Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Dapagliflozin add-on to metformin in type 2 diabetes inadequately controlled with metformin:a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled 102-week trial

Background: Management of type 2 diabetes with metformin often does not provide adequate glycemic control, thereby necessitating add-on treatment. In a 24-week clinical trial, dapagliflozin, an investigational sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, improved glycemic control in patients inadequately controlled with metformin. The present study is an extension that was undertaken to evaluate dapagliflozin as long-term therapy in this population.Methods: This was a long-term extension (total 102 weeks) of a 24-week phase 3, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, parallel-group trial. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to blinded daily treatment (placebo, or dapagliflozin 2.5 to 5, or 10 mg) plus open-label metformin (=1,500 mg). The previously published primary endpoint was change from baseline in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) at 24 weeks. This paper reports the follow-up to week 102, with analysis of covariance model performed at 24 weeks with last observation carried forward; a repeated measures analysis was utilized to evaluate changes from baseline in HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and weight.Results: A total of 546 patients were randomized to 1 of the 4 treatments. The completion rate for the 78-week double-blind extension period was lower for the placebo group (63.5%) than for the dapagliflozin groups (68.3% to 79.8%). At week 102, mean changes from baseline HbA1c (8.06%) were +0.02% for placebo compared with -0.48% (P = 0.0008), -0.58% (P

Monocyte urokinase-type plasminogen activator up-regulation reduces thrombus size in a model of venous thrombosis

Background - Our previous studies showed that the direct injection of an adenovirus construct expressing urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA) into experimental venous thrombi significantly reduces thrombus weight. The systemic use of adenovirus vectors is limited by inherent hepatic tropism and inflammatory response. As macrophages are recruited into venous thrombi, it is reasonable to speculate that these cells could be used to target the adenovirus uPA (ad-uPA) gene construct to the thrombus. The aims of this study were to determine whether macrophages transduced with ad-uPA have increased fibrinolytic activity and whether systemic injection of transduced cells could be used to target uPA expression to the thrombus and reduce its size. Methods - The effect of up-regulating uPA was examined in an immortalized macrophage cell line (MM6) and macrophages differentiated from human blood monocyte-derived macrophages (HBMMs). Cells were infected with ad-uPA or blank control virus (ad-blank). Fibrinolytic mediator expression, cell viability, and cytokine expression were measured by activity assays and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Monocyte migration was measured using a modified Boyden chamber assay. A model of venous thrombosis was developed and characterized in mice with severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID). This model was used to study whether systemically administered macrophages over-expressing uPA reduced thrombus size. Uptake of HBMMs into the thrombus induced in these mice was confirmed by a combination of PKH2-labeled cell tracking and colocalization with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) by immunohistology. Results - Compared with ad-blank, treated HBMMs transduction with ad-uPA increased uPA production by >1000-fold (P = .003), uPA activity by 150-fold (P = .0001), and soluble uPA receptor (uPAR) by almost twofold (P = .043). Expression of plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI-1) and PAI-2 was decreased by about twofold (P = .011) and threefold (P = .005), respectively. Up-regulation of uPA had no effect on cell viability or inflammatory cytokine production compared with ad-blank or untreated cells. Ad-uPA transduction increased the migration rate of HBMMs (about 20%, P = .03) and MM6 cells (>twofold, P = .005) compared with ad-blank treated controls. Human macrophage recruitment into the mouse thrombus was confirmed by the colocalization of HLA with the PKH2-marked cells. Systemic injection of uPA-up-regulated HBMMs reduced thrombus weight by approximately 20% compared with ad-blank (P = .038) or sham-treated controls (P = .0028). Conclusion - Transduction of HBBM with ad-uPA increases their fibrinolytic activity. Systemic administration of uPA up-regulated HBBMs reduced thrombus size in an experimental model of venous thrombosis. Alternative methods of delivering fibrinolytic agents are worth exploring.

The single-phase induction motor:a critical appraisal of the rotating-field and cross-field theories with particular reference to skin effect

The purpose of this thesis is twofold: to examine the validity of the rotating-field and cross-field theories of the single-phase induction motor when applied to a cage rotor machine; and to examine the extent to which skin effect is likely to modify the characteristics of a cage rotor machine. A mathematical analysis is presented for a single-phase induction motor in which the rotor parameters are modified by skin effect. Although this is based on the usual type of ideal machine, a new form of model rotor allows approximations for skin effect phenomena to be included as an integral part of the analysis. Performance equations appropriate to the rotating-field and cross-field theories are deduced, and the corresponding explanations for the steady-state mode of operation are critically examined. The evaluation of the winding currents and developed torque is simplified by the introduction of new dimensionless factors which are functions of the resistance/reactance ratios of the rotor and the speed. Tables of the factors are included for selected numerical values of the parameter ratios, and these are used to deduce typical operating characteristics for both cage and wound rotor machines. It is shown that a qualitative explanation of the mode of operation of a cage rotor machine is obtained from either theory; but the operating characteristics must be deduced from the performance equations of the rotating-field theory, because of the restrictions on the values of the rotor parameters imposed by skin effect.

