Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

EEG-based functional networks in schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is often considered as a dysconnection syndrome in which, abnormal interactions between large-scale functional brain networks result in cognitive and perceptual deficits. In this article we apply the graph theoretic measures to brain functional networks based on the resting EEGs of fourteen schizophrenic patients in comparison with those of fourteen matched control subjects. The networks were extracted from common-average-referenced EEG time-series through partial and unpartial cross-correlation methods. Unpartial correlation detects functional connectivity based on direct and/or indirect links, while partial correlation allows one to ignore indirect links. We quantified the network properties with the graph metrics, including mall-worldness, vulnerability, modularity, assortativity, and synchronizability. The schizophrenic patients showed method-specific and frequency-specific changes especially pronounced for modularity, assortativity, and synchronizability measures. However, the differences between schizophrenia patients and normal controls in terms of graph theory metrics were stronger for the unpartial correlation method.

Ultrastructural changes of the internal limiting membrane removed during indocyanine green assisted peeling versus conventional surgery for an idiopathic epimacular membrane

Purpose:To evaluate the histological features of cellular retinal fragments on the internal limiting membrane (ILM) removed during epiretinal membrane peeling surgery with and without the aid of ICG diluted in 5% glucose Methods:ILM specimens removed from 88 eyes undergoing vitrectomy and membrane peeling surgery for idiopathic epiretinal membrane between 1995 and 2003 were reviewed retrospectively. Surgery was performed in all cases by the same surgeon using the same technique. ICG was diluted with 5% glucose. Histological analysis focused on the presence and characteristics of retinal structures on the retinal surface of the ILM. Statistical analysis compared the results between group I (conventional surgery without ICG) and group II (ICG-assisted peeling) Results:Seventy-one eyes underwent EMM surgery without the aid of ICG (group I) and seventeen underwent EMM ICG-assisted surgery assisted using ICG (group II). The amount of Muller cell debris on the retinal surface of the ILM was more significant in the group I (no ICG) than in the group II (ICG) (40.8 versus 11.8; p = 0.024). Large fragments of Muller cells were more frequently observed in the group I (no ICG) than in the group II (ICG) (63.4% versus 23.5%; p= 0.003).The presence of larger retinal elements such as neural axons and vessels were observed attached to retinal face of the ILM in 5 (7%) cases of the no-ICG group. No such retinal elements were detected in any of the histological ILM specimens of the ICG-assisted group Conclusions:The use of ICG diluted with 5% glucose in the aid of ILM removal during epiretinal membrane surgery was associated with less retinal debris attached to retinal face of the ILM compared to surgery in which ICG was not used. Our findings contradict previous reports in the literature, in which use of ICG diluted with balanced salt solution (BSS) was associated with more retinal fragments attached to the retinal face of the ILM. According to our results, we hypothesize that diluting ICG with 5% glucose may decrease the adhesion of the ILM to the underlying retinal layers such that less retinal debris is removed with peeling of the ILM.

Cognate microRNA-Gene Regulatory Networks Mediating Glioblastoma Oncogenic Properties

