Variational ensemble Kalman filtering applied to data assimilation problems in computational fluid dynamics

One challenge on data assimilation (DA) methods is how the error covariance for the model state is computed. Ensemble methods have been proposed for producing error covariance estimates, as error is propagated in time using the non-linear model. Variational methods, on the other hand, use the concepts of control theory, whereby the state estimate is optimized from both the background and the measurements. Numerical optimization schemes are applied which solve the problem of memory storage and huge matrix inversion needed by classical Kalman filter methods. Variational Ensemble Kalman filter (VEnKF), as a method inspired the Variational Kalman Filter (VKF), enjoys the benefits from both ensemble methods and variational methods. It avoids filter inbreeding problems which emerge when the ensemble spread underestimates the true error covariance. In VEnKF this is tackled by resampling the ensemble every time measurements are available. One advantage of VEnKF over VKF is that it needs neither tangent linear code nor adjoint code. In this thesis, VEnKF has been applied to a two-dimensional shallow water model simulating a dam-break experiment. The model is a public code with water height measurements recorded in seven stations along the 21:2 m long 1:4 m wide flume’s mid-line. Because the data were too sparse to assimilate the 30 171 model state vector, we chose to interpolate the data both in time and in space. The results of the assimilation were compared with that of a pure simulation. We have found that the results revealed by the VEnKF were more realistic, without numerical artifacts present in the pure simulation. Creating a wrapper code for a model and DA scheme might be challenging, especially when the two were designed independently or are poorly documented. In this thesis we have presented a non-intrusive approach of coupling the model and a DA scheme. An external program is used to send and receive information between the model and DA procedure using files. The advantage of this method is that the model code changes needed are minimal, only a few lines which facilitate input and output. Apart from being simple to coupling, the approach can be employed even if the two were written in different programming languages, because the communication is not through code. The non-intrusive approach is made to accommodate parallel computing by just telling the control program to wait until all the processes have ended before the DA procedure is invoked. It is worth mentioning the overhead increase caused by the approach, as at every assimilation cycle both the model and the DA procedure have to be initialized. Nonetheless, the method can be an ideal approach for a benchmark platform in testing DA methods. The non-intrusive VEnKF has been applied to a multi-purpose hydrodynamic model COHERENS to assimilate Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi. The lake has an area of 154 km2 with an average depth of 5:4 m. Turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentrations from MERIS satellite images for 7 days between May 16 and July 6 2009 were available. The effect of the organic matter has been computationally eliminated to obtain TSM data. Because of computational demands from both COHERENS and VEnKF, we have chosen to use 1 km grid resolution. The results of the VEnKF have been compared with the measurements recorded at an automatic station located at the North-Western part of the lake. However, due to TSM data sparsity in both time and space, it could not be well matched. The use of multiple automatic stations with real time data is important to elude the time sparsity problem. With DA, this will help in better understanding the environmental hazard variables for instance. We have found that using a very high ensemble size does not necessarily improve the results, because there is a limit whereby additional ensemble members add very little to the performance. Successful implementation of the non-intrusive VEnKF and the ensemble size limit for performance leads to an emerging area of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). To save computational resources, running full-blown model in ROM is avoided. When the ROM is applied with the non-intrusive DA approach, it might result in a cheaper algorithm that will relax computation challenges existing in the field of modelling and DA.

A study of computational methods to analyze gene expression data

The recent advent of new technologies has led to huge amounts of genomic data. With these data come new opportunities to understand biological cellular processes underlying hidden regulation mechanisms and to identify disease related biomarkers for informative diagnostics. However, extracting biological insights from the immense amounts of genomic data is a challenging task. Therefore, effective and efficient computational techniques are needed to analyze and interpret genomic data. In this thesis, novel computational methods are proposed to address such challenges: a Bayesian mixture model, an extended Bayesian mixture model, and an Eigen-brain approach. The Bayesian mixture framework involves integration of the Bayesian network and the Gaussian mixture model. Based on the proposed framework and its conjunction with K-means clustering and principal component analysis (PCA), biological insights are derived such as context specific/dependent relationships and nested structures within microarray where biological replicates are encapsulated. The Bayesian mixture framework is then extended to explore posterior distributions of network space by incorporating a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model. The extended Bayesian mixture model summarizes the sampled network structures by extracting biologically meaningful features. Finally, an Eigen-brain approach is proposed to analyze in situ hybridization data for the identification of the cell-type specific genes, which can be useful for informative blood diagnostics. Computational results with region-based clustering reveals the critical evidence for the consistency with brain anatomical structure.

