Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

The effect of pain on involuntary and voluntary capture of attention

BACKGROUND: There is converging evidence for the notion that pain affects a broad range of attentional domains. This study investigated the influence of pain on the involuntary capture of attention as indexed by the P3a component in the event-related potential derived from the electroencephalogram. METHODS: Participants performed in an auditory oddball task in a pain-free and a pain condition during which they submerged a hand in cold water. Novel, infrequent and unexpected auditory stimuli were presented randomly in a series of frequent standard and infrequent target tones. P3a and P3b amplitudes were observed to novel, unexpected and target-related stimuli, respectively. RESULTS: Both electrophysiological components were characterized by reduced amplitudes in the pain compared with the pain-free condition. Hit rate and reaction time to target stimuli did not differ between the two conditions presumably because the experimental task was not difficult enough to exceed attentional capacities under pain conditions. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that voluntary attention serving the maintenance and control of ongoing information processing (reflected by the P3b amplitude) is impaired by pain. In addition, the involuntary capture of attention and orientation to novel, unexpected information (measured by the P3a) is also impaired by pain. Thus, neurophysiological measures examined in this study support the theoretical positions proposing that pain can reduce attentional processing capacity. These findings have potentially important implications at the theoretical level for our understanding of the interplay of pain and cognition, and at the therapeutic level for the clinical treatment of individuals experiencing ongoing pain.

A logarithmic efficient estimator of the probability of ruin with recuperation for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes

This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

New insights into the performance of human whole-exome capture platforms.

Whole exome sequencing (WES) is increasingly used in research and diagnostics. WES users expect coverage of the entire coding region of known genes as well as sufficient read depth for the covered regions. It is, however, unknown which recent WES platform is most suitable to meet these expectations. We present insights into the performance of the most recent standard exome enrichment platforms from Agilent, NimbleGen and Illumina applied to six different DNA samples by two sequencing vendors per platform. Our results suggest that both Agilent and NimbleGen overall perform better than Illumina and that the high enrichment performance of Agilent is stable among samples and between vendors, whereas NimbleGen is only able to achieve vendor- and sample-specific best exome coverage. Moreover, the recent Agilent platform overall captures more coding exons with sufficient read depth than NimbleGen and Illumina. Due to considerable gaps in effective exome coverage, however, the three platforms cannot capture all known coding exons alone or in combination, requiring improvement. Our data emphasize the importance of evaluation of updated platform versions and suggest that enrichment-free whole genome sequencing can overcome the limitations of WES in sufficiently covering coding exons, especially GC-rich regions, and in characterizing structural variants.

Preparatory studies for a high-precision Penning-trap measurement of the 163Ho electron capture Q-value

The ECHo Collaboration (Electron Capture 163Ho aims to investigate the calorimetric spectrum following the electron capture decay of 163Ho to determine the mass of the electron neutrino. The size of the neutrino mass is reflected in the endpoint region of the spectrum, i.e., the last few eV below the transition energy. To check for systematic uncertainties, an independent determination of this transition energy, the Q-value, is mandatory. Using the TRIGA-TRAP setup, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing this measurement by Penning-trap mass spectrometry. With the currently available, purified 163Ho sample and an improved laser ablation mini-RFQ ion source, we were able to perform direct mass measurements of 163Ho and 163Dy with a sample size of less than 1017 atoms. The measurements were carried out by determining the ratio of the cyclotron frequencies of the two isotopes to those of carbon cluster ions using the time-of-flight ion cyclotron resonance method. The obtained mass excess values are ME(163Ho)= −66379.3(9) keV and ME(163Dy)= −66381.7(8) keV. In addition, the Q-value was measured for the first time by Penning-trap mass spectrometry to be Q = 2.5(7) keV.

Intravital and whole-organ imaging reveals capture of melanoma-derived antigen by lymph node subcapsular macrophages leading to widespread deposition on follicular dendritic cells.

