Optimal strategies and minimax lower bounds for online convex games

A number of learning problems can be cast as an Online Convex Game: on each round, a learner makes a prediction x from a convex set, the environment plays a loss function f, and the learner’s long-term goal is to minimize regret. Algorithms have been proposed by Zinkevich, when f is assumed to be convex, and Hazan et al., when f is assumed to be strongly convex, that have provably low regret. We consider these two settings and analyze such games from a minimax perspective, proving minimax strategies and lower bounds in each case. These results prove that the existing algorithms are essentially optimal.

Radiation effect on free convection laminar flow along a vertical flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature

The effect of thermal radiation on a steady two-dimensional natural convection laminar flow of viscous incompressible optically thick fluid along a vertical flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal surface temperature has been investigated in this study. Using the appropriate variables; the basic governing equations are transformed to convenient form and then solved numerically employing two efficient methods, namely, Implicit finite difference method (IFD) together with Keller box scheme and Straight forward finite difference (SFFD) method. Effects of the variation of the physical parameters, for example, conduction-radiation parameter (Planck number), surface temperature parameter, and the amplitude of the surface temperature, are shown on the skin friction and heat transfer rate quantitatively are shown numerically. Velocity and temperature profiles as well as streamlines and isotherms are also presented and discussed for the variation of conduction-radiation parameter. It is found that both skin-friction and rate of heat transfer are enhanced considerably by increasing the values of conduction radiation parameter, Rd.

Measurement of total body water (TBW) and total energy expenditure (TEE) using stable isotopes

Understanding the relationship between diet, physical activity and health in humans requires accurate measurement of body composition and daily energy expenditure. Stable isotopes provide a means of measuring total body water and daily energy expenditure under free-living conditions. While the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) for the analysis of 2H (Deuterium) and 18O (Oxygen-18) is well established in the field of human energy metabolism research, numerous questions remain regarding the factors which influence analytical and measurement error using this methodology. This thesis was comprised of four studies with the following emphases. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the analytical and measurement error of the IRMS with regard to sample handling under certain conditions. Study 2 involved the comparison of TEE (Total daily energy expenditure) using two commonly employed equations. Further, saliva and urine samples, collected at different times, were used to determine if clinically significant differences would occur. Study 3 was undertaken to determine the appropriate collection times for TBW estimates and derived body composition values. Finally, Study 4, a single case study to investigate if TEE measures are affected when the human condition changes due to altered exercise and water intake. The aim of Study 1 was to validate laboratory approaches to measure isotopic enrichment to ensure accurate (to international standards), precise (reproducibility of three replicate samples) and linear (isotope ratio was constant over the expected concentration range) results. This established the machine variability for the IRMS equipment in use at Queensland University for both TBW and TEE. Using either 0.4mL or 0.5mL sample volumes for both oxygen-18 and deuterium were statistically acceptable (p>0.05) and showed a within analytical variance of 5.8 Delta VSOW units for deuterium, 0.41 Delta VSOW units for oxygen-18. This variance was used as “within analytical noise” to determine sample deviations. It was also found that there was no influence of equilibration time on oxygen-18 or deuterium values when comparing the minimum (oxygen-18: 24hr; deuterium: 3 days) and maximum (oxygen-18: and deuterium: 14 days) equilibration times. With regard to preparation using the vacuum line, any order of preparation is suitable as the TEE values fall within 8% of each other regardless of preparation order. An 8% variation is acceptable for the TEE values due to biological and technical errors (Schoeller, 1988). However, for the automated line, deuterium must be assessed first followed by oxygen-18 as the automated machine line does not evacuate tubes but merely refills them with an injection of gas for a predetermined time. Any fractionation (which may occur for both isotopes), would cause a slight elevation in the values and hence a lower TEE. The purpose of the second and third study was to investigate the use of IRMS to measure the TEE and TBW of and to validate the current IRMS practices in use with regard to sample collection times of urine and saliva, the use of two TEE equations from different research centers and the body composition values derived from these TEE and TBW values. Following the collection of a fasting baseline urine and saliva sample, 10 people (8 women, 2 men) were dosed with a doubly labeled water does comprised of 1.25g 10% oxygen-18 and 0.1 g 100% deuterium/kg body weight. The samples were collected hourly for 12 hrs on the first day and then morning, midday, and evening samples were collected for the next 14 days. The samples were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. For the TBW, time to equilibration was determined using three commonly employed data analysis approaches. Isotopic equilibration was reached in 90% of the sample by hour 6, and in 100% of the sample by hour 7. With regard to the TBW estimations, the optimal time for urine collection was found to be between hours 4 and 10 as to where there was no significant difference between values. In contrast, statistically significant differences in TBW estimations were found between hours 1-3 and from 11-12 when compared with hours 4-10. Most of the individuals in this study were in equilibrium after 7 hours. The TEE equations of Prof Dale Scholler (Chicago, USA, IAEA) and Prof K.Westerterp were compared with that of Prof. Andrew Coward (Dunn Nutrition Centre). When comparing values derived from samples collected in the morning and evening there was no effect of time or equation on resulting TEE values. The fourth study was a pilot study (n=1) to test the variability in TEE as a result of manipulations in fluid consumption and level of physical activity; the magnitude of change which may be expected in a sedentary adult. Physical activity levels were manipulated by increasing the number of steps per day to mimic the increases that may result when a sedentary individual commences an activity program. The study was comprised of three sub-studies completed on the same individual over a period of 8 months. There were no significant changes in TBW across all studies, even though the elimination rates changed with the supplemented water intake and additional physical activity. The extra activity may not have sufficiently strenuous enough and the water intake high enough to cause a significant change in the TBW and hence the CO2 production and TEE values. The TEE values measured show good agreement based on the estimated values calculated on an RMR of 1455 kcal/day, a DIT of 10% of TEE and activity based on measured steps. The covariance values tracked when plotting the residuals were found to be representative of “well-behaved” data and are indicative of the analytical accuracy. The ratio and product plots were found to reflect the water turnover and CO2 production and thus could, with further investigation, be employed to identify the changes in physical activity.

