957 resultados para Climate, Dengue, Models, Projection, Scenarios
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Recent work, has produced a wealth of data concerning the chemical evolution of the Galactic bulge, both for stars and nebulae. Present theoretical models generally adopt it limited range of such constraints, frequenfly using it single chemical element (usually iron), which is not enough to describe it unambiguously. In this work, we take into account contraints involving,9 Many chemical elements as possible, basically obtained from bulge nebulae and stars. Our main goal is to show that different scenarios can describe, at least partially the abundance distribution and several dishuice-independent correlations for these objects . Three classes of models were developed. The first is it one-zone, single-infall model, the. Second is it one-zone, double-infall model and the third is a multizone, double-infall model. We show that a one-zone model with it single infall episode is able to reproduce some of the observational data, but the best results tire achieved using it multizone, double-infall model.
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Early American crania show a different morphological pattern from the one shared by late Native Americans. Although the origin of the diachronic morphological diversity seen on the continents is still debated, the distinct morphology of early Americans is well documented and widely dispersed. This morphology has been described extensively for South America, where larger samples are available. Here we test the hypotheses that the morphology of Early Americans results from retention of the morphological pattern of Late Pleistocene modern humans and that the occupation of the New World precedes the morphological differentiation that gave rise to recent Eurasian and American morphology. We compare Early American samples with European Upper Paleolithic skulls, the East Asian Zhoukoudian Upper Cave specimens and a series of 20 modern human reference crania. Canonical Analysis and Minimum Spanning Tree were used to assess the morphological affinities among the series, while Mantel and Dow-Cheverud tests based on Mahalanobis Squared Distances were used to test different evolutionary scenarios. Our results show strong morphological affinities among the early series irrespective of geographical origin, which together with the matrix analyses results favor the scenario of a late morphological differentiation of modern humans. We conclude that the geographic differentiation of modern human morphology is a late phenomenon that occurred after the initial settlement of the Americas. Am J Phys Anthropol 144:442-453, 2011. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Increasing efforts exist in integrating different levels of detail in models of the cardiovascular system. For instance, one-dimensional representations are employed to model the systemic circulation. In this context, effective and black-box-type decomposition strategies for one-dimensional networks are needed, so as to: (i) employ domain decomposition strategies for large systemic models (1D-1D coupling) and (ii) provide the conceptual basis for dimensionally-heterogeneous representations (1D-3D coupling, among various possibilities). The strategy proposed in this article works for both of these two scenarios, though the several applications shown to illustrate its performance focus on the 1D-1D coupling case. A one-dimensional network is decomposed in such a way that each coupling point connects two (and not more) of the sub-networks. At each of the M connection points two unknowns are defined: the flow rate and pressure. These 2M unknowns are determined by 2M equations, since each sub-network provides one (non-linear) equation per coupling point. It is shown how to build the 2M x 2M non-linear system with arbitrary and independent choice of boundary conditions for each of the sub-networks. The idea is then to solve this non-linear system until convergence, which guarantees strong coupling of the complete network. In other words, if the non-linear solver converges at each time step, the solution coincides with what would be obtained by monolithically modeling the whole network. The decomposition thus imposes no stability restriction on the choice of the time step size. Effective iterative strategies for the non-linear system that preserve the black-box character of the decomposition are then explored. Several variants of matrix-free Broyden`s and Newton-GMRES algorithms are assessed as numerical solvers by comparing their performance on sub-critical wave propagation problems which range from academic test cases to realistic cardiovascular applications. A specific variant of Broyden`s algorithm is identified and recommended on the basis of its computer cost and reliability. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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In Sweden, 90% of the solar heating systems are solar domestic hot water and heating systems (SDHW&H), so called combisystems. These generally supply most of the domestic hot water needs during the summer and have enough capacity to supply some energy to the heating system during spring and autumn. This paper describes a standard Swedish combisystem and how the output from it varies with heating load, climate within Sweden, and how it can be increased with improved system design. A base case is defined using the standard combi- system, a modern Swedish single family house and the climate of Stockholm. Using the simulation program Trnsys, parametric studies have been performed on the base case and improved system designs. The solar fraction could be increased from 17.1% for the base case to 22.6% for the best system design, given the same system size, collector type and load. A short analysis of the costs of changed system design is given, showing that payback times for additional investment are from 5-8 years. Measurements on system components in the laboratory have been used to verify the simulation models used. More work is being carried out in order to find even better system designs, and further improvements in system performance are expected.
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Climate change as a phenomenon will imply new risks for the ski industry. Intergovernmental Panal on Climate Change presents three future scenarios, during the periods between 1990-2100, in forms of increased temperatures, a rise in the sea level and seasonal variations, variables out of which two have direct impacts on the ski industry. The aim for this study was to explore and compare attitudes towards climate change between five ski resorts located in mid-south of Sweden. This was done through in depth interviews in both face to face and by telephone. The result of the study was that all the chosen ski resorts were aware of climate change as a phenomenon but have not yet recognized its consequences. All ski resorts use methods to maintain skiing i.e. artificial snow production though not because of climate change.