Malignant gliomas, including the most common and fatal form glioblastoma (GBM, WHO grade IV astrocytoma), remain a challenge to treat. In the United States and Europe, more than 30,000 patients per year are newly diagnosed with GBM. Despite ongoing trials, the best currently available multimodal treatment approaches include surgical resection followed by concomitant and adjuvant radiation (RT) and temozolomide (TMZ) therapy, resulting in a low median overall survival (OS) rate ranging from 12.2 - 15.9 months. The important role of genetic and epigenetic changes in DNA, RNA, and protein alteration as well as epigenetic changes secondary to the tumor microenvironment and outside selection pressure (therapeutic interventions), are increasingly being recognized. In GBM treatment, the focus is shifting toward a more patient-centered (personalized) therapy. In this regard, in particular, microRNAs are being increasingly studied. MicroRNAs are non¬protein coding small RNAs that serve as negative gene regulators by binding to a specific sequence in the promoter region of a target gene, thus regulating gene expression. A single microRNA potentially targets hundreds of genes; thus, microRNAs and their cognate target genes have important roles as tumor suppressors and oncogenes as well as regulators of various cancer- specific cellular features, such as proliferation, apoptosis, invasion, and metastasis. The identification of distinct microRNA-gene regulatory networks in GBM patients can be expected to provide novel therapeutic insights by identifying candidate patients for targeted therapies. To this end, in this work we identified and validated clinically relevant and meaningful novel gene- microRNA regulatory networks that correlated with MR tumor phenotypes, histopathology, and patient survival and response rates to therapy. - Le traitement des gliomes malins, y compris sous leur forme la plus commune et meurtrière, le glioblastome (GBM, ou astrocytome de grade IV selon l'OMS), demeure à ce jour un défi. Aux États-Unis et en Europe, un nouveau diagnostic de GBM est prononcé dans plus de 30Ό00 cas par an. En dépit de tests en cours, les meilleures approches thérapeutiques combinées actuellement disponibles comprennent la résection chirurgicale de la tumeur, suivie d'une radiothérapie adjuvante ainsi que d'un traitement au temozolomide (RT/TMZ), thérapies dont résulte une médiane de survie globale basse (overall survival, OS), comprise entre 12.2 et 15.9 mois. On reconnaît de plus en plus le rôle majeur de l'ADN, de l'ARN et de l'altération des protéines ainsi que des modifications épigénétiques, secondaires par rapport au microenvironnement de la tumeur et à la pression de sélection extérieure (les interventions thérapeutiques). Dans le traitement du GBM, le centre d'intérêt se déplace vers une thérapie centrée sur le cas individuel du patient. Dans ce but, en particulier les microARN sont de plus en plus analysés. Les microARN sont de petits ARN non-codants (les protéines) qui servent de régulateurs négatifs de gènes en s'attachant à une séquence spécifique dans la région promotrice d'un gène-cible, régulant ainsi l'expression du gène. Un seul microARN cible potentiellement des centaines de gènes; on a ainsi découvert que les microARN et leurs gènes-cibles apparentés ont une fonction importante en tant que suppresseurs de tumeurs et d'oncogènes, ainsi que comme régulateurs de diverses caractéristiques cellulaires spécifiques du cancer, comme la prolifération, l'apoptose, l'invasion et la métastase. On peut s'attendre à ce que l'identification de réseaux microARN régulateurs de gènes, distincts selon les patients de GBM, fournisse une approche thérapeutique inédite par la détermination des patients susceptibles de réagir favorablement à des thérapies ciblées.

Statistical mechanics of multi-edge networks

Statistical properties of binary complex networks are well understood and recently many attempts have been made to extend this knowledge to weighted ones. There are, however, subtle yet important considerations to be made regarding the nature of the weights used in this generalization. Weights can be either continuous or discrete magnitudes, and in the latter case, they can additionally have undistinguishable or distinguishable nature. This fact has not been addressed in the literature insofar and has deep implications on the network statistics. In this work we face this problem introducing multiedge networks as graphs where multiple (distinguishable) connections between nodes are considered. We develop a statistical mechanics framework where it is possible to get information about the most relevant observables given a large spectrum of linear and nonlinear constraints including those depending both on the number of multiedges per link and their binary projection. The latter case is particularly interesting as we show that binary projections can be understood from multiedge processes. The implications of these results are important as many real-agent-based problems mapped onto graphs require this treatment for a proper characterization of their collective behavior.

Postharvest quality of peaches harvested from integrated and conventional production systems

Over three years the postharvest quality of 'Marli' peaches harvested from the integrated (IFP) and conventional production (CFP) systems was evaluated. The peaches were harvested from commercial orchards of Prunus persica at two locations close to the city of São Jerônimo, RS, Brazil, and stored at 0.5°C for 10, 20 or 30 days. The peaches were evaluated at harvest, at retrieval from storage and after ripening periods at 20°C. No differences in fruit weight losses were determined. Decay incidence was low, and no differences were detected amongst systems in both 2001 and 2002 seasons, but in the 2000 season CFP peaches were more decayed. Flesh firmness of peaches from the IFP system were greater than CFP fruits in the years 2000 and 2001. In 2002, firmness changed little during storage and ripening. Peaches from the IFP in 2000 had higher titratable acidity and lower soluble solids. In the 2000 season, flesh browning was observed in decayed fruits, always at ripening after 20 or 30 days of cold storage Chilling injuries such as browning, woolliness and leatheriness ocurred in 2002. There were no differences amongst systems related to peach quality.