Scaling of thermo-magnetic convection

The scaling to characterize unsteady boundary layer development for thermo-magnetic convection of paramagnetic fluids with the Prandtl number greater than one is developed. Under the consideration is a square cavity with initially quiescent isothermal fluid placed in microgravity condition (g = 0) and subject to a uniform, vertical gradient magnetic field. A distinct magnetic thermal-boundary layer is produced by sudden imposing of a higher temperature on the vertical sidewall and as an effect of magnetic body force generated on paramagnetic fluid. The transient flow behavior of the resulting boundary layer is shown to be described by three stages: the start-up stage, the transitional stage and the steady state. The scaling is verified by numerical simulations with the magnetic momentum parameter m variation and the parameter γRa variation.

Common variation in the fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 gene is not associated with endometriosis risk

BACKGROUND Endometriosis is a polygenic disease with a complex and multifactorial aetiology that affects 8-10% of women of reproductive age. Epidemiological data support a link between endometriosis and cancers of the reproductive tract. Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) has recently been implicated in both endometrial and breast cancer. Our previous studies on endometriosis identified significant linkage to a novel susceptibility locus on chromosome 10q26 and the FGFR2 gene maps within this linkage region. We therefore hypothesized that variation in FGFR2 may contribute to the risk of endometriosis. METHODS We genotyped 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) densely covering a 27 kb region within intron 2 of FGFR2 including two SNPs (rs2981582 and rs1219648) significantly associated with breast cancer and a total 40 tagSNPs across 150 kb of the FGFR2 gene. SNPs were genotyped in 958 endometriosis cases and 959 unrelated controls. RESULTS We found no evidence for association between endometriosis and FGFR2 intron 2 SNPs or SNP haplotypes and no evidence for association between endometriosis and variation across the FGFR2 gene. CONCLUSIONS Common variation in the breast-cancer implicated intron 2 and other highly plausible causative candidate regions of FGFR2 do not appear to be a major contributor to endometriosis susceptibility in our large Australian sample.

P2-486 Environmental temperature variation and morbidity: a meta-analysis

Extreme temperatures have been shown to have a detrimental effect on health. Hot temperatures can increase the risk of mortality, particularly in people suffering from cardiorespiratory diseases. Given the onset of climate change, it is critical that the impact of temperature on health is understood, so that effective public health strategies can correctly identify vulnerable groups within the population. However, while effects on mortality have been extensively studied, temperature–related morbidity has received less attention. This study applied a systematic review and meta–analysis to examine the current literature relating to hot temperatures and morbidity.

Exploring the parameter space of a rabbit ventricular action potential model to investigate the effect of variation on action potential and calcium transients

Computational models for cardiomyocyte action potentials (AP) often make use of a large parameter set. This parameter set can contain some elements that are fitted to experimental data independently of any other element, some elements that are derived concurrently with other elements to match experimental data, and some elements that are derived purely from phenomenological fitting to produce the desired AP output. Furthermore, models can make use of several different data sets, not always derived for the same conditions or even the same species. It is consequently uncertain whether the parameter set for a given model is physiologically accurate. Furthermore, it is only recently that the possibility of degeneracy in parameter values in producing a given simulation output has started to be addressed. In this study, we examine the effects of varying two parameters (the L-type calcium current (I(CaL)) and the delayed rectifier potassium current (I(Ks))) in a computational model of a rabbit ventricular cardiomyocyte AP on both the membrane potential (V(m)) and calcium (Ca(2+)) transient. It will subsequently be determined if there is degeneracy in this model to these parameter values, which will have important implications on the stability of these models to cell-to-cell parameter variation, and also whether the current methodology for generating parameter values is flawed. The accuracy of AP duration (APD) as an indicator of AP shape will also be assessed.

Population genetic structure and patterns of dispersal in the Giant Long-Armed Prawn, Macrobrachium lar (Fabricius, 1798) (Decapoda : Palaemonidae)

The Giant Long-Armed Prawn, Macrobrachium lar is a freshwater species native to the Indo-Pacific. M. lar has a long-lived, passive, pelagic marine larval stage where larvae need to colonise freshwater within three months to complete their development. Dispersal is likely to be influenced by the extensive distances larvae must transit between small oceanic islands to find suitable freshwater habitat, and by prevailing east to west wind and ocean currents in the southern Pacific Ocean. Thus, both intrinsic and extrinsic factors are likely to influence wild population structure in this species. The present study sought to define the contemporary broad and fine-scale population genetic structure of Macrobrachium lar in the south-western Pacific Ocean. Three polymorphic microsatellite loci were used to assess patterns of genetic variation within and among 19 wild adult sample sites. Statistical procedures that partition variation implied that at both spatial scales, essentially all variation was present within sample sites and differentiation among sites was low. Any differentiation observed also was not correlated with geographical distance. Statistical approaches that measure genetic distance, at the broad-scale, showed that all south-western Pacific Islands were essentially homogeneous, with the exception of a well supported divergent Cook Islands group. These findings are likely the result of some combination of factors that may include the potential for allelic homoplasy, through to the effects of sampling regime. Based on the findings, there is most likely a divergent M. lar Cook Islands clade in the south-western Pacific Ocean, resulting from prevailing ocean currents. Confirmation of this pattern will require a more detailed analysis of nDNA variation using a larger number of loci and, where possible, use of larger population sizes.