UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995-2001

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc-tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

Effects of cis-9,trans-11 and trans-1 0,cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid on immune cell function in healthy humans

Background: Animal studies have suggested that conjugated linoleic acid (CLA), a natural component of ruminant meat and dairy products, may confer beneficial effects on health. However, little information on the effects of CLA on immune function is available, especially in humans. Furthermore, the effects of individual isomers of CLA have not been adequately investigated. Objective: This study investigated the effects of supplementing the diet with 3 doses of highly enriched cis-9,trans-11 CLA (0.59, 1.19, and 2.38 g/d) or trans-10,cis-12 CLA (0.63, 1.26, and 2.52 g/d) on immune outcomes in healthy humans. Design: The study had a randomized, double-blind, crossover design. Healthy men consumed 1, 2, and 4 capsules sequentially that contained 80% of either cis-9,trans-11 CLA or trans-10,cis-12 CLA for consecutive 8-wk periods. This regimen was followed by a 6-wk washout and a crossover to the other isomer. Results: Both CLA isomers decreased mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation in a dose-dependent manner. There was a significant negative correlation between mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation and the proportions of both cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA in peripheral blood mononuclear cell lipids. However, CLA did not affect lymphocyte subpopulations or serum concentrations of C-reactive protein and did not have any consistent effects on ex vivo cytokine production. Conclusion: CLA supplementation results in a dose-dependent reduction in the mitogen-induced activation of T lymphocytes. The effects of cis-9,trans-l I CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA were similar, and there was a negative correlation between mitogen-induced T lymphocyte activation and the cis-9,trans-11 CLA and trans-10,cis-12 CLA contents of mononuclear cells.

Lack of association between central adiposity and lipaemia in UK Sikh men

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the positive statistical associations between measures of total and regional adiposity and measures of glucose, insulin and triacylglycerol ( TAG) metabolism reported in Caucasian men, are also observed in UK Sikhs. DESIGN: A matched cross-sectional study in which each volunteer provided a blood sample after a 12-h overnight fast and had anthropometric measurements taken. SUBJECTS: A total of 55 healthy Caucasian and 55 healthy UK Sikh men were recruited. The Caucasian and Sikh men were matched for age ( 48.7 +/- 10.9 and 48.3 +/- 10.0 y, respectively) and body mass index (BMI) ( 26.1 +/- 2.8 and 26.3 +/- 3.2 kg/m(2), respectively). MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometric measurements were performed to assess total and regional fat depots. The concentrations of plasma total cholesterol, high-density cholesterol (HDL- C), low-density cholesterol (LDL-C) and small dense LDL (LDL3), TAG, glucose, fasting insulin (ins) and nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) were analysed in fasted plasma. Surrogate measures of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and insulin sensitivity (RQUICKI) were calculated from insulin and glucose (HOMA-IR) and insulin, glucose and NEFA ( RQUICKI) measurements. RESULTS: The Sikh men had significantly higher body fat, with the sum of the four skinfold measurements (Ssk) ( P = 0.0001) and subscapular skinfold value (P = 0.009) higher compared with the Caucasian men. The Sikh volunteers also had characteristics of the metabolic syndrome: lower HDL-C (P = 0.07), higher TAG (P = 0.004), higher % LDL3 (P = 0.0001) and insulin resistance (P = 0.05). Both ethnic groups demonstrated positive correlations between insulin and waist circumference (Caucasian: r = 0.661, P = 0.0001; Sikh: r = 0.477, P = 0.0001). The Caucasian men also demonstrated significant positive correlations between central adiposity (r = 0.275, P = 0.04), other measures of adiposity (BMI and suprailiac skinfold) and plasma TAG, whereas the Sikh men showed no correlation for central adiposity (r = 0.019, ns) and TAG with a trend to a negative relationship between other measures ( Ssk and suprailiac) which reached near significance for subscapular skinfold and TAG (r = - 0.246, P = 0.007). The expected positive association between insulin and TAG was observed in the Caucasian men (r = 0.318, P = 0.04) but not in the Sikh men (r = 0.011, ns). CONCLUSIONS: In the Caucasian men, the expected positive association between plasma TAG and centralized body fat was observed. However, a lack of association between centralized, or any other measure of adiposity, and plasma TAG was observed in the matched Sikh men, although both ethnic groups showed the positive association between centralized body fat and insulin resistance, which was less strong for Sikhs. These findings in the Sikh men were not consistent with the hypothesis that there is a clear causal relationship between body fat and its distribution, insulin resistance, and lipid abnormalities associated with the metabolic syndrome, in this ethnic group.

