibre dispersion slope, the transmission in several different channels can be optimized simultaneously using the same optimal launch point. The theoretical results are verified by direct numerical simulations.