Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Investment, duration, and exit strategies for corporate and independent venture capital-backed start-ups

We propose a model of investment, duration, and exit strategies for start-ups backed by venture capital (VC) funds that accounts for the high level of uncertainty, the asymmetry of information between insiders and outsiders, and the discount rate. Our analysis predicts that start-ups backed by corporate VC funds remain for a longer period of time before exiting and receive larger investment amounts than those financed by independent VC funds. Although a longer duration leads to a higher likelihood of an exit through an acquisition, a larger investment increases the probability of an IPO exit. These predictions find strong empirical support.

Geração e gestão do valor por meio de métricas baseadas nas perspectivas do capital intelectual

No presente estudo, tomou-se como ponto de partida pesquisa em que se discutem possibilidades de as empresas alcançarem valor superior com base no alinhamento estratégico, na gestão do capital intelectual e na adoção do Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Investigou-se a associação entre a geração de valor e os componentes do capital intelectual segundo preceitos, entre outros, de Stewart (1999; 2001) M'Pherson e Pike (2001) e Kaplan e Norton (2004), além de trazer à tona a questão da implementação e extensão da utiliza- ção do Balanced Scorecard. As proxies empregadas para caracte- rizar geração de valor foram a média do price-to-book value (razão entre o valor de mercado e o valor patrimonial) e o retorno médio das ações no período estudado. Para caracterizar os componentes do capital intelectual, adotaram-se índices computados a partir da percepção de executivos de topo responsáveis por processos corporativos de planejamento e controle, com base na revisão de literatura e com base em procedimento de fatoração. O estudo utilizou testes não paramétricos para identificar se há evidências de diferente apreciação e retorno no mercado acionário para segmentos homogêneos de empresas com perfis diferenciados quanto aos índices de capital intelectual. Os resultados mostraram-se conclusivos e significantes - em reforço à proposição de sintonia entre a percepção do valor sob o enfoque do mercado de capitais e a percepção da performance em múltiplas perspectivas por parte de gestores. Quanto à adoção do BSC, foram identificados indícios de interferência favorável à performance nas empresas classificadas como de melhores padrões de geração de valor.

Problemas de estimação de custo de capital de empresas concessionárias no Brasil: uma aplicação à regulamentação de concessões rodoviárias

Neste trabalho, discute-se a fixação de taxas de retorno de concessões no Brasil, com aplicação específica ao caso da metodologia da Agência Nacional de Transportes Terrestres (ANTT). Mostra-se a inadequação da regulamentação vigente, baseada no conceito de taxa interna de retorno (TIR), e não de custo de oportunidade do capital. A partir de um exemplo com dados referentes ao auge da crise financeira internacional (dezembro de 2008), evidencia-se também a falta de lógica decorrente da utilização de retornos e preços passados na estimação de taxas de retorno, um procedimento comum a toda a área de concessões de serviços públicos no Brasil. Propõe-se uma metodologia alternativa cujos resultados são sensíveis às condições correntes de mercado de capitais, que produz resultados coerentes com a situação então vigente.

The generation and re-generation of social capital and enterprises in multi-stakeholders social cooperative enterprises: a system dynamic approach

Theories on social capital and on social entrepreneurship have mainly highlighted the attitude of social capital to generate enterprises and to foster good relations between third sector organizations and the public sector. This paper considers the social capital in a specific third sector enterprise; here, multi-stakeholder social cooperatives are seen, at the same time, as social capital results, creators and incubators. In the particular enterprises that identify themselves as community social enterprises, social capital, both as organizational and relational capital, is fundamental: SCEs arise from but also produce and disseminate social capital. This paper aims to improve the building of relational social capital and the refining of helpful relations drawn from other arenas, where they were created and from where they are sometimes transferred to other realities, where their role is carried on further (often working in non-profit, horizontally and vertically arranged groups, where they share resources and relations). To represent this perspective, we use a qualitative system dynamic approach in which social capital is measured using proxies. Cooperation of volunteers, customers, community leaders and third sector local organizations is fundamental to establish trust relations between public local authorities and cooperatives. These relations help the latter to maintain long-term contracts with local authorities as providers of social services and enable them to add innovation to their services, by developing experiences and management models and maintaining an interchange with civil servants regarding these matters. The long-term relations and the organizational relations linking SCEs and public organizations help to create and to renovate social capital. Thus, multi-stakeholder cooperatives originated via social capital developed in third sector organizations produce new social capital within the cooperatives themselves and between different cooperatives (entrepreneurial components of the third sector) and the public sector. In their entrepreneurial life, cooperatives have to contrast the "working drift," as a result of which only workers remain as members of the cooperative, while other stakeholders leave the organization. Those who are not workers in the cooperative are (stake)holders with "weak ties," who are nevertheless fundamental in making a worker's cooperative an authentic social multi-stakeholders cooperative. To maintain multi-stakeholder governance and the relations with third sector and civil society, social cooperatives have to reinforce participation and dialogue with civil society through ongoing efforts to include people that provide social proposals. We try to represent these processes in a system dynamic model applied to local cooperatives, measuring the social capital created by the social cooperative through proxies, such as number of volunteers and strong cooperation with public institutions. Using a reverse-engineering approach, we can individuate the determinants of the creation of social capital and thereby give support to governance that creates social capital.

