Does Regulation matter? Institutional dimension of the 2008 financial crisis

Why did house prices fall in 2007‐2009? This is the fundamental question to most Americans, and to those who lent them money. Most homeowners did not care why residential real estate prices rose. They assumed prices always rose, and they should simply enjoy their good fortune. It was not until prices began to fall that people were left searching for answers. How much did regulation or lack thereof play in the role of the devastation? To what degree did greed and unrealistic consumer expectation have on the real estate bubble? Using existing literature as well as face to face interviews of experienced leaders within the real estate industry in California who experienced both the up and down of the real estate cycle, the overarching purpose of this study is to investigate the opinions and beliefs of the leaders and drivers within the real estate industry about the cause of the real estate bubble that occurred sharply in 2008 . Specifically, this project will focus on the opinions of real estate industry leaders who worked in the center of the subprime universe located in Irvine, California, during 2004‐2008. Comparing the mainstream beliefs with the interviewees it is fair to say that the main finding in the mainstream beliefs are reflected very well with the finding of the subject’s opinion. The thesis is divided into 6 chapters starting with “introduction”, followed by chapter 2 “Literature Review”. Chapter 3 is “Research Methodology” followed by chapter 4 “Data Presentation”. Finally, the results are discussed in chapter 5 “Analysis and Discussion” and conclusions in Chapter 6.

Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007

Includes bibliography

A preliminary assessment of the policies implemented by the governments of Latin America and the Caribbean in response to the crisis - May 2010 Meeting

Includes bibliography

México: evolución económica durante 2007 y perspectivas para 2008

Incluye Bibliografía

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Numer and type of seeds introduced by footwear of travelers to Svalbard and germination success in 2008

Expanding visitation to Polar regions combined with climate warming increases the potential for alien species introduction and establishment. We quantified vascular plant propagule pressure associated with different groups of travelers to the high-Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, and evaluated the potential of introduced seeds to germinate under the most favorable average Svalbard soil temperature (10°C). We sampled the footwear of 259 travelers arriving by air to Svalbard during the summer of 2008, recording 1,019 seeds: a mean of 3.9 (±0.8) seeds per traveler. Assuming the seed influx is representative for the whole year, we estimate a yearly seed load of around 270,000 by this vector alone. Seeds of 53 species were identified from 17 families, with Poaceae having both highest diversity and number of seeds. Eight of the families identified are among those most invasive worldwide, while the majority of the species identified were non-native to Svalbard. The number of seeds was highest on footwear that had been used in forested and alpine areas in the 3 months prior to traveling to Svalbard, and increased with the amount of soil affixed to footwear. In total, 26% of the collected seeds germinated under simulated Svalbard conditions. Our results demonstrate high propagule transport through aviation to highly visited cold-climate regions and isolated islands is occurring. Alien species establishment is expected to increase with climate change, particularly in high latitude regions, making the need for regional management considerations a priority.

Benthic carbon turnover, sediment pigment concentrations and sinking fluxes of POC in the southeastern Beaufort Sea during CCGS Amundsen cruise 2008

The effects of changing ice and atmospheric conditions on the upwelling of deep nutrient-laden waters and biological productivity in the coastal Beaufort Sea were quantified using a unique combination of in situ and remote-sensing approaches. Repeated instances of ice ablation and upwelling during fall 2007 and summer 2008 multiplied the production of ice algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton and benthos by 2 to 6 fold. Strong wind forcing failed to induce upward shifts in the biological productivity of stratified waters off the shelf.

Flower and seed biomass, and germination rate of arctic tundra plants in response to long term experimental warming

We provide new information on changes in tundra plant sexual reproduction in response to long-term (12 years) experimental warming in the High Arctic. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were used to increase growing season temperatures by 1-2 °C across a range of vascular plant communities. The warming enhanced reproductive effort and success in most species; shrubs and graminoids appeared to be more responsive than forbs. We found that the measured effects of warming on sexual reproduction were more consistently positive and to a greater degree in polar oasis compared with polar semidesert vascular plant communities. Our findings support predictions that long-term warming in the High Arctic will likely enhance sexual reproduction in tundra plants, which could lead to an increase in plant cover. Greater abundance of vegetation has implications for primary consumers - via increased forage availability, and the global carbon budget - as a function of changes in permafrost and vegetation acting as a carbon sink. Enhanced sexual reproduction in Arctic vascular plants may lead to increased genetic variability of offspring, and consequently improved chances of survival in a changing environment. Our findings also indicate that with future warming, polar oases may play an important role as a seed source to the surrounding polar desert landscape.

