The ν2, 2ν2, 3ν2, ν4 and ν2+ν4 bands of 15NH3

The ir absorption of gaseous 15NH3 between 510 and 3040 cm−1 was recorded with a resolution of 0.06 cm−1. The ν2, 2ν2, 3ν2, ν4, and ν2 + ν4 bands were measured and analyzed on the basis of the vibration-rotation Hamiltonian developed by V. Špirko, J. M. R. Stone, and D. Papoušek (J. Mol. Spectrosc. 60, 159–178 (1976)). A set of effective molecular parameters for the ν2 = 1, 2, 3 states was derived, which reproduced the transition frequencies within the accuracy of the experimental measurements. For ν4 and ν2 + ν4 bands the standard deviation of the calculated spectrum is about four times larger than the measurements accuracy: a similar result was found for ν4 in 14NH3 by Š. Urban et al. (J. Mol. Spectrosc. 79, 455–495 (1980)). This result suggests that the present treatment takes into account only the most significant part of the rovibration interaction in the doubly degenerate vibrational states of ammonia.

Vibration-rotation spectra of nitrous acid, HONO

High-resolution Fourier-transform infrared spectra have been recorded and analyzed for the nu4, nu5, and nu6 fundamental bands of trans-HONO, and for the nu4 fundamental of cis-HONO. The spectral resolution was better than 0.01/cm, and the rotational structure has been analyzed to give improved ground-state and excited-state rotational constants, with a standard deviation of the fit to the observed line positions of around 0.0006/cm. Two Coriolis interactions have been analyzed between the nu5 and nu6 bands of trans-HONO.

Simultaneous analysis of v1, v4, 2v2, v2+v5, and 2v5 bands of 12CH3F

The Fourier-transform spectrum of CH3F from 2800 to 3100 cm−1, obtained by Guelachvili in Orsay at a resolution of about 0.003 cm−1, was analyzed. The effective Hamiltonian used contained all symmetry allowed interactions up to second order in the Amat-Nielsen classification, together with selected third-order terms, amongst the set of nine vibrational basis functions represented by the states ν1(A1), ν4(E), 2ν2(A1), ν2 + ν5(E), 2ν50(A1), and 2ν5±2(E). A number of strong Fermi and Coriolis resonances are involved. The vibrational Hamiltonian matrix was not factorized beyond the requirements of symmetry. A total of 59 molecular parameters were refined in a simultaneous least-squares analysis to over 1500 upper-state energy levels for J ≤ 20 with a standard deviation of 0.013 cm−1. Although the standard deviation remains an order of magnitude greater than the precision of the measurements, this work breaks new ground in the simultaneous analysis of interacting symmetric top vibrational levels, in terms of the number of interacting vibrational states and the number of parameters in the Hamiltonian.

Vibration-rotation spectra of deuterated nitrous acid, DONO

High-resolution Fourier transform infrared spectra have been recorded and analyzed for the ν3, ν4, ν5, and ν6 fundamental bands of trans-DONO, and for the ν4 fundamental of cis-DONO. The spectral resolution was better than 0.01 cm−1, and the bands have been fitted using an asymmetric top Hamiltonian with a standard deviation of around 0.0006 cm−1.

Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

The NAO troposphere–stratosphere connection

Using monthly mean data, daily data, and theoretical arguments, relationships between surface pressure variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), tropopause height, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex are established. An increase in the NAO index leads to a stronger stratospheric vortex, about 4 days later, as a result of increased equatorward refraction of upward-propagating Rossby waves. At tropopause level the effects of the enhanced NAO index and stratospheric polar vortex are opposite, resulting in a lower tropopause over Iceland and a higher tropopause over the Arctic. The raising of the Arctic tropopause leads to a stretching and spinup of the tropospheric column and is therefore associated with a lowering of the surface pressure near the North Pole. For monthly mean data it is found that a standard deviation increase in the NAO index is associated with a 10% increase in the strength of the stratospheric vortex, as measured by potential vorticity at 500 K. A simple theoretical model predicts that this is associated with about 300-m elevation of the Arctic tropopause, as is observed, and a 5-hPa lowering of the surface pressure at the North Pole. The effects of the spinup of the tropospheric column may project on the NAO pattern so that the stratosphere acts as an integrator of the NAO index.

Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31mWm-2) compared to SHIP (24 mWm-2) and AIR (17 mWm-2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(±13)(one standard deviation) mWm-2) and AIR (+6(±5) mWm-2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(±10) mWm-2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Quantifying uncertainty in the simulation of crop-climate processes

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (λ, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to he stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase H and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intra-individual variation of serum prostate specific antigen levels in men with benign prostate biopsies

To determine the intra-individual (physiological) variation of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements in men after a benign prostatic biopsy. Sixty-four men were prospectively assessed, all of whom had a benign prostatic biopsy within the preceding 13 months. The degree of intra-individual variability was established by calculating the coefficient of variation on four PSA levels obtained from each patient weekly over a month. Six patients were subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer and their data are presented separately. In the remaining 58 patients the median (range) individual mean PSA value was 6.3 (0.5-34.1) ng/mL. The median (range) coefficient of variation within the group was 9.5 (2.4-76.1)%. There was a clear linear relationship between mean PSA level and the standard deviation. In 48 of the 63 patients analysed, the coefficient of variation for serum PSA values in the group as a whole was greater than the variation claimed for the assay technique. The significance of the linear relationship between PSA and the standard deviation is discussed, with particular reference to those men who had a benign prostate biopsy.

Weaning preterm infants: a randomised controlled trial

Objective: To assess the effect on growth and iron status in preterm infants of a specially devised weaning strategy compared with current best practices in infant feeding. The preterm weaning strategy recommended the early onset of weaning and the use of foods with a higher energy and protein content than standard milk formula, and foods that are rich sources of iron and zinc. Subjects and design: In a blinded, controlled study, 68 preterm infants (mean (SD) birth weight 1470 (430) g and mean (SD) gestational age 31.3 (2.9) weeks) were randomised to either the preterm weaning strategy group (n = 37) or a current best practice control group (n = 31), from hospital discharge until 1 year gestation corrected age (GCA). Main outcome measures: Weight, supine length, occipitofrontal head circumference, and intakes of energy, protein, and minerals were determined at 0, 6, and 12 months GCA. Levels of haemoglobin, serum iron, and serum ferritin were assayed at 0 and 6 months GCA. Results: Significant positive effects of treatment included: greater increase in standard deviation length scores and length growth velocity; increased intake of energy, protein, and carbohydrate at 6 months GCA and iron at 12 months GCA; increased haemoglobin and serum iron levels at 6 months GCA. Conclusions: The preterm weaning strategy significantly influenced dietary intakes with consequent beneficial effects on growth in length and iron status. This strategy should be adopted as the basis of feeding guidelines for preterm infants after hospital discharge. School of Applied Statistics Faculty of Life Sciences

Effect of minerals on casein micelle stability of cows' milk

The effects of minerals on casein micelle stability of individual cows' milk, throughout a complete lactation, were investigated. Calcium and calcium ions, magnesium, phosphorus, sodium, potassium and citrate contents were analysed, together with the following physical properties of milk; pH, ethanol stability, rennet clotting time and coagulum firmness. There was an inverse non-linear relationship between free calcium ion concentration and ethanol stability (ES; r=0.84). Rennet coagulation time showed a weaker relationship with free calcium ion concentration (r=0.44) but a stronger relationship with pH (r=0.66). In addition, samples containing higher amounts of free calcium ions produced a firmer gel. Citrate in natural samples acts as a stabilizing factor, as it slightly improves milk stability. Potassium, on the other hand, exhibited a negative correlation, but only with rennet clotting time (r=-0.52). Throughout lactation the average values were; free Ca 21 concentration 1.88 mm,, pH 6.63, ES 83.2% and clotting time 13.6 min. The equilibrium relationship between pH and free Ca2+ concentration was investigated by adjusting milk pH from 5.9 to 7.1, using acid and alkali. There was a good inverse linear relationship between pH and log (free Ca 21) for individual milk samples, with a gradient of -0.62 and a standard deviation of 0.042.

Influence of environmental stress on distributions of times to first division in Escherichia coli populations, as determined by digital-image analysis of individual cells

The distributions of times to first cell division were determined for populations of Escherichia coli stationary-phase cells inoculated onto agar media. This was accomplished by using automated analysis of digital images of individual cells growing on agar and calculation of the "box area ratio." Using approximately 300 cells per experiment, the mean time to first division and standard deviation for cells grown in liquid medium at 37 degrees C and inoculated on agar and incubated at 20 degrees C were determined as 3.0 h and 0.7 h, respectively. Distributions were observed to tail toward the higher values, but no definitive model distribution was identified. Both preinoculation stress by heating cultures at 50 degrees C and postinoculation stress by growth in the presence of higher concentrations of NaCl increased mean times to first division. Both stresses also resulted in an increase in the spread of the distributions that was proportional to the mean division time, the coefficient of variation being constant at approximately 0.2 in all cases. The "relative division time," which is the time to first division for individual cells expressed in terms of the cell size doubling time, was used as measure of the "work to be done" to prepare for cell division. Relative division times were greater for heat-stressed cells than for those growing under osmotic stress.