Ensaio sobre as virtudes do capital de risco corporativo para projetos de alta tecnologia no setor agrícola: a trajetória inovadora da Alellyx Applied Genomics e da CanaVialis

O objetivo neste artigo é investigar a trajetória de duas empresas startups brasileiras dedicadas a pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D) no setor de biotecnologia: a Alellyx e a CanaVialis. São dois casos de spin-offs acadêmicos e de bioemprendimentos germinados na esfera do Projeto Genoma, da Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (Fapesp), maturadas na Votorantim Novos Negócios (VNN), área de novos negócios de um dos maiores grupos industriais brasileiros que atua no segmento de commodities, o Grupo Votorantim S/A, e depois vendidas para a Monsanto. Neste estudo, tentou-se compreender a racionalidade e as virtudes das ações de investimentos corporativos e das políticas públicas destinadas à biotecnologia focada em genômica aplicada para a agricultura no Brasil. A metodologia utilizada é a de estudo de caso, mais especificamente de análise dos dois casos de empresas comentados acima. Os resultados demonstraram que, apesar de o principal objetivo do grupo econômico ser a célere valorização do capital investido e seu retorno financeiro, a afiliação corporativa dessas empresas estimulou a aceleração de um conjunto de capacitações para a gestão empresarial da Alellyx e da CanaVialis, que foram críticas para o amadurecimento do negócio. Evidenciou-se, ainda, que foi fundamental o significativo aporte de recursos por meio dos mecanismos de apoio do sistema nacional à inovação.

Sharing competences in strategic alliances: a case study of the Cosan and Shell biofuel venture

In a competitive world, the way a firm establishes its organizational arrangements may determine the enhancement of its core competences and the possibility of reaching new markets. Firms that find their skills to be applicable in just one type of market encounter constraints in expanding their markets, and through alliances may find a competitive form of value capture. Hybrid forms of organization appear primarily as an alternative to capturing value and managing joint assets when the market and hierarchy modes do not present any yields for the firm's competitiveness. As a result, this form may present other challenging issues, such as the allocation of rights and principal-agent problems. The biofuel market has presented a strong pattern of changes over the last 10 years. New intra-firm arrangements have appeared as a path to participate or survive among global competition. Given the need for capital to achieve better results, there has been a consistent movement of mergers and acquisitions in the Biofuel sector, especially since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2011 there were five major groups in Brazil with a grinding capacity of more than 15 million tons per year: Raízen (joint venture formed by Cosan and Shell), Louis Dreyfus, Tereos Petrobras, ETH, and Bunge. Major oil companies have implemented the strategy of diversification as a hedge against the rising cost of oil. Using the alliance of Cosan and Shell in the Brazilian biofuel market as a case study, this paper analyses the governance mode and challenging issues raised by strategic alliances when firms aim to reach new markets through the sharing of core competences with local firms. The article is based on documentary research and interviews with Cosan's Investor Relations staff, and examines the main questions involving hybrid forms through the lens of the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), Agency Theory, Resource Based View (RBV), and dynamic capabilities theoretical approaches. One focal point is knowledge "appropriability" and the specific assets originated by the joint venture. Once the alliance is formed, it is expected that competences will be shared and new capabilities will expand the limits of the firm. In the case studied, Cosan and Shell shared a number of strategic assets related to their competences. Raízen was formed with economizing incentives, as well to continue marshalling internal resources to enhance the company's presence in the world energy sector. Therefore, some challenges might be related to the control and monitoring agents' behavior, considering the two-part organism formed by distinctive organizational culture, tacit knowledge, and long-term incentives. The case study analyzed illustrates the hybrid arrangement as a middle form for organizing the transaction: neither in the market nor in the hierarchy mode, but rather a more flexible commitment agreement with a strategic central authority. The corporate governance devices are also a challenge, since the alignment between the parent companies in the joint ventures is far more complex. These characteristics have led to an organism with bilateral dependence, offering favorable conditions for developing dynamic capabilities. However, these conditions might rely on the partners' long-term interest in the joint venture.

