Estimation du degré de couverture d'un registre pour les cancers notifiés au décès [Evaluation of the comprehensiveness of a cancer register from death certificates].

The comparison of cancer prevalence with cancer mortality can lead under some hypotheses to an estimate of registration rate. A method is proposed, where the cases with cancer as a cause of death are divided into 3 categories: (1) cases already known by the registry (2) unknown cases having occured before the registry creation date (3) unknown cases occuring during the registry operates. The estimate is then the number of cases in the first category divided by the total of those in categories 1 and 3 (these only are to be registered). An application is performed on the data of the Canton de Vaud. Survival rates of the Norvegian Cancer Registry are used for computing the number of unknown cases to be included in second and third category, respectively. The discussion focusses on the possible determinants of the obtained comprehensiveness rates for various cancer sites.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Common Variants of TLR1 Associate with Organ Dysfunction and Sustained Pro- Inflammatory Responses during Sepsis

Background: Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are critical components for host pathogen recognition and variants in genes participating in this response influence susceptibility to infections. Recently, TLR1 gene polymorphisms have been found correlated with whole blood hyper-inflammatory responses to pathogen-associated molecules and associated with sepsis-associated multiorgan dysfunction and acute lung injury (ALI). We examined the association of common variants of TLR1 gene with sepsis-derived complications in an independent study and with serum levels for four inflammatory biomarker among septic patients. Methodology/Principal Findings: Seven tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms of the TLR1 gene were genotyped in samples from a prospective multicenter case-only study of patients with severe sepsis admitted into a network of intensive care units followed for disease severity. Interleukin (IL)-1 b, IL-6, IL-10, and C-reactive protein (CRP) serum levels were measured at study entry, at 48 h and at 7th day. Alleles -7202G and 248Ser, and the 248Ser-602Ile haplotype were associated with circulatory dysfunction among severe septic patients (0.001<=p <= 0.022), and with reduced IL-10 (0.012<= p <=0.047) and elevated CRP (0.011<= p <=0.036) serum levels during the first week of sepsis development. Additionally, the -7202GG genotype was found to be associated with hospital mortality (p =0.017) and ALI (p =0.050) in a combined analysis with European Americans, suggesting common risk effects among studies Conclusions/Significance: These results partially replicate and extend previous findings, supporting that variants of TLR1 gene are determinants of severe complications during sepsis.

Mortality risk associated with underweight : a census-linked cohort of 31,578 individuals with up to 32 years of follow-up

BACKGROUND: In contrast to obesity, information on the health risks of underweight is sparse. We examined the long-term association between underweight and mortality by considering factors possibly influencing this relationship. METHODS: We included 31,578 individuals aged 25-74 years, who participated in population based health studies between 1977 and 1993 and were followed-up for survival until 2008 by record linkage with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated from measured (53% of study population) or self-reported height and weight. Underweight was defined as BMI < 18.5 kg/m2. Cox regression models were used to determine mortality Hazard Ratios (HR) of underweight vs. normal weight (BMI 18.5- < 25.0 kg/m2). Covariates were study, sex, smoking, healthy eating proxy, sports frequency, and educational level. RESULTS: Underweight individuals represented 3.0% of the total study population (n = 945), and were mostly women (89.9%). Compared to normal weight, underweight was associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.14-1.65). Increased risk was apparent in both sexes, regardless of smoking status, and mainly driven by excess death from external causes (HR: 3.18; 1.96-5.17), but not cancer, cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. The HR were 1.16 (0.88-1.53) in studies with measured BMI and 1.59 (1.24-2.05) with self-reported BMI. CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk of dying of underweight people was mainly due to an increased mortality risk from external causes. Using self-reported BMI may lead to an overestimation of mortality risk associated with underweight.

Do standard burn mortality formulae work on a population of severely burned children and adults?

Accurate prediction of mortality following burns is useful as an audit tool, and for providing treatment plan and resource allocation criteria. Common burn formulae (Ryan Score, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), classic and revised Baux) have not been compared with the standard Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII) or re-validated in a severely (≥20% total burn surface area) burned population. Furthermore, the revised Baux (R-Baux) has been externally validated thoroughly only once and the pediatric Baux (P-Baux) has yet to be. Using 522 severely burned patients, we show that burn formulae (ABSI, Baux, revised Baux) outperform APACHEII among adults (AUROC increase p<0.001 adults; p>0.5 children). The Ryan Score performs well especially among the most at-risk populations (estimated mortality [90% CI] original versus current study: 33% [26-41%] versus 30.18% [24.25-36.86%] for Ryan Score 2; 87% [78-93%] versus 66.48% [51.31-78.87%] for Ryan Score 3). The R-Baux shows accurate discrimination (AUROC 0.908 [0.869-0.947]) and is well-calibrated. However, the ABSI and P-Baux, although showing high measures of discrimination (AUROC 0.826 [0.737-0.916] and 0.848 [0.758-0.938]) in children), exceedingly overestimates mortality, indicating poor calibration. We highlight challenges in designing and employing scores that are applicable to a wide range of populations.

