893 resultados para EPIDEMIC
Resumo:
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly contagious and one of the most economically devastating diseases of cloven-hoofed animals. Scientific-based preparedness about how to best control the disease in a previously FMD-free country is therefore essential for veterinary services. The present study used a spatial, stochastic epidemic simulation model to compare the effectiveness of emergency vaccination with conventional (non-vaccination) control measures in Switzerland, a low-livestock density country. Model results revealed that emergency vaccination with a radius of 3 km or 10 km around infected premises (IP) did not significantly reduce either the cumulative herd incidence or epidemic duration if started in a small epidemic situation where the number of IPs is still low. However, in a situation where the epidemic has become extensive, both the cumulative herd incidence and epidemic duration are reduced significantly if vaccination were implemented with a radius of 10 km around IPs. The effect of different levels of conventional strategy measures was also explored for the non-vaccination strategy. It was found that a lower compliance level of farmers for movement restrictions and delayed culling of IPs significantly increased both the cumulative IP incidence and epidemic duration. Contingency management should therefore focus mainly on improving conventional strategies, by increasing disease awareness and communication with stakeholders and preparedness of culling teams in countries with a livestock structure similar to Switzerland; however, emergency vaccination should be considered if there are reasons to believe that the epidemic may become extensive, such as when disease detection has been delayed and many IPs are discovered at the beginning of the epidemic.
Resumo:
The outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Great Britain in 2001 let to discussions and especially emergency vaccination was deemed as an alternative to the culling of vast numbers of healthy animals. The project emergency vaccination for FMD in Switzerland was conducted to compare the effectiveness of conventional control strategies during a FMD outbreak alone and with ring vaccination of 3 km and 10 km, respectively. The results of this project showed that emergency vaccination conducted at the beginning of an epidemic was not favorable compared to conventional disease control strategy in Switzerland. In case of an advanced FMD epidemic, a 10 km ring vaccination could support the disease control in a positive way. However, the goal of emergency vaccination to save animal live can hardly be achieved due to actual legal basis and the consequent restriction measures within vaccination zones which will lead to welfare culling.
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Enterococcus faecium has emerged as an important nosocomial pathogen worldwide, and this trend has been associated with the dissemination of a genetic lineage designated clonal cluster 17 (CC17). Enterococcal isolates were collected prospectively (2006 to 2008) from 32 hospitals in Colombia, Ecuador, Perú, and Venezuela and subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Genotyping was performed with all vancomycin-resistant E. faecium (VREfm) isolates by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing. All VREfm isolates were evaluated for the presence of 16 putative virulence genes (14 fms genes, the esp gene of E. faecium [espEfm], and the hyl gene of E. faecium [hylEfm]) and plasmids carrying the fms20-fms21 (pilA), hylEfm, and vanA genes. Of 723 enterococcal isolates recovered, E. faecalis was the most common (78%). Vancomycin resistance was detected in 6% of the isolates (74% of which were E. faecium). Eleven distinct PFGE types were found among the VREfm isolates, with most belonging to sequence types 412 and 18. The ebpAEfm-ebpBEfm-ebpCEfm (pilB) and fms11-fms19-fms16 clusters were detected in all VREfm isolates from the region, whereas espEfm and hylEfm were detected in 69% and 23% of the isolates, respectively. The fms20-fms21 (pilA) cluster, which encodes a putative pilus-like protein, was found on plasmids from almost all VREfm isolates and was sometimes found to coexist with hylEfm and the vanA gene cluster. The population genetics of VREfm in South America appear to resemble those of such strains in the United States in the early years of the CC17 epidemic. The overwhelming presence of plasmids encoding putative virulence factors and vanA genes suggests that E. faecium from the CC17 genogroup may disseminate in the region in the coming years.