Copepod abundance and fecal pellet production, sinking rate, and degradation in samples obtained during Leg 7 of Galathea 3 cruise 2006

The vertical distribution of copepods, fecal pellets and the fecal pellet production of copepods were measured at seven stations across the Southern Indian Ocean from productive areas off South Africa to oligotrophic waters off Northern Australia during October/November 2006. We quantified export of copepod fecal pellet from surface waters and how much was retained. Furthermore, the potential impact of Oncaea spp. and harpacticoid copepods on fecal pellets degradation was evaluated and found to be regional substantial. The highest copepod abundance and fecal pellet production was found in the western nutrient-rich stations close to South Africa and the lowest at the central oligotrophic stations. The in situ copepod fecal pellet production varied between 1 and 1,000 µg C/m**3/day. At all stations, the retention of fecal pellets in the upper 400 m of the water column was more than 99% and the vertical export of fecal pellets was low (<0.02 mg/m**2/day).

Characteristics and changes of thermokarst lakes in Canada, Russia and Sweden

Peat plateaus are widespread at high northern latitudes and are important soil organic carbon reservoirs. A warming climate can cause either increased ground subsidence (thermokarst) resulting in lake formation or increased drainage as the permafrost thaws. A better understanding of spatiotemporal variations in these landforms in relation to climate change is important for predicting the future thawing permafrost carbon feedback. In this study, dynamics in thermokarst lake extent during the last 35-50 years has been quantified through time series analysis of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images (IKONOS/QuickBird) in three peat plateau complexes, spread out across the northern circumpolar region along a climatic and permafrost gradient. From the mid-1970s until the mid-2000s there has been an increase in mean annual air temperature, winter precipitation, and ground temperature in all three study areas. The two peat plateaus located in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, respectively, where mean annual air temperatures are below -5°C and ground temperatures are -2°C or colder, have experienced small changes in thermokarst lake extent. In the peat plateau located in the sporadic permafrost zone where the mean annual air temperature is around -3°C, and the ground temperature is close to 0°C, lake drainage and infilling with fen vegetation has been extensive and many new thermokarst lakes have formed. In a future progressively warmer and wetter climate permafrost degradation can cause significant impacts on landscape composition and greenhouse gas exchange also in areas with extensive peat plateaus, which presently still experience stable permafrost conditions.

European mink (Mustela lutreola) and American mink (Neovison vison) detection histories in Northern Spain between 2000 and 2011

Understanding changes over time in the distribution of interacting native and invasive species that may be symptomatic of competitive exclusion is critical to identify the need for and effectiveness of management interventions. Occupancy models greatly increase the robustness of inference that can be made from presence/absence data when species are imperfectly detected, and recent novel developments allow for the quantification of the strength of interaction between pairs of species. We used a two-species multi-season occupancy model to quantify the impact of the invasive American mink on the native European mink in Spain through the analysis of their co-occurrence pattern over twelve years (2000 - 2011) in the entire Spanish range of European mink distribution, where both species were detected by live trapping but American mink were culled. We detected a negative temporal trend in the rate of occupancy of European mink and a simultaneous positive trend in the occupancy of American mink. The species co-occurred less often than expected and the native mink was more likely to become extinct from sites occupied by the invasive species. Removal of American mink resulted in a high probability of local extinction where it co-occurred with the endemic mink, but the overall increase in the probability of occupancy over the last decade indicates that the ongoing management is failing to halt its spread. More intensive culling effort where both species co-exist as well as in adjacent areas where the invasive American mink is found at high densities is required in order to stop thedecline of European mink.

