Analysis of species hyper-diversity in the tropical rain forests of Indonesia: the problem of non-observance

The main interest in the assessment of forest species diversity for conservation purposes is in the rare species. The main problem in the tropical rain forests is that most of the species are rare. Assessment of species diversity in the tropical rain forests is therefore often concerned with estimating that which is not observed in recorded samples. Statistical methodology is therefore required to try to estimate the truncated tail of the species frequency distribution, or to estimate the asymptote of species/diversity-area curves. A Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the number of unobserved (“virtual”) species in each species intensity class is proposed. The approach allows a definition of an extended definition of diversity, ( or generalised Renyi entropy). The paper presents a case study from data collected in Jambi, Sumatra, and the “extended diversity measure” is used on the species data.

A policy-definition language and prototype implementation library for policy-based autonomic systems

This paper presents work towards generic policy toolkit support for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be adapted dynamically and automatically. The work is motivated by three needs: the need for longer-term policy-based adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically adapted to continually maintain or improve its effectiveness despite changing environmental conditions; the need to enable non autonomics-expert practitioners to embed self-managing behaviours with low cost and risk; and the need for adaptive policy mechanisms that are easy to deploy into legacy code. A policy definition language is presented; designed to permit powerful expression of self-managing behaviours. The language is very flexible through the use of simple yet expressive syntax and semantics, and facilitates a very diverse policy behaviour space through both hierarchical and recursive uses of language elements. A prototype library implementation of the policy support mechanisms is described. The library reads and writes policies in well-formed XML script. The implementation extends the state of the art in policy-based autonomics through innovations which include support for multiple policy versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta-policies to dynamically select between policy instances and templates. Most significantly, the scheme supports hot-swapping between policy instances. To illustrate the feasibility and generalised applicability of these tools, two dissimilar example deployment scenarios are examined. The first is taken from an exploratory implementation of self-managing parallel processing, and is used to demonstrate the simple and efficient use of the tools. The second example demonstrates more-advanced functionality, in the context of an envisioned multi-policy stock trading scheme which is sensitive to environmental volatility

Generic support for policy-based self-adaptive systems

This paper presents a policy definition language which forms part of a generic policy toolkit for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be modified dynamically and automatically. Targeted enhancements to the current state of practice include: policy self-adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically modified to match environmental conditions; improved support for non autonomics-expert developers; and facilitating easy deployment of adaptive policies into legacy code. The policy definition language permits powerful expression of self-managing behaviours and facilitates a diverse policy behaviour space. Features include support for multiple versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta policies to dynamically select between policy instances. An example deployment scenario illustrates advanced functionality in the context of a multi policy stock trading system which is sensitive to environmental volatility.

Policy-based techniques for self-managing parallel applications

This paper presents an empirical investigation of policy-based self-management techniques for parallel applications executing in loosely-coupled environments. The dynamic and heterogeneous nature of these environments is discussed and the special considerations for parallel applications are identified. An adaptive strategy for the run-time deployment of tasks of parallel applications is presented. The strategy is based on embedding numerous policies which are informed by contextual and environmental inputs. The policies govern various aspects of behaviour, enhancing flexibility so that the goals of efficiency and performance are achieved despite high levels of environmental variability. A prototype self-managing parallel application is used as a vehicle to explore the feasibility and benefits of the strategy. In particular, several aspects of stability are investigated. The implementation and behaviour of three policies are discussed and sample results examined.

Putting down routes: an examination of local government cultural policy shaping the development of heritage trails

This paper explores the significance of trails within local government cultural strategies by presenting the results of an audit of 1000 trails, content analysis of local cultural strategies and a series of interviews with local government cultural officers. It highlights the growing sophistication of trails as flexible and multi-faceted products promising an array of social, environmental, cultural and economic benefits. However, key issues emerge as challenges for local government cultural officers. These include the need for a realistic assessment of the relative importance of competing rationales, the design of methodologies to enable evidence-based policy making and more effective engagement with commercial organisations.

