Metodologia para a implementação de um sistema de apoio à decisão no sistema nacional de saúde baseado nos indicadores para a saúde

Actualmente, o SIS depara-se com problemas relativos à normalização e qualidade de dados, interoperabilidade entre instituições e inexistência de sistemas que suportem e agilizem o processo da decisão estratégica no sector. Numa primeira fase, este trabalho caracteriza e clarifica o papel das diversas instituições que colaboram com o MS, a forma como é gerida a informação e o conhecimento e os pressupostos do PNS enquanto documento agregador de indicadores que permitem avaliar o estado da saúde em Portugal. Com base na caracterização do sector e na importância orientadora do PNS, apresenta-se uma metodologia que organiza e desenvolve um modelo de metadados, baseados nos indicadores para a saúde, presentes no PNS. A sua importância para o sector é evidente uma vez que permite servir de suporte ao futuro desenvolvimento de aplicações estratégicas de apoio à decisão, salvaguardando a implementação e a divulgação do PNS e dos seus indicadores. ABSTRACT; Currently, the SIS comes across with problems related with normalization and quality of data, cooperation between institutions and the inexistence of systems that support and speed the process of strategical decisions in the sector. ln a first phase, this work characterizes and simplifies the role of each institution that collaborates with MS, the form as it is managed the information and the knowledge and the fundamentals of PNS, as a document witch aggregates pointers that allow the evaluation of the state of health in Portugal. On the basis of this characterization and the orienting importance of PNS, this work demonstrates a metadata methodology that organizes and develops a model, based on health pointers, indicated in PNS. Its importance for the sector is evident because it can support future developments of strategical applications, safeguarding the implementation and the analysis of PNS and its pointers.

Modeling height-diameter relationship in pinus pinaster ait. in the forest intervention zone of Lomba, NE-Portugal

In this work, the relationship between diameter at breast height (d) and total height (h) of individual-tree was modeled with the aim to establish provisory height-diameter (h-d) equations for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in the Lomba ZIF, Northeast Portugal. Using data collected locally, several local and generalized h-d equations from the literature were tested and adaptations were also considered. Model fitting was conducted by using usual nonlinear least squares (nls) methods. The best local and generalized models selected, were also tested as mixed models applying a first-order conditional expectation (FOCE) approximation procedure and maximum likelihood methods to estimate fixed and random effects. For the calibration of the mixed models and in order to be consistent with the fitting procedure, the FOCE method was also used to test different sampling designs. The results showed that the local h-d equations with two parameters performed better than the analogous models with three parameters. However a unique set of parameter values for the local model can not be used to all maritime pine stands in Lomba ZIF and thus, a generalized model including covariates from the stand, in addition to d, was necessary to obtain an adequate predictive performance. No evident superiority of the generalized mixed model in comparison to the generalized model with nonlinear least squares parameters estimates was observed. On the other hand, in the case of the local model, the predictive performance greatly improved when random effects were included. The results showed that the mixed model based in the local h-d equation selected is a viable alternative for estimating h if variables from the stand are not available. Moreover, it was observed that it is possible to obtain an adequate calibrated response using only 2 to 5 additional h-d measurements in quantile (or random) trees from the distribution of d in the plot (stand). Balancing sampling effort, accuracy and straightforwardness in practical applications, the generalized model from nls fit is recommended. Examples of applications of the selected generalized equation to the forest management are presented, namely how to use it to complete missing information from forest inventory and also showing how such an equation can be incorporated in a stand-level decision support system that aims to optimize the forest management for the maximization of wood volume production in Lomba ZIF maritime pine stands.

Abordagem rítmica probabilística aplicada em análises de fluxo e estabilidade de taludes

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geotecnia, 2015.

