A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Turnaround across diverse global supply chains using shared metrics and change methodology: The Case of Amer Sports Corporation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to document the outcome of a global three-year long supply chain improvement initiative at a multi-national producer of branded sporting goods that is transforming from a holding structure to an integrated company. The case company is comprised of seven internationally well-known sport brands, which form a diverse set of independent sub-cases, on which the same supply chain metrics and change project approach was applied to improve supply chain performance. Design/methodology/approach - By using in-depth case study and statistical analysis the paper analyzes across the brands how supply chain complexity (SKU count), supply chain type (make or buy) and seasonality affect completeness and punctuality of deliveries, and inventory as the change project progresses. Findings - Results show that reduction in supply chain complexity improves delivery performance, but has no impact on inventory. Supply chain type has no impact on service level, but brands with in-house production are better in improving inventory than those with outsourced production. Non-seasonal business units improve service faster than seasonal ones, yet there is no impact on inventory. Research limitations/implications - The longitudinal data used for the analysis is biased with the general business trend, yet the rich data from different cases and three-years of data collection enables generalizations to a certain level. Practical implications - The in-depth case study serves as an example for other companies on how to initiate a supply chain improvement project across business units with tangible results. Originality/value - The seven sub-cases with their different characteristics on which the same improvement initiative was applied sets a unique ground for longitudinal analysis to study supply chain complexity, type and seasonality.

Reversible congestive heart failure associated with primary carnitin deficiency: report of a case and review of the literature.

A 5-year-old previously healthy boy was admitted for abdominal pain and vomiting. Physical examination showed tachypnoe (32/min), hepatomegaly and painful palpation of the upper right abdominal quadrant. Laboratory tests were normal except for elevated ammonium (202mcmol/l). Chest X-ray was performed, showing cardiomegaly and interstitial edema. Transthoracic echocardiography revealed dilated left cavities and LV hypertrophy together with a diffuse hypokinesia and LVEF of 30-40%. Diuretics and ACE-inhibitors were introduced. At that time, the differential diagnosis for the DCM included myocarditis, congenital or genetic, metabolic or autoimmune disease. The next day, the boy underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) examination, showing a severe dilatation of the LV with an end-diastolic diameter of 50mm and a volume of 150ml. LVEF was 20% with diffuse LV hypokinesia (Fig. 1). No late enhancement was present after Gadolinium injection, ruling out myocarditis. Further laboratory metabolic analysis indicated severely decreased total and free carnitin levels and low renal carnitin reabsorption, corroborating the diagnosis of primary carnitin deficiency (PCD). Carnitin substitution was initiated. The clinical condition rapidly improved. No symptoms of heart failure were present anymore. A follow-up CMR performed 9 months later confirmed the recovery. LV end-diastolic volume decreased from 150ml to 66ml, LVEF increased from 20% to 55% (Fig. 2). Late enhancement was absent after Gadolinum injection (Fig. 3).Carnitin is required for the transport of fatty acids from the cytosol into mitochondria during lipid breakdown. 75% of carnitin is obtained from food, 25% is endogenously synthesized. PCD is an autosomal recessive disorder resulting from impairment of a transporter activity, caused by mutation of the SLC22A5 gene. Incidence is about 1 in 40'000 newborns. Diagnosis is usually made at age 1 to 7. Three forms of PCD are described. In the form associated with cardiomyopathy, the disease is progressive and patient die from heart failure if not treated. Substitution of L-Carnitin leads to a dramatic improvement of disease course.This case underlines the crucial role of etiologic diagnostics in this reversible form of DCM. Early diagnostics and therapy are critical for the prognosis of the patient. This is furthermore an example of a role played by CMR in the diagnostic work-up of heart failure and its follow-up under therapy.

Multilocus sequence analysis reveals the genetic diversity of European fruit tree phytoplasmas and supports the existence of inter-species recombination

The genetic diversity of three temperate fruit tree phytoplasmas ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma prunorum’, ‘Ca. P. mali’ and ‘Ca. P. pyri’ has been established by multilocus sequence analysis. Among the four genetic loci used, the genes imp and aceF distinguished 30 and 24 genotypes, respectively, and showed the highest variability. Percentage of substitution for imp ranged from 50 to 68% according to species. Percentage of substitution varied between 9 and 12% for aceF, whereas it was between 5 and 6% for pnp and secY. In the case of ‘Ca P. prunorum’ the three most prevalent aceF genotypes were detected in both plants and insect vectors, confirming that the prevalent isolates are propagated by insects. The four isolates known to be hypo-virulent had the same aceF sequence, indicating a possible monophyletic origin. Haplotype network reconstructed by eBURST revealed that among the 34 haplotypes of ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, the four hypo-virulent isolates also grouped together in the same clade. Genotyping of some Spanish and Azerbaijanese ‘Ca. P. pyri’ isolates showed that they shared some alleles with ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, supporting for the first time to our knowledge, the existence of inter-species recombination between these two species.