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The objective of this study is to identify the relationship between population density and the initial stages of the spread of disease in a local population. This study proposes to concentrate on the question of how population density affects the distribution of the susceptible individuals in a local population and thus affects the spread of the disease, measles. Population density is measured by the average of the number of contacts with susceptible individuals by each individual in the population during a fixed-length time period. The term “contact with susceptible individuals” means sufficient contact between two people for the disease to pass from an infectious person to a susceptible person. The fixed-length time period is taken to be the average length of time an infected person is infectious without symptoms of the disease. For this study of measles, the time period will be seven days. ^ While much attention has been given to modeling the entire epidemic process of measles, attempts have not been made to study the characteristics of contact rates required to initiate an epidemic. This study explores the relationship between population density, given a specific herd immunity rate in the population, and initial rate of the spread of the disease by considering the underlying distribution of contacts with susceptibles by the individuals in the population. ^ This study does not seek to model an entire measles epidemic, but to model the above stated relationship for the local population within which the first infective person is introduced. This study describes the mathematical relationship between population density parameters and contact distribution parameters. ^ The results are displayed in graphs that show the effects of different population densities on the spread of disease. The results support the idea that the number of new infectives is strongly related to the distribution of susceptible contacts. The results also show large differences in the epidemic measures between populations with densities equal to four versus three. ^
Resumo:
Prevalence and genetic relatedness were determined for third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli (3GC-R-Ec) detected in Swiss beef, veal, pork, and poultry retail meat. Samples from meat-packing plants (MPPs) processing 70% of the slaughtered animals in Switzerland were purchased at different intervals between April and June 2013 and analyzed. Sixty-nine 3GC-R-Ec isolates were obtained and characterized by microarray, PCR/DNA sequencing, Multi Locus Sequence Typing (MLST), and plasmid replicon typing. Plasmids of selected strains were transformed by electroporation into E. coli TOP10 cells and analyzed by plasmid MLST. The prevalence of 3GC-R-Ec was 73.3% in chicken and 2% in beef meat. No 3GC-R-Ec were found in pork and veal. Overall, the blaCTX-M-1 (79.4%), blaCMY-2 (17.6%), blaCMY-4 (1.5%), and blaSHV-12 (1.5%) β-lactamase genes were detected, as well as other genes conferring resistance to chloramphenicol (cmlA1-like), sulfonamides (sul), tetracycline (tet), and trimethoprim (dfrA). The 3GC-R-Ec from chicken meat often harbored virulence genes associated with avian pathogens. Plasmid incompatibility (Inc) groups IncI1, IncFIB, IncFII, and IncB/O were the most frequent. A high rate of clonality (e.g., ST1304, ST38, and ST93) among isolates from the same MPPs suggests that strains persist at the plant and spread to meat at the carcass-processing stage. Additionally, the presence of the blaCTX-M-1 gene on an IncI1 plasmid sequence type 3 (IncI1/pST3) in genetically diverse strains indicates interstrain spread of an epidemic plasmid. The blaCMY-2 and blaCMY-4 genes were located on IncB/O plasmids. This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of 3GC-R-Ec in meat in Switzerland. It demonstrates the need for monitoring contaminants and for the adaptation of the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point concept to avoid the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria through the food chain.
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Switzerland has a complex human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic involving several populations. We examined transmission of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) in a national cohort study. Latent class analysis was used to identify socioeconomic and behavioral groups among 6,027 patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 2000 and 2011. Phylogenetic analysis of sequence data, available for 4,013 patients, was used to identify transmission clusters. Concordance between sociobehavioral groups and transmission clusters was assessed in correlation and multiple correspondence analyses. A total of 2,696 patients were infected with subtype B, 203 with subtype C, 196 with subtype A, and 733 with recombinant subtypes (mainly CRF02_AG and CRF01_AE). Latent class analysis identified 8 patient groups. Most transmission clusters of subtype B were shared between groups of gay men (groups 1-3) or between the heterosexual groups "heterosexual people of lower socioeconomic position" (group 4) and "injection drug users" (group 8). Clusters linking homosexual and heterosexual groups were associated with "older heterosexual and gay people on welfare" (group 5). "Migrant women in heterosexual partnerships" (group 6) and "heterosexual migrants on welfare" (group 7) shared non-B clusters with groups 4 and 5. Combining approaches from social and molecular epidemiology can provide insights into HIV-1 transmission and inform the design of prevention strategies.
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The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.