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GCM outputs such as CMIP3 are available via network access to PCMDI web site. Meteorological researchers are familiar with the usage of the GCM data, but the most of researchers other than meteorology such as agriculture, civil engineering, etc., and general people are not familiar with the GCM. There are some difficulties to use GCM; 1) to download the enormous quantity of data, 2) to understand the GCM methodology, parameters and grids. In order to provide a quick access way to GCM, Climate Change Information Database has been developed. The purpose of the database is to bridge the users and meteorological specialists and to facilitate the understanding the climate changes. The resolution of the data is unified, and climate change amount or factors for each meteorological element are provided from the database. All data in the database are interpolated on the same 80km mesh. Available data are the present-future projections of 27 GCMs, 16 meteorological elements (precipitation, temperature, etc.), 3 emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1). We showed the summary of this database to residents in Toyama prefecture and measured the effect of showing and grasped the image for the climate change by using the Internet questionary survey. The persons who feel a climate change at the present tend to feel the additional changes in the future. It is important to show the monitoring results of climate change for a citizen and promote the understanding for the climate change that had already occurred. It has been shown that general images for the climate change promote to understand the need of the mitigation, and that it is important to explain about the climate change that might occur in the future even if it did not occur at the present in order to have people recognize widely the need of the adaptation.
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When an accurate hydraulic network model is available, direct modeling techniques are very straightforward and reliable for on-line leakage detection and localization applied to large class of water distribution networks. In general, this type of techniques based on analytical models can be seen as an application of the well-known fault detection and isolation theory for complex industrial systems. Nonetheless, the assumption of single leak scenarios is usually made considering a certain leak size pattern which may not hold in real applications. Upgrading a leak detection and localization method based on a direct modeling approach to handle multiple-leak scenarios can be, on one hand, quite straightforward but, on the other hand, highly computational demanding for large class of water distribution networks given the huge number of potential water loss hotspots. This paper presents a leakage detection and localization method suitable for multiple-leak scenarios and large class of water distribution networks. This method can be seen as an upgrade of the above mentioned method based on a direct modeling approach in which a global search method based on genetic algorithms has been integrated in order to estimate those network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks. This is an inverse / direct modeling method which tries to take benefit from both approaches: on one hand, the exploration capability of genetic algorithms to estimate network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks and on the other hand, the straightforwardness and reliability offered by the availability of an accurate hydraulic model to assess those close network areas around the estimated hotspots. The application of the resulting method in a DMA of the Barcelona water distribution network is provided and discussed. The obtained results show that leakage detection and localization under multiple-leak scenarios may be performed efficiently following an easy procedure.
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The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Density functional calculation at B3LYP level was employed to study the surface oxygen vacancies and the doping process of Co, Cu and Zn on SnO2 (110) surface models. Large clusters, based on (SnO2)(15) models, were selected to simulate the oxidized (Sn15O30), half-reduced (Sn15O29) and the reduced (Sn15O28) surfaces. The doping process was considered on the reduced surfaces: Sn13Co2O28, Sn13Cu2O28 and Sn13Zn2O28. The results are analyzed and discussed based on a calculation of the energy levels along the bulk band gap region, determined by a projection of the monoelectron level structure on to the atomic basis set and by the density of states. This procedure enables one to distinguish the states coming from the bulk, the oxygen vacancies and the doping process, on passing from an oxidized to a reduced surface, missing bridge oxygen atoms generate electronic levels along the band gap region, associated with 5s/5p of four-/five-fold Sn and 2p of in-plane O centers located on the exposed surface, which is in agreement with previous theoretical and experimental investigations. The formation energy of one and two oxygen vacancies is 3.0 and 3.9 eV, respectively. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.
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In this work we present nonlinear models in two-dimensional space-time of two interacting scalar fields in the Lorentz and CPT violating scenarios. We discuss the soliton solutions for these models as well as the question of stability for them. This is done by generalizing a model recently published by Barreto and collaborators and also by getting new solutions for the model introduced by them.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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We construct non-relativistic Lagrangian field models by enforcing Galilean covariance with a (4, 1) Minkowski manifold followed by a projection onto the (3, 1) Newtonian spacetime. We discuss scalar, Fermi and gauge fields, as well as interactions between these fields, preparing the stage for their quantization. We show that the Galilean covariant formalism provides an elegant construction of the Lagrangians which describe the electric and magnetic limits of Galilean electromagnetism. Similarly we obtain non-relativistic limits for the Proca field. Then we study Dirac Lagrangians and retrieve the Levy-Leblond wave equations when the Fermi field interacts with an Abelian gauge field.
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VAMP (variable-mass particle) scenarios, in which the mass of the cold dark matter particles is a function of the scalar field responsible for the present acceleration of the Universe, have been proposed as a solution to the cosmic coincidence problem, since in the attractor regime both dark energy and dark matter scale in the same way. We find that only a narrow region in parameter space leads to models with viable values for the Hubble constant and dark energy density today. In the allowed region, the dark energy density starts to dominate around the present epoch and consequently such models cannot solve the coincidence problem. We show that the age of the Universe in this scenario is considerably higher than the age for noncoupled dark energy models, and conclude that more precise independent measurements of the age of the Universe would be useful in distinguishing between coupled and noncoupled dark energy models.