The Uzbek puzzle revisited: An analysis of economic performance in Uzbekistan since 1991

Ruziev, Kobil, Dow, Sheila, and Ghosh, Dipak, 'The Uzbek puzzle revisited: An analysis of economic performance in Uzbekistan since 1991', Central Asian Survey (2007) 26(1) pp.7-30 Special Issue: Focus on Uzbekistan RAE2008

Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales

Fuller-Love, Nerys, et al., 'Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales', European Urban and Regional Studies (2006) 13(2) pp.143-149 RAE2008

Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: a scenario analysis approach

Fuller-Love, N., Midmore, P., Thomas, D., Henley, A. (2006). Entrepreneurship and rural economic development: A scenario analysis approach. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour and Research, 12 (5), 289-305. RAE2008

A genetic algorithm based economic dispatch (GAED) with environmental constraint optimisation

The role of renewable energy in power systems is becoming more significant due to the increasing cost of fossil fuels and climate change concerns. However, the inclusion of Renewable Energy Generators (REG), such as wind power, has created additional problems for power system operators due to the variability and lower predictability of output of most REGs, with the Economic Dispatch (ED) problem being particularly difficult to resolve. In previous papers we had reported on the inclusion of wind power in the ED calculations. The simulation had been performed using a system model with wind power as an intermittent source, and the results of the simulation have been compared to that of the Direct Search Method (DSM) for similar cases. In this paper we report on our continuing investigations into using Genetic Algorithms (GA) for ED for an independent power system with a significant amount of wind energy in its generator portfolio. The results demonstrate, in line with previous reports in the literature, the effectiveness of GA when measured against a benchmark technique such as DSM.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

The political and economic context of Keynes’s 1933 Finlay lecture: transforming a business practitioner’s ways of knowing

This thesis is structured in the format of a three part Portfolio of Exploration to facilitate transformation in my ways of knowing to enhance an experienced business practitioner’s capabilities and effectiveness. A key factor in my ways of knowing, as opposed to what I know, is my exploration of context and assumptions. By interacting with my cultural, intellectual, economic, and social history, I seek to become critically aware of the biographical, historical, and cultural context of my beliefs and feelings about myself. This Portfolio is not exclusively for historians of economics or historians of ideas but also for those interested in becoming more aware of how these culturally assimilated frames of reference and bundles of assumptions that influence the way they perceive, think, decide, feel and interpret their experiences in order to operate more effectively in their professional and organisational lives. In the first part of my Portfolio, I outline and reflect upon my Portfolio’s overarching theory of adult development; the writings of Harvard’s Robert Kegan and Columbia University’s Jack Mezirow. The second part delves further into how meaning-making, the activity of how one organises and makes sense of the world and how meaning-making evolves to different levels of complexity. I explore how past experience and our interpretations of history influences our understandings since all perception is inevitably tinged with bias and entrenched ‘theory-laden’ assumptions. In my third part, I explore the 1933 inaugural University College Dublin Finlay Lecture delivered by economist John Maynard Keynes. My findings provide a new perspective and understanding of Keynes’s 1933 lecture by not solely reading or relying upon the text of the three contextualised essay versions of his lecture. The purpose and context of Keynes’s original longer lecture version was quite different to the three shorter essay versions published for the American, British and German audiences.

Studies on factors relating to the development of defects in commercial cheese

Defects in commercial cheese result in a downgrading of the final cheese and a consequential economic loss to the cheese producer. Developments of defects in cheese are often not fully understood and therefore not controllable by the producer. This research investigated the underlying factors in the development of split and secondary fermentation defect and of pinking defects in commercial Irish cheeses. Split defect in Swiss-type cheese is a common defect associated with eye formation and manifests as slits and cracks visible in the cut cheese loaf (Reinbold, 1972; Daly et al., 2010). No consensus exists as to the definitive causes of the defect and possible factors which may contribute to the defect were reviewed. Models were derived to describe the relationship between moisture, pH, and salt levels and the distance from sample location to the closest external block surface during cheese ripening. Significant gradients within the cheese blocks were observed for all measured parameters in cheeses at 7 day post/after manufacture. No significant pH gradient was found within the blocks on exit from hot-room ripening and at three months post exit from the hot-room. Moisture content reached equilibrium within the blocks between exit from hot-room and 3 months after exit from hot-room while salt and salt-to-moisture levels had not reached equilibrium within the cheese blocks even at three months after exit from hot-room ripening. A characterisation of Swiss-type cheeses produced from a seasonal milk supply was undertaken. Cheeses were sampled on two days per month of the production year, at three different times during the manufacturing day, at internal and external regions of the cheese block and at four ripening time points (7 days post manufacture, post hot-room, 14 days post hot-room and 3 months in a cold room after exit from hot-room). Compositional, biochemical and microbial indices were determined, and the results were analysed as a splitplot with a factorial arrangement of treatments (season, time of day, area) on the main plot and ripening time on the sub-plot. Season (and interactions) had a significant effect on pH and salt-in-moisture levels (SM), mean viable counts of L. helveticus, propionic acid and non-starter lactic acid bacteria, levels of primary and secondary proteolysis and cheese firmness. Levels of proteolysis increased significantly during hot-room ripening but also during cold room storage, signifying continued development of cheese ripening during cold storage (> 8°C). Rheological parameters (e.g. springiness and cohesiveness) were significantly affected by interactions between ripening and location within cheese blocks. Time of day of manufacture significantly affected mean cheese calcium levels at 7 days post manufacture and mean levels of arginine and mean viable counts of NSLAB. Cheeses produced during the middle of the production day had the best grading scores and were more consistent compared to cheeses produced early or late during day of manufacture. Cheeses with low levels of S/M and low values of resilience were associated with poor grades at 7 days post manufacture. Chesses which had high elastic index values and low values of springiness in the external areas after exit from hot-room ripening also obtained good commercial grades. Development of a pink colour defect is an intermittent defect in ripened cheese which may or may not contain an added colourant, e.g., annatto. Factors associated with the defect were reviewed. Attempts at extraction and identification of the pink discolouration were unsuccessful. The pink colour partitioned with the water insoluble protein fraction. No significant difference was observed between ripened control and defect cheese for oxygen levels and redox potential or for the results of elemental analysis. A possible relationship between starter activity and defect development was established in cheeses with added coulourant, as lower levels of residual galactose and lactose were observed in defective cheese compared to control cheese free of the defect. Swiss-type cheese without added colourant had significantly higher levels of arginine and significantly lower lactate levels. Flow cell cytometry indicated that levels of bacterial cell viability and metabolic state differed between control and defect cheeses (without added colourant). Pyrosequencing analysis of cheese samples with and without the defect detected the previously unreported bacteria in cheese, Deinococcus thermus (a potential carotenoid producer). Defective Swiss-type cheeses had elevated levels of Deinococcus thermus compared to control cheeses, however the direct cause of pink was not linked to this bacterium alone. Overall, research was undertaken on underlying factors associated with the development of specific defects in commercial cheese, but also characterised the dynamic changes in key microbial and physicochemical parameters during cheese ripening and storage. This will enable the development of processing technologies to enable seasonal manipulation of manufacture protocols to minimise compositional and biochemical variability and to reduce and inhibit the occurrence of specific quality defects.

