Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Comparing rice production systems: A challenge for agronomic research and for the dissemination of knowledge-intensive farming practices

This article is a commentary on several research studies conducted on the prospects for aerobic rice production systems that aim at reducing the demand for irrigation water which in certain major rice producing areas of the world is becoming increasingly scarce. The research studies considered, as reported in published articles mainly under the aegis of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), have a narrow scope in that they test only 3 or 4 rice varieties under different soil moisture treatments obtained with controlled irrigation, but with other agronomic factors of production held as constant. Consequently, these studies do not permit an assessment of the interactions among agronomic factors that will be of critical significance to the performance of any production system. Varying the production factor of "water" will seriously affect also the levels of the other factors required to optimise the performance of a production system. The major weakness in the studies analysed in this article originates from not taking account of the interactions between experimental and non-experimental factors involved in the comparisons between different production systems. This applies to the experimental field design used for the research studies as well as to the subsequent statistical analyses of the results. The existence of such interactions is a serious complicating element that makes meaningful comparisons between different crop production systems difficult. Consequently, the data and conclusions drawn from such research readily become biased towards proposing standardised solutions for possible introduction to farmers through a linear technology transfer process. Yet, the variability and diversity encountered in the real-world farming environment demand more flexible solutions and approaches in the dissemination of knowledge-intensive production practices through "experiential learning" types of processes, such as those employed by farmer field schools. This article illustrates, based on expertise of the 'system of rice intensification' (SRI), that several cost-effective and environment-friendly agronomic solutions to reduce the demand for irrigation water, other than the asserted need for the introduction of new cultivars, are feasible. Further, these agronomic Solutions can offer immediate benefits of reduced water requirements and increased net returns that Would be readily accessible to a wide range of rice producers, particularly the resource poor smallholders. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The neurokinin 1 receptor: a potential new target for anti-platelet therapy?

The important role of platelets in the development of arterial thrombosis and cardiovascular disease is well established. Current treatments for arterial thrombosis include anti-platelet agents such as aspirin, thienopyridines and glycoprotein IIb-IIIa inhibitors. Despite these drugs being effective there remains a substantial unmet clinical demand for more effective therapeutic approaches, which may reflect the existence of alternative underlying regulatory mechanisms to those already targeted. Recent publications have demonstrated a key role for tachykinins in the positive feedback regulation of platelet aggregation and thrombus formation. The pro-thrombotic effects of tachykinins on platelets are mediated through the neurokinin 1 receptor, which may therefore offer a novel therapeutic drug target in the prevention and the treatment of arterial thrombosis.

ONeSAMP: a program to estimate effective population size using approximate Bayesian computation

The estimation of effective population size from one sample of genotypes has been problematic because most estimators have been proven imprecise or biased. We developed a web-based program, ONeSAMP that uses approximate Bayesian computation to estimate effective population size from a sample of microsatellite genotypes. ONeSAMP requires an input file of sampled individuals' microsatellite genotypes along with information about several sampling and biological parameters. ONeSAMP provides an estimate of effective population size, along with 95% credible limits. We illustrate the use of ONeSAMP with an example data set from a re-introduced population of ibex Capra ibex.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Efficient and cost-effective experimental determination of kinetic constants and data: the success of a Bayesian systematic approach to drug transport, receptor binding, continuous culture and cell transport kinetics

Details about the parameters of kinetic systems are crucial for progress in both medical and industrial research, including drug development, clinical diagnosis and biotechnology applications. Such details must be collected by a series of kinetic experiments and investigations. The correct design of the experiment is essential to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. We have developed a systematic and iterative Bayesian method and sets of rules for the design of enzyme kinetic experiments. Our method selects the optimum design to collect data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimises the error in the parameters estimated. The rules select features of the design such as the substrate range and the number of measurements. We show here that this method can be directly applied to the study of other important kinetic systems, including drug transport, receptor binding, microbial culture and cell transport kinetics. It is possible to reduce the errors in the estimated parameters and, most importantly, increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness by reducing the necessary amount of experiments and data points measured. (C) 2003 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate Bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N-e), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N-e. estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N-e. Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N-e show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N-e values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N-e estimators by comparing the SUMMStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated rising initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and Ne less than or equal to 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N-e. The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any, potentially informative summary statistic from Population genetic data.

Mapping antimalarial pharmacophores as a useful tool for the rapid discovery of drugs effective in vivo: design, construction, characterization, and pharmacology of metaquine

Resistant strains of Plasmodium falciparum and the unavailability of useful antimalarial vaccines reinforce the need to develop new efficacious antimalarials. This study details a pharmacophore model that has been used to identify a potent, soluble, orally bioavailable antimalarial bisquinoline, metaquine (N,N'-bis(7-chloroquinolin-4-yl)benzene-1,3-diamine) (dihydrochloride), which is active against Plasmodium berghei in vivo (oral ID50 of 25 mu mol/kg) and multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum K1 in vitro (0.17 mu M). Metaquine shows strong affinity for the putative antimalarial receptor, heme at pH 7.4 in aqueous DMSO. Both crystallographic analyses and quantum mechanical calculations (HF/6-31+G*) reveal important regions of protonation and bonding thought to persist at parasitic vacuolar pH concordant with our receptor model. Formation of drug-heme adduct in solution was confirmed using high-resolution positive ion electrospray mass spectrometry. Metaquine showed strong binding with the receptor in a 1: 1 ratio (log K = 5.7 +/- 0.1) that was predicted by molecular mechanics calculations. This study illustrates a rational multidisciplinary approach for the development of new 4-aminoquinoline antimalarials, with efficacy superior to chloroquine, based on the use of a pharmacophore model.

6,6 '-bis (5,5,8,8-tetramethyl-5,6,7,8-tetrahydro-benzo[1,2,4]triazin-3-yl) [2,2 ']bipyridine, an effective extracting agent for the separation of americium(III) and curium(III) from the lanthanides

The extraction of americium(III), curium(III), and the lanthanides(III) from nitric acid by 6,6'- bis (5,5,8,8-tetramethyl-5,6,7,8-tetrahydro-benzo[1,2,4]triazin-3-yl)-[2,2'] bipyridine (CyMe4-BTBP) has been studied. Since the extraction kinetics were slow, N,N'-dimethyl-N,N'-dioctyl-2-(2-hexyloxy-ethyl)malonamide (DMDOHEMA) was added as a phase transfer reagent. With a mixture of 0.01 M CyMe4-BTBP + 0.25 M DMDOHEMA in n -octanol, extraction equilibrium was reached within 5 min of mixing. At a nitric acid concentration of 1 M, an americium(III) distribution ratio of approx. 10 was achieved. Americium(III)/lanthanide(III) separation factors between 50 (dysprosium) and 1500 (lanthanum) were obtained. Whereas americium(III) and curium(III) were extracted as disolvates, the stoichiometries of the lanthanide(III) complexes were not identified unambiguously, owing to the presence of DMDOHEMA. In the absence of DMDOHEMA, both americium(III) and europium(III) were extracted as disolvates. Back-extraction with 0.1 M nitric acid was thermodynamically possible but rather slow. Using a buffered glycolate solution of pH=4, an americium(III) distribution ratio of 0.01 was obtained within 5 min of mixing. There was no evidence of degradation of the extractant, for example, the extraction performance of CyMe4-BTBP during hydrolylsis with 1 M nitric acid did not change over a two month contact.