Genome-wide association study of recurrent major depressive disorder in two European case-control cohorts.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a highly prevalent disorder with substantial heritability. Heritability has been shown to be substantial and higher in the variant of MDD characterized by recurrent episodes of depression. Genetic studies have thus far failed to identify clear and consistent evidence of genetic risk factors for MDD. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in two independent datasets. The first GWAS was performed on 1022 recurrent MDD patients and 1000 controls genotyped on the Illumina 550 platform. The second was conducted on 492 recurrent MDD patients and 1052 controls selected from a population-based collection, genotyped on the Affymetrix 5.0 platform. Neither GWAS identified any SNP that achieved GWAS significance. We obtained imputed genotypes at the Illumina loci for the individuals genotyped on the Affymetrix platform, and performed a meta-analysis of the two GWASs for this common set of approximately half a million SNPs. The meta-analysis did not yield genome-wide significant results either. The results from our study suggest that SNPs with substantial odds ratio are unlikely to exist for MDD, at least in our datasets and among the relatively common SNPs genotyped or tagged by the half-million-loci arrays. Meta-analysis of larger datasets is warranted to identify SNPs with smaller effects or with rarer allele frequencies that contribute to the risk of MDD.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

Risk Factors for tuberculosis among human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons. A case-control study in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil (1985-1996)

The objective of this study was to identify tuberculosis risk factors and possible surrogate markers among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons. A retrospective case-control study was carried out at the HIV outpatient clinic of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in Belo Horizonte. We reviewed the demographic, social-economical and medical data of 477 HIV-infected individuals evaluated from 1985 to 1996. The variables were submitted to an univariate and stratified analysis. Aids related complex (ARC), past history of pneumonia, past history of hospitalization, CD4 count and no antiretroviral use were identified as possible effect modifiers and confounding variables, and were submitted to logistic regression analysis by the stepwise method. ARC had an odds ratio (OR) of 3.5 (CI 95% - 1.2-10.8) for tuberculosis development. Past history of pneumonia (OR 1.7 - CI 95% 0.6-5.2) and the CD4 count (OR 0.4 - CI 0.2-1.2) had no statistical significance. These results show that ARC is an important clinical surrogate for tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients. Despite the need of confirmation in future studies, these results suggest that the ideal moment for tuberculosis chemoprophylaxis could be previous to the introduction of antiretroviral treatment or even just after the diagnosis of HIV infection.

Productivity and human capital: a business-level analysis

This paper aims to analyse the impact of human capital on business productivity, focusing the analysis on the possible effect of the complementarity that exists between human capital and new production technologies, particularly advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) for the specific case of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Catalonia. Additionally, following the theory of skill-biased technological change, the paper analyses whether technological change produces bias exclusively in the skills required for managers, or whether the bias extends to the skills required of production staff. With this objective, we have compared the possible existence of complementarity between AMTs and the level of human capital for different occupational groups. The results confirm the complementary relationship between human capital and new production technologies. The results by occupational group confirm that to maximise the productivity of new technologies, skilled staff are needed both in management and production, with managers and professionals as well as skilled operatives playing a vital role. Keywords: human capital, process technologies, complementarity, business productivity. (JEL D24, J24, O30).

Analysis of stop-gain and frameshift variants in human innate immunity genes.

Loss-of-function variants in innate immunity genes are associated with Mendelian disorders in the form of primary immunodeficiencies. Recent resequencing projects report that stop-gains and frameshifts are collectively prevalent in humans and could be responsible for some of the inter-individual variability in innate immune response. Current computational approaches evaluating loss-of-function in genes carrying these variants rely on gene-level characteristics such as evolutionary conservation and functional redundancy across the genome. However, innate immunity genes represent a particular case because they are more likely to be under positive selection and duplicated. To create a ranking of severity that would be applicable to innate immunity genes we evaluated 17,764 stop-gain and 13,915 frameshift variants from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project and 1,000 Genomes Project. Sequence-based features such as loss of functional domains, isoform-specific truncation and nonsense-mediated decay were found to correlate with variant allele frequency and validated with gene expression data. We integrated these features in a Bayesian classification scheme and benchmarked its use in predicting pathogenic variants against Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) disease stop-gains and frameshifts. The classification scheme was applied in the assessment of 335 stop-gains and 236 frameshifts affecting 227 interferon-stimulated genes. The sequence-based score ranks variants in innate immunity genes according to their potential to cause disease, and complements existing gene-based pathogenicity scores. Specifically, the sequence-based score improves measurement of functional gene impairment, discriminates across different variants in a given gene and appears particularly useful for analysis of less conserved genes.

Heterogeneity of human monocytes: an optimized four-color flow cytometry protocol for analysis of monocyte subsets.

