929 resultados para C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
Resumo:
The purpose of this research is to investigate how international students negotiate encounters with Irish students and construct ‘meaning’ from those encounters in the spaces of the university and city. As cities are increasingly characterised by a multiplexity of diversity, the issue of living with difference is becoming more and more pertinent. In the wake of escalating socio-spatial polarisation, inter-cultural tension, racism, and xenophobia, the geographies of encounter seek to untangle the interactions that occur in the quotidian activities and spaces of everyday life to determine whether such encounters might reduce prejudice, antipathy and indifference and establish common social bonds (Amin 2002; Valentine 2008). Thus far, the literature has investigated a number of sites of encounter; public space, the home, neighbourhoods, schools, sports clubs, public transport, cafes and libraries (Wilson 2011; Schuermans 2013; Hemming 2011; Neal and Vincent 2011; Mayblin, Valentine and Anderrson 2015; Laurier and Philo 2006; Valentine and Sadgrove 2013; Harris, Valentine and Piekut 2014; Fincher and Iveson 2008). While these spaces produce a range of outcomes, the literature remains frustrated by a lack of clarity of what constitutes a ‘meaningful’ encounter and how such encounters might be planned for. Drawing on survey and interview data with full-time international students at University College Cork, Ireland, this study contributes to understanding how encounters are shaped by the construction and reproduction of particular identities in particular spaces, imbuing spaces with uneven power frameworks that produce diverse outcomes. Rather than identifying a singular ‘meaningful’ outcome of encounter as a potential panacea to the issues of exclusion and oppression, the contention here is to recognise a range of outcomes that are created by individuals in a range of ways. To define one outcome of encounter as ‘meaningful’ is to overlook the scale of intensity of diverse interactions and the multiplicity of ways in which people learn to live with difference.
Resumo:
People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.
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The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.
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Trees and shrubs in tropical Africa use the C3 cycle as a carbon fixation pathway during photosynthesis, while grasses and sedges mostly use the C4 cycle. Leaf-wax lipids from sedimentary archives such as the long-chain n-alkanes (e.g., n-C27 to n-C33) inherit carbon isotope ratios that are representative of the carbon fixation pathway. Therefore, n-alkane d13C values are often used to reconstruct past C3/C4 composition of vegetation, assuming that the relative proportions of C3 and C4 leaf waxes reflect the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plants. We have compared the d13C values of n-alkanes from modern C3 and C4 plants with previously published values from recent lake sediments and provide a framework for estimating the fractional contribution (areal-based) of C3 vegetation cover (fC3) represented by these sedimentary archives. Samples were collected in Cameroon, across a latitudinal transect that accommodates a wide range of climate zones and vegetation types, as reflected in the progressive northward replacement of C3-dominated rain forest by C4-dominated savanna. The C3 plants analysed were characterised by substantially higher abundances of n-C29 alkanes and by substantially lower abundances of n-C33 alkanes than the C4 plants. Furthermore, the sedimentary d13C values of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes from recent lake sediments in Cameroon (-37.4 per mil to -26.5 per mil) were generally within the range of d13C values for C3 plants, even when from sites where C4 plants dominated the catchment vegetation. In such cases simple linear mixing models fail to accurately reconstruct the relative proportions of C3 and C4 vegetation cover when using the d13C values of sedimentary n-alkanes, overestimating the proportion of C3 vegetation, likely as a consequence of the differences in plant wax production, preservation, transport, and/or deposition between C3 and C4 plants. We therefore tested a set of non-linear binary mixing models using d13C values from both C3 and C4 vegetation as end-members. The non-linear models included a sigmoid function (sine-squared) that describes small variations in the fC3 values as the minimum and maximum d13C values are approached, and a hyperbolic function that takes into account the differences between C3 and C4 plants discussed above. Model fitting and the estimation of uncertainties were completed using the Monte Carlo algorithm and can be improved by future data addition. Models that provided the best fit with the observed d13C values of sedimentary n-alkanes were either hyperbolic functions or a combination of hyperbolic and sine-squared functions. Such non-linear models may be used to convert d13C measurements on sedimentary n-alkanes directly into reconstructions of C3 vegetation cover.
