993 resultados para Disease Modeling
Resumo:
This paper presents new integrated model for variable-speed wind energy conversion systems, considering a more accurate dynamic of the wind turbine, rotor, generator, power converter and filter. Pulse width modulation by space vector modulation associated with sliding mode is used for controlling the power converters. Also, power factor control is introduced at the output of the power converters. Comprehensive performance simulation studies are carried out with matrix, two-level and multilevel power converter topologies in order to adequately assert the system performance. Conclusions are duly drawn.
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Lyme Disease is a tick-borne (specially by Ixodes ticks) immune-mediated inflammatory disorder caused by a newly recognize spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi. Indirect fluorescent antibody (IF) staining methods and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay are frequently relied upon to confirm Lyme borreliosis infections. Although serologic testing for antibodies has limitations, it is still the only practical means of confirming B. burgdorferi infections. Because we have no previous report of Lyme disease in human inhabitants in Argentina, a study was designed as a seroepidemiologic investigation of the immune response to B. burgdorferi in farm workers of Argentina with arthritis symptoms. Three out of 28 sera were positive (#1,5 and 9). Serum # 1 was positive for Immunoglobulin G at dilution 1:320, serum # 5 and # 9 both to dilution 1:160; while for Immunoglobulin M all (#1, 5 and 9) were positive at low dilution (1:40) using IF. The results showed that antibodies against B. burgdorferi are present in an Argentinian population. Thus caution should be exercised in the clinical interpretation of arthritis until the presence of B. burgdorferi be confirmed by culture in specific media.
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The results from the need to develop methodologies for performing cost analysis in developing countries, principally in the region of Latin America, were studied. It, furthermore, serves to generate knowledge from an economic evaluation in order to support decision-making related to the organization of health systems, particularly in the efficient use of resources which are allocated for the provision of medical services. Two chronic diseases (breast cancer and cardiac valve disease) and two infections (enteritis and bronchopneumonia) were selected for the study. The results recommend the use of a valid methodology for economic cost analysis of any disease to be studied and the use of this information in the decision-making process.
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The rise in ischemic heart disease(IHD) mortality occurring mostly during the first half of the 20th century is usually associated with economic development and its consequences for people's lifestyles. On the basis of historical evidence, it is postulated that a previous IHD epidemic cycle may have occurred in England and Wales towards the turn of the nineteenth century. The implications of this on causal theories and current etiological research on atherosclerosis are discussed.
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Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.
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INTRODUCTION: A descriptive, entomological and seroepidemiological study on Chagas disease was conducted in a place of recent occupation on the outskirts of Cochabamba, Bolivia: Avaroa/Primer de Mayo (population:3,000), where the socio-economic level is low and no control measures have been made available. METHODS: The immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT) was used for IgG and IgM anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies in filter paper bloodspot eluates from 128 subjects (73 females, 55 males) selected by systematic sampling. Concerning each subject age, gender, birthplace, occupation, duration of residence and building materials used in their houses were recorded. Vectors were captured both in domestic and peridomestic environments. RESULTS: Seropositive, 12.5% (16/128): females, 15.1% (11/73); males, 9.1% (5/55). Average time of residence: 6.1 years for the whole population sample and 7.4 years for the seropositive subjects. Most houses had adobe walls (76.7% , n= 30), galvanized iron rooves (86.7%) and earthen floors (53.4%) 80% of the walls had crevices. One hundred forty seven specimens of Triatoma infestans were captured, of which 104 (70.7%) were domestic, and 1 peridomestic Triatoma sordida. Precipitin host identification: birds, 67.5%; humans, 27.8%; rodents, 11.9%; dogs, 8.7%; cats, 1.6%. House infestation and density indices were 53.3 and 493.0 respectively. We found 21 (14.3%) specimens of T. infestans infected with trypanosomes, 18 (85.7%) of which in domestic environments. DISCUSSION: The elements for the vector transmission of Chagas disease are present in Avaroa/Primer de Mayo and the ancient custom of keeping guinea pigs indoors adds to the risk of human infection. In neighboring Cochabamba, due to substandard quality control, contaminated blood transfusions are not infrequent, which further aggravates the spread of Chagas disease. Prompt action to check the transmission of this infection, involving additionally the congenital and transfusional modes of acquisition, is required.