The biological embedding of social differences in ageing trajectories.

The occurrence of adult disease is related to lifetime experiences and, at least in part, to early life events. It is now well established that socioeconomic circumstances across the lifetime are major determinants of adult health and disease, and the current economic crisis is amplifying susceptibility to disease and unhealthy ageing in disadvantaged subgroups of the population. In adulthood, the gap between social groups is extensive in terms of mortality, functional performances and cognitive capacity. Since the occurrence of adult disease is related to lifetime experiences, including early life exposures, late-life preventive efforts may be of limited efficacy, particularly in disadvantaged subgroups. We now have the analytical tools to understand mechanisms that underlie life-long susceptibility to unhealthy ageing, and new knowledge can lead to better and more effective mechanisms to prevent diseases and reduce health inequalities. In this perspective, we first discuss the impact of recent changes in the understanding of chronic disease aetiology on our interpretation of the influence of life-course socioeconomic status (SES) on health and ageing. We then propose a model for integrating the exposome concept (the myriad of exposures derived from exogenous and endogenous sources) into the analysis of life-course socioeconomic differentials in ageing.

Social differences in avoidable mortality between small areas of 15 European cities: an ecological study

Health and inequalities in health among inhabitants of European cities are of major importance for European public health and there is great interest in how different health care systems in Europe perform in the reduction of health inequalities. However, evidence on the spatial distribution of cause-specific mortality across neighbourhoods of European cities is scarce. This study presents maps of avoidable mortality in European cities and analyses differences in avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods with different levels of deprivation. Methods: We determined the level of mortality from 14 avoidable causes of death for each neighbourhood of 15 large cities in different European regions. To address the problems associated with Standardised Mortality Ratios for small areas we smooth them using the Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Ecological regression analysis was used to assess the association between social deprivation and mortality. Results: Mortality from avoidable causes of death is higher in deprived neighbourhoods and mortality rate ratios between areas with different levels of deprivation differ between gender and cities. In most cases rate ratios are lower among women. While Eastern and Southern European cities show higher levels of avoidable mortality, the association of mortality with social deprivation tends to be higher in Northern and lower in Southern Europe. Conclusions: There are marked differences in the level of avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods of European cities and the level of avoidable mortality is associated with social deprivation. There is no systematic difference in the magnitude of this association between European cities or regions. Spatial patterns of avoidable mortality across small city areas can point to possible local problems and specific strategies to reduce health inequality which is important for the development of urban areas and the well-being of their inhabitants

Fractures of the proximal femur: correlation with vitamin D receptor gene polymorphism

Fractures are the feared consequences of osteoporosis and fractures of the proximal femur (FPF) are those that involve the highest morbidity and mortality. Thus far, evaluation of bone mineral density (BMD) is the best way to determine the risk of fracture. Genetic inheritance, in turn, is one of the major determinants of BMD. A correlation between different genotypes of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) and BMD has been recently reported. On this basis, we decided to determine the importance of the determination of VDR genotype in the presence of an osteoporotic FPF in a Brazilian population. We studied three groups: group I consisted of 73 elderly subjects older than 65 years (78.5 ± 7.2 years) hospitalized for nonpathological FPF; group II consisted of 50 individuals older than 65 years (72.9 ± 5.2 years) without FPF and group III consisted of 98 young normal Brazilian individuals aged 32.6 ± 6.6 years (mean ± SD). Analysis of VDR gene polymorphism by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) was performed by PCR amplification followed by BsmI digestion of DNA isolated from peripheral leukocytes. The genotype distribution in group I was 20.5% BB, 42.5% Bb and 37% bb and did not differ significantly from the values obtained for group II (16% BB, 36% Bb and 48% bb) or for group III (10.2% BB, 47.6% Bb and 41.8% bb). No differences in genotype distribution were observed between sexes or between the young and elderly groups. We conclude that determination of VDR polymorphism is of no practical use for the prediction of FPF. Other nongenetic factors probably start to affect bone mass, the risk to fall and consequently the occurrence of osteoporotic fractures with advancing age.