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Reasoning over knowledge-based generation of situations in context spaces to reduce food waste

With the ever-growing amount of connected sensors (IoT), making sense of sensed data becomes even more important. Pervasive computing is a key enabler for sustainable solutions, prominent examples are smart energy systems and decision support systems. A key feature of pervasive systems is situation awareness which allows a system to thoroughly understand its environment. It is based on external interpretation of data and thus relies on expert knowledge. Due to the distinct nature of situations in different domains and applications, the development of situation aware applications remains a complex process. This thesis is concerned with a general framework for situation awareness which simplifies the development of applications. It is based on the Situation Theory Ontology to provide a foundation for situation modelling which allows knowledge reuse. Concepts of the Situation Theory are mapped to the Context Space Theory which is used for situation reasoning. Situation Spaces in the Context Space are automatically generated with the defined knowledge. For the acquisition of sensor data, the IoT standards O-MI/O-DF are integrated into the framework. These allow a peer-to-peer data exchange between data publisher and the proposed framework and thus a platform independent subscription to sensed data. The framework is then applied for a use case to reduce food waste. The use case validates the applicability of the framework and furthermore serves as a showcase for a pervasive system contributing to the sustainability goals. Leading institutions, e.g. the United Nations, stress the need for a more resource efficient society and acknowledge the capability of ICT systems. The use case scenario is based on a smart neighbourhood in which the system recommends the most efficient use of food items through situation awareness to reduce food waste at consumption stage.

Does spatial distribution of fauna depend on algal belts on intertidal boulder fields of the French Basque coast ?

To determine good ecological status and conservation of the Sub-Marine area of the Bay of Biscay, the implementation of a new rocky intertidal habitats monitoring is needed. A protocol has been adapted from the Brittany protocol for the water body FRFC11 "Basque coast" for the two indicators "intertidal macroalgae" and "subtidal macroalgae" under the Water Framework Directive to qualify the ecological. However no protocol has been validated for fauna in front of meridional characters of the benthic communities. Investigations carried out on macroalgae communities on intertidal area in WFD framework, since 2008, constitute an important working basis. This is the aim of the Bigorno project (Intertidal Biodiversity of the south of the Bay of Biscay and Observation for New search and Monitoring for decision support), financed by the Agency of Marine Protected Areas and the Departmental Council. To implement knowledge, a sampling protocol has been used in 2015 on the boulder fields of Guéthary. This site is part of Natura 2000 area "rocky Basque coast and offshore extension "It constitutes also a Znieff site and restricted fishing area. The sampling strategy considers the heterogeneity of substrates and the presence of intertidal microhabitats. Two main habitats are present: "mediolittoral rock in exposed area habitat" and "boulder fields". Habitat "intertidal pools and permanent ponds" is also present but, it is not investigated. Sampling effort is of 353 quadrats of 0.1 m², drawn randomly according to a spatially stratified sampling plan, defined by habitat and algal belts. Taxa identification and enumeration are done on each quadrat. The objective of this work is to expose results from data collected during 2015 sampling program. The importance of characterizing benthic fauna communities spatial distribution belonging to the Basque coast according to algal belts defines during the WDF survey was highlighted. Concurrently, indicators of biodiversity were studied.

Indicator species of intertidal boulder fields on the French Basque coast

The rocky Basque coast presents an interest both in terms of biogeography and its patrimonial situation, alongside its habitats, fauna and flora. The aim of the BIGORNO project (Intertidal Biodiversity of the south of the Bay of Biscay and Observation for New research and Monitoring for decision support), financed by the Agency of Marine Protected Areas (AAMP) and the Departmental Council (CD 64), is to respond to significant deficiencies on biocenosis in the southern marine subregion “Bay of Biscay”. Investigations carried out in the WFD, since 2008, constitute an important basis of work for integration of fauna. Field studies undertaken since 2015 consisting of a sampling design suited to the substrates heterogeneity and the presence of microhabitats were established on an intertidal area specifically on a "Boulder fields" habitat. Assessment was undertaken by sampling quadrats of 0.1 m² drawn randomly from a spatially stratified sampling plan. Our study aims for a better understanding of stratification of this habitat and allowed us to highligh tindicator taxa of the "Boulder fields" habitat. Functions included in the package indicspecies (CRAN) were used to conduct indicator species analysis and to assess the significance of the relationship between taxa or taxa combinations and the habitat. It is therefore possible to describe some species or species groups which are specific to boulder fields through the assessment of their functional traits and local biodiversity. These various analyses allow for a sustainable way of monitoring the Basque intertidal rocky shore.