UMA ANÁLISE DA RELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O COMPORTAMENTO DAS AÇÕES DE MAIOR LIQUIDEZ DO ÍNDICE IBOVESPA

As ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, refletem o comportamento das ações de um modo geral, bem como a relação das variáveis macroeconômicas em seu comportamento e estão entre as mais negociadas no mercado de capitais brasileiro. Desta forma, pode-se entender que há reflexos de fatores que impactam as empresas de maior liquidez que definem o comportamento das variáveis macroeconômicas e que o inverso também é uma verdade, oscilações nos fatores macroeconômicos também afetam as ações de maior liquidez, como IPCA, PIB, SELIC e Taxa de Câmbio. O estudo propõe uma análise da relação existente entre variáveis macroeconômicas e o comportamento das ações de maior liquidez do índice IBOVESPA, corroborando com estudos que buscam entender a influência de fatores macroeconômicos sobre o preço de ações e contribuindo empiricamente com a formação de portfólios de investimento. O trabalho abrangeu o período de 2008 a 2014. Os resultados concluíram que a formação de carteiras, visando a proteção do capital investido, deve conter ativos com correlação negativa em relação às variáveis estudadas, o que torna possível a composição de uma carteira com risco reduzido.

Inflation-Targeting, Flexible Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Performance since the Great Recession. CEPS Working Document No. 394, March 2014

Has inflation targeting (IT) conferred benefits in terms of economic growth on countries that followed this particular monetary policy strategy during the crisis period 2007-12? This paper answers this question in the affirmative. Countries with an IT monetary regime with flexible exchange rates weathered the crisis much better than countries with other monetary regimes, predominantly countries with fixed exchange rates. Part of this difference in growth performance reflects differences in export performance during the initial years of the crisis, which in turn can be explained by real exchange rate depreciations. However, IT seems also to confer other benefits on the countries above and beyond the effects from currency depreciation.

Diatom abundance and fatty acid composition of ice algae and of Calanus glacialis in samples obtained in 2008 in the eastern Beaufort Sea

The copepod Calanus glacialis plays a key role in the lipid-based energy flux in Arctic shelf seas. By utilizing both ice algae and phytoplankton, this species is able to extend its growth season considerably in these seasonally ice-covered seas. This study investigated the impacts of the variability in timing and extent of the ice algal bloom on the reproduction and population success of C. glacialis. The vertical distribution, reproduction, amount of storage lipids, stable isotopes, fatty acid and fatty alcohol composition of C. glacialis were assessed during the Circumpolar Flaw Lead System Study. Data were collected in the Amundsen Gulf, south-eastern Beaufort Sea, from January to July 2008 with the core-sampling from March to April. The reduction in sea ice thickness and coverage observed in the Amundsen Gulf in 2007 and 2008 affected the life strategy and reproduction of C. glacialis. Developmental stages CIII and CIV dominated the overwintering population, which resulted in the presence of very few CV and females during spring 2008. Spawning began at the peak of the ice algal bloom that preceded the precocious May ice break-up. Although the main recruitment may have occurred later in the season, low abundance of females combined with a potential mismatch between egg production/development to the first feeding stage and phytoplankton bloom resulted in low recruitment of C. glacialis in the early summer of 2008.

Physical characteristics and bacterial production and respiration at stations sampled during 2008 in the eastern Beaufort Sea

Bacterial carbon demand, an important component of ecosystem dynamics in polar waters and sea ice, is a function of both bacterial production (BP) and respiration (BR). BP has been found to be generally higher in sea ice than underlying waters, but rates of BR and bacterial growth efficiency (BGE) are poorly characterized in sea ice. Using melted ice core incubations, community respiration (CR), BP, and bacterial abundance (BA) were studied in sea ice and at the ice-water interface (IWI) in the Western Canadian Arctic during the spring and summer 2008. CR was converted to BR empirically. BP increased over the season and was on average 22 times higher in sea ice as compared with the IWI. Rates in ice samples were highly variable ranging from 0.2 to 18.3 µg C/l/d. BR was also higher in ice and on average ~10 times higher than BP but was less variable ranging from 2.39 to 22.5 µg C/l/d. Given the high variability in BP and the relatively more stable rates of BR, BP was the main driver of estimated BGE (r**2 = 0.97, P < 0.0001). We conclude that microbial respiration can consume a significant proportion of primary production in sea ice and may play an important role in biogenic CO2 fluxes between the sea ice and atmosphere.