Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on output convergence among the Mercosur countries and associates, using multivariate time-series tests. The methodology is based on a combination of tests and estimation procedures, both univariate and multivariate, applied to the differences in per capita real income. We use the definitions of time-series convergence proposed by Bernard & Durlauf and apply unit root and tests proposed by Abuaf & Jorion and Taylor & Sarno. In this same multivariate context, the Flôres, Preumont & Szafarz and Breuer, MbNown & Wallace tests, which allow for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion, identify the countries that convergence. Concerning the empirical results, there is evidence of long-run convergence or, at least, catching up, for the smaller countries, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, towards Brazil and, to some extent, Argentina. In contrast, the evidence on convergence for the larger countries is weaker, as they have followed different (or rather opposing) macroeconomic policy strategies. Thus the future of the whole area will critically depend on the ability of Brazil, Argentina and Chile to find some scope for more cooperative policy actions.

De "l'ermite" à "zone" : une lecture d'alcools de Guillaume Apollinaire

Resumo não disponível.

A note on convergence of Peck-Shell and Green-Lin mechanisms in the Diamond-Dybvig model

We study the effects of population size in the Peck-Shell analysis of bank runs. We find that a contract featuring equal-treatment for almost all depositors of the same type approximates the optimum. Because the approximation also satisfies Green-Lin incentive constraints, when the planner discloses positions in the queue, welfare in these alternative specifications are sandwiched. Disclosure, however, it is not needed since our approximating contract is not subject to runs.

Convergence in Brazil: recent trends and long run prospects

This paper applies to the analysis of the interstate income distribution in BraziI a set of techniques that have been widely used in the current empirical literature on growth and convergence. Usual measures of dispersion in the interstate income distribution (the coefficient of variation and Theil' s index) suggest that cr-convergence was an unequivoca1 feature of the regional growth experience in BraziI, between 1970 and 1986. After 1986, the process of convergence seems, however, to have sIowed down almost to a halt. A standard growth modeI is shown to fit the regional data well and to expIain a substantial amount of the variation in growth rates, providing estimates of the speed of (conditional) J3-convergence of approximateIy 3% p.a .. Different estimates of the long run distribution implied by the recent growth trends point towards further reductions in the interstate income inequality, but also suggest that the relative per capita incomes of a significant number of states and the number of ''very poor" and "poor" states were, in 1995, already quite c10se to their steady-state values.

Especulative (sic) attack on exchange rate target zone regime : the uncertainty case

We present a continuous time target zone model of speculative attacks. Contrary to most of the literature that considers the certainty case, i.e., agents know for sure the Central Bank behavior in the future, we build uncertainty into the madel in two different ways. First, we consider the case in whicb the leveI of reserves at which the central bank lets the regime collapse is uncertain. Alternatively, we ana1ize the case in which, with some probability, the government may cbange its policy reducing the initially positive trend in domestic credito In both cases, contrary to the case of a fixed exchange rate regime, speculators face a cost of launching a tentative attack that may not succeed. Such cost induces a delay and may even prevent its occurrence. At the time of the tentative attack, the exchange rate moves either discretely up, if the attack succeeds, or down, if it fails. The remlts are consistent with the fact that, typically, an attack involves substantial profits and losses for the speculators. In particular, if agents believed that the government will control fiscal imbalances in the future, or alternatively, if they believe the trend in domestic credit to be temporary, the attack is postponed even in the presence of a signal of an imminent collapse. Finally, we aIso show that the timing of a speculative attack increases with the width of the target zone.

Toward convergence? The brazilian stock market concentration and the role of private equity in its diversification

Using quantitative data obtained from public available database, this paper discusses the difference between of the Brazilian GDP and the Brazilian Stock Exchange industry breakdown. I examined if, and to what extent, the industry breakdowns are similar. First, I found out that the Stock Exchange industry breakdown is overwhelming different from the GDP, which may present a potential problem to asset allocation and portfolio diversification in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a convergence between the GDP and the Stock Exchange in the last 9 years. Third, it became clear that the Privatizations in the late 90’s and IPO market from 2004 to 2008 change the dynamics of the Brazilian Stock Exchange. And fourth, I identified that Private Equity and Venture Capital industry may play an important role on the portfolio diversification in Brazil.

Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

Note zone

Imagem componente do jogo “Musikinésia (http://www.loa.sead.ufscar.br/musikinesia.php)” desenvolvido pela equipe do Laboratório de Objetos de Aprendizagem da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (LOA/UFSCar).