Ultrasound-assisted versus conventional catheter-directed thrombolysis for acute iliofemoral deep vein thrombosis.

BACKGROUND: For patients with acute iliofemoral deep vein thrombosis, it remains unclear whether the addition of intravascular high-frequency, low-power ultrasound energy facilitates the resolution of thrombosis during catheter-directed thrombolysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a controlled clinical trial, 48 patients (mean age 50 ± 21 years, 52% women) with acute iliofemoral deep vein thrombosis were randomized to receive ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis (N = 24) or conventional catheter-directed thrombolysis (N = 24). Thrombolysis regimen (20 mg r-tPA over 15 hours) was identical in all patients. The primary efficacy end point was the percentage of thrombus load reduction from baseline to 15 hours according to the length-adjusted thrombus score, obtained from standardized venograms and evaluated by a core laboratory blinded to group assignment. The percentage of thrombus load reduction was 55% ± 27% in the ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis group and 54% ± 27% in the conventional catheter-directed thrombolysis group (P = 0.91). Adjunctive angioplasty and stenting was performed in 19 (80%) patients and in 20 (83%) patients, respectively (P > 0.99). Treatment-related complications occurred in 3 (12%) and 2 (8%) patients, respectively (P > 0.99). At 3-month follow-up, primary venous patency was 100% in the ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis group and 96% in the conventional catheter-directed thrombolysis group (P = 0.33), and there was no difference in the severity of the post-thrombotic syndrome (mean Villalta score: 3.0 ± 3.9 [range 0-15] versus 1.9 ± 1.9 [range 0-7]; P=0.21), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized controlled clinical trial of patients with acute iliofemoral deep vein thrombosis treated with a fixed-dose catheter thrombolysis regimen, the addition of intravascular ultrasound did not facilitate thrombus resolution. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01482273.

Wireless Sensor Networks for Infrastructure Monitoring, TR-611, 2010

A good system of preventive bridge maintenance enhances the ability of engineers to manage and monitor bridge conditions, and take proper action at the right time. Traditionally infrastructure inspection is performed via infrequent periodical visual inspection in the field. Wireless sensor technology provides an alternative cost-effective approach for constant monitoring of infrastructures. Scientific data-acquisition systems make reliable structural measurements, even in inaccessible and harsh environments by using wireless sensors. With advances in sensor technology and availability of low cost integrated circuits, a wireless monitoring sensor network has been considered to be the new generation technology for structural health monitoring. The main goal of this project was to implement a wireless sensor network for monitoring the behavior and integrity of highway bridges. At the core of the system is a low-cost, low power wireless strain sensor node whose hardware design is optimized for structural monitoring applications. The key components of the systems are the control unit, sensors, software and communication capability. The extensive information developed for each of these areas has been used to design the system. The performance and reliability of the proposed wireless monitoring system is validated on a 34 feet span composite beam in slab bridge in Black Hawk County, Iowa. The micro strain data is successfully extracted from output-only response collected by the wireless monitoring system. The energy efficiency of the system was investigated to estimate the battery lifetime of the wireless sensor nodes. This report also documents system design, the method used for data acquisition, and system validation and field testing. Recommendations on further implementation of wireless sensor networks for long term monitoring are provided.

Yield and fruit quality of apple from conventional and organic production systems

The objective of this study was to assess the yield and fruit quality of apple produced with a conventional and an organic production systems in Southern Brazil. The orchards consisted of alternate rows from 10 to 12-year old 'Royal Gala' and 'Fuji' apple trees on M.7 rootstocks, grown as slender spindles, on 4x6 m spacing. Eighteen apple trees of each cultivar and management system were randomly selected and assessed for nutrition, flowering, fruit set, yield, and fruit quality during two growing seasons (2002/2003 and 2003/2004). The organic management system resulted in lower concentrations of K, Mg, and N in leaves and fruits, and in smaller fruits for both cultivars, and lower fruit yield for 'Fuji' than from the conventional production system. For both cultivars, fruits from the organic orchard harvested at commercial maturity had a more yellowish skin background color, higher percentage of blush in the fruit skin, higher soluble solids content, higher density, higher flesh firmness, and higher severity of russet than fruits from the conventional orchard. Fruit from the organic orchard had lower titratable acidity in 'Royal Gala', and higher incidence of moldy core and lower incidence of watercore in 'Fuji', than fruit from the conventional orchard. A non-trained sensory panel detected no significant differences for fruit attributes of taste, flavor and texture between fruit from the production systems for either cultivar.