A study of the behaviour of the single phase induction type energy meter and the design of an instrumentation system for its calibration

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Lattice approach to the dynamics of phase-coded soliton trains

We address the collective dynamics of a soliton train propagating in a medium described by the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Our approach uses the reduction of train dynamics to the discrete complex Toda chain (CTC) model for the evolution of parameters for each train constituent: such a simplification allows one to carry out an approximate analysis of the dynamics of positions and phases of individual interacting pulses. Here, we employ the CTC model to the problem which has relevance to the field of fibre optics communications where each binary digit of transmitted information is encoded via the phase difference between the two adjacent solitons. Our goal is to elucidate different scenarios of the train distortions and the subsequent information garbling caused solely by the intersoliton interactions. First, we examine how the structure of a given phase pattern affects the initial stage of the train dynamics and explain the general mechanisms for the appearance of unstable collective soliton modes. Then we further discuss the nonlinear regime concentrating on the dependence of the Lax scattering matrix on the input phase distribution; this allows one to classify typical features of the train evolution and determine the distance where the soliton escapes from its slot. In both cases, we demonstrate deep mathematical analogies with the classical theory of crystal lattice dynamics.

Anomalies in stiffness and damping of a 2D discrete viscoelastic system due to negative stiffness components

The recent development of using negative stiffness inclusions to achieve extreme overall stiffness and mechanical damping of composite materials reveals a new avenue for constructing high performance materials. One of the negative stiffness sources can be obtained from phase transforming materials in the vicinity of their phase transition, as suggested by the Landau theory. To understand the underlying mechanism from a microscopic viewpoint, we theoretically analyze a 2D, nested triangular lattice cell with pre-chosen elements containing negative stiffness to demonstrate anomalies in overall stiffness and damping. Combining with current knowledge from continuum models, based on the composite theory, such as the Voigt, Reuss, and Hashin-Shtrikman model, we further explore the stability of the system with Lyapunov's indirect stability theorem. The evolution of the microstructure in terms of the discrete system is discussed. A potential application of the results presented here is to develop special thin films with unusual in-plane mechanical properties. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modification of the B2-type matrix of aluminide diffusion coatings on nickel-base superalloys-bulk aluminide analogues

Pack aluminide coating is a useful method for conferring oxidation resistance on nickel-base superalloys. Nominally, these coatings have a matrix composed of a Ni-Al based B2-type phase (commonly denoted as Β). However, following high-temperature exposure in oxidative envi-ronments, aluminum is depleted from the coating. Aluminum depletion in turn, leads to de-stabilization of the Β phase, resulting in the formation of a characteristic lathlike Β-derivative microstructure. This article presents a transmission electron microscopy study of the formation of the lathlike Β-derivative microstructure using bulk nickel aluminides as model alloys. In the bulk nickel aluminides, the lathlike microstructure has been found to correspond to two distinct components: L10-type martensite and a new Β derivative. The new Β derivative is characterized and the conditions associated with the presence of this feature are identified and compared with those leading to the formation of the L10 martensitic phase. © 1995 The Minerals, Metals & Material Society.

A hierarchy of phase transitions in optimal neuronal coding:from binary to M-ary discrete optimal codes

We have investigated how optimal coding for neural systems changes with the time available for decoding. Optimization was in terms of maximizing information transmission. We have estimated the parameters for Poisson neurons that optimize Shannon transinformation with the assumption of rate coding. We observed a hierarchy of phase transitions from binary coding, for small decoding times, toward discrete (M-ary) coding with two, three and more quantization levels for larger decoding times. We postulate that the presence of subpopulations with specific neural characteristics could be a signiture of an optimal population coding scheme and we use the mammalian auditory system as an example.

Strong Consistency of the Conditional Least Squares Estimator for a Nonstationary Process. Example of the Garch Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary: 62M10, 62J02, 62F12, 62M05, 62P05, 62P10; secondary: 60G46, 60F15.

