Prat i Cambó: la maduresa d'un projecte polític

El text explica el procés pel qual el conglomerat electoral de la Lliga Regionalista es va convertir en un partit polític modern, amb uns quadres estables, una ideologia ben definida, uns portaveus i una estratègia electoral complexa (per a Barcelona, la resta de Catalunya i el conjunt de la política espanyola); així mateix, i coincidint amb aquest moment d¿aparició del noucentisme polític, es va formular el seu programa de govern (posat després en pràctica per la Mancomunitat). També s¿analitza com aquesta conjuntura va permetre que la Lliga assolís un contacte real amb capes àmplies de la societat i se situa el final d¿aquesta etapa en l¿esclat de la Setmana Tràgica.

What makes for peaceful post-conflict elections?

Elections play a crucial role in post-conflict peace and democratization processes as, among other factors, they provide an answer to the question of who is to legitimately rule the country. However, because of the competitiveness arising from their central role in allocating power they can also represent windows of vulnerability where deeply rooted societal conflicts can come to the surface. This working paper focuses on two post-conflict elections (Sierra Leone 2007; Nepal 2008) which, despite perceived high risks, did not result in widespread violence or a return to armed conflict. The aim of these case studies is to identify the factors and measures that may have played an important role in contributing to this outcome. Each of the two case studies first outlines the risks associated with the elections and then analyzes the violence and conflict preventing factors. The paper shows that that the context greatly influences the type of measures that can be taken in such situations, but that there are also some similarities in the two cases studied. In particular, it appears that that the credibility of the elections, largely attributable to a good electoral administration, was an important factor in both Nepal and Sierra Leone. Furthermore, the inclusion of all key stakeholders in decisions regarding key electoral institutions helped to diffuse potential conflict. The study also shows that in both cases the international community played an important role by providing financial, logistical and technical support and by pressuring certain important actors to comply with the rules.

Feasibility of Using Automated Distress Data in the County Need Study, TR-418, 1998

The purpose of this project was to determine the feasibility of using pavement condition data collected for the Iowa Pavement Management Program (IPMP) as input to the Iowa Quadrennial Need Study. The need study, conducted by the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) every four years, currently uses manually collected highway infrastructure condition data (roughness, rutting, cracking, etc.). Because of the Iowa DOT's 10-year data collection cycles, condition data for a given highway segment may be up to 10 years old. In some cases, the need study process has resulted in wide fluctuations in funding allocated to individual Iowa counties from one study to the next. This volatility in funding levels makes it difficult for county engineers to plan and program road maintenance and improvements. One possible remedy is to input more current and less subjective infrastructure condition data. The IPMP was initially developed to satisfy the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) requirement that federal-aid-eligible highways be managed through a pavement management system. Currently all metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in Iowa and 15 of Iowa's 18 RPAs participate in the IPMP. The core of this program is a statewide data base of pavement condition and construction history information. The pavement data are collected by machine in two-year cycles. Using pilot areas, researchers examined the implications of using the automated data collected for the IPMP as input to the need study computer program, HWYNEEDS. The results show that using the IPMP automated data in HWYNEEDS is feasible and beneficial, resulting in less volatility in the level of total need between successive quadrennial need studies. In other words, the more current the data, the smaller the shift in total need.

Valdeltagande i Finland : rationalitet eller socialt tryck?

Abstract: Electoral participation in Finland: rationality or social pressure?

Vaalien jatkuva kierto : oikeudesta osallistua vaaliprosessiin

Tiivistelmä: Electoral cycle : right to participate in the electoral process

La Participación de los estudiantes en la universidad: dificultades percibidas y propuestas de mejora = Student participation in the university: perceived problems and proposals for improvement

Este artículo se centra en el análisis de la participación de los estudiantes en el gobierno de la universidad y muestra específicamente las principales dificultades que hay para ella y las propuestas que pueden facilitar la implicación de los estudiantes en el funcionamiento de las universidades. A partir de una investigación desarrollada durante los cursos 2007-08 y 2008-09, en la que se utilizaron cuestionarios y grupos de discusión con estudiantes y entrevistas dirigidas al profesorado, se obtiene información sobre los principales obstáculos para la participación estudiantil. El estudio realizado muestra que, de acuerdo con la tónica general reflejada en otras investigaciones sobre esta misma temática en nuestro contexto, la participación de los estudiantes en los distintos estamentos universitarios es escasa. Ahora bien, la metodología seguida en esta investigación permite contrastar las opiniones de los estudiantes con las percepciones del profesorado y obtener así matices significativos que muestran las principales direcciones que hay que tomar para facilitar un cambio de orientación en el asunto. Los cambios que debemos emprender están relacionados no solo con la mejora de los mecanismos de información acerca de los canales de participación, sino también con el replanteamiento de los procesos participativos por parte de la universidad, así como del papel del profesorado y, específicamente, de los coordinadores de los órganos de gestión más próximos a los estudiantes. En las conclusiones del documento se presentan las propuestas de mejora dirigidas a potenciar la implicación de los estudiantes en el funcionamiento universitario. Entre ellas se apuntan las siguientes: mejorar la información y los canales de comunicación con los estudiantes, mejorar los procesos electorales, ofrecer formación a los estudiantes para la participación y formación al profesorado acerca de las metodologías, recursos e instrumentos que pueden repercutir en la motivación de los estudiantes

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a timeseries approach

The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Anàlisi del risc del preu dels índex IBEX-35 i DAX-30

En aquest treball es porta a terme l’anàlisi del comportament dels índexs IBEX-35 i DAX-30 en el període comprès entre els anys 2008 – 2012. L’objectiu del treball és analitzar com han evolucionat determinades mesures del risc, com són, la Volatilitat, el VaR i el CVaR en els dos índexs. Aquest anàlisi té la finalitat d’aconseguir evidències del diferent comportament d’aquests índexs en el període analitzat, i així veure el diferent impacte que ha tingut la crisis econòmica actual en l’economia espanyola i alemanya.

La Política 2.0 amb la generació Nintendo

The eruption of Web 2.0 has transformed the uses and strategies of political communication. The campaign developed by Obama's team is a good example of the electoral efficiency of these new tools whose results we are now analysing and evaluating. While our present leaders could be classified as the "fax generation", the North American experience opens the doors to a new way of relating with the electoral masses. With these new instruments of interactive communication, voters have the space to be able to make their voices heard and to be able to affect the electoral programme, something which undoubtedly benefits an election campaign's degree of democratic quality

Measuring Party Positions and Issue Salience from Media Coverage: Introducing and Cross-Validating New Indicators

Recent studies have started to use media data to measure party positions and issue salience. The aim of this article is to compare and cross-validate this alternative approach with the more commonly used party manifestos, expert judgments and mass surveys. To this purpose, we present two methods to generate indicators of party positions and issue salience from media coverage: the core sentence approach and political claims analysis. Our cross-validation shows that with regard to party positions, indicators derived from the media converge with traditionally used measurements from party manifestos, mass surveys and expert judgments, but that salience indicators measure different underlying constructs. We conclude with a discussion of specific research questions for which media data offer potential advantages over more established methods.

First-passage and escape problems in the Feller process

The Feller process is an one-dimensional diffusion process with linear drift and state-dependent diffusion coefficient vanishing at the origin. The process is positive definite and it is this property along with its linear character that have made Feller process a convenient candidate for the modeling of a number of phenomena ranging from single-neuron firing to volatility of financial assets. While general properties of the process have long been well known, less known are properties related to level crossing such as the first-passage and the escape problems. In this work we thoroughly address these questions.