870 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models


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Thermal analysis of electronic devices is one of the most important steps for designing of modern devices. Precise thermal analysis is essential for designing an effective thermal management system of modern electronic devices such as batteries, LEDs, microelectronics, ICs, circuit boards, semiconductors and heat spreaders. For having a precise thermal analysis, the temperature profile and thermal spreading resistance of the device should be calculated by considering the geometry, property and boundary conditions. Thermal spreading resistance occurs when heat enters through a portion of a surface and flows by conduction. It is the primary source of thermal resistance when heat flows from a tiny heat source to a thin and wide heat spreader. In this thesis, analytical models for modeling the temperature behavior and thermal resistance in some common geometries of microelectronic devices such as heat channels and heat tubes are investigated. Different boundary conditions for the system are considered. Along the source plane, a combination of discretely specified heat flux, specified temperatures and adiabatic condition are studied. Along the walls of the system, adiabatic or convective cooling boundary conditions are assumed. Along the sink plane, convective cooling with constant or variable heat transfer coefficient are considered. Also, the effect of orthotropic properties is discussed. This thesis contains nine chapters. Chapter one is the introduction and shows the concepts of thermal spreading resistance besides the originality and importance of the work. Chapter two reviews the literatures on the thermal spreading resistance in the past fifty years with a focus on the recent advances. In chapters three and four, thermal resistance of a twodimensional flux channel with non-uniform convection coefficient in the heat sink plane is studied. The non-uniform convection is modeled by using two functions than can simulate a wide variety of different heat sink configurations. In chapter five, a non-symmetrical flux channel with different heat transfer coefficient along the right and left edges and sink plane is analytically modeled. Due to the edge cooling and non-symmetry, the eigenvalues of the system are defined using the heat transfer coefficient on both edges and for satisfying the orthogonality condition, a normalized function is calculated. In chapter six, thermal behavior of two-dimensional rectangular flux channel with arbitrary boundary conditions on the source plane is presented. The boundary condition along the source plane can be a combination of the first kind boundary condition (Dirichlet or prescribed temperature) and the second kind boundary condition (Neumann or prescribed heat flux). The proposed solution can be used for modeling the flux channels with numerous different source plane boundary conditions without any limitations in the number and position of heat sources. In chapter seven, temperature profile of a circular flux tube with discretely specified boundary conditions along the source plane is presented. Also, the effect of orthotropic properties are discussed. In chapter 8, a three-dimensional rectangular flux channel with a non-uniform heat convection along the heat sink plane is analytically modeled. In chapter nine, a summary of the achievements is presented and some systems are proposed for the future studies. It is worth mentioning that all the models and case studies in the thesis are compared with the Finite Element Method (FEM).

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Oscillating Water Column (OWC) is one type of promising wave energy devices due to its obvious advantage over many other wave energy converters: no moving component in sea water. Two types of OWCs (bottom-fixed and floating) have been widely investigated, and the bottom-fixed OWCs have been very successful in several practical applications. Recently, the proposal of massive wave energy production and the availability of wave energy have pushed OWC applications from near-shore to deeper water regions where floating OWCs are a better choice. For an OWC under sea waves, the air flow driving air turbine to generate electricity is a random process. In such a working condition, single design/operation point is nonexistent. To improve energy extraction, and to optimise the performance of the device, a system capable of controlling the air turbine rotation speed is desirable. To achieve that, this paper presents a short-term prediction of the random, process by an artificial neural network (ANN), which can provide near-future information for the control system. In this research, ANN is explored and tuned for a better prediction of the airflow (as well as the device motions for a wide application). It is found that, by carefully constructing ANN platform and optimizing the relevant parameters, ANN is capable of predicting the random process a few steps ahead of the real, time with a good accuracy. More importantly, the tuned ANN works for a large range of different types of random, process.

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A critical question regarding the organic carbon cycle in the Arctic Ocean is whether the decline in ice extent and thickness and the associated increase in solar irradiance in the upper ocean will result in increased primary production and particulate organic carbon (POC) export. To assess spatial and temporal variability in POC export, under-ice export fluxes were measured with short-term sediment traps in the northern Laptev Sea in July-August-September 1995, north of the Fram Strait in July 1997, and in the Central Arctic in August-September 2012. Sediment traps were deployed at 2-5 m and 20-25 m under ice for periods ranging from 8.5 to 71 h. In addition to POC fluxes, total particulate matter, chlorophyll a, biogenic particulate silica, phytoplankton, and zooplankton fecal pellet fluxes were measured to evaluate the amount and composition of the material exported in the upper Arctic Ocean. Whereas elevated export fluxes observed on and near the Laptev Sea shelf were likely the combined result of high primary production, resuspension, and release of particulate matter from melting ice, low export fluxes above the central basins despite increased light availability during the record minimum ice extent of 2012 suggest that POC export was limited by nutrient supply during summer. These results suggest that the ongoing decline in ice cover affects export fluxes differently on Arctic shelves and over the deep Arctic Ocean and that POC export is likely to remain low above the central basins unless additional nutrients are supplied to surface waters.

