Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

Are clinical documents optimised for patient safety? A critical analysis of patient safety outcomes using the EDA error model

Iatrogenic errors and patient safety in clinical processes are an increasing concern. The quality of process information in hardcopy or electronic form can heavily influence clinical behaviour and decision making errors. Little work has been undertaken to assess the safety impact of clinical process planning documents guiding the clinical actions and decisions. This paper investigates the clinical process documents used in elective surgery and their impact on latent and active clinical errors. Eight clinicians from a large health trust underwent extensive semi- structured interviews to understand their use of clinical documents, and their perceived impact on errors and patient safety. Samples of the key types of document used were analysed. Theories of latent organisational and active errors from the literature were combined with the EDA semiotics model of behaviour and decision making to propose the EDA Error Model. This model enabled us to identify perceptual, evaluation, knowledge and action error types and approaches to reducing their causes. The EDA error model was then used to analyse sample documents and identify error sources and controls. Types of knowledge artefact structures used in the documents were identified and assessed in terms of safety impact. This approach was combined with analysis of the questionnaire findings using existing error knowledge from the literature. The results identified a number of document and knowledge artefact issues that give rise to latent and active errors and also issues concerning medical culture and teamwork together with recommendations for further work.

Predicting outcomes following cognitive behavior therapy in child anxiety disorders: the influence of genetic, demographic and clinical information

Background. Within a therapeutic gene by environment (GxE) framework, we recently demonstrated that variation in the Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism; 5HTTLPR and marker rs6330 in Nerve Growth Factor gene; NGF is associated with poorer outcomes following cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for child anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to explore one potential means of extending the translational reach of G×E data in a way that may be clinically informative. We describe a ‘risk-index’ approach combining genetic, demographic and clinical data and test its ability to predict diagnostic outcome following CBT in anxious children. Method. DNA and clinical data were collected from 384 children with a primary anxiety disorder undergoing CBT. We tested our risk model in five cross-validation training sets. Results. In predicting treatment outcome, six variables had a minimum mean beta value of 0.5: 5HTTLPR, NGF rs6330, gender, primary anxiety severity, comorbid mood disorder and comorbid externalising disorder. A risk index (range 0-8) constructed from these variables had moderate predictive ability (AUC = .62-.69) in this study. Children scoring high on this index (5-8) were approximately three times as likely to retain their primary anxiety disorder at follow-up as compared to those children scoring 2 or less. Conclusion. Significant genetic, demographic and clinical predictors of outcome following CBT for anxiety-disordered children were identified. Combining these predictors within a risk-index could be used to identify which children are less likely to be diagnosis free following CBT alone or thus require longer or enhanced treatment. The ‘risk-index’ approach represents one means of harnessing the translational potential of G×E data.

Histological Outcomes on the Development of New Space-making Devices for Maxillary Sinus Floor Augmentation

Background: Previous studies have pointed out that the mere elevation of the maxillary sinus membrane promotes bone formation without the use of augmentation materials. Purpose: This experimental study aimed at evaluating if the two-stage procedure for sinus floor augmentation could benefit from the use of a space-making device in order to increase the bone volume to enable later implant installation with good primary stability. Materials and Methods: Six male tufted capuchin primates (Cebus apella) were subjected to extraction of the three premolars and the first molar on both sides of the maxilla to create an edentulous area. The sinuses were opened using the lateral bone-wall window technique, and the membrane was elevated. One resorbable space-making device was inserted in each maxillary sinus, and the bone window was returned in place. The animals were euthanatized after 6 months, and biopsy blocks containing the whole maxillary sinus and surrounding soft tissues were prepared for ground sections. Results: The histological examination of the specimens showed bone formation in contact with both the schneiderian membrane and the device in most cases even when the device was displaced. The process of bone formation indicates that this technique is potentially useful for two-stage sinus floor augmentation. The lack of stabilization of the device within the sinus demands further improvement of space-makers for predictable bone augmentation. Conclusions: It is concluded that (1) the device used in this study did not trigger any important inflammatory reaction; (2) when the sinus membrane was elevated, bone formation was a constant finding; and (3) an ideal space-making device should be stable and elevate the membrane to ensure a maintained connection between the membrane and the secluded space.

Molecular characterization of human erythrovirus B19 strains obtained from patients with several clinical presentations in the Amazon region of Brazil

Background: Human erythrovirus B 19, endemic in the Amazon region since 1990, is associated with a wide spectrum of clinical presentations. Objectives: To assess the prevalence of erythrovirus B 19 infection and the relative frequency of erythrovirus B 19 genotypes in patients in the Amazon region with various clinical presentations. Study design: A total of 487 clinical samples obtained from patients with symptoms suggestive of erythrovirus infection were tested using specific IgM and IgG antibody assays (ELISA) and PCR for viral DNA detection. Partial VP1 and VP2 regions were sequenced and genotyped by phylogenetic reconstruction. Results: B 19 DNA was detected in 117 (24%) of 487 samples. Of these, 106 (91%) isolates were genotype I and II (9%) were genotype 3. No genotype 2 was found. Genotype I had three clusters (A1, A2 and 13) and all genotype 3 sequences were subtype 3b. All patients with hernatological disorders within cluster B of genotype I were infected by the sarne B 19 lineage, suggesting that this lineage of B 19 may have been transmitted via transfusion of blood products. Conclusion: We reported two genotypes, I and 3b, with three genotype I clusters co-circulating in the Amazon region during the past 10 years. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Free Trade Area of the Americas : positive outcomes for Brazil and the global community

This document discusses Brazil and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Since the FTAA is only a proposed agreement and trade apparatus at the moment, NAFTA is used as a working model and its influence on and benefit for Mexico and that country’s economy.