A noise simulator for eLISA: Migrating LISA Pathfinder knowledge to the eLISA mission

We present a new technical simulator for the eLISA mission, based on state space modeling techniques and developed in MATLAB. This simulator computes the coordinate and velocity over time of each body involved in the constellation, i.e. the spacecraft and its test masses, taking into account the different disturbances and actuations. This allows studying the contribution of instrumental noises and system imperfections on the residual acceleration applied on the TMs, the latter reflecting the performance of the achieved free-fall along the sensitive axis. A preliminary version of the results is presented.

Computational modeling of laser-induced delamination testing of thin films

Thin film adhesion often determines microelectronic device reliability and it is therefore essential to have experimental techniques that accurately and efficiently characterize it. Laser-induced delamination is a novel technique that uses laser-generated stress waves to load thin films at high strain rates and extract the fracture toughness of the film/substrate interface. The effectiveness of the technique in measuring the interface properties of metallic films has been documented in previous studies. The objective of the current effort is to model the effect of residual stresses on the dynamic delamination of thin films. Residual stresses can be high enough to affect the crack advance and the mode mixity of the delimitation event, and must therefore be adequately modeled to make accurate and repeatable predictions of fracture toughness. The equivalent axial force and bending moment generated by the residual stresses are included in a dynamic, nonlinear finite element model of the delaminating film, and the impact of residual stresses on the final extent of the interfacial crack, the relative contribution of shear failure, and the deformed shape of the delaminated film is studied in detail. Another objective of the study is to develop techniques to address issues related to the testing of polymeric films. These type of films adhere well to silicon and the resulting crack advance is often much smaller than for metallic films, making the extraction of the interface fracture toughness more difficult. The use of an inertial layer which enhances the amount of kinetic energy trapped in the film and thus the crack advance is examined. It is determined that the inertial layer does improve the crack advance, although in a relatively limited fashion. The high interface toughness of polymer films often causes the film to fail cohesively when the crack front leaves the weakly bonded region and enters the strong interface. The use of a tapered pre-crack region that provides a more gradual transition to the strong interface is examined. The tapered triangular pre-crack geometry is found to be effective in reducing the stresses induced thereby making it an attractive option. We conclude by studying the impact of modifying the pre-crack geometry to enable the testing of multiple polymer films.

Methods matter: computational modelling in public health policy and planning

This work is aimed at understanding and unifying information on epidemiological modelling methods and how those methods relate to public policy addressing human health, specifically in the context of infectious disease prevention, pandemic planning, and health behaviour change. This thesis employs multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, and presents as a manuscript of several individual, data-driven projects that are combined in a narrative arc. The first chapter introduces the scope and complexity of this interdisciplinary undertaking, describing several topical intersections of importance. The second chapter begins the presentation of original data, and describes in detail two exercises in computational epidemiological modelling pertinent to pandemic influenza planning and policy, and progresses in the next chapter to present additional original data on how the confidence of the public in modelling methodology may have an effect on their planned health behaviour change as recommended in public health policy. The thesis narrative continues in the final data-driven chapter to describe how health policymakers use modelling methods and scientific evidence to inform and construct health policies for the prevention of infectious diseases, and concludes with a narrative chapter that evaluates the breadth of this data and recommends strategies for the optimal use of modelling methodologies when informing public health policy in applied public health scenarios.

Measurement and Simulation of Suppression Effects in a Buoyant Turbulent Line Fire

An experimental and numerical study of turbulent fire suppression is presented. For this work, a novel and canonical facility has been developed, featuring a buoyant, turbulent, methane or propane-fueled diffusion flame suppressed via either nitrogen dilution of the oxidizer or application of a fine water mist. Flames are stabilized on a slot burner surrounded by a co-flowing oxidizer, which allows controlled delivery of either suppressant to achieve a range of conditions from complete combustion through partial and total flame quenching. A minimal supply of pure oxygen is optionally applied along the burner to provide a strengthened flame base that resists liftoff extinction and permits the study of substantially weakened turbulent flames. The carefully designed facility features well-characterized inlet and boundary conditions that are especially amenable to numerical simulation. Non-intrusive diagnostics provide detailed measurements of suppression behavior, yielding insight into the governing suppression processes, and aiding the development and validation of advanced suppression models. Diagnostics include oxidizer composition analysis to determine suppression potential, flame imaging to quantify visible flame structure, luminous and radiative emissions measurements to assess sooting propensity and heat losses, and species-based calorimetry to evaluate global heat release and combustion efficiency. The studied flames experience notable suppression effects, including transition in color from bright yellow to dim blue, expansion in flame height and structural intermittency, and reduction in radiative heat emissions. Still, measurements indicate that the combustion efficiency remains close to unity, and only near the extinction limit do the flames experience an abrupt transition from nearly complete combustion to total extinguishment. Measurements are compared with large eddy simulation results obtained using the Fire Dynamics Simulator, an open-source computational fluid dynamics software package. Comparisons of experimental and simulated results are used to evaluate the performance of available models in predicting fire suppression. Simulations in the present configuration highlight the issue of spurious reignition that is permitted by the classical eddy-dissipation concept for modeling turbulent combustion. To address this issue, simple treatments to prevent spurious reignition are developed and implemented. Simulations incorporating these treatments are shown to produce excellent agreement with the experimentally measured data, including the global combustion efficiency.