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In establishing the reliability of performance-related design methods for concrete – which are relevant for resistance against chloride-induced corrosion - long-term experience of local materials and practices and detailed knowledge of the ambient and local micro-climate are critical. Furthermore, in the development of analytical models for performance-based design, calibration against test data representative of actual conditions in practice is required. To this end, the current study presents results from full-scale, concrete pier-stems under long-term exposure to a marine environment with work focussing on XS2 (below mid-tide level) in which the concrete is regarded as fully saturated and XS3 (tidal, splash and spray) in which the concrete is in an unsaturated condition. These exposures represent zones where concrete structures are most susceptible to ionic ingress and deterioration. Chloride profiles and chloride transport behaviour are studied using both an empirical model (erfc function) and a physical model (ClinConc). The time dependency of surface chloride concentration (Cs) and apparent diffusivity (Da) were established for the empirical model whereas, in the ClinConc model (originally based on saturated concrete), two new environmental factors were introduced for the XS3 environmental exposure zone. Although the XS3 is considered as one environmental exposure zone according to BS EN 206-1:2013, the work has highlighted that even within this zone, significant changes in chloride ingress are evident. This study aims to update the parameters of both models for predicting the long term transport behaviour of concrete subjected to environmental exposure classes XS2 and XS3.

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In recent years modern numerical methods have been employed in the design of Wave Energy Converters (WECs), however the high computational costs associated with their use makes it prohibitive to undertake simulations involving statistically relevant numbers of wave cycles. Experimental tests in wave tanks could also be performed more efficiently and economically if short time traces, consisting of only a few wave cycles, could be used to evaluate the hydrodynamic characteristics of a particular device or design modification. Ideally, accurate estimations of device performance could be made utilizing results obtained from investigations with a relatively small number of wave cycles. However the difficulty here is that many WECs, such as the Oscillating Wave Surge Converter (OWSC), exhibit significant non-linearity in their response. Thus it is challenging to make accurate predictions of annual energy yield for a given spectral sea state using short duration realisations of that sea. This is because the non-linear device response to particular phase couplings of sinusoidal components within those time traces might influence the estimate of mean power capture obtained. As a result it is generally accepted that the most appropriate estimate of mean power capture for a sea state be obtained over many hundreds (or thousands) of wave cycles. This ensures that the potential influence of phase locking is negligible in comparison to the predictions made. In this paper, potential methods of providing reasonable estimates of relative variations in device performance using short duration sea states are introduced. The aim of the work is to establish the shortness of sea state required to provide statistically significant estimations of the mean power capture of a particular type of Wave Energy Converter. The results show that carefully selected wave traces can be used to reliably assess variations in power output due to changes in the hydrodynamic design or wave climate. 

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Most hospitality firms do not consider managing stock portfolios to be a main part of their operations. They are in the service business, using their real assets and the services provided by employees to create valuable experiences for guests. However, the need to focus on stock investments arises through those employees. Employees consistently rank benefits, including retirement benefits, among the top five contributors to job satisfaction and as a key consideration in accepting a job.1 It is not surprising, then, that more than 90 percent of companies with 500 or more employees offer retirement plans. The five largest hotel companies in the U.S. have over $10 billion in assets under management in their retirement plans, making these plans a key component in retirement investment decisions.

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This paper presents the determination of a mean solar radiation year and of a typical meteorological year for the region of Funchal in the Madeira Island, Portugal. The data set includes hourly mean and extreme values for air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and hourly mean values for solar global and diffuse radiation for the period 2004-2014, with maximum data coverage of 99.7%. The determination of the mean solar radiation year consisted, in a first step, in the average of all values for each pair hour/day and, in a second step, in the application of a five days centred moving average of hourly values. The determination of the typical meteorological year was based on Finkelstein-Schafer statistics, which allows to obtain a complete year of real measurements through the selection and combination of typical months, preserving the long term averages while still allowing the analysis of short term events. The typical meteorological year validation was carried out through the comparison of the monthly averages for the typical year with the long term monthly averages. The values obtained were very close, so that the typical meteorological year can accurately represent the long term data series. The typical meteorological year can be used in the simulation of renewable energy systems, namely solar energy systems, and for predicting the energy performance of buildings.