Periodontal diseases in a representative urban population in south Brazil

Background and Aims: There is little information about the epidemiology and risk factors of periodontal diseases in Latin America in general, and Brazil in particular. The principal aims of this study were to: 1) describe the prevalence and severity of periodontal attachment loss and gingival recession, and to assess the contribution of demographic, behavioral, and environmental exposures to the occurrence of periodontal disease outcomes in a sample representative of the urban population in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in south Brazil; and 2) report the epidemiology and risk indicators of aggressive periodontitis in this population. Methods: A representative sample consisting of 1,586 subjects 14-103 years of age (mean 38 y) and comprising 45.3% males and 54.7% females was selected using a multi-stage, probability, cluster sampling strategy. The subjects were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and underwent a full-mouth, six sites per tooth clinical examination in a mobile examination center. Results: Moderate and severe clinical attachment loss and gingival recession were widespread among adults in this population. The prevalence and extent of attachment loss ³5 and ³7 mm were 79% and 52% subjects, and 36% and 16% teeth; and for gingival recession ³3 mm and ³5 mm were 52% and 22% subjects, and 17% and 6% teeth, respectively. Aggressive periodontitis was diagnosed in 5.5% of subjects, which is significantly higher than the reported prevalence in most other populations. Among the main risk indicators for chronic as well as aggressive destructive periodontal diseases were: older age, low socioeconomic status, dental calculus, and smoking. Cigarette smoking accounted for an important part of periodontal disease burden, particularly in adults, and should be considered an important target in any prevention strategy aimed at reducing the burden of periodontal diseases. Partial recording methods consistently underestimated the prevalence of attachment loss in the population, and the extent of underestimation was dependent on the type of system used and the threshold of attachment loss. Conclusions: Destructive periodontal diseases are prevalent in this Brazilian population. Suitable disease prevention and health promotion programs should be established to improve the periodontal health in this population.

Brucellosis due to Brucella suis in a swine herd associated with a human clinical case in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Brucella suis has been recognized as the major etiological agent of human brucellosis in areas free from Brucella melitensis infection. However, with changes in swine management, the occurrence of swine brucellosis has decreased as has the human incidence of B. suis infection. A swine brucellosis outbreak within a herd from Jaboticabal (So Paulo, Brazil) was detected in July 2006. The herd comprised approximately 300 sows and 1,500 finishing animals. Many sows within this herd experienced abortions, while others exhibited vaginal discharge; three sows suffered posterior paralysis. Among 271 sows, 254 (93.7%) tested positive for brucellosis by complement fixation, and among 62 randomly bled finishing animals, 17 (27.4%) also tested positive. The B. suis biovar 1 was cultured from 14 aborted fetuses and six sows. Brucella was identified using routine methods. Fourteen farm workers were tested using agglutination tests, with three workers showing evidence of Brucella antibody titers. A 39-year-old woman, who worked with maternal pigs and had direct contact with aborted fetuses, presented an agglutinating titer of 480 IU/mL and displayed clinical signs of infection. Our findings suggest that despite a reduction of swine brucellosis throughout Brazil, B. suis infection still occurs, thereby posing a zoonotic risk.

Drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis clinical isolates from Brazil: Phenotypic and genotypic methods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Molecular typing and antifungal susceptibility of clinical sequential isolates of Cryptococcus neoformans from São Paulo State, Brazil

The antifungal susceptibility profiles and the genetic variability of 83 sequential clinical isolates of Cryptococcus neoformans, including four Cryptococcus gattii isolates, obtained from 38 São Paulo AIDS patients with cryptococcal meningitis were assessed by electrophoretic karyotyping and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. The majority of the Cryptococcus neoformans isolates were highly susceptible to amphotericin B and fluconazole. Twenty percent of the minimum inhibitory concentration values for amphotericin B varied from 0.5 to 1 mu g mL(-1). For fluconazole, 22% occurred in the range 8-16 mu g mL(-1). Sequential isolates from nine patients showed a trend towards lower susceptibility to fluconazole, flucytosine, itraconazole and amphotericin B. The results of molecular typing by electrophoretic karyotyping and RAPD analysis showed the presence of 22 electrophoretic karyotypes (EK) and 15 RAPD profiles that were highly correlated. Our results provided evidence for the occurrence of genetic changes in some strains associated with microevolution during the course of infection. We also observed both microevolution and simultaneous coinfection with two distinct Cryptococcus neoformans strains in one patient. In some patients, we found changed EK- and RAPD patterns in association with increased MIC values.

Genotyping, serotyping and determination of mating-type of Cryptococcus neoformans clinical isolates from São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

SEABATHER'S ERUPTION: A CLINICAL and EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY of 38 CASES IN SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL

Seabather's eruption (SBE) is an intensely itchy, papule-erythematous dermatitis that occurs predominantly in regions of the body covered by bathing costumes, after exposure to marine water. The planulae larvae of Linuche unguiculata scyphomedusae (thimble jellyfish) are the etiologic agent of the dermatitis, which is frequent in waters of Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Florida. The authors report 38 cases of SBE in the State of Santa Catarina (Southern region of Brazil), with emphasis on their clinical and epidemiological aspects, such as profile of victim, topography of the papules and conditions predisposing to the accident.