An essay on economic growth: classical determinants, convergence and financial development

This dissertation surveys the literature on economic growth. I review a substantial number of articles published by some of the most renowned researchers engaged in the study of economic growth. The literature is so vast that before undertaking new studies it is very important to know what has been done in the field. The dissertation has six chapters. In Chapter 1, I introduce the reader to the topic of economic growth. In Chapter 2, I present the Solow model and other contributions to the exogenous growth theory proposed in the literature. I also briefly discuss the endogenous approach to growth. In Chapter 3, I summarize the variety of econometric problems that affect the cross-country regressions. The factors that contribute to economic growth are highlighted and the validity of the empirical results is discussed. In Chapter 4, the existence of convergence, whether conditional or not, is analyzed. The literature using both cross-sectional and panel data is reviewed. An analysis on the topic of convergence using a quantile-regression framework is also provided. In Chapter 5, the controversial relationship between financial development and economic growth is analyzed. Particularly, I discuss the arguments in favour and against the Schumpeterian view that considers financial development as an important determinant of innovation and economic growth. Chapter 6 concludes the dissertation. Summing up, the literature appears to be not fully conclusive about the main determinants of economic growth, the existence of convergence and the impact of finance on growth.

Contamination of port zone sediments by metals from Large Marine Ecosystems of Brazil

Sediment contamination by metals poses risks to coastal ecosystems and is considered to be problematic to dredging operations. In Brazil, there are differences in sedimentology along the Large Marine Ecosystems in relation to the metal distributions. We aimed to assess the extent of Al, Fe, Hg, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in sediments from port zones in northeast (Mucuripe and Pecem) and southeast (Santos) Brazil through geochemical analyses and sediment quality ratings. The metal concentrations found in these port zones were higher than those observed in the continental shelf or the background values in both regions. In the northeast, metals were associated with carbonate, while in Santos, they were associated with mud. Geochemical analyses showed enrichments in Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn, and a simple application of international sediment quality guidelines failed to predict their impacts, whereas the use of site-specific values that were derived by geochemical and ecotoxicological approaches seemed to be more appropriate in the management of the dredged sediments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nesting architecture and population structure of the fungus-growing ant Cyphomyrmex transversus (Formicidae: Myrmicinae: Attini) in the Brazilian coastal zone of Ilheus, Bahia

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Religião e cultura local: estudo de dois grupos espíritas potiguares

The subject of this research is the spiritual religious field, connected with the local cultural perspectives. Its basis is the analysis of two spiritual groups settled in Natal/RN: The Spiritual Group Evangelho no Lar and the Spiritual Center Garimpeiros da Luz . These two groups represent a point of convergence of several sectors of this religion, either through its insertion in the local sphere or in contact to nationally influent leaders, like the mediums Francisco Cândido Xavier and Divaldo Pereira Franco. Then, it aims to reach the potiguar singularities in their spiritualism approaches, looking for an analyses to possible connections between local values and themes from the spiritualism largely developed in Brazil. So, its objective is to act in the scope of influence, references, representations and adaptive practices in a local context, and they signalize special practices . The approaches until now developed refer only to the living of a Brazilian spiritualism, perfectly developed in contact with the catholic substrate, but there s still a gap about the local observation, with its peculiarities, which its research aims to disclosure. The option for a qualitative approach, in perfect relationship with the nature of the questions which were made was considered as an appropriate way to guide the study. To reach this, it will be made an ethnography of the studied groups, not only in the use of open interviews with its members but also in the contact and observation of its religious behavior, for example: meeting for studies of the doctrine, mediunic meetings, public lectures, helping the public in general. As results of this research we can point to the delimitation of local cultural references, which are undeniable, in relation to the identification of RN personalities who are considered coordinators or active spirits in the work performed by the groups. Thus, Auta de Souza, poetess and woman of great religiosity, Augusto Severo de Albuquerque Maranhão, martyr of the aeronautics, Father João Maria, object of popular devotion and Abdias Antônio de Oliveira, ex president of the Spiritual Federation of RN, present themselves as spiritual beings who lead the adaptability to the local context. In such a context, we have to point out the work of mediums, who, having a specific charisma, interacted with the groups in the establishment of these cultural bridges already made in their own contexts (national level), through the work equally possible to be locally reproduced. This and other facts, point out to perspectives of cultural circularity , including referring to a greater linking to sub layers in a true zone that converges and has circulation between an erudite spiritualism with another one, turned to the incorporation of local and popular elements