Estudo dos fatores que determinam a formação do capital social familiar em empresas familiares na região sul de Minas Gerais

No estudo aqui relatado identificaram-se os fatores que levam à formação do capital social familiar em empresas familiares. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, utilizou-se, como aporte teórico, a teoria do capital social e do capital social familiar. Para tanto, foi realizada uma pesquisa exploratória, do tipo survey, em 120 empreendimentos familiares. Aplicou-se questionário, sob a forma de entrevista, a todos os empresários. Os dados foram analisados por meio de análise fatorial. Os resultados foram apresentados em dois blocos: primeiro, a caracterização da amostra em relação ao perfil do respondente e ao perfil do empreendimento, bem como a apresentação da frequência de cada uma das assertivas; na segunda parte, foi feita a análise fatorial, após a qual foram identificados sete fatores relacionados com a formação do capital social familiar. São eles: diálogo colaborativo, rede familiar, infraestrutura moral, confiança, normas éticas, ideias próprias e canais de informação externos. O capital social familiar é solidificado por meio do diálogo colaborativo, a partir do qual é possível enraizar, na família e na empresa, as normas éticas, originando o que se chama de infraestrutura moral, quando a família e a empresa estão em sintonia interna e externa. Em um sentido contraditório, a ausência do diálogo colaborativo gera autoritarismo por parte dos dirigentes e membros da família, prevalecendo ideias próprias, as quais foram identificadas como fator contraditório à formação do capital social familiar.

"Um arranjo produtivo em xeque": campo, habitus e capital simbólico em um Arranjo Produtivo Local moveleiro em Minas Gerais

O Arranjo Produtivo Local de Ubá e região (APL de Ubá) gera cerca de nove mil empregos e abriga a sede da maior empresa de móveis de aço da América Latina, além de três outras grandes empresas. Entretanto, é marcado por relações de disputa que preocupam os próprios empresários locais. O problema investigado é até que ponto essas disputas, especialmente entre fabricantes e fornecedores, colocam em risco esse APL moveleiro. O objetivo neste artigo é apresentar um entendimento de como se dão as relações de poder entre os empreendedores locais fabricantes de móveis e os fornecedores dessas empresas, discutindo suas implicações para o APL. Os resultados apontam para a existência de problemas nas relações entre fabricantes e fornecedores decorrentes, principalmente, da acumulação desigual de capital simbólico, do predomínio de interesses diferentes em jogo (illusio), bem como dos princípios diferentes e em oposição que orientam as práticas dos agentes (habitus). Os resultados apontam os riscos que essa natureza de relações acarreta para o APL de Ubá.

U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

Effect of investments on fundamentals and market reaction on pre-operational and operational Brazilian companies for the period 2006-2012

ABSTRACT This paper provides evidence on the market reaction to corporate investment decisions whose shareholder value is largely attributed to growth options. The exploratory research raised pre-operational companies and their operational pairs on the same economy segments. It had the purpose of investigating the existence of statistical differentiation from financial indicators that reflect the installed assets and growth assets, and then study the market reaction to changes in fixed assets as a signaling element about investment decisions. The formation process of operational assets and shareholder value almost exclusively dependent on asset growth stands out in the pre-operational companies. As a result, differentiation tests confirmed that the pre-operational companies had their value especially derived on growth options. The market reaction was particularly bigger in pre-operational companies with abnormal negative stock returns, while the operational companies had positive returns, which may indicate that the quality of the investment is judged based on the financial disclosure. Additionally, operational companies' investors await the disclosure to adjust their prices. We conclude that the results are consistent with the empirical evidence and the participants in financial markets to long-term capital formation investments should give that special attention.

Behavioral aspects of investment fund's markets: are good managers lucky or skilled?

It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds