Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-fortime substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Multiplex PCR for Assessment of Tetracycline Resistance (tet) Genes in Antibiotic-Resistant Soil Bacteria and the Ecological Implications

Antibiotics are becoming increasingly prevalent in bacterial communities due to clinical and agricultural misuse and overuse in their environment. As exposure increases, so does the incidence of microbial resistance. Such is the case with bacterial resistance to tetracyclines, a phenotype often acquired through the horizontal gene transfer of tet genes between bacteria. The objective of this project was to analyze the bacterial diversity of tet resistance genes in soil from Miami-Dade County. Bacterial isolates were Gram-stained and the Kirby-Bauer antibiotic disk diffusion test was performed to determine each bacterium’s degree of resistance. The 16S rRNA gene from antibiotic-resistant isolates was amplified by PCR and sequenced to identify the isolates. All isolates’ tet genes were amplified by multiplex PCR, sequenced, and compared. Among eight isolates, three distinct species were positively identified based on their 16S rRNA sequences and four distinct tet genes were identified, though all tested susceptible to tetracycline via the Kirby-Bauer test. This project clarifies some aspects of the ecology of antibiotic resistance genes, their natural ecological function and the potential for the expansion of intrinsic multi-antibiotic resistance into new ecosystems and/or hosts.

Ecological Homogenization of Urban USA

A visually apparent but scientifically untested outcome of land-use change is homogenization across urban areas, where neighborhoods in different parts of the country have similar patterns of roads, residential lots, commercial areas, and aquatic features. We hypothesize that this homogenization extends to ecological structure and also to ecosystem functions such as carbon dynamics and microclimate, with continental-scale implications. Further, we suggest that understanding urban homogenization will provide the basis for understanding the impacts of urban land-use change from local to continental scales. Here, we show how multi-scale, multi-disciplinary datasets from six metropolitan areas that cover the major climatic regions of the US (Phoenix, AZ; Miami, FL; Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Minneapolis–St Paul, MN; and Los Angeles, CA) can be used to determine how household and neighborhood characteristics correlate with land-management practices, land-cover composition, and landscape structure and ecosystem functions at local, regional, and continental scales.

Ecological Science and Transformation to the Sustainable City

There is growing urgency to enhance the sustainability of existing and emerging cities. The science of ecology, especially as it interacts with disciplines in the social sciences and urban design, has contributions to make to the sustainable transformation of urban systems. Not all possible urban transformations may lead toward sustainability. Ecological science helps identify components of resilience that can favor transformations that are more sustainable. To summarize the dynamics and choices involved in sustainable transformations, a “metacity” framework is presented, embracing ecological processes in cities as complementary to those involving society, power, and economy.

The Roles of Large Top Predators in Coastal Ecosystems: New Insights from Long Term Ecological Research

During recent human history, human activities such as overhunting and habitat destruction have severely impacted many large top predator populations around the world. Studies from a variety of ecosystems show that loss or diminishment of top predator populations can have serious consequences for population and community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, there are relatively few studies of the roles of large top predators in coastal ecosystems, so that we do not yet completely understand what could happen to coastal areas if large top predators are extirpated or significantly reduced in number. This lack of knowledge is surprising given that coastal areas around the globe are highly valued and densely populated by humans, and thus coastal large top predator populations frequently come into conflict with coastal human populations. This paper reviews what is known about the ecological roles of large top predators in coastal systems and presents a synthesis of recent work from three coastal eastern US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites where long-term studies reveal what appear to be common themes relating to the roles of large top predators in coastal systems. We discuss three specific themes: (1) large top predators acting as mobile links between disparate habitats, (2) large top predators potentially affecting nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors, and (3) individual specialization of large top predator behaviors. We also discuss how research within the LTER network has led to enhanced understanding of the ecological roles of coastal large top predators. Highlighting this work is intended to encourage further investigation of the roles of large top predators across diverse coastal aquatic habitats and to better inform researchers and ecosystem managers about the importance of large top predators for coastal ecosystem health and stability.

The Next Generation of Scientists: Examining the Experiences of Graduate Students in Network-Level Social-Ecological Science

By integrating the research and resources of hundreds of scientists from dozens of institutions, network-level science is fast becoming one scientific model of choice to address complex problems. In the pursuit to confront pressing environmental issues such as climate change, many scientists, practitioners, policy makers, and institutions are promoting network-level research that integrates the social and ecological sciences. To understand how this scientific trend is unfolding among rising scientists, we examined how graduate students experienced one such emergent social-ecological research initiative, Integrated Science for Society and Environment, within the large-scale, geographically distributed Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network. Through workshops, surveys, and interviews, we found that graduate students faced challenges in how they conceptualized and practiced social-ecological research within the LTER Network. We have presented these conceptual challenges at three scales: the individual/project, the LTER site, and the LTER Network. The level of student engagement with and knowledge of the LTER Network was varied, and students faced different institutional, cultural, and logistic barriers to practicing social-ecological research. These types of challenges are unlikely to be unique to LTER graduate students; thus, our findings are relevant to other scientific networks implementing new social-ecological research initiatives.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change in South Florida

Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. ^ This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach's storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. ^ The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.^

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.