Computational Analysis of Intelligent Agents: Social and Strategic Settings

The central motif of this work is prediction and optimization in presence of multiple interacting intelligent agents. We use the phrase `intelligent agents' to imply in some sense, a `bounded rationality', the exact meaning of which varies depending on the setting. Our agents may not be `rational' in the classical game theoretic sense, in that they don't always optimize a global objective. Rather, they rely on heuristics, as is natural for human agents or even software agents operating in the real-world. Within this broad framework we study the problem of influence maximization in social networks where behavior of agents is myopic, but complication stems from the structure of interaction networks. In this setting, we generalize two well-known models and give new algorithms and hardness results for our models. Then we move on to models where the agents reason strategically but are faced with considerable uncertainty. For such games, we give a new solution concept and analyze a real-world game using out techniques. Finally, the richest model we consider is that of Network Cournot Competition which deals with strategic resource allocation in hypergraphs, where agents reason strategically and their interaction is specified indirectly via player's utility functions. For this model, we give the first equilibrium computability results. In all of the above problems, we assume that payoffs for the agents are known. However, for real-world games, getting the payoffs can be quite challenging. To this end, we also study the inverse problem of inferring payoffs, given game history. We propose and evaluate a data analytic framework and we show that it is fast and performant.

Computational Foundations for Safe and Efficient Human-Robot Collaboration in Assembly Cells

Human and robots have complementary strengths in performing assembly operations. Humans are very good at perception tasks in unstructured environments. They are able to recognize and locate a part from a box of miscellaneous parts. They are also very good at complex manipulation in tight spaces. The sensory characteristics of the humans, motor abilities, knowledge and skills give the humans the ability to react to unexpected situations and resolve problems quickly. In contrast, robots are very good at pick and place operations and highly repeatable in placement tasks. Robots can perform tasks at high speeds and still maintain precision in their operations. Robots can also operate for long periods of times. Robots are also very good at applying high forces and torques. Typically, robots are used in mass production. Small batch and custom production operations predominantly use manual labor. The high labor cost is making it difficult for small and medium manufacturers to remain cost competitive in high wage markets. These manufactures are mainly involved in small batch and custom production. They need to find a way to reduce the labor cost in assembly operations. Purely robotic cells will not be able to provide them the necessary flexibility. Creating hybrid cells where humans and robots can collaborate in close physical proximities is a potential solution. The underlying idea behind such cells is to decompose assembly operations into tasks such that humans and robots can collaborate by performing sub-tasks that are suitable for them. Realizing hybrid cells that enable effective human and robot collaboration is challenging. This dissertation addresses the following three computational issues involved in developing and utilizing hybrid assembly cells: - We should be able to automatically generate plans to operate hybrid assembly cells to ensure efficient cell operation. This requires generating feasible assembly sequences and instructions for robots and human operators, respectively. Automated planning poses the following two challenges. First, generating operation plans for complex assemblies is challenging. The complexity can come due to the combinatorial explosion caused by the size of the assembly or the complex paths needed to perform the assembly. Second, generating feasible plans requires accounting for robot and human motion constraints. The first objective of the dissertation is to develop the underlying computational foundations for automatically generating plans for the operation of hybrid cells. It addresses both assembly complexity and motion constraints issues. - The collaboration between humans and robots in the assembly cell will only be practical if human safety can be ensured during the assembly tasks that require collaboration between humans and robots. The second objective of the dissertation is to evaluate different options for real-time monitoring of the state of human operator with respect to the robot and develop strategies for taking appropriate measures to ensure human safety when the planned move by the robot may compromise the safety of the human operator. In order to be competitive in the market, the developed solution will have to include considerations about cost without significantly compromising quality. - In the envisioned hybrid cell, we will be relying on human operators to bring the part into the cell. If the human operator makes an error in selecting the part or fails to place it correctly, the robot will be unable to correctly perform the task assigned to it. If the error goes undetected, it can lead to a defective product and inefficiencies in the cell operation. The reason for human error can be either confusion due to poor quality instructions or human operator not paying adequate attention to the instructions. In order to ensure smooth and error-free operation of the cell, we will need to monitor the state of the assembly operations in the cell. The third objective of the dissertation is to identify and track parts in the cell and automatically generate instructions for taking corrective actions if a human operator deviates from the selected plan. Potential corrective actions may involve re-planning if it is possible to continue assembly from the current state. Corrective actions may also involve issuing warning and generating instructions to undo the current task.