Exploring an agent as an economic insider threat solution

The insider threat is a security problem that is well-known and has a long history, yet it still remains an invisible enemy. Insiders know the security processes and have accesses that allow them to easily cover their tracks. In recent years the idea of monitoring separately for these threats has come into its own. However, the tools currently in use have disadvantages and one of the most effective techniques of human review is costly. This paper explores the development of an intelligent agent that uses already in-place computing material for inference as an inexpensive monitoring tool for insider threats. Design Science Research (DSR) is a methodology used to explore and develop an IT artifact, such as for this intelligent agent research. This methodology allows for a structure that can guide a deep search method for problems that may not be possible to solve or could add to a phenomenological instantiation.

Depression and 'crises of meaninglessness' in the political-economic theology of the money-God

The thesis starts with a historical analysis of the development of depression as a concept. Through this inquiry, the controversies behind the apparent consensus about depression’s etiology and treatment are illuminated, suggesting that the understanding of the climbing rates of depression in contemporary Western civilization is still up for grabs. That’s what the thesis sets out to investigate. In order to accomplish this aim, the study builds upon the classical accounts of Georg Simmel, Émile Durkheim and the more contemporary ideas of Dany-Robert Dufour, in dialogue with an array of supplementary theoretical sources. Navigating through this ‘sea’ of extraordinary and different theories, a new avenue of reflections arises, contributing for the sophistication of the questions made about the phenomenon of depression’s rates. The fundamental argument emerging from this theoretical undertaking is that ‘crises of meaninglessness’ that pervade the collective body of Western contemporary societies have, as one of its consequences, the expansion of depression rates. Meaninglessness in contemporary times is the primary object of investigation of the thesis. The concept, in the context of this study, is not understood as merely an effect of the historical decline of shared social norms due to processes of individualization. Rather, it is claimed, it originates from and is reinforced by the ‘political-economic theology of neo-liberalism’ which becomes virtually generalized in the West, erecting money as a God. The study concludes that by undermining culturally established values, ideals, institutions and principles that may block the dissemination of commodities this new transcendence has been challenging the task of signifying life, potentializing – among other subjective difficulties – the diffusion of depression.

Essays on Vietnam’s Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors ß’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.

The Entrepreneurial Facets as Precursor to Vietnam’s Economic Renovation in 1986

In this research, we aim to develop a conceptual framework to assess the entrepreneurial properties of the Vietnamese reform, known as Doi Moi, even before the kickoff of Doi Moi policy itself. We argued that unlike many other scholars’ assertion, economic crisis and harsh realities were neither necessary nor sufficient conditions for the reform to take place, but the entrepreurial elements and undertaking were, at least for case of Vietnam’s reform. Entrepreneurial process on the one hand sought for structural changes, kicked off innovation, and on the other its induced outcome further invited changes and associated opportunities. The paper also concludes that an assessment of possibility for the next stage of Doi Moi in should take into account the entrepreneurial factors of the economy, and by predicting the emergence of new entrepreneurial facets in the next phase of economic development.

Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data

Empirical modeling of high-frequency currency market data reveals substantial evidence for nonnormality, stochastic volatility, and other nonlinearities. This paper investigates whether an equilibrium monetary model can account for nonlinearities in weekly data. The model incorporates time-nonseparable preferences and a transaction cost technology. Simulated sample paths are generated using Marcet's parameterized expectations procedure. The paper also develops a new method for estimation of structural economic models. The method forces the model to match (under a GMM criterion) the score function of a nonparametric estimate of the conditional density of observed data. The estimation uses weekly U.S.-German currency market data, 1975-90. © 1995.

Public goods in networks

This paper considers incentives to provide goods that are non-excludable along social or geographic links. We find, first, that networks can lead to specialization in public good provision. In every social network there is an equilibrium where some individuals contribute and others free ride. In many networks, this extreme is the only outcome. Second, specialization can benefit society as a whole. This outcome arises when contributors are linked, collectively, to many agents. Finally, a new link increases access to public goods, but reduces individual incentives to contribute. Hence, overall welfare can be higher when there are holes in a network. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.