On the Busy Period in One Finite Queue of M/G/1 Type with Inactive Orbit

The paper deals with a single server finite queuing system where the customers, who failed to get service, are temporarily blocked in the orbit of inactive customers. This model and its variants have many applications, especially for optimization of the corresponding models with retrials. We analyze the system in non-stationary regime and, using the discrete transformations method study, the busy period length and the number of successful calls made during it. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.3, J.7.

Implementing an agent-based model with a spatial visual display in discrete-event simulation software

There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.

A diszkrét kiválasztási modell becslése Cox-regresszióval (Parameter estimation for multinomial discrete choice model using Cox-regression)

Considering the so-called "multinomial discrete choice" model the focus of this paper is on the estimation problem of the parameters. Especially, the basic question arises how to carry out the point and interval estimation of the parameters when the model is mixed i.e. includes both individual and choice-specific explanatory variables while a standard MDC computer program is not available for use. The basic idea behind the solution is the use of the Cox-proportional hazards method of survival analysis which is available in any standard statistical package and provided a data structure satisfying certain special requirements it yields the MDC solutions desired. The paper describes the features of the data set to be analysed.

Exotic meson decay widths using lattice quantum chromodynamics

Most experiments in particle physics are scattering experiments, the analysis of which leads to masses, scattering phases, decay widths and other properties of one or multi-particle systems. Until the advent of Lattice Quantum Chromodynamics (LQCD) it was difficult to compare experimental results on low energy hadron-hadron scattering processes to the predictions of QCD, the current theory of strong interactions. The reason being, at low energies the QCD coupling constant becomes large and the perturbation expansion for scattering; amplitudes does not converge. To overcome this, one puts the theory onto a lattice, imposes a momentum cutoff, and computes the integral numerically. For particle masses, predictions of LQCD agree with experiment, but the area of decay widths is largely unexplored. ^ LQCD provides ab initio access to unusual hadrons like exotic mesons that are predicted to contain real gluonic structure. To study decays of these type resonances the energy spectra of a two-particle decay state in a finite volume of dimension L can be related to the associated scattering phase shift δ(k) at momentum k through exact formulae derived by Lüscher. Because the spectra can be computed using numerical Monte Carlo techniques, the scattering phases can thus be determined using Lüscher's formulae, and the corresponding decay widths can be found by fitting Breit-Wigner functions. ^ Results of such a decay width calculation for an exotic hybrid( h) meson (JPC = 1-+) are presented for the decay channel h → πa 1. This calculation employed Lüscher's formulae and an approximation of LQCD called the quenched approximation. Energy spectra for the h and πa1 systems were extracted using eigenvalues of a correlation matrix, and the corresponding scattering phase shifts were determined for a discrete set of πa1 momenta. Although the number of phase shift data points was sparse, fits to a Breit-Wigner model were made, resulting in a decay width of about 60 MeV. ^

A non-linear discrete stochastic optimization model for Advanced Access patient appointment scheduling

Access to healthcare is a major problem in which patients are deprived of receiving timely admission to healthcare. Poor access has resulted in significant but avoidable healthcare cost, poor quality of healthcare, and deterioration in the general public health. Advanced Access is a simple and direct approach to appointment scheduling in which the majority of a clinic's appointments slots are kept open in order to provide access for immediate or same day healthcare needs and therefore, alleviate the problem of poor access the healthcare. This research formulates a non-linear discrete stochastic mathematical model of the Advanced Access appointment scheduling policy. The model objective is to maximize the expected profit of the clinic subject to constraints on minimum access to healthcare provided. Patient behavior is characterized with probabilities for no-show, balking, and related patient choices. Structural properties of the model are analyzed to determine whether Advanced Access patient scheduling is feasible. To solve the complex combinatorial optimization problem, a heuristic that combines greedy construction algorithm and neighborhood improvement search was developed. The model and the heuristic were used to evaluate the Advanced Access patient appointment policy compared to existing policies. Trade-off between profit and access to healthcare are established, and parameter analysis of input parameters was performed. The trade-off curve is a characteristic curve and was observed to be concave. This implies that there exists an access level at which at which the clinic can be operated at optimal profit that can be realized. The results also show that, in many scenarios by switching from existing scheduling policy to Advanced Access policy clinics can improve access without any decrease in profit. Further, the success of Advanced Access policy in providing improved access and/or profit depends on the expected value of demand, variation in demand, and the ratio of demand for same day and advanced appointments. The contributions of the dissertation are a model of Advanced Access patient scheduling, a heuristic to solve the model, and the use of the model to understand the scheduling policy trade-offs which healthcare clinic managers must make. ^