The use of a multiple criteria decision analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of landscape and habitat enhancement mechanisms: an example from the South Downs

A range of funding schemes and policy instruments exist to effect enhancement of the landscapes and habitats of the UK. While a number of assessments of these mechanisms have been conducted, little research has been undertaken to compare both quantitatively and qualitatively their relative effectiveness across a range of criteria. It is argued that few tools are available for such a multi-faceted evaluation of effectiveness. A form of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is justified and utilized as a framework in which to evaluate the effectiveness of nine mechanisms in relation to the protection of existing areas of chalk grassland and the creation of new areas in the South Downs of England. These include established schemes, such as the Countryside Stewardship and Environmentally Sensitive Area Schemes, along with other less common mechanisms, for example, land purchase and tender schemes. The steps involved in applying an MCDA to evaluate such mechanisms are identified and the process is described. Quantitative results from the comparison of the effectiveness of different mechanisms are presented, although the broader aim of the paper is that of demonstrating the performance of MCDA as a tool for measuring the effectiveness of mechanisms aimed at landscape and habitat enhancement.

Production risk, pesticide use and GM crop technology in South Africa

Technology involving genetic modification of crops has the potential to make a contribution to rural poverty reduction in many developing countries. Thus far, pesticide-producing Bacillus thuringensis (Bt) varieties of cotton have been the main GM crops under cultivation in developing nations. Several studies have evaluated the farm-level performance of Bt varieties in comparison to conventional ones by estimating production technology, and have mostly found Bt technology to be very successful in raising output and/or reducing pesticide input. However, the production risk properties of this technology have not been studied, although they are likely to be important to risk-averse smallholders. This study investigates the output risk aspects of Bt technology by estimating two 'flexible risk' production function models allowing technology to independently affect the mean and higher moments of output. The first is the popular Just-Pope model and the second is a more general 'damage control' flexible risk model. The models are applied to cross-sectional data on South African smallholders, some of whom used Bt varieties. The results show no evidence that a 'risk-reduction' claim can be made for Bt technology. Indeed, there is some evidence to support the notion that the technology increases output risk, implying that simple (expected) profit computations used in past evaluations may overstate true benefits.

Pesticide productivity and transgenic cotton technology: The South African smallholder case

This paper empirically investigates how the productivity of pesticide differs in Bt versus non-Bt technology for South African cotton smallholders, and what the implications for pesticide use levels are in the two technologies. This is accomplished by applying a damage control framework to farm-level data from Makhathini flats, KwaZulu-Natal. Contrary to findings elsewhere, notably China, that farmers over-use pesticides and that transgenic technology benefits farmers by enabling large reductions in pesticide use, the econometric evidence here indicates that non-Bt smallholders in South Africa under-use pesticide. Thus, the main potential contribution of the new technology is to enable them to realise lost productivity resulting from under-use. By providing a natural substitute for pesticide, the Bt technology enables the smallholders to circumvent credit and labour constraints associated with pesticide application. Thus, the same technology that greatly reduces pesticide applications but only mildly affects yields, when used by large-scale farmers in China and elsewhere, benefits South-African smallholder farmers primarily via a yield-enhancing effect.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Diversification of a large genus in a continental biodiversity hotspot: temporal and spatial origin of Muraltia (Polygalaceae) in the Cape of South Africa

Phylogenetic relationships in the largely South African genus Muraltia (Polygalaceae) are assessed based on DNA sequence data (nuclear ribosomal ITS, plastid atpB-rbcL spacer, trnL intron, and trnL-F spacer) for 73 of the 117 currently recognized species in the genus. The previously recognised subgenus Muraltia is monophyletic, but the South African endemic genus Nylandtia is embedded in Muraltia subgenus Psiloclada. Subgenus Muraltia is found to be sister to subgenus Psiloclada. Estimates show the beginning of diversification of the two subgenera in the early Miocene (Psiloclada, 19.3+/-3.4 Ma; Muraltia, 21.0+/-3.5 Ma) pre-dating the establishment of the Benguela current (intermittent in the middle to late Oligocene and markedly intensifying in the late Miocene), and summer-dry climate in the Cape region. However, the later increase in species numbers is contemporaneous with these climatic phenomena. Results of dispersal-vicariance analyses indicate that major clades in Muraltia diversified from the southwestern and northwestern Cape, where most of the species are found today.

Ecology of sponge assemblages (Porifera) in the Wakatobi region, south-east Sulawesi, Indonesia: richness and abundance

The influence of sedimentation, depth and substratum angle on sponge assemblages in the Wakatobi region, south-eastern Sulawesi, Indonesia was considered. Sponge assemblages were sampled from two reef localities. The first reef (Sampela) was highly impacted by high sedimentation rates with fine sediment particles that settle slowly, while the second (Hoga) experienced only fast settling coarse sediment with lower overall sedimentation rates. Sponge assemblages were sampled (area occupied and numbers) on the reef fiat (0 m) and at 5 (reef crest), 10 and 15 m (15 m at Hoga only). Some significant (P < 0.001) differences were observed in the area occupied and the number of sponge patches between surface angles and sites. Significantly lower (t > 4.61, df = 9, P < 0.001) sponge numbers, percentage cover and richness were associated with the reef flat at both sites compared with all other depths at each site, with the exception of abundance of sponges on the reef flat at Sampela, which was much greater than at any other depth sampled. Species richness increased with depth at both sites but differences between surface angles were only recorded at Sampela, with higher species richness being found on vertical, inclined and horizontal surfaces respectively A total of 100 sponge species (total area sampled 52.5 m(2)) was reported from the two sites, with 58 species found at Sampela and 71 species at Hoga (41% of species shared). Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) indicated differences in assemblage structure between sites and most depth intervals, but not substratum angles. A number of biological (e.g. competition and predation) and physical (e.g. sedimentation and aerial exposure) factors were considered to control sponge abundance and richness. Unexpectedly a significant (F-1,F-169 = 148.98, P < 0.001) positive linear relationship was found between sponge density and area occupied. In areas of high sponge coverage, the number of patches was also high, possibly due to fragmentation of large sponges produced as a result of predation and physical disturbance. The MDS results were also the same whether sponge numbers or percentage cover estimates were used, suggesting that although these different approaches yield different sorts of information, the same assemblage structure can be identified.

Symposium on 'nutrition interventions in high-risk groups' - CVD risk in South Asians: the importance of defining adiposity and influence of dietary polyunsaturated fat

The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetS), CVD and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is known to be higher in populations from the Indian subcontinent compared with the general UK population. While identification of this increased risk is crucial to allow for effective treatment, there is controversy over the applicability of diagnostic criteria, and particularly measures of adiposity in ethnic minorities. Diagnostic cut-offs for BMI and waist circumference have been largely derived from predominantly white Caucasian populations and, therefore, have been inappropriate and not transferable to Asian groups. Many Asian populations, particularly South Asians, have a higher total and central adiposity for a similar body weight compared with matched Caucasians and greater CVD risk associated with a lower BMI. Although the causes of CVD and T2D are multi-factorial, diet is thought to make a substantial contribution to the development of these diseases. Low dietary intakes and tissue levels of long-chain (LC) n-3 PUFA in South Asian populations have been linked to high-risk abnormalities in the MetS. Conversely, increasing the dietary intake of LC n-3 PUFA in South Asians has proved an effective strategy for correcting such abnormalities as dyslipidaemia in the MetS. Appropriate diagnostic criteria that include a modified definition of adiposity must be in place to facilitate the early detection and thus targeted treatment of increased risk in ethnic minorities.

Post-partum depression and infant growth in a South African peri-urban settlement

Aim: To examine the association between maternal post-natal depression and infant growth. Background: Infant growth has recently been shown, in two studies from South Asia, to be adversely affected by maternal depression in the early post-partum period. It is uncertain whether a similar association obtains in developing countries outside Asia. Method: A sample of 147 mother–infant dyads was recruited from a peri-urban settlement outside Cape Town and seen at 2 and 18 months post partum. Results: No clear effect of post-partum depression on infant growth was found. Although maternal depression at 2 months was found to be associated with lower infant weight at 18 months, when birthweight was considered this effect disappeared. Conclusions: Possible explanations for the non-replication of the South Asian findings are considered.

The mother-infant relationship and infant attachment in a south African peri-urban settlement

A sample of 147 mother-infant dyads was recruited from a peri-urban settlement outside Cape Town and seen at 2- and 18-months postpartum. At 18 months, 61.9% of the infants were rated as securely attached (B); 4.1% as avoidant (A); 8.2% as resistant (C); and 25.8% disorganized (D). Postpartum depression at 2 months, and indices of poor parenting at both 2 and 18 months, were associated with insecure infant attachment. The critical 2-month predictor variables for insecure infant attachment were maternal intrusiveness and maternal remoteness, and early maternal depression. When concurrent maternal sensitivity was considered, the quality of the early mother-infant relationship remained important, but maternal depression was no longer predictive. Cross-cultural differences and consistencies in the development of attachment are discussed.

Improving quality of mother-infant relationship and infant attachment in socioeconomically deprived community in South Africa: randomised controlled trial

Objective To assess the efficacy of an intervention designed to improve the mother-infant relationship and security of infant attachment in a South African peri-urban settlement with marked adverse socioeconomic circumstances. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting Khayelitsha, a peri-urban settlement in South Africa. Participants 449 pregnant women. Interventions The intervention was delivered from late pregnancy and for six months postpartum. Women were visited in their homes by previously untrained lay community workers who provided support and guidance in parenting. The purpose of the intervention was to promote sensitive and responsive parenting and secure infant attachment to the mother. Women in the control group received no therapeutic input from the research team. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes: quality of mother-infant interactions at six and 12 months postpartum; infant attachment security at 18 months. Secondary outcome: maternal depression at six and 12 months. Results The intervention was associated with significant benefit to the mother-infant relationship. At both six and 12 months, compared with control mothers, mothers in the intervention group were significantly more sensitive (6 months: mean difference=0.77 (SD 0.37), t=2.10, P<0.05, d=0.24; 12 months: mean difference=0.42 (0.18), t=-2.04, P<0.05, d=0.26) and less intrusive (6 months: mean difference=0.68 (0.36), t=2.28, P<0.05, d=0.26; 12 months: mean difference=-1.76 (0.86), t=2.28, P<0.05, d=0.24) in their interactions with their infants. The intervention was also associated with a higher rate of secure infant attachments at 18 months (116/156 (74%) v 102/162 (63%); Wald=4.74, odds ratio=1.70, P<0.05). Although the prevalence of maternal depressive disorder was not significantly reduced, the intervention had a benefit in terms of maternal depressed mood at six months (z=2.05, P=0.04) on the Edinburgh postnatal depression scale). Conclusions The intervention, delivered by local lay women, had a significant positive impact on the quality of the mother-infant relationship and on security of infant attachment, factors known to predict favourable child development. If these effects persist, and if they are replicated, this intervention holds considerable promise for use in the developing world. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25664149.

Prevalence of disorders of the autism spectrum in a population cohort of children in South Thames: the special needs and autism project (SNAP)

Background Recent reports have suggested that the prevalence of autism and related spectrum disorders (ASDs) is substantially higher than previously recognised. We sought to quantify prevalence of ASDs in children in South Thames, UK. Methods Within a total population cohort of 56946 children aged 9-10 years, we screened all those with a current clinical diagnosis of ASD (n=255) or those judged to be at risk for being an undetected case (n=1515). A stratified subsample (n=255) received a comprehensive diagnostic assessment, including standardised clinical observation, and parent interview assessments of autistic symptoms, language, and intelligence quotient (IQ). Clinical consensus diagnoses of childhood autism and other ASDs were derived. We used a sample weighting procedure to estimate prevalence. Findings The prevalence of childhood autism was 38.9 per 10000 (95% CI 29.9-47.8) and that of other ASDs was 77.2 per 10000 (52.1-102.3), making the total prevalence of all AS Ds 116.1 per 10000 (90.4-141.8). A narrower definition of childhood autism, which combined clinical consensus with instrument criteria for past and current presentation, provided a prevalence of 24.8 per 10 000 (17.6-32.0). The rate of previous local identification was lowest for children of less educated parents. Interpretation Prevalence of autism and related ASDs is substantially greater than previously recognised. Whether the increase is due to better ascertainment, broadening diagnostic criteria, or increased incidence is unclear. Services in health, education, and social care will need to recognise the needs of children with some form of ASD, who constitute 1% of the child population.