Drug interaction and location in liposomes: correlation with polar surface areas

An important step in liposome characterization is to determine the location of a drug within the liposome. This work thus investigated the interaction of dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine liposomes with drugs of varied water solubility, polar surface area (PSA) and partition coefficient using high sensitivity differential scanning calorimetry. Lipophilic estradiol (ES) interacted strongest with the acyl chains of the lipid membrane, followed by the somewhat polar 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). Strongly hydrophilic mannitol (MAN) showed no evidence of interaction but water soluble polymers inulin (IN) and an antisense oligonucleotide (OLG), which have very high PSAs, interacted with the lipid head groups. Accordingly, the drugs could be classified as: hydrophilic ones situated in the aqueous core and which may interact with the head groups; those located at the water-bilayer interface with some degree of penetration into the lipid bilayer; those lipophilic drugs constrained within the bilayer. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Training conditional and cumulative risk judgements: the role of frequencies, problem-structure and Einstellung

Two experiments implement and evaluate a training scheme for learning to apply frequency formats to probability judgements couched in terms of percentages. Results indicate that both conditional and cumulative probability judgements can be improved in this manner, however the scheme is insufficient to promote any deeper understanding of the problem structure. In both experiments, training on one problem type only (either conditional or cumulative risk judgements) resulted in an inappropriate transfer of a learned method at test. The obstacles facing a frequency-based training programme for teaching appropriate use of probability data are discussed. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pseudo-neglect in Huntington's disease correlates with decreased angular gyrus density

Visuospatial attentional bias was examined in Huntington's disease (HID) patients with mild disease, asymptomatic gene-positive patients and controls. No group differences were found on the grey scales task (which is a non-motor task of visuospatial attentional bias), although patients' trinucleotide (CAG) repeat length correlated with increasing leftward bias. On the line bisection task, symptomatic patients made significantly larger leftward bisection errors relative to controls, who showed the normal slight degree of leftward error (pseudo-neglect). The asymptomatic group showed a trend for greater leftward error than controls. A subset of participants went on to have structural MRI, which showed a correlation between increased leftward error on the line bisection task and reduced density in the angular gyrus area (BA39) bilaterally. This finding is consistent with recent literature suggesting a critical role for the angular gyrus in the lateralization of visuospatial attention.

The intention-superiority effect for naturally occurring activities: the role of intention accessibility in everyday prospective remembering in young and older adults

This study examined age differences in the accessibility of a single pool of naturally occurring intentions both before and after completion. Following Maylor, Darby, and Della Sala (2000), accessibility was measured in terms of the number of activities generated in a 4-minute activity fluency task. Each participant undertook two such tasks. A prospective task in which they generated activities intended for completion during the following week and a retrospective task, I week later, in which they generated activities carried out over the previous week. In a partial replication of Maylor et al.'s findings, young, but not healthy older, adults generated more to-be-completed intentions than completed ones, demonstrating an intention-superiority effect (ISE) for everyday activities. The absence of an ISE for older adults appeared to reflect the reduced accessibility of intentions prior to completion, rather than the impaired inhibition of fulfilled intentions. Moreover, both groups showed greater inaccessibility of completed than intended activities, thus demonstrating an intentioncompletion effect for naturally occurring intentions that is preserved in healthy ageing (cf. Marsh, Hicks, & Bink, 1998). Despite showing a reduced accessibility of intended activities, older adults reported having completed a greater proportion of their intentions during the week than young adults. Moreover, there was a correlation between the ability to access intentions and the proportion of intentions completed only for young adults. These observations suggest that older adults' everyday prospective memory performance may be relatively less dependent on intention accessibility and more dependent on other factors. While there was no age difference in the reported use and effectiveness of external retrieval aids, older adults demonstrated a greater level of temporal organization in the production of their intentions in the fluency task. This is consistent with the possibility that older adults may have more structured daily lives and may be able to use information about the sequence of ongoing events to support superior everyday prospective remembering.

Compression of polymer brushes: quantitative comparison of self-consistent field theory with experiment

The self-consistent field theory (SCFT) prediction for the compression force between two semi-dilute polymer brushes is compared to the benchmark experiments of Taunton et al. [Nature, 1988, 332, 712]. The comparison is done with previously established parameters, and without any fitting parameters whatsoever. The SCFT provides a significant quantitative improvement over the classical strong-stretching theory (SST), yielding excellent quantitative agreement with the experiment. Contrary to earlier suggestions, chain fluctuations cannot be ignored for normal experimental conditions. Although the analytical expressions of SST provide invaluable aids to understanding the qualitative behavior of polymeric brushes, the numerical SCFT is necessary in order to provide quantitatively accurate predictions.

The relationship between convection and sea surface temperature on intraseasonal timescales

The relationship between tropical convection, surface fluxes, and sea surface temperature (SST) on intraseasonal timescales has been examined as part of an investigation of the possibility that the intraseasonal oscillation is a coupled atmosphere–ocean phenomenon. The unique feature of this study is that 15 yr of data and the whole region from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean have been analyzed using lag-correlation analysis and compositing techniques. A coherent relationship between convection, surface fluxes, and SST has been found on intraseasonal timescales in the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and west Pacific regions of the Tropics. Prior to the maximum in convection, there are positive shortwave and latent heat flux anomalies into the surface, followed by warm SST anomalies about 10 days before the convective maximum. Coincident with the convective maximum, there is a minimum in the shortwave flux, followed by a cooling due to increased evaporation associated with enhanced westerly wind stress, leading to negative SST anomalies about 10 days after the convection. The relationships are robust from year to year, including both phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) although the eastward extent of the region over which the relationship holds varies with the phase of ENSO, consistent with the variations in the eastward extent of the warm pool and westerly winds. The spatial scale of the anomalies is about 60° longitude, consistent with the scale of the intraseasonal oscillation. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the surface flux and SST perturbations are consistent with the surface flux variations forcing the ocean, and the magnitudes of the anomalies are consistent with mixed-layer depths appropriate to the Indian Ocean and west Pacific

Physical interpretation of the correlation between multi-angle spectral data and canopy height

Recent empirical studies have shown that multi-angle spectral data can be useful for predicting canopy height, but the physical reason for this correlation was not understood. We follow the concept of canopy spectral invariants, specifically escape probability, to gain insight into the observed correlation. Airborne Multi-Angle Imaging Spectrometer (AirMISR) and airborne Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data acquired during a NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program aircraft campaign underlie our analysis. Two multivariate linear regression models were developed to estimate LVIS height measures from 28 AirMISR multi-angle spectral reflectances and from the spectrally invariant escape probability at 7 AirMISR view angles. Both models achieved nearly the same accuracy, suggesting that canopy spectral invariant theory can explain the observed correlation. We hypothesize that the escape probability is sensitive to the aspect ratio (crown diameter to crown height). The multi-angle spectral data alone therefore may not provide enough information to retrieve canopy height globally.

Geostatistical analysis of rainfall

Rainfall can be modeled as a spatially correlated random field superimposed on a background mean value; therefore, geostatistical methods are appropriate for the analysis of rain gauge data. Nevertheless, there are certain typical features of these data that must be taken into account to produce useful results, including the generally non-Gaussian mixed distribution, the inhomogeneity and low density of observations, and the temporal and spatial variability of spatial correlation patterns. Many studies show that rigorous geostatistical analysis performs better than other available interpolation techniques for rain gauge data. Important elements are the use of climatological variograms and the appropriate treatment of rainy and nonrainy areas. Benefits of geostatistical analysis for rainfall include ease of estimating areal averages, estimation of uncertainties, and the possibility of using secondary information (e.g., topography). Geostatistical analysis also facilitates the generation of ensembles of rainfall fields that are consistent with a given set of observations, allowing for a more realistic exploration of errors and their propagation in downstream models, such as those used for agricultural or hydrological forecasting. This article provides a review of geostatistical methods used for kriging, exemplified where appropriate by daily rain gauge data from Ethiopia.

Efficient on the fly calculation of time correlation functions in computer simulations

Time correlation functions yield profound information about the dynamics of a physical system and hence are frequently calculated in computer simulations. For systems whose dynamics span a wide range of time, currently used methods require significant computer time and memory. In this paper, we discuss the multiple-tau correlator method for the efficient calculation of accurate time correlation functions on the fly during computer simulations. The multiple-tau correlator is efficacious in terms of computational requirements and can be tuned to the desired level of accuracy. Further, we derive estimates for the error arising from the use of the multiple-tau correlator and extend it for use in the calculation of mean-square particle displacements and dynamic structure factors. The method described here, in hardware implementation, is routinely used in light scattering experiments but has not yet found widespread use in computer simulations.

Strong-segregation limit of the self-consistent field theory for diblock copolymer melts

The self-consistent field theory (SCFT) introduced by Helfand for diblock copolymer melts is expected to converge to the strong-segregation theory (SST) of Semenov in the asymptotic limit, $\chi N \rightarrow \infty$. However, past extrapolations of the lamellar/cylinder and cylinder/sphere phase boundaries, within the standard unit-cell approximation, have cast some doubts on whether or not this is actually true. Here we push the comparison further by extending the SCFT calculations to $\chi N = 512,000$, by accounting for exclusion zones in the coronae of the cylindrical and spherical unit cells, and by examining finite-segregation corrections to SST. In doing so, we provide the first compelling evidence that SCFT does indeed reduce to SST.