Towards a better understanding of granular material processes: The coupling of a computational fluid dynamics framework with micro-mechanical models

Abstract not available

A rolling-gliding wear simulator for the investigation of tribological material pairings for application in total knee arthroplasty

Background: Material wear testing is an important technique in the development and evaluation of materials for use in implant for total knee arthroplasty. Since a knee joint induces a complex rolling-gliding movement, standardised material wear testing devices such as Pin-on-Disc or Ring-on-Disc testers are suitable to only a limited extent because they generate pure gliding motion only.Methods: A rolling-gliding wear simulator was thus designed, constructed and implemented, which simulates and reproduces the rolling-gliding movement and loading of the knee joint on specimens of simplified geometry. The technical concept was to run a base-plate, representing the tibia plateau, against a pivoted cylindrical counter-body, representing one femur condyle under an axial load. A rolling movement occurs as a result of the friction and pure gliding is induced by limiting the rotation of the cylindrical counter-body. The set up also enables simplified specimens handling and removal for gravimetrical wear measurements. Long-term wear tests and gravimetrical wear measurements were carried out on the well known material pairings: cobalt chrome-polyethylene, ceramic-polyethylene and ceramic-ceramic, over three million motion cycles to allow material comparisons to be made.Results: The observed differences in wear rates between cobalt-chrome on polyethylene and ceramic on polyethylene pairings were similar to the differences of published data for existing material-pairings. Test results on ceramic-ceramic pairings of different frontal-plane geometry and surface roughness displayed low wear rates and no fracture failures.Conclusions: The presented set up is able to simulate the rolling-gliding movement of the knee joint, is easy to use, and requires a minimum of user intervention or monitoring. It is suitable for long-term testing, and therefore a useful tool for the investigation of new and promising materials which are of interest for application in knee joint replacement implants. © 2010 Richter et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Sensory gating and its modulation by cannabinoids: electrophysiological, computational and mathematical analysis

Gating of sensory information can be assessed using an auditory conditioning-test paradigm which measures the reduction in the auditory evoked response to a test stimulus following an initial conditioning stimulus. Recording brainwaves from specific areas of the brain using multiple electrodes is helpful in the study of the neurobiology of sensory gating. In this paper, we use such technology to investigate the role of cannabinoids in sensory gating in the CA3 region of the rat hippocampus. Our experimental results show that application of the exogenous cannabinoid agonist WIN55,212-2 can abolish sensory gating. We have developed a phenomenological model of cannabinoid dynamics incorporated within a spiking neural network model of CA3 with synaptically interacting pyramidal and basket cells. Direct numerical simulations of this model suggest that the basic mechanism for this effect can be traced to the suppression of inhibition of slow GABAB synapses. Furthermore, by working with a simpler mathematical firing rate model we are able to show the robustness of this mechanism for the abolition of sensory gating.

Computational approaches to emotional decision making

Findings on the role that emotion plays in human behavior have transformed Artificial Intelligence computations. Modern research explores how to simulate more intelligent and flexible systems. Several studies focus on the role that emotion has in order to establish values for alternative decision and decision outcomes. For instance, Busemeyer et al. (2007) argued that emotional state affects the subjectivity value of alternative choice. However, emotional concepts in these theories are generally not defined formally and it is difficult to describe in systematic detail how processes work. In this sense, structures and processes cannot be explicitly implemented. Some attempts have been incorporated into larger computational systems that try to model how emotion affects human mental processes and behavior (Becker-Asano & Wachsmuth, 2008; Marinier, Laird & Lewis, 2009; Marsella & Gratch, 2009; Parkinson, 2009; Sander, Grandjean & Scherer, 2005). As we will see, some tutoring systems have explored this potential to inform user models. Likewise, dialogue systems, mixed-initiative planning systems, or systems that learn from observation could also benefit from such an approach (Dickinson, Brew & Meurers, 2013; Jurafsky & Martin, 2009). That is, considering emotion as interaction can be relevant in order to explain the dynamic role it plays in action and cognition (see Boehner et al., 2007).

Improvement of Virtual Screening Predictions using Computational Intelligence Methods

Virtual Screening (VS) methods can considerably aid clinical research, predicting how ligands interact with drug targets. However, the accuracy of most VS methods is constrained by limitations in the scoring function that describes biomolecular interactions, and even nowadays these uncertainties are not completely understood. In order to improve accuracy of scoring functions used in most VS methods we propose a hybrid novel approach where neural networks (NNET) and support vector machines (SVM) methods are trained with databases of known active (drugs) and inactive compounds, this information being exploited afterwards to improve VS predictions.