Aberrant antigens expressed by tumor cells, such as in melanoma, are often associated with humoral immune responses, which may in turn influence tumor progression. Despite recent data showing the central role of adaptive immune responses on cancer spread or control, it remains poorly understood where and how tumor-derived antigen (TDA) induces a humoral immune response in tumor-bearing hosts. Based on our observation of TDA accumulation in B cell areas of lymph nodes (LNs) from melanoma patients, we developed a pre-metastatic B16.F10 melanoma model expressing a fluorescent fusion protein, tandem dimer tomato, as a surrogate TDA. Using intravital two-photon microscopy (2PM) and whole-mount 3D LN imaging of tumor-draining LNs in immunocompetent mice, we report an unexpectedly widespread accumulation of TDA on follicular dendritic cells (FDCs), which were dynamically scanned by circulating B cells. Furthermore, 2PM imaging identified macrophages located in the subcapsular sinus of tumor-draining LNs to capture subcellular TDA-containing particles arriving in afferent lymph. As a consequence, depletion of macrophages or genetic ablation of B cells and FDCs resulted in dramatically reduced TDA capture in tumor-draining LNs. In sum, we identified a major pathway for the induction of humoral responses in a melanoma model, which may be exploitable to manipulate anti-TDA antibody production during cancer immunotherapy.

State Capture from Below? The Contradictory Effects of Decentralisation on Public Spending

This study analyses the contradictory effects of decentralisation on public spending. We distinguish three dimensions of decentralisation and analyse their joint and separate effects on public spending in the Swiss cantons over 20 years. We find that overall decentralisation has a strong, significant and negative effect on the size of the public sector, thus confirming the Leviathan hypothesis. The same holds for fiscal and institutional decentralisation. However, the extent to which political processes and actors are organised locally rather than centrally actually increases central and decreases local spending. This suggests that actors behave strategically when dealing with the centre by offloading the more costly policies. The wider implication of our study is that the balance between self-rule and shared rule has implications also for the size of the overall political system.

Focal Epilepsy: MR Imaging of Nonhemodynamic Field Effects by Using a Phase-cycled Stimulus-induced Rotary Saturation Approach with Spin-Lock Preparation.

Purpose To investigate whether nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects can be detected in patients with focal epilepsy by using a phase-cycled stimulus-induced rotary saturation (PC-SIRS) approach with spin-lock (SL) preparation and whether they colocalize with the seizure onset zone and surface interictal epileptiform discharges (IED). Materials and Methods The study was approved by the local ethics committee, and all subjects gave written informed consent. Eight patients with focal epilepsy undergoing presurgical surface and intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) underwent magnetic resonance (MR) imaging at 3 T with a whole-brain PC-SIRS imaging sequence with alternating SL-on and SL-off and two-dimensional echo-planar readout. The power of the SL radiofrequency pulse was set to 120 Hz to sensitize the sequence to high gamma oscillations present in epileptogenic tissue. Phase cycling was applied to capture distributed current orientations. Voxel-wise subtraction of SL-off from SL-on images enabled the separation of T2* effects from rotary saturation effects. The topography of PC-SIRS effects was compared with the seizure onset zone at intracranial EEG and with surface IED-related potentials. Bayesian statistics were used to test whether prior PC-SIRS information could improve IED source reconstruction. Results Nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects ipsilateral to the seizure onset zone were detected in six of eight patients (concordance rate, 0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.40, 0.94) by means of the PC-SIRS technique. They were concordant with IED surface negativity in seven of eight patients (0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.51, 1.00). Including PC-SIRS as prior information improved the evidence of the standard EEG source models compared with the use of uninformed reconstructions (exceedance probability, 0.77 vs 0.12; Wilcoxon test of model evidence, P < .05). Nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects resolved in patients with favorable postsurgical outcomes, but persisted in patients with postsurgical seizure recurrence. Conclusion Nonhemodynamic resonant saturation effects are detectable during interictal periods with the PC-SIRS approach in patients with epilepsy. The method may be useful for MR imaging-based detection of neuronal currents in a clinical environment. (©) RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.