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Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), popularly known as 'mad cow disease', led to an epidemic in Europe that peaked in the mid-1990s. Its impact on developing countries, such as Nigeria, has not been fully established as information on livestock and surveillance has eluded those in charge of this task. The BSE risk to Nigeria's cattle population currently remains undetermined, which has resulted in international trade restrictions on commodities from the cattle population. This is mainly because of a lack of updated BSE risk assessments and disease surveillance data. To evaluate the feasibility of BSE surveillance in Nigeria, we carried out a pilot study targeting cattle that were presented for emergency or casualty slaughter. In total, 1551 cattle of local breeds, aged 24 months and above were clinically examined. Ataxia, recumbency and other neurological signs were topmost on our list of criteria. A total of 96 cattle, which correspond to 6.2%, presented clinical signs that supported a suspect of BSE. The caudal brainstem tissues of these animals were collected post-mortem and analysed for the disease-specific form of the prion protein using a rapid test approved by the International Animal Health Organization (OIE). None of the samples were positive for BSE. Although our findings do not exclude the presence of BSE in Nigeria, they do demonstrate that targeted sampling of clinically suspected cases of BSE is feasible in developing countries. In addition, these findings point to the possibility of implementing clinical monitoring schemes for BSE and potentially other diseases with grave economic and public health consequences.
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We screened a total of 340 veterinarians (including general practitioners, small animal practitioners, large animal practitioners, veterinarians working in different veterinary services or industry), and 29 veterinary assistants for nasal carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) at the 2012 Swiss veterinary annual meeting. MRSA isolates (n = 14) were detected in 3.8 % (95 % CI 2.1 - 6.3 %) of the participants whereas MRSP was not detected. Large animal practitioners were carriers of livestock-associated MRSA (LA-MRSA) ST398-t011-V (n = 2), ST398-t011-IV (n = 4), and ST398-t034-V (n = 1). On the other hand, participants working with small animals harbored human healthcare-associated MRSA (HCA-MRSA) which belonged to epidemic lineages ST225-t003-II (n = 2), ST225-t014-II (n = 1), ST5-t002-II (n = 2), ST5-t283-IV (n = 1), and ST88-t186-IV (n = 1). HCA-MRSA harbored virulence factors such as enterotoxins, β-hemolysin converting phage and leukocidins. None of the MRSA isolates carried Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL). In addition to the methicillin resistance gene mecA, LA-MRSA ST398 isolates generally contained additional antibiotic resistance genes conferring resistance to tetracycline [tet(M) and tet(K)], trimethoprim [dfrK, dfrG], and the aminoglycosides gentamicin and kanamycin [aac(6')-Ie - aph(2')-Ia]. On the other hand, HCA-MRSA ST5 and ST225 mainly contained genes conferring resistance to the macrolide, lincosamide and streptogramin B antibiotics [erm(A)], to spectinomycin [ant(9)-Ia], amikacin and tobramycin [ant(4')-Ia], and to fluoroquinolones [amino acid substitutions in GrlA (S84L) and GyrA (S80F and S81P)]. MRSA carriage may represent an occupational risk and veterinarians should be aware of possible MRSA colonization and potential for developing infection or for transmitting these strains. Professional exposure to animals should be reported upon hospitalization and before medical intervention to allow for preventive measures. Infection prevention measures are also indicated in veterinary medicine to avoid MRSA transmission between humans and animals, and to limit the spread of MRSA both in the community, and to animal and human hospitals.
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Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) caused by Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae is a severe epidemic affecting mainly domestic Caprinae species but also affects wild Caprinae species. M. capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae belongs to the "Mycoplasma mycoides cluster." The disease features prominently in East Africa, in particular Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. CCPP also endangers wildlife and thus affects not only basic nutritional resources of large populations but also expensively built-up game resorts in affected countries. Here, we report the complete sequences of two M. capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae strains: the type strain F38 and strain ILRI181 isolated druing a recent outbreak in Kenya. Both genomes have a G+C content of 24% with sizes of 1,016,760 bp and 1,017,183 bp for strains F38 and ILRI181, respectively.