Software de apoyo a la decisión para el establecimiento de pautas correctoras de vacunación

En la actualidad, cualquier ámbito profesional cuenta con herramientas software especializadas que mejoran la productividad en la realización de tareas repetitivas o facilitan la ejecución de tareas críticas con un alto grado de especialización. Entre estos sistemas software especializados se encuentran las herramientas informáticas que sirven de apoyo a la toma de decisiones, a veces basadas en sistemas expertos, que pueden alcanzar un grado de eficiencia y exactitud incomparables con procesos de elaboración artesanal. En este proyecto se detalla la creación de un sistema de ayuda a la toma de decisión clínica para la elaboración de pautas vacunales aceleradas en personas que no se encuentran correctamente vacunadas según su calendario de vacunación. Esta herramienta se sirve de una serie de algoritmos, extraídos de conocimiento experto y encargados de calcular un calendario de vacunación acelerado a medida del paciente, según su edad, género y dosis previamente administradas. Estos algoritmos son totalmente configurables y pueden ser adaptados a cualquier tipo de calendario vacunal y vacunas que formen parte de él. La herramienta software desarrollada en este trabajo pretende dar servicios a dos tipos de usuario. Los usuarios con perfil enfermero podrán acceder a la herramienta para la elaboración de pautas de vacunación acelerada. Los usuarios con perfil administrador podrán definir para cada una de las vacunas dadas de alta en el sistema los algoritmos de pautas de vacunación aceleradas según la edad del paciente y las dosis previamente recibidas dentro de cada rango temporal. El objetivo principal del proyecto consiste en contribuir, mediante un software de ayuda a la toma de decisión, a reducir el índice de error humano en el diseño de pautas de corrección vacunales, suministrando para ello unas pautas exactas y adecuadas a las circunstancias del paciente y su historia vacunal previa.

Infomobility for “Car-Driver” Systems: Reference Model and Case Study

Part 21: Mobility and Logistics

Sistema fuzzy para estimativa do bem-estar de matrizes pesadas

Entender o comportamento e suas pequenas variações decorrentes das mudanças do ambiente térmico e desenvolver modelos que simulem o bem-estar a partir de respostas das aves ao ambiente constituem o primeiro passo para a criação de um sistema de monitoramento digital de aves em galpões de produção. Neste trabalho, foi desenvolvido um sistema de suporte à decisão com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy para a estimativa do bem-estar de matrizes pesadas em função de frequências e duração dos comportamentos expressos pelas aves. O desenvolvimento do sistema passou por cinco etapas distintas: 1) organização dos dados experimentais; 2) apresentação dos vídeos em entrevista com especialista; 3) criação das funções de pertinência com base nas entrevistas e na revisão da literatura; 4) simulação de frequências de ocorrências e tempos médios de expressão dos comportamentos classificados como indicadores de bem-estar utilizando equações de regressão obtidas na literatura, e 5) construção das regras, simulação e validação do sistema. O sistema fuzzy desenvolvido estimou satisfatoriamente o bem-estar de matrizes pesadas, tendo na sua última versão, com maior número de regras, acertado 77,8% dos dados experimentais, comparados com as respostas esperadas por um especialista. O sistema pode ser utilizado como instrumento matemático-computacional para apoiar decisões em galpões de produção de matrizes pesadas.

Comparison of the traditional pharmaceutical validation method versus an assisted pharmaceutical validation in hospitalized patients