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The presence of entrapped air in pressurized hydraulic systems is considered a critical condition for the infrastructure security, due to the transient pressure enhancement related with its dynamic behaviour, similar to non-linear spring action. A mathematical model for the assessment of hydraulic transients resulting from rapid pressurizations, under referred condition is presented. Water movement was modeled through the elastic column theory considering a moving liquid boundary and the entrapped air pocket as lumped gas mass, where the acoustic effects are negligible. The method of characteristics was used to obtain the numerical solution of the liquid flow. The resulting model is applied to an experimental set-up having entrapped air in the top of a vertical pipe section and the numerical results are analyzed.
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A doença de Machado-Joseph (DMJ) ou ataxia espinocerebelosa do tipo 3 (SCA3), conhecida por ser a mais comum das ataxias hereditárias dominantes em todo o mundo, é uma doença neurodegenerativa autossómica dominante que leva a uma grande incapacidade motora, embora sem alterar o intelecto, culminando com a morte do doente. Atualmente não existe nenhum tratamento eficaz para esta doença. A DMJ é resultado de uma alteração genética causada pela expansão de uma sequência poliglutamínica (poliQ), na região C-terminal do gene que codifica a proteína ataxina-3 (ATXN3). Os mecanismos celulares das doenças de poliglutaminas que provocam toxicidade, bem como a função da ATXN3, não são ainda totalmente conhecidos. Neste trabalho, usamos, pela sua simplicidade e potencial genético, um pequeno animal invertebrado, o nemátode C. elegans, com o objetivo de identificar fármacos eficazes para o combate contra a patogénese da DMJ, analisando simultaneamente o seu efeito na agregação da ATXN3 mutante nas células neuronais in vivo e o seu impacto no comportamento motor dos animais. Este pequeno invertebrado proporciona grandes vantagens no estudo dos efeitos tóxicos de proteínas poliQ nos neurónios, uma vez que a transparência das suas 959 células (das quais 302 são neurónios) facilita a deteção de proteínas fluorescentes in vivo. Para além disso, esta espécie tem um ciclo de vida curto, é económica e de fácil manutenção. Neste trabalho testámos no nosso modelo transgénico da DMJ com 130Qs em C.elegans dois compostos potencialmente moduladores da agregação da ATXN3 mutante e da resultante disfunção neurológica, atuando pela via da autofagia. De modo a validar a possível importância terapêutica da ativação da autofagia os compostos candidatos escolhidos foram o Litío e o análogo da Rapamicina CCI-779, testados independentemente e em combinação. A neuroproteção conferida pelo Litío e pelo CCI-779 independentemente sugere que o uso destes fármacos possa ser considerado uma boa estratégia como terapia para a DMJ, a testar em organismos evolutivamente mais próximos do humano. A manipulação da autofagia, segundo vários autores, parece ser benéfica e pode ser a chave para o desenvolvimento de novos tratamentos para várias doenças relacionadas com a agregação proteica e o envelhecimento.
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This paper proposes a novel framework for modelling the Value for the Customer, the so-called the Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer (CMDVC). This conceptual model is first validated through an exploratory case study where the authors validate both the proposed constructs of the model and their relations. In a second step the authors propose a mathematical formulation for the CMDVC as well as a computational method. This has enabled the final quantitative discussion of how the CMDVC can be applied and used in the enterprise environment, and the final validation by the people in the enterprise. Along this research, we were able to confirm that the results of this novel quantitative approach to model the Value for the Customer is consistent with the company's empirical experience. The paper further discusses the merits and limitations of this approach, proposing that the model is likely to bring value to support not only the contract preparation at an Ex-Ante Negotiation Phase, as demonstrated, but also along the actual negotiation process, as finally confirmed by an enterprise testimonial.
Resumo:
Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS. SIRM) and grain size (chi(ARM), ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6 m and run up of similar to 7 m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1 m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments.
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The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.
