Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

The unfathomable secret remains: a reverse engineering study of SEO factors on Google's search engine

The vast majority of users don’t seek results beyond the second page offered by the search engine, so if a site fails to be among the top 20 (second page), it says that this page does not have good SEO and, therefore, is not visible to the user. The overall objective of this project is to conduct a study to discover the factors that determine (or not) the positioning of websites in a search engine.

Anonymizing Graphs: Measuring Quality for Clustering

Peer-reviewed

Los estilos y estrategias de afrontamiento y su relación con el bienestar personal en una muestra de adolescentes

Several studies have linked coping with personal wellbeing. However, there is no research evidence analyzing this relationship in theSpanish population using Cummins’ model (1997). The aim of this study was to know the level of personal wellbeing of a sample of adolescents and to analyze the relationship between coping strategies and styles and personal well-being. With that purpose in mind, the Personal Well Being Index (PWI) and the Adolescent Coping Scale (ACS) have been administered to a sample of 656 adolescents aged between 11 and 17. The results allow identifying the effect of age and gender on personal wellbeing. Those coping strategies centered on focusing on the positive, physical recreation, working hard and achieving are associated to higher personal wellbeing while self-blaming and keeping to self are with lower personal wellbeing

Present and future methodology for the implementation of decision support systems for traffic management

Real-time predictions are an indispensable requirement for traffic management in order to be able to evaluate the effects of different available strategies or policies. The combination of predicting the state of the network and the evaluation of different traffic management strategies in the short term future allows system managers to anticipate the effects of traffic control strategies ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of congestion. This paper presents the current framework of decision support systems for traffic management based on short and medium-term predictions and includes some reflections on their likely evolution, based on current scientific research and the evolution of the availability of new types of data and their associated methodologies.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Simulating fuel consumption and vehicle emissions in an Australian context

Road transport is a major source of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions around the world. There is an increasing interest in accurate information on local vehicle emission levels for policy development and sustainable traffic management. Previous studies have shown that emission predictions for the Australian situation need to reflect both the Australian fleet and driving behaviour to avoid unreliable outcomes. This paper discusses a new Australian vehicle emission software (PΔP) and a case-study where traffic simulation software (Aimsun) is combined with PΔP to demonstrate how consistent results can be achieved for the Australian situation. The case-study is an Australian city modelled using the microscopic simulator to generate the required trajectory data of each individual vehicle for the emission model. The simulation results are used in a number of ways: to assess the impacts of urban driving behaviour on fuel consumption, to create maps showing where and when elevated emission levels occur and to compare results with another program (COPERT Australia). The paper will also discuss where further research is required.

Creative thinking

Portal web d'intercanvi d'idees creatives, confeccionat en tecnología JEE i Liferay com a gestor de continguts i gestor de portlets.

Aurora Díaz Plaja: un silenci massa llarg

L'Aurora Vall fa un complet repàs a la vida i feina d'una altra Aurora de la qual enguany s'ha commemorat el centenari del seu naixement. Una dona, Díaz-Plaja, amb una trajectòria impressionant dins el món de la LIJ que, malauradament i com reconeix l'autora de l'article, darrerament no es té prou en compte. Nascuda a Barcelona el 1913, Aurora Díaz-Plaja va ser bibliotecària, periodista, escriptora, investigadora, divulgadora i un munt de tasques més que han deixat petja inesborrable en el món de la LIJ. Formada a l'Escola de Bibliotecàries sota el mestratge de persones com Riba, Rubió o Soldevilla, va organitzar la Biblioteca del Port i va inaugurar també la Biblioteca Folch i Torres del parc de la Ciutadella a Barcelona després de treballar en altres centres del territori nacional. Molt activa en les dècades dels seixanta i setanta, va publicar estudis teòrics, va fundar revistes i va treballar frec a frec amb Pilarín Bayés en la creació d'auques i contes. La seva carrera culminà amb un munt d'homenatges i reconeixements abans que s'esdevingués aquest llarg silenci que entre tots volem desfer (se li ha fet un acte de reconeixement durant el congrés de LIJ catalana al Born el mes d'octubre). Les especialistes Teresa Duran, Marta Luna i Ana Díaz-Plaja recorden anècdotes viscudes amb l'Aurora per acompanyar l'article.

El cuidado de los ancianos en el entorno familiar : valoración de los recursos de apoyo mediante grupos de discusión

Introduction: in the present study several collectives with knowledge of the reality of family care of the elderly assessed several socia and healthcare resources and suggested several possibilities for improvement. Method: four discussion groups were used as a data collection technique. The groups were composed of caregivers, representatives-users of associations for the elderly, experts in geriatrics, and social services professionals. Results: the various discussion groups positively evaluated the Home Help Service, the Support Teams of the Home Service Programs, Interdisciplinary Community Health Workers Units, Daytime Care Centres, and the Family Rest Programme but suggested some changes to all of them. The discussion groups also indicated the need to improve the material, economic and emotional assistance given to caregivers and asked for training, institutional coordination, anddissemination of information about available resources and assistance. Conclusions: some changes are required to improve the current social and health resources available to families caring for the elderly within the family unit. Among the suggestions for improvement proposed by the participants, many are useful and could easily be applied, whereas others provide an interesting starting point for debate and reflection. Knowledge and understanding of the situation of caregiving families, based on their own experiences and those of the people who know them, is in itself sufficient to initiate and implement changes to provide resources appropriate to their needs