The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Data rescue and re-use: Recycling old information to address new policy concerns

Information on past trends is essential to inform future predictions and underpin attribution needed to drive policy responses. It has long been recognised that sustained observations are essential for disentangling climate-driven change from other regional and local-scale anthropogenic impacts and environmental fluctuations or cycles in natural systems. This paper highlights how data rescue and re-use have contributed to the debate on climate change responses of marine biodiversity and ecosystems. It also illustrates via two case studies the re-use of old data to address new policy concerns. The case studies focus on (1) plankton, fish and benthos from the Western English Channel and (2) broad-scale and long-term studies of intertidal species around the British Isles. Case study 1 using the Marine Biological Association of the UK's English Channel data has shown the influence of climatic fluctuations on phenology (migration and breeding patterns) and has also helped to disentangle responses to fishing pressure from those driven by climate, and provided insights into ecosystem-level change in the English Channel. Case study 2 has shown recent range extensions, increases of abundance and changes in phenology (breeding patterns) of southern, warm-water intertidal species in relation to recent rapid climate change and fluctuations in northern and southern barnacle species, enabling modelling and prediction of future states. The case is made for continuing targeted sustained observations and their importance for marine management and policy development.

Marine and coastal policy in the UK: Challenges and opportunities in a new era

Marine and coastal policy in the UK has faced a number of significant changes in recent years, most notably the passing of the Marine and Coastal Access Act in 2009. These changes have brought significant challenges and opportunities for all those involved in the management and use of the UK's marine and coastal environment. This new era of marine policy inspired the UK's first Marine and Coastal Policy forum held in June 2011. In this introductory paper the global context of marine policy changes and the themes which emerged from the forum, forming the basis of the articles in this special issue, are outlined. It is concluded that there is a high level of engagement, capacity and willingness of key stakeholders to work collaboratively to address the environmental, social and economic complexities of managing the marine and coastal environment. It is both evident and encouraging that progress is being made and the many challenges faced in this new era give rise to a number of opportunities to develop new ideas and effective mechanisms for finding solutions

Marine and coastal policy in the UK: Challenges and opportunities in a new era

Marine and coastal policy in the UK has faced a number of significant changes in recent years, most notably the passing of the Marine and Coastal Access Act in 2009. These changes have brought significant challenges and opportunities for all those involved in the management and use of the UK's marine and coastal environment. This new era of marine policy inspired the UK's first Marine and Coastal Policy forum held in June 2011. In this introductory paper the global context of marine policy changes and the themes which emerged from the forum, forming the basis of the articles in this special issue, are outlined. It is concluded that there is a high level of engagement, capacity and willingness of key stakeholders to work collaboratively to address the environmental, social and economic complexities of managing the marine and coastal environment. It is both evident and encouraging that progress is being made and the many challenges faced in this new era give rise to a number of opportunities to develop new ideas and effective mechanisms for finding solutions.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

REDUCING DIESEL DEPENDENCE IN NUNAVUT: INTEGRATING RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES THROUGH POLICY ACTIONS

In the last fifty years, Nunavut has developed a deep dependence on diesel for virtually all of its energy needs, including electricity. This dependence has created a number of economic, environmental and health related challenges in the territory, with an estimated 20% of the territory’s annual budget being spent on energy, thereby limiting the Government of Nunavut’s ability to address other essential infrastructure and societal needs, such as education, nutrition and health care and housing. One solution to address this diesel dependency is the use of renewable energy technologies (RETs), such as wind, solar and hydropower. As such, this thesis explores energy alternatives in Nunavut, and through RETScreen renewable energy simulations, found that solar power and wind power are technically viable options for Nunavut communities and a potentially successful means to offset diesel-generated electricity in Nunavut. However, through this analysis it was also discovered that accurate data or renewable resources are often unavailable for most Nunavut communities. Moreover, through qualitative open-ended interviews, the perspectives of Nunavut residents with regards to developing RETs in Nunavut were explored, and it was found that respondents generally supported the use of renewable energy in their communities, while acknowledging that there still remains a knowledge gap among residents regarding renewable energy, stemming from a lack of communication between the communities, government and the utility company. In addition, the perceived challenges, opportunities and gaps that exist with regards to renewable energy policy and program development were discussed with government policy-makers through further interviews, and it was discovered that often government departments work largely independently of each other rather than collaboratively, creating gaps and oversights in renewable energy policy in Nunavut. Combined, the results of this thesis were used to develop a number of recommended policy actions that could be undertaken by the territorial and federal government to support a shift towards renewable energy in order to develop a sustainable and self-sufficient energy plan in Nunavut. They include: gathering accurate renewable resource data in Nunavut; increasing community consultations on the subject of renewable energy; building strong partnerships with universities, colleges and industry; developing a knowledge sharing network; and finally increasing accessibility to renewable energy programs and policies in Nunavut.