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This thesis intends to analyse the performance and the efficiency of companies and to identify the key factors that may explain it. A comprehensive analysis based on a set of economic and financial ratios was studied as an instrument which provides information on enterprise performance and its efficiency. It was selected a sample with 15 enterprises: 7 Portuguese and 8 Ukrainian ones, belonging to several industries. Financial and non-financial data was collected for 6 years, during the period of 2009 to 2014. Research questions that guided this work were: Are the enterprises efficient/profitable? What factors influence enterprises’ efficiency/performance? Is there any difference between Ukrainian and Portuguese enterprises’ efficiency/performance, which factors have more influence? Which industrial sector is represented by more efficient/profitable enterprises? The main results showed that in average enterprises were efficient; comparing by states Ukrainian enterprises are more efficient; industries have similar level of efficiency. Among factors that influence ATR positively are fixed and current assets turnover ratios, ROA; negatively influencing are EBITDA margin and liquidity ratio. There is no significant difference between models by country. Concerning profitability, enterprises have low performance level but in comparison of countries Ukrainian enterprises have better profitability in average. Regarding the industry sector, paper industry is the most profitable. Among factors influencing ROA are profit margin, fixed asset turnover ratio, EBITDA margin, Debt to equity ratio and the country. In case of profitability both countries have different models. For Ukrainian enterprises is suggested to pay attention on factors of Short-term debt to total debt, ROA, Interest coverage ratio in order to be more efficient; Profit margin and EBITDA margin to make their performance better. For Portuguese enterprises for improving efficiency the observation and improvement of fixed assets turnover ratio, current assets turnover ratio, Short-term financial debt to total debt, Leverage Ratio, EBITDA margin is suggested; for improving higher profitability track fixed assets turnover ratio, current assets turnover ratio, Debt to equity ratio, Profit margin and Interest coverage ratio is suggested.

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A combined Short-Term Learning (STL) and Long-Term Learning (LTL) approach to solving mobile robot navigation problems is presented and tested in both real and simulated environments. The LTL consists of rapid simulations that use a Genetic Algorithm to derive diverse sets of behaviours. These sets are then transferred to an idiotypic Artificial Immune System (AIS), which forms the STL phase, and the system is said to be seeded. The combined LTL-STL approach is compared with using STL only, and with using a handdesigned controller. In addition, the STL phase is tested when the idiotypic mechanism is turned off. The results provide substantial evidence that the best option is the seeded idiotypic system, i.e. the architecture that merges LTL with an idiotypic AIS for the STL. They also show that structurally different environments can be used for the two phases without compromising transferability.

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Introduction: Truncus arteriosus with intact ventricular septum is a rare and unique variant of persistent truncus arteriosus (PTA) which usually presents with central cyanosis and congestive heart failure in neonate and early infancy. Associated cardiac and non-cardiac anomalies may affect morbidity and mortality of these patients. Case Presentation: We describe clinical presentation, echocardiography and angiographic features of a 7-month old boy with PTA and intact ventricular septum who underwent surgical repair of the anomaly at our institution. Operative findings, surgical procedure and short-term outcome are reported. Conclusions: While our patient had systemic pulmonary arterial pressure at the time of complete surgical repair, it was improved after surgery.

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The ten year obesity prevention framework, A Fitter Future for All 2012-2022, was launched in 9th March 2012. It takes a cross-sectoral, cross-departmental approach to preventing and addressing obesity through encouraging and supporting people to eat healthily and participate in physical activity. Initial short-term outcomes where developed for the period 2012-2015 – to fit alongside the then Programme for Government. This document provides a final update and a summary report of all the activities undertaken during this period.

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The group of 65-year-olds is becoming more numerous and with greater needs for health care. So, is necessary the reflection about new models of provision, organization, and allocation of health resources. According to the United Nations Organization, 2015, in 2050 elderly people will reach two million people (20% of the world’s population), what mean that the number of people over 60 years old will exceed a population of young people under 15 years. Parallel to aging, less healthy lifestyles have contributed to the prevalence of chronic diseases, especially cerebrovascular diseases. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus are risk factors and increase predisposition to other diseases. With aging, there is an increased risk for developing chronic, oncological and degenerative diseases, which account for more than 50% of the burden of diseases, with profound implications on independency, use of health care and services.

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The sugarcane in Brazil is passing through a management transition that is leading to the abolition of pre-harvest burning. Without burning, large amounts of sugarcane trash is generated, and there is a discussion regarding the utilization of this biomass in the industry versus keeping it in the field to improve soil quality. To study the effects of the trash removal on soil quality, we established an experimental sugarcane plantation with different levels of trash over the soil (0%, 50% and 100% of the original trash deposition) and analyzed the structure of the bacterial and fungal community as the bioindicators of impacts. The soil DNA was extracted, and the microbial community was screened by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis in two different seasons. Our results suggest that there are no effects from the different levels of trash on the soil chemistry and soil bacterial community. However, the fungal community was significantly impacted, and after twelve months, the community presented different structures among the treatments.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of inclusion or non-inclusion of short lactations and cow (CGG) and/or dam (DGG) genetic group on the genetic evaluation of 305-day milk yield (MY305), age at first calving (AFC), and first calving interval (FCI) of Girolando cows. Covariance components were estimated by the restricted maximum likelihood method in an animal model of single trait analyses. The heritability estimates for MY305, AFC, and FCI ranged from 0.23 to 0.29, 0.40 to 0.44, and 0.13 to 0.14, respectively, when short lactations were not included, and from 0.23 to 0.28, 0.39 to 0.43, and 0.13 to 0.14, respectively, when short lactations were included. The inclusion of short lactations caused little variation in the variance components and heritability estimates of traits, but their non-inclusion resulted in the re-ranking of animals. Models with CGG or DGG fixed effects had higher heritability estimates for all traits compared with models that consider these two effects simultaneously. We recommend using the model with fixed effects of CGG and inclusion of short lactations for the genetic evaluation of Girolando cattle.