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Buildings are responsible for approximately 30% of EU end-use emissions (Bettgenhäuser , et al, 2009) and are at the forefront of efforts to meet emissions targets arising from their design, construction and operation. For the first time in its history, construction industry outputs must meet specific energy targets if planned reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved through nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) (EC, 2010) supported by on-site renewable heat and power. Where individual UK dwellings have been tested before occupation to assess whether they meet energy design criteria, the results indicate what is described as an ‘energy performance gap’, that is, energy use is almost always more than that specified. This leads to the conclusion that the performance gap is, inter alia, a function of the labour process and thus a function of social practice. Social practice theory, based on Schatzki’s model (2002), is utilised to explore the performance gap as a result of the changes demanded in the social practice of building initiated by new energy efficiency rules. The paper aims to open a discussion where failure in technical performance is addressed as a social phenomenon.
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Adjoint methods have proven to be an efficient way of calculating the gradient of an objective function with respect to a shape parameter for optimisation, with a computational cost nearly independent of the number of the design variables [1]. The approach in this paper links the adjoint surface sensitivities (gradient of objective function with respect to the surface movement) with the parametric design velocities (movement of the surface due to a CAD parameter perturbation) in order to compute the gradient of the objective function with respect to CAD variables.
For a successful implementation of shape optimization strategies in practical industrial cases, the choice of design variables or parameterisation scheme used for the model to be optimized plays a vital role. Where the goal is to base the optimization on a CAD model the choices are to use a NURBS geometry generated from CAD modelling software, where the position of the NURBS control points are the optimisation variables [2] or to use the feature based CAD model with all of the construction history to preserve the design intent [3]. The main advantage of using the feature based model is that the optimized model produced can be directly used for the downstream applications including manufacturing and process planning.
This paper presents an approach for optimization based on the feature based CAD model, which uses CAD parameters defining the features in the model geometry as the design variables. In order to capture the CAD surface movement with respect to the change in design variable, the “Parametric Design Velocity” is calculated, which is defined as the movement of the CAD model boundary in the normal direction due to a change in the parameter value.
The approach presented here for calculating the design velocities represents an advancement in terms of capability and robustness of that described by Robinson et al. [3]. The process can be easily integrated to most industrial optimisation workflows and is immune to the topology and labelling issues highlighted by other CAD based optimisation processes. It considers every continuous (“real value”) parameter type as an optimisation variable, and it can be adapted to work with any CAD modelling software, as long as it has an API which provides access to the values of the parameters which control the model shape and allows the model geometry to be exported. To calculate the movement of the boundary the methodology employs finite differences on the shape of the 3D CAD models before and after the parameter perturbation. The implementation procedure includes calculating the geometrical movement along a normal direction between two discrete representations of the original and perturbed geometry respectively. Parametric design velocities can then be directly linked with adjoint surface sensitivities to extract the gradients to use in a gradient-based optimization algorithm.
The optimisation of a flow optimisation problem is presented, in which the power dissipation of the flow in an automotive air duct is to be reduced by changing the parameters of the CAD geometry created in CATIA V5. The flow sensitivities are computed with the continuous adjoint method for a laminar and turbulent flow [4] and are combined with the parametric design velocities to compute the cost function gradients. A line-search algorithm is then used to update the design variables and proceed further with optimisation process.
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Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.
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The Family Model – A transgenerational approach to mental health in families This workshop will provide an overview on The Family Model (TFM) and its use in promoting and facilitating a transgenerational family focus in Mental Health services, over the past 10 - 15 years. Each of the speakers will address a different perspective, including service user/consumer, clinical practice, education & training, research and policy. Adrian Falkov (chair) will provide an overview of TFM to set the scene and a ‘policy to practice’ perspective, based on use of TFM in Australia. Author: Heide Lloyd. The Family Model A personal (consumer/patient) perspective | United Kingdom Heide will provide a description of her experiences as a child, adult, parent & grandparent, using TFM as the structure around which to ‘weave’ her story and demonstrate how TFM has assisted her in understanding the impact of symptoms on her & family and how she has used it in her management of symptoms and recovery (personal perspective). The Family Model Education & training perspective Marie Diggins | United Kingdom PhD Bente Weimand | Norway Authors: Marie Diggins | United Kingdom PhD Bente Weimand | Norway This combined (UK & Norwegian) presentation will cover historical background to TFM and its use in eLearning (the Social Care Institute for Excellence)and a number of other UK initiatives, together with a description of the postgraduate masters course at the University Oslo/Akershus, using TFM. The Family Model A research perspective PhD Anne Grant | Northern Ireland Author: PhD Anne Grant | Ireland Anne Grant will describe how she used TFM as the theoretical framework for her PhD looking at family focused (nursing) practice in Ireland. The Family Model A service systems perspective Mary Donaghy | Northern Ireland Authors: PhD Adrian Falkov | Australia Mary Donaghy | N Ireland Mary Donaghy will discuss how TFM has been used to support & facilitate a cross service ‘whole of system’ change program in Belfast (NI) to achieve improved family focused practice. She will demonstrate its utility in achieving a broader approach to service design, delivery and evaluation.
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This master thesis proposes a solution to the approach problem in case of unknown severe microburst wind shear for a fixed-wing aircraft, accounting for both longitudinal and lateral dynamics. The adaptive controller design for wind rejection is also addressed, exploiting the wind estimation provided by suitable estimators. It is able to successfully complete the final approach phase even in presence of wind shear, and at the same time aerodynamic envelope protection is retained. The adaptive controller for wind compensation has been designed by a backstepping approach and feedback linearization for time-varying systems. The wind shear components have been estimated by higher-order sliding mode schemes. At the end of this work the results are provided, an autonomous final approach in presence of microburst is discussed, performances are analyzed, and estimation of the microburst characteristics from telemetry data is examined.
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Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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Provenance plays a pivotal in tracing the origin of something and determining how and why something had occurred. With the emergence of the cloud and the benefits it encompasses, there has been a rapid proliferation of services being adopted by commercial and government sectors. However, trust and security concerns for such services are on an unprecedented scale. Currently, these services expose very little internal working to their customers; this can cause accountability and compliance issues especially in the event of a fault or error, customers and providers are left to point finger at each other. Provenance-based traceability provides a mean to address part of this problem by being able to capture and query events occurred in the past to understand how and why it took place. However, due to the complexity of the cloud infrastructure, the current provenance models lack the expressibility required to describe the inner-working of a cloud service. For a complete solution, a provenance-aware policy language is also required for operators and users to define policies for compliance purpose. The current policy standards do not cater for such requirement. To address these issues, in this paper we propose a provenance (traceability) model cProv, and a provenance-aware policy language (cProvl) to capture traceability data, and express policies for validating against the model. For implementation, we have extended the XACML3.0 architecture to support provenance, and provided a translator that converts cProvl policy and request into XACML type.
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In this paper we use a dynamic model that we have developed for WCDMA capacity analysis using MATLAB and a GIS based planning tool, to estimate the capacity of a mobile system under different conditions like number of cells, propagation model, sectorization and handover margin.
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People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.
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Evolutionary algorithms alone cannot solve optimization problems very efficiently since there are many random (not very rational) decisions in these algorithms. Combination of evolutionary algorithms and other techniques have been proven to be an efficient optimization methodology. In this talk, I will explain the basic ideas of our three algorithms along this line (1): Orthogonal genetic algorithm which treats crossover/mutation as an experimental design problem, (2) Multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (MOEA/D) which uses decomposition techniques from traditional mathematical programming in multiobjective optimization evolutionary algorithm, and (3) Regular model based multiobjective estimation of distribution algorithms (RM-MEDA) which uses the regular property and machine learning methods for improving multiobjective evolutionary algorithms.
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Offshore structures with numerous applications in different environments throughout the world and used at different depths. Due to the expansion of marine industries, including offshore oil industry in Iran , particularly in the Persian Gulf region, in order to more accurately model these structures and to prevent incidents such as the Overturning of the platform serious damage to the South Pars Phase ١٣ was platforms, the use New Technic is essential technologies. One of the methods that are used in the construction of offshore wind turbines, using a pre-pile. In this method, a template is constructed with the dimensions specified in the workshop. After making templates using special vessels for placement in the desired location on the sea bed is carried, then the template is placed on the sea bed, Then, using a hammer for Pile Driving Operation Started Vibration hammer and fit the template of 3 or 4 piles of crushed within this template on the seabed . The next step piling, templates have been removed from the site And Jacket placed on piles. The system was installed on the deck on piles and Consequently Deck Load pile inserted on .It should be noted that the design of these types of platforms, base diameter of the pile diameter independent of the choice as one of the major advantages of this system is. This thesis examines a Template Fixed Platform in the oil Soroush Using the Pre-Piling and the Common Piling systems in the Persian Gulf were studied and the effect of different design compared to the Pre-Piling Platforms Persian Gulf were evaluated. The results suggest that Pre-Piling system compared with conventional systems piling in the Persian Gulf, as a more appropriate model structure and behavior Top Model economic efficiency is selected. It should be noted that all calculations and analyzes were performed using Software Abaqus.