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OBJECTIVE: To study the risk of Trypanosoma cruzi domestic transmission using an entomological index and to explore its relationship with household's characteristics and cultural aspects. METHODS: There were studied 158 households in an endemic area in Argentina. Each household was classified according to an entomological risk indicator (number of risky bites/human). A questionnaire was administered to evaluate risk factors among householders. RESULTS: Infested households showed a wide range of risk values (0 to 5 risky bites/human) with skewed distribution, a high frequency of lower values and few very high risk households. Of all collected Triatoma infestans, 44% had had human blood meals whereas 27% had had dogs or chickens blood meals. Having dogs and birds sharing room with humans increased the risk values. Tidy clean households had contributed significantly to lower risk values as a result of low vector density. The infested households showed a 24.3% correlation between time after insecticide application and the number of vectors. But there was no correlation between the time after insecticide application and T. infestans' infectivity. The statistical analysis showed a high correlation between current values of the entomological risk indicator and Trypanosoma cruzi seroprevalence in children. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of T. cruzi domestic transmission assessed using an entomological index show a correlation with children seroprevalence for Chagas' disease and householders' habits.
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In the context of previous publications, we propose a new lightweight UM process, intended to work as a tourism recommender system in a commercial environment. The new process tackles issues like cold start, gray sheep and over specialization through a rich user model and the application of a gradual forgetting function to the collected user action history. Also, significant performance improvements were achieved regarding the previously proposed UM process.
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This paper aims to present a multi-agent model for a simulation, whose goal is to help one specific participant of multi-criteria group decision making process.This model has five main intervenient types: the human participant, who is using the simulation and argumentation support system; the participant agents, one associated to the human participant and the others simulating the others human members of the decision meeting group; the directory agent; the proposal agents, representing the different alternatives for a decision (the alternatives are evaluated based on criteria); and the voting agent responsiblefor all voting machanisms.At this stage it is proposed a two phse algorithm. In the first phase each participantagent makes his own evaluation of the proposals under discussion, and the voting agent proposes a simulation of a voting process.In the second phase, after the dissemination of the voting results,each one ofthe partcipan agents will argue to convince the others to choose one of the possible alternatives. The arguments used to convince a specific participant are dependent on agent knowledge about that participant. This two-phase algorithm is applied iteratively.
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Introdução - A prevalência da doença pulmonar obstrutiva crónica (DPOC) apresenta valores muito heterogéneos em todo o mundo. A iniciativa Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) foi desenvolvida para que a prevalência da DPOC possa ser avaliada com metodologia uniformizada. O objetivo deste estudo foi estimar a prevalência da DPOC em adultos com 40 ou mais anos numa população alvo de 2 700 000 habitantes na região de Lisboa, de acordo com o protocolo BOLD. Métodos - A amostra foi estratificada de forma aleatória multifaseada selecionando-se 12 freguesias. O inquérito compreendia um questionário com informação sobre fatores de risco para a DPOC e doença respiratória autoreportada; adicionalmente, foi efetuada espirometria com prova de broncodilatação. Resultados - Foram incluídos 710 participantes com questionário e espirometria aceitáveis. A prevalência estimada da DPOC na população no estadio GOLD I+ foi de 14,2% (IC 95%: 11,1; 18,1) e de 7,3% no estadio ii+ (IC 95%: 4,7; 11,3). A prevalência não ajustada foi de 20,2% (IC 95%: 17,4; 23,3) no estadio i+ e de 9,5% (IC 95%: 7,6; 11,9) no estadio ii+. A prevalência da DPOC no estadio GOLD II+ aumentou com a idade, sendo mais elevada no sexo masculino. A prevalência estimada da DPOC no estadio GOLD I+ foi de 9,2% (IC 95%: 5,9; 14,0) nos não fumadores versus 27,4% (IC 95%: 18,5; 38,5) nos fumadores com carga tabágica de ≥ 20 Unidades Maço Ano. Detetou-se uma fraca concordância entre a referência a diagnóstico médico prévio e o diagnóstico espirométrico, com 86,8% de subdiagnósticos. Conclusões - O achado de uma prevalência estimada da DPOC de 14,2% sugere que esta é uma doença comum na região de Lisboa, contudo com uma elevada proporção de subdiagnósticos. Estes dados apontam para a necessidade de aumentar o grau de conhecimento dos profissionais de saúde sobre a DPOC, bem como a necessidade de maior utilização da espirometria nos cuidados de saúde primários.