Global carbon budget 2014

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (E-FF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S-OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), E-FF was 8.9 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), E-LUC 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) 4.3 +/- 0.1 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN 2.6 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND 2.9 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1). For year 2013 alone, E-FF grew to 9.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), G(ATM) was 5.4 +/- 0.2 GtC yr(-1), S-OCEAN was 2.9 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.5 +/- 0.9 GtC yr(-1). G(ATM) was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E-FF and smaller and opposite changes between S-OCEAN and S-LAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 +/- 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E-FF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 +/- 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 +/- 2.2 GtCO(2) yr(-1)), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of E-FF and assumed constant E-LUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 +/- 55 GtC (2000 +/- 200 GtCO(2)) for 1870-2014, about 75% from E-FF and 25% from E-LUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quere et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Biomonitoring of air pollutants by using lichens (Evernia prunastri) in areas between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities in Morocco.

In this study, Evernia prunastri, a lichen growing in its natural habitat in Morocco was analysed for the concentration of five heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu and Cr) from eleven sites between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities. The control site was Dar Essalam, an isolated area with low traffic density and dense vegetation. In the investigated areas, the concentration of heavy metals was correlated with vehicular traffic, industrial activity and urbanization. The total metal concentration was highest in Sidi Yahya, followed by Mohammedia and Bouznika. The coefficient of variation was higher for Pb and lower for Cu, Zn and Fe. The concentrations of most heavy metals in the thalli differed significantly between sites (p<0.01). Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a significant correlation between heavy metal accumulation and atmospheric purity index. This study demonstrated also that the factors most strongly affecting the lichen flora were traffic density, the petroleum industry and paper factories in these areas. Overall, these results suggest that the index of atmospheric purity and assessment of heavy metals in lichen thalli are good indicators of the air quality at the studied sites.

Control estructural de agrietamientos poligonales en la Pedriza del Manzanares (Madrid)

Los agrietamientos poligonales representan una forma común de modelado granítico cuyo origen y evolución continúa en fase de estudio, no existiendo una sistematización de estas estructuras diversas. Algunos autores explican su origen por procesos geodinámicos internos, relacionándolo con movimientos de planos de fractura en estados tardíos de consolidación magmática. Otros autores atribuyen su formación y desarrollo a factores externos relacionados con el régimen climático. La gran variedad de agrietamientos poligonales requiere la utilización de un número mayor de variables para definir los distintos orígenes, y las posibles interrelaciones entre los factores externos e internos, así como para explicar la evolución de dichas estructuras y avanzar en la clasificación de los patrones concretos. Este trabajo pretende contribuir a sistematizar los mecanismos que intervienen en el desarrollo de agrietamientos poligonales. Para ello se estudian únicamente agrietamientos poligonales formados sobre planos de fractura verticales o subverticales. En particular se establecen relaciones entre la presencia de agrietamientos poligonales y la red de fracturación, la altura de aparición, la orientación e inclinación de la pared, la morfología de las placas y la profundidad de incisión de las grietas perimetrales. Por otra parte, establece relaciones entre procesos geodinámicos internos y procesos de meteorización externos.

The spectrum of endogenous human chromogranin A-derived peptides identified using a modified proteomic strategy.

The hypothesis that chromogranin A (CgA), a protein of neuroendocrine cell secretory granules, may be a precursor of biologically active peptides, rests on observed activities of peptide fragments largely produced by exogenous protease digestion of the bovine protein. Here we have adopted a modified proteomic strategy to isolate and characterise human CgA-derived peptides produced by endogenous prohormone convertases. Initial focus was on an insulinoma as previous studies have shown that CgA is rapidly processed in pancreatic beta cells and that tumours arising from these express appropriate prohormone convertases. Eleven novel peptides were identified arising from processing at both monobasic and dibasic sites and processing was most evident in the C-terminal domain of the protein. Some of these peptides were identified in endocrine tumours, such as mid-gut carcinoid and phaeochromocytoma, which arise from endocrine cells of different phenotype and in different anatomical sites. Two of the most interesting peptides, GR-44 and ER-37, representing the C-terminal region of CgA, were found to be amidated. These data would imply that the intact protein is C-terminally amidated and that these peptides are probably biologically active. The spectrum of novel CgA-derived peptides, described in the present study, should provide a basis for biological evaluation of authentic entities.

Characterization of Glucocorticoid Receptor Promoter Methylation in Breast Cancer

Epidemiological studies have identified psychological stress as a significant risk factor in breast cancer. The stress response is regulated by the HPA axis in the brain and is mediated by glucocorticoid receptor (GR) signalling. It has been found that early life events can affect epigenetic programming of GR, and methylation of the GR promoter has been reported in colorectal tumourigenesis. Decreased GR expression has also been observed in breast cancer. In addition, it has been previously demonstrated that unliganded GR can serve as a direct activator of the BRCA1 promoter in mammary epithelial cells. We propose a model whereby methylation of the GR promoter in the breast significantly lowers GR expression, resulting in insufficient BRCA1 promoter activation and an increased risk of developing cancer. Antibody-based methylated DNA enrichment was followed by qPCR analysis (MeDIP-qPCR) in a novel assay developed to detect locus-specific methylation levels. It was found that 13% of primary breast tumours were hypermethylated at the GR proximal promoter whereas no methylation was detected in normal tissue. RT-PCR and 5’ RACE analysis identified exon 1B as the predominant alternative first exon in the breast. Tumours methylated near exon 1B had decreased GR expression compared to unmethylated samples, suggesting that this region is important for transcriptional regulation of GR. It was also determined that GR and BRCA1 expression was decreased in breast tumour compared to normal tissue. Furthermore, the relative expression of GR and BRCA1 measured by qRT-PCR was correlated in normal tissue but this association was not found in tumour tissue. From this, it appears that lower GR levels with associated decreased BRCA1 expression in tissues may be a predisposing factor for breast cancer. Based on these results we propose a role for GR as a potential tumour suppressor gene in the breast due to its association with BRCA1, also a tumour suppressor gene, as well as its consistently decreased expression in breast tumours and methylation of its proximal promoter in a subset of cancer patients.

Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part I: Modeling Auto- and Cross-Correlation

The work in this paper is of particular significance since it considers the problem of modelling cross- and auto-correlation in statistical process monitoring. The presence of both types of correlation can lead to fault insensitivity or false alarms, although in published literature to date, only autocorrelation has been broadly considered. The proposed method, which uses a Kalman innovation model, effectively removes both correlations. The paper (and Part 2 [2]) has emerged from work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 and is of direct relevance to problems in several application areas including chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring.

Statistical Monitoring of Dynamic Multivariate Processes: Part II: Identifying Fault Magnitude and Signature

This paper builds on work presented in the first paper, Part 1 [1] and is of equal significance. The paper proposes a novel compensation method to preserve the integrity of step-fault signatures prevalent in various processes that can be masked during the removal of both auto- and cross correlation. Using industrial data, the paper demonstrates the benefit of the proposed method, which is applicable to chemical, electrical, and mechanical process monitoring. This paper, (and Part 1 [1]), has led to further work supported by EPSRC grant GR/S84354/01 involving kernel PCA methods.

The Galactic metallicity gradient

We have previously published intermediate to hi,oh resolution spectroscopic observations of approximately 80 early B-type main-sequence stars situated in 19 Galactic open clusters/associations with Galactocentric distances distributed over 6 less than or equal to R-g less than or equal to 18 kpc. This current study collates and re-analyses these equivalent- width datasets using LTE and non-LTE model atmosphere techniques, in order to determine the stellar atmospheric parameters and abundance estimates for C, N, O, Mg, Al and Si. The latter should be representative of the present-day Galactic interstellar medium. Our extensive observational dataset permits the identification of sub-samples of stars with similar atmospheric parameters and of homogeneous subsets of lines. As such, this investigation represents the most extensive and systematic study of its kind to date. We conclude that the distribution of light elements (CI O, Mg & Si) in the Galactic disk can be represented by a linear, radial gradient of -0.07 +/- 0.01 dex kpc(-1) Our results for nitrogen and oxygen viz. (-0.09 +/- 0.01 dex kpc(-1) and -0.067 +/- 0.008 dex kpc(-1)) are in excellent agreement with that found from the study of HII regions. We have also examined our datasets for evidence of an abrupt discontinuity in the metallicity of the Galactic disk near a Galactocentric distance of 10 kpc (see Twarog et al. 1997). However, there is no evidence to suggest that our data would be better fitted with a two-zone model. Moreover, we observe a N/O gradient of -0.04 +/- 0.02 dex kpc(-1) which is consistent with that found for other spiral galaxies (Vila- Costas gr Edmunds 1993).

Evaluation of predicted network modules in yeast metabolism using NMR-based metabolite profiling

Genome-scale metabolic models promise important insights into cell function. However, the definition of pathways and functional network modules within these models, and in the biochemical literature in general, is often based on intuitive reasoning. Although mathematical methods have been proposed to identify modules, which are defined as groups of reactions with correlated fluxes, there is a need for experimental verification. We show here that multivariate statistical analysis of the NMR-derived intra- and extracellular metabolite profiles of single-gene deletion mutants in specific metabolic pathways in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae identified outliers whose profiles were markedly different from those of the other mutants in their respective pathways. Application of flux coupling analysis to a metabolic model of this yeast showed that the deleted gene in an outlying mutant encoded an enzyme that was not part of the same functional network module as the other enzymes in the pathway. We suggest that metabolomic methods such as this, which do not require any knowledge of how a gene deletion might perturb the metabolic network, provide an empirical method for validating and ultimately refining the predicted network structure.

Funciones de la fotografía en las relaciones interculturales entre familias inmigrantes

En este artículo presentamos los resultados y el análisis de uno de los objetivos del proyecto I+D+i aprobado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad de España titulado Mediaciones audiovisuales en las relaciones entre escuela y familias inmigrantes. Concretamente, el dirigido a conocer las funciones que tienen las imágenes fotográficas en las relaciones de un grupo de padres inmigrantes en el colegio al que asisten sus hijos e hijas. Los datos presentados corresponden a las narraciones biográfico-culturales y visuales iniciadas en las aulas por estas familias junto a la tutora del grupo, y continuadas en sus contextos personal y social. Concluimos que las fotografías en los relatos han tenido las funciones de: fuente de información, soporte de análisis, reflexión y debate y, finalmente, medio para comunicar el conocimiento experiencial generado. Dentro de esta última, se han utilizado tres procedimientos que hemos denominado: denotativo autorreferencial, connotativo texto-visual y secuencial.