Monocytes are central mediators in the development of atherosclerotic plaques. They circulate in blood and eventually migrate into tissue including the vessel wall where they give rise to macrophages and dendritic cells. The existence of monocyte subsets with distinct roles in homeostasis and inflammation suggests specialization of function. These subsets are identified based on expression of the CD14 and CD16 markers. Routinely applicable protocols remain elusive, however. Here, we present an optimized four-color flow cytometry protocol for analysis of human blood monocyte subsets using a specific PE-Cy5-conjugated monoclonal antibody (mAb) to HLA-DR, a PE-Cy7-conjugated mAb to CD14, a FITC-conjugated mAb to CD16, and PE-conjugated mAbs to additional markers relevant to monocyte function. Classical CD14(+)CD16(-) monocytes (here termed "Mo1" subset) expressed high CCR2, CD36, CD64, and CD62L, but low CX(3)CR1, whereas "nonclassical" CD14(lo)CD16(+) monocytes (Mo3) essentially showed the inverse expression pattern. CD14(+)CD16(+) monocytes (Mo2) expressed high HLA-DR, CD36, and CD64. In patients with stable coronary artery disease (n = 13), classical monocytes were decreased, whereas "nonclassical" monocytes were increased 90% compared with healthy subjects with angiographically normal coronary arteries (n = 14). Classical monocytes from CAD patients expressed higher CX(3)CR1 and CCR2 than controls. Thus, stable CAD is associated with expansion of the nonclassical monocyte subset and increased expression of inflammatory markers on monocytes. Flow cytometric analysis of monocyte subsets and marker expression may provide valuable information on vascular inflammation. This may translate into the identification of monocyte subsets as selective therapeutic targets, thus avoiding adverse events associated with indiscriminate monocyte inhibition.

Environmental Tax on Products and Services Based on Their Carbon Footprint: A Case Study of the Pulp and Paper Sector

The main aim of this work is to define an environmental tax on products and services based on their carbon footprint. We examine the relevance of conventional life cycle analysis (LCA) and environmentally extended input-output analysis (EIO) as methodological tools to identify emission intensities of products and services on which the tax is based. The short-term price effects of the tax and the policy implications of considering non-GHG are also analyzed. The results from the specific case study on pulp production show that the environmental tax rate based on the LCA approach (1,8%) is higher than both EIO approaches (0,8% for product and 1,4% for industry approach), but they are comparable. Even though LCA is more product specific and provides detailed analysis, EIO would be the more relevant approach to apply economy wide environmental tax. When the environmental tax considers non-GHG emissions instead of only CO2, sectors such as agriculture, mining of coal and extraction of peat, and food exhibit higher environmental tax and price effects. Therefore, it is worthwhile for policy makers to pay attention on the implication of considering only CO2 tax or GHG emissions tax in order for such a policy measure to be effective and meaningful. Keywords: Environmental tax; Life cycle analysis; Environmental input-output analysis.

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. METHODS: We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. RESULTS: ORs were increased in underweight (<18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (>/=25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

Information and education in schistosomiasis control: an analysis of the situation in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

This paper presents the main ideas discussed in the round-table "Social and Educacional Aspects of Schistosomiasis Control", during the VII International Symposium of Schistosomiais. Considering the perspectives of schistosomiasis control in Brazil, it is described the example of the State of Minas Gerais , where the disease has been registered for more than seven decades. The importance of an extensive evaluation is now more important, considering the recent change in the Brazilian health system, since the Federal responsibility for the tropical diseases control programs have been replaced by the municipalities coordination. In this way, it is urgent to develop effective alternatives to assist the municipal staffs in the control task. In the specific case of health education, one observes a wide gap between the planned objectives and what is in fact carried out. Instant objectives and the utilization of traditional techniques prevail, which do not take into account the active participation of the population involved. Based on the authors' experience in the scientific and health education, the paper analyzes: (1) some data from a case study in the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, which presents the social representation and perception of schistosomiasis by the population; (2) an analysis of 35 different informative and educative materials used in Brazil since the sixties, and (3) some recommendations resulted from the studies that were carried out.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association data identifies a risk locus for major mood disorders on 3p21.1.

The major mood disorders, which include bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder (MDD), are considered heritable traits, although previous genetic association studies have had limited success in robustly identifying risk loci. We performed a meta-analysis of five case-control cohorts for major mood disorder, including over 13,600 individuals genotyped on high-density SNP arrays. We identified SNPs at 3p21.1 associated with major mood disorders (rs2251219, P = 3.63 x 10(-8); odds ratio = 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.92), with supportive evidence for association observed in two out of three independent replication cohorts. These results provide an example of a shared genetic susceptibility locus for bipolar disorder and MDD.

Dual transplant of marginal kidneys. Case report and review of the literature.

INTRODUCTION: Double transplantation is one possible answer to the shortage of donor organs. While each donor kidney would be unsuitable when considered as a single allograft, use of both kidneys should provide sufficient nephron mass for effective glomerular filtration. CASE REPORT: This is the first Swiss report of a dual adult transplant of marginal kidneys in a 46-year-old man, who was transplanted for the fourth time. Follow-up at 6 months is excellent without acute rejection. CONCLUSION: Recent analysis of dual marginal versus single ideal transplant outcomes, found a comparable 1-yr graft survival in both of the procedures. Long term results are still lacking and guidelines to decide between single, double or no transplantation are emerging.