Objective: To analyze pharmaceutical interventions that have been carried out with the support of an automated system for validation of treatments vs. the traditional method without computer support. Method: The automated program, ALTOMEDICAMENTOS® version 0, has 925 052 data with information regarding approximately 20 000 medicines, analyzing doses, administration routes, number of days with such a treatment, dosing in renal and liver failure, interactions control, similar drugs, and enteral medicines. During eight days, in four different hospitals (high complexity with over 1 000 beds, 400-bed intermediate, geriatric and monographic), the same patients and treatments were analyzed using both systems. Results: 3,490 patients were analyzed, with 42 155 different treatments. 238 interventions were performed using the traditional system (interventions 0.56% / possible interventions) vs. 580 (1.38%) with the automated one. Very significant pharmaceutical interventions were 0.14% vs. 0.46%; significant was 0.38% vs. 0.90%; non-significant was 0.05% vs. 0.01%, respectively. If both systems are simultaneously used, interventions are performed in 1.85% vs. 0.56% with just the traditional system. Using only the traditional model, 30.5% of the possible interventions are detected, whereas without manual review and only the automated one, 84% of the possible interventions are detected. Conclusions: The automated system increases pharmaceutical interventions between 2.43 to 3.64 times. According to the results of this study the traditional validation system needs to be revised relying on automated systems. The automated program works correctly in different hospitals.

A Metamodel for Collaboration Formalization

Part 11: Reference and Conceptual Models

Development of a cargo screening process simulator: a first approach

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is largely unknown as few benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturers provide benchmarks for individual sensors but we found no benchmarks that take a holistic view of the overall screening procedures and no benchmarks that take operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. Our aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximise detection rates. In this paper we present our ideas for developing such a system and highlight the research challenges we have identified. Then we introduce our first case study and report on the progress we have made so far.

Modelling and analysing cargo screening processes: a project outline

The efficiency of current cargo screening processes at sea and air ports is unknown as no benchmarks exists against which they could be measured. Some manufacturer benchmarks exist for individual sensors but we have not found any benchmarks that take a holistic view of the screening procedures assessing a combination of sensors and also taking operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. For such systems more advanced assessment methods need to be used, taking into account that the cargo screening process is of a dynamic and stochastic nature. Our project aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximize detection rates. In this paper we present a project outline and highlight the research challenges we have identified so far. In addition we introduce our first case study, where we investigate the cargo screening process at the ferry port in Calais.

O SIVICC como um sistema dissuasor da ilicitude e de apoio à atividade operacional da GNR

O objeto de estudo da presente investigação é o SIVICC. Sendo o objetivo geral demonstrar o seu desempenho organizacional nos domínios da dissuasão da ilicitude, do apoio à decisão e do suporte à atividade operacional da GNR, procurando adicionar e aprofundar conhecimento teórico e empírico. Em termos de metodologia optámos por uma estratégia de investigação qualitativa e relativamente ao desenho da pesquisa optou-se pela transversal. Os métodos e técnicas utilizadas foram as entrevistas semiestruturadas com a respetiva análise de conteúdo e a análise documental. Como resultado principal destacamos que, com base numa doutrina assente em princípios centrados em rede e no empirismo resultante das entrevistas efetuadas, o SIVICC proporciona superioridade de informação resultando numa consciência situacional partilhada da organização, o que conduz a melhores efeitos operacionais, que contribuem na prossecução da segurança de Portugal e da UE, através de uma efetiva vigilância diária e controlo do mar territorial e zona costeira. Concluímos que o SIVICC promove um apoio importante na tomada de decisão e suporta eficazmente e eficientemente a atividade operacional da GNR, que se vai refletir numa vantagem competitiva sobre o adversário que é persuadido a mudar os seus comportamentos através da dissuasão que o sistema proporciona. Abstract: The study object of this research is the SIVICC. The overall goal is to prove their organizational performance in the areas of deterrence of unlawful, in decision support and in supporting the operational activities of the GNR, attempting to add and deepen theoretical and empirical knowledge. In terms of methodology we chose a qualitative research strategy and for the design of research we chose the transversal. The methods and techniques used were semi-structured interviews with the respective content analysis and document analysis. The main result we highlight, based on a doctrine sustained on principles of centered network operations and a result empiricism of conducted interviews, that the SIVICC provides information superiority resulting in a shared situational awareness of the organization, leading to better operational effects that contribute to the pursuit security in Portugal and in the EU, through effective daily monitoring and control of the territorial sea and coastal zone. We conclude that the SIVICC promotes an important support decision making and supports effectively and efficiently operational activity of the GNR, which will reflect a competitive advantage over the adversary who is persuaded to change their behavior through deterrence that the system provides.