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Background: According to the World Health Organization, stroke is the 'incoming epidemic of the 21st century'. In light of recent data suggesting that 85% of all strokes may be preventable, strategies for prevention are moving to the forefront in stroke management. Summary: This review discusses the risk factors and provides evidence on the effective medical interventions and lifestyle modifications for optimal stroke prevention. Key Messages: Stroke risk can be substantially reduced using the medical measures that have been proven in many randomized trials, in combination with effective lifestyle modifications. The global modification of health and lifestyle is more beneficial than the treatment of individual risk factors. Clinical Implications: Hypertension is the most important modifiable risk factor for stroke. Efficacious reduction of blood pressure is essential for stroke prevention, even more so than the choice of antihypertensive drugs. Indications for the use of antihypertensive drugs depend on blood pressure values and vascular risk profile; thus, treatment should be initiated earlier in patients with diabetes mellitus or in those with a high vascular risk profile. Treatment of dyslipidemia with statins, anticoagulation therapy in atrial fibrillation, and carotid endarterectomy in symptomatic high-grade carotid stenosis are also effective for stroke prevention. Lifestyle factors that have been proven to reduce stroke risk include reducing salt, eliminating smoking, performing regular physical activity, and maintaining a normal body weight. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.
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Social stressors at work (such as conflict or animosities) imply disrespect or a lack of appreciation and thus a threat to self. Stress induced by this offence to self might result, over time, in a change in body weight. The current study investigated the impact of changing working conditions--specifically social stressors, demands, and control at work--on women's change in weighted Body-Mass-Index over the course of a year. Fifty-seven women in their first year of occupational life participated at baseline and thirty-eight at follow-up. Working conditions were assessed by self-reports and observer-ratings. Body-Mass-Index at baseline and change in Body-Mass-Index one year later were regressed on self-reported social stressors as well as observed work stressors, observed job control, and their interaction. Seen individually, social stressors at work predicted Body-Mass-Index. Moreover, increase in social stressors and decrease of job control during the first year of occupational life predicted increase in Body-Mass-Index. Work redesign that reduces social stressors at work and increases job control could help to prevent obesity epidemic.
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Background: In the last decades, children’s and adolescents’ obesity and overweight have increased in European Countries. Unhealthy eating habits and sedentary lifestyle have been recognized to determine such an epidemic. Schools represent an ideal setting to modify harmful behaviors, and physical activity could be regarded as a potential way to avoid the metabolic risks related to obesity. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was carried out to summarize the evidence of school-based interventions aimed to promote, enhance and implement physical activity in European schools. Only randomized controlled trials were included, carried out in Europe from January 2000 to April 2014, universally delivered and targeting pupils aged between 3 and 18 years old. Results: Forty-seven studies were retrieved based either on multicomponent interventions or solely physical activity programs. Most aimed to prevent obesity and cardiovascular risks among youths. While few studies showed a decrease in BMI, positive results were achieved on other outcomes, such as metabolic parameters and physical fitness. Conclusion: Physical activity in schools should be regarded as a simple, non-expensive and enjoyable way to reach all the children and adolescents with adequate doses of moderate to vigorous physical activity.
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Switzerland had been affected by the bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Europe in the years 2007 to 2009. After three years of mandatory vaccination and comprehensive surveillance, Switzerland showed to be free of BTV-8 in 2012. In the future Elisa testing of bulk-tank milk (BTM) samples as a very sensitive and cost-effective method should be used for the surveillance of all serotypes of BTV. To determine the prevalence of seropositive herds, BTM from 240 cattle herds was sampled in July 2012. The results showed an apparent seroprevalence of 98.7% in the investigated dairy herds. Most plausible, the high prevalence was caused by the vaccination campaigns rather than by infections with BTV-8. In the outbreak the cumulative number of BTV-8 cases in Switzerland had been 75.Thus it is very likely that the used inactivated vaccines induced long-term antibody titres. Due to the high seroprevalence, investigating for BT-antibodies cannot be used for early recognition of a new introduction of BTV at the moment. Nonetheless, testing of BTM samples is appropriate for an annual evaluation of the seroprevalence and especially as an instrument for early recognition for incursions as soon as the antibody prevalence declines.To determine this decline the BTM testing scheme should be conducted each year as described in this work.