Matching stages of heavy-ion collision models

Heavy-ion reactions and other collective dynamical processes are frequently described by different theoretical approaches for the different stages of the process, like initial equilibration stage, intermediate locally equilibrated fluid dynamical stage, and final freeze-out stage. For the last stage, the best known is the Cooper-Frye description used to generate the phase space distribution of emitted, noninteracting particles from a fluid dynamical expansion or explosion, assuming a final ideal gas distribution, or (less frequently) an out-of-equilibrium distribution. In this work we do not want to replace the Cooper-Frye description, but rather clarify the ways of using it and how to choose the parameters of the distribution and, eventually, how to choose the form of the phase space distribution used in the Cooper-Frye formula. Moreover, the Cooper-Frye formula is used in connection with the freeze-out problem, while the discussion of transition between different stages of the collision is applicable to other transitions also. More recently, hadronization and molecular dynamics models have been matched to the end of a fluid dynamical stage to describe hadronization and freeze-out. The stages of the model description can be matched to each other on space-time hypersurfaces (just like through the frequently used freeze-out hypersurface). This work presents a generalized description of how to match the stages of the description of a reaction to each other, extending the methodology used at freeze-out, in simple covariant form which is easily applicable in its simplest version for most applications.

Earthworm communities in organic and conventional coffee cultivation

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of organic and conventional coffee crops on biomass, population density and diversity of earthworms, in Lerroville, district of Londrina County, Paraná state, Brazil. Earthworm communities were sampled in three areas with organic coffee cultivation (CO1, CO2 and CO3), two with conventional coffee (CC1 and CC2), and a native forest fragment (MT). The soil of the areas CO1, CC1, and MT was classified as Nitossolo Vermelho (Rhodic Kandiudox), while CO2, CO3, and CC2 were on Latossolo Vermelho (Rhodic Hapludox). Eight samples were taken in each area on two occasions, winter and summer, using the Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility (TSBF) method in the 0-20 cm soil layer. The earthworms were handsorted and preserved in 4% formaldehyde, and were later weighed, counted and identified. The highest earthworm biomass, both in winter and summer, occurred in the CO3 area. For population density, the higher numbers of individuals were found in CO1 and CO3. The highest number of species was identified in the organic cultivation. The adoption of organic practices in coffee cultivation favored the diversity, density and biomass of earthworm communities.

Diffusion dynamics on multiplex networks

We study the time scales associated with diffusion processes that take place on multiplex networks, i.e., on a set of networks linked through interconnected layers. To this end, we propose the construction of a supra-Laplacian matrix, which consists of a dimensional lifting of the Laplacian matrix of each layer of the multiplex network. We use perturbative analysis to reveal analytically the structure of eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the complete network in terms of the spectral properties of the individual layers. The spectrum of the supra-Laplacian allows us to understand the physics of diffusionlike processes on top of multiplex networks.

Deciphering the global organization of clustering in real complex networks

We uncover the global organization of clustering in real complex networks. To this end, we ask whether triangles in real networks organize as in maximally random graphs with given degree and clustering distributions, or as in maximally ordered graph models where triangles are forced into modules. The answer comes by way of exploring m-core landscapes, where the m-core is defined, akin to the k-core, as the maximal subgraph with edges participating in at least m triangles. This property defines a set of nested subgraphs that, contrarily to k-cores, is able to distinguish between hierarchical and modular architectures. We find that the clustering organization in real networks is neither completely random nor ordered although, surprisingly, it is more random than modular. This supports the idea that the structure of real networks may in fact be the outcome of self-organized processes based on